This morning I wrote about just how devastating one loss can be at this time of year, especially in a head-to-head matchup with a team the Rays are chasing. In fact, according to*, the Rays had a 61.3% chance of making the playoffs yesterday. And today it has fallen all the way to 50.4%. That is a huge jump in one day.

At the same time, the win moved the Orioles from 40.1% up to 54.2%, moving ahead of the Rays for the first time since June.

Here’s a look at the AL East and each team’s chances of making the playoffs throughout the season…

And here is a closer look since August. 1…

* considers a team’s remaining schedule as well as how well they have been playing and simulates the rest of the season thousands of times.



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