Wil MyersThe Rays appear to be close to trading Wil Myers to the San Diego Padres for prospects and the deal could happen at any minute.

This has left many wondering why the Rays would give up so quickly on a young player they gave up a lot to acquire and a player that seemed to have such a high ceiling just two years ago.

For the trade to make sense, you have to make two assumptions about Myers, two assumptions the Rays may have already made.

1. Wil Myers will never develop into a good defensive outfielder.

Myers has been a defensive liability for the Rays in his first two seasons and that goes against everything the Rays value.

Joe Maddon tried to challenge Myers to become a gold glove outfielder. But that was just a plea for him to stop being bad. It didn’t work.

If you assume Myers is never going to be a plus-defender — there is little to indicate he can be — then in the long run he is destined to be nothing more than a DH for the Rays who would prefer good defenders in the outfield to supplement their pitching.

If Myers is eventually going to be a DH, then it is better to move him now while he still has value.

 

2. Wil Myers will never develop 35-40 home run power.

You could live with Myers as a DH or even as a defensive liability if he is going to hit .280+ with 35-40 home runs every year.

This actually seems more plausible than Myers becoming a good defender. But so far, Myers has given little indication that he is going to make that kind of leap offensively.

Is it possible? Sure. But I would be less surprised if he hit .250 with 20 home runs. In fact, one projection system says Myers is most likely to do just that, hit .251 with 21 home runs.

In 2014, 38 players hit at least .250 with at least 21 home runs. So, it’s not like those kind of players grow on trees, but they are around.

 

That’s it.

If Myers can’t be a plus-defender and he is unlikely to become one of the top hitters in the AL, then it is better to sell now, sell high.

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7 Comments

  1. Dave L says:

    I agree this is more likely to be selling high as opposed than low. Its interesting that after 2 years the Rays came to same conclusion about Myers as George Brett did.

    The flash reaction from talking heads around the MLB network is that Myers is closer to the ROY Wil than the wrist busted struggling Myers of 2013 and that the Rays are crazy to trade him. I agree with trading a 24 yo Rays DH, it all depends on what we get. I bet someone else leaves as well with him

    Interestingly Wil projects (so far) as the starting CF as a Padre.

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  2. Dave L says:

    Ken R says we might be getting defensive OF Steven Sousa in a 3 way from the Nats plus some prospects.

    You guys arent going to like his offensive numbers but he flashes the leather.

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    • Craig Frank says:

      Hello Dave-In all due respect - Steven Souza was the Minor League MVP
      and has awesome power and can run for a big guy. I know we heard that about Myers as well but this guy has been stuck behind Harper and Werth
      and just needs the At Bats to hit 25 Homeruns easy! Myers was to lackadaisical for me ,like he didn't give a darn and defensively despite what some people say was a liability. We need some new fresh players
      to spark up this team- I could be wrong but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

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  3. STARMAND says:

    Fwiw. Love the "hold my beer---watch this!" gif.

    Or was it the "I'm up to level 52 on Halo" gif?

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  4. edward williams says:

    love the video of wil having a sleep apnea moment lol

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  5. mep645 says:

    This trade is a repeat of 2012 when the MLB folks thought the Rays crazy for trading BJ Upton. BJ had 190 K, bad attitude and didn't play well with the team.
    Rays gave up so many great players for Wil. MLB folks continue to ponder why the Rays are cutting him loose. They stated today that in 2014 that his health was not good. What planet are they on? Wil broke his wrist after running into center field area and crashing Jennings. It was his fault. I saw him play in Durham in May 2013 when he ran into center fielder Jason Boisois (can't spell his name sorry) and Jason was taken off the field on a stretcher and didn't play for a week.

    The acquisition of Wil was overly rosey from the beginning. He was thought to be the answer to all of the Rays issues from 2012. Maddon pampered him. There must have been some type of media warning not to discuss any misgivings of any kind about him. The above video is priceless. Falling asleep while playing. He didn't appear to see the ball in his territory. Remember the playoff games with Red Sox? The "I got it" moment? Rays lost the game and any post season. It will go down as one of the worst trades.

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    • edward williams says:

      correct me if I am wrong and if I am I apologize, but didn't bj upton leave here as a free agent. I don't remember. Maddon pampered everybody and I believe that was part of the problem with joe, and I probably will get slammed for this but it's true , there was no discipline on this team , sure people like zobrist and longo where veterans and where disciplined, but Joe didn't seem to do anything when it needed it, just look at Molina he would walk to first and nothing. Anyway these people are gone, so now we see what happens, it will be real interesting to see how the cub fans handle a snake or medicine man in their locker room.

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