Jake Odorizzi

Playing A Little Pepper

The Rays have outscored their opponents by 9 runs this year and have a losing record. That has not happened in the AL since 2009 Toronto Blue Jays. Typically run differential (Runs Scored – Runs Allowed) is a good indicator of how many games a team will win. A team’s expected number of wins can be calculated using run differential and the Pythagorean Win% formula. Typically, most teams are within a few wins of their expected total with many within 1 or 2. The Rays’ Pythagorean (expected) record is 74-71, four wins more than they have. If the Rays were 74-71, they would be 6 games back in the Wild Card instead of 10. They would also be just 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays for second place in the East. That’s better, but still not very good and still probably not good enough to make the playoffs.

Game Graph

[Will be up at game time]

Source: FanGraphs

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