Evan LongoriaAfter the Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar trade, the Rays are now projected to finish the 2015 season with an 83-79 record according to Fangraphs.com.

Based on the full projected standings, the Rays are the third-best team in the AL East. However, the Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees have nearly identical projected records.

The Red Sox are the favorite to win the division with 88 wins and are second in the AL, behind only the Mariners (89 wins).

Here is the full projected standings for the AL East with the difference between the projection and last year’s record in parentheses):

  1. Boston Red Sox, 88-74 (+17)
  2. Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78 (+1)
  3. Tampa Bay Rays, 83-79 (+6)
  4. New York Yankees, 82-80 (-2)
  5. Baltimore Orioles, 79-83 (-17)

The Rays are projected to score more runs this season, up from 3.78 runs per game to 4.00 runs per game, which would still be in the bottom-third of MLB.

The pitching staff is projected to regress a little bit, from 3.86 runs per game to 3.90 runs per game.



  1. Geoff Peterson says:

    How they figure the Red Sox improve by 17 games with no pitching? They have Four #4 starters and a #5

  2. OriginalTom says:

    Those projections also show Matt Moore getting 160 IP and Smyly getting only 121 IP so I would take them with a grain of salt.

    Also the Sox pitching is below average but they did add Sandoval, H Ramirez, Castillo, and they will have Betts for a full season so I expect they will be competitive in 2015.

  3. starmand says:

    Perhaps we should forget about the season and go straight from ST to the WS.

  4. Mr. Smith 1980 says:

    So we're looking at a 9 game differential from top to bottom of the AL East. Anytime projections have a division that close it leaves room for variance based on the amount of times they play one another and the fact that of those 54 games at least half are a coin flip.

    And, of course, one injury to a major piece and any team in the division can tumble from top to bottom thereby spoiling projections.

  5. Drew S says:

    I found this funny:


  6. Dave L says:

    Moving Zo and Yunel may mean the Rays are done with major moves, IMO the Yankees and Sox aren't done. The Orioles made all their big moves late last year although that may have been an aberration from their usual MO.

    The hot stove season is still on and there are still some moves to be made.

    Injuries will decide this years AL East. When Fangraphs starts accurately predicting who will go down and for how long then I will be really impressed and withold the salt

  7. FortMyersDave says:

    Like the other posters I take these projections with a grain of salt. Look at our Rays for example: every time they are predicted to go to the World Series they tend to fall short (like last year) and when the pundits on MLB and BSPN say that the Rays are probably going to be outclassed, out traded, outspent and finish several games behind the BoSox and Yankmes, well the Rays usually find a way into the playoffs as a wildcard or division winner. Injuries always play a key role in how a season develops; last year they were very detrimental to the Rays and the team found itself in a hole to deep to get out of. I look for the Rays to be competitive in the East this year and I suspect that one or two of the wildcards could come out of the division as well. A fast start, no 10 game losing streaks, decent effort from the set up guy and closer, more clutch hitting with RISP and less mind boggling managerial decisions based upon Joe Maddon's "non-logic" (what else can you call some of the irrational decisions joe made concerning lineups, use of relievers particularly Ballfour and Peralta in key spots, pitch hitters etc...) should get the Rays off to a better start in 2015 than 2014. Looking forward to Spring Training in Port Charlotte!


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