In 2006 and 2007, we called this “No Chance In Hell.” In 2008 it was “The Rays Are Getting Warmer,” and 2009 it was “Rays Are In For A Dogfight” and in 2010 it was “One Tough Ass Division.” Last year it was “Taking A Step Back” (well, it was a little step)…

In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have released their “The 2012 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.

Here’s how it works…

RLYW uses five different projections systems. These systems (CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, PECOTA, ZiPS) predict what the stats of every player will look like based on things like past performance, age, experience, etc. RLYW then simulates the 2012 season thousands of times using each of these projected stats systems.

Here are the results. Actual stats from the 2007-11 seasons (in grey) are included for comparison. Notes on the results can be found below (see notes below for explanation of abbreviations in table)…

Notes on the projections…

  • RF=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed, DIV=how often during simulations the Rays won the division, WC=how often the Rays were a Wild Card team, Playoffs=how often the Rays made the playoffs, StD Wins=Range of wins within 1 standard deviaton during simulations
  • In 2010 and 2011, the CAIRO system came the closest to projecting the Rays’ actual win total. This year, the Rays averaged 91 wins in the CAIRO projections. That was second to the ZiPS projection (93 wins).
  • The Rays are projected to finish 2nd using the ZiPS projection, tied for 2nd with the CAIRO system, and in 3rd place with the other three systems. The Yankees are projected to win the division in all five systems. The Yankees average 94 wins in the five systems combined. The Red Sox average 91 wins.
  • The Rays are projected to score 58 runs more than last year, but also give up 69 more runs. Based on the Pythagorean Win%, scoring that many runs and giving up that many, should translate to 89.4 wins.


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