It is time for our annual Meta-Analysis of the Rays top prospects. In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

Our top prospects meta-analysis averages the rankings for the Rays’ top prospects and includes the top prospect rankings from Baseball (Keith Law), Baseball Prospectus, (Jonathan Mayo), Minor League Ball,, and an updated version of our own Trade Value Index.

Presenting the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects Meta-Analysis.


A few notes on the final rankings…

  • See below for notes on how the list was constructed.
  • Last year, the top 3 were unanimous. This year, everybody has Matt Moore number 1. And 6 of the 7 have Hak-Ju Lee second.
  • Once you get past the top two, there is a lot of disagreement. For example, Alex Torres is ranked anywhere from #2 to #7 and Chris Archer is as high as #3 and as low as #11. However, the top 10 is almost unanimous with only a few variations.
  • Drew Vettleson, Brandon Guyer, Parker Markel, Ryan Brett, and 2011 draftees Taylor Guerrieri, Mikie Mahtook, and Blake Snell are all new to the list year.
  • Jeremy Hellickson (#1 in 2011), Desmond Jennings (#3), Jake McGee (#5), and Robinson Chirinos (#12) are no longer eligible for the list. Josh Sale (#9) and Justin O’Connor (#10) fell off the list.
  • Hak-Ju Lee had the biggest jump, going from #7 in 2011 to #2 this year.
  • Five players on the list have already reached the triple-A level or higher. Seven players have never played above single-A.

A few notes on how the Meta-Analysis was constructed

  • We included rankings from Baseball (Keith Law), Baseball Prospectus, (Jonathan Mayo), Minor League Ball,, and an updated version of our own Trade Value Index.
  • Our Trade Value Index ranks players a bit differently. In addition to projecting how good a player will be, we also consider value to the organization and offers a mathematical approach to ranking the top prospects. For more information see the most recent TVI post.
  • The final list includes all players that appeared in the top 10 of at least one list.
  • Some players did not appear on every list. For players not on a list, we gave that player a ranking of 2 spots lower than the lowest ranked player in the list for the purpose of calculating the final average.

1 Comment

  1. brixology says:

    I would love to see the projected prospect array. Who will play where this year? Seems to me that there is a chance that the gap we have been worrying about may be filled by some of these guys progressing quickly. I guess the real question is: what will the Biscuits look like this year? Seems like the Bulls and the single A's will be pretty well stacked.


Leave a Comment