There are three types of team bloggers: 1) Pom-pom bloggers who never see fault in the team. These guys tend to piss off about one-third of the fan base; 2) Hater bloggers who only scream and yell. These guys piss off the other two-thirds of the fan base; 3) and then there are the realists, who just try to tell a story, whether it is good or bad. Those guys piss off everybody.

This is just a long-winded way of saying, “let’s talk about BJ Upton.” Dude had a hell of a weekend, no? And in the past week, we have seen Bartholomew Jedidiah Upton at his absolute worst (getting ejected and throwing a fit that will cost him two games) and his best (a walk-off home run versus the Blue Jays and 7-14 versus the Orioles with 8 RBI).

After 34 games, Upton is now on pace to hit .260 with 24 home runs and 105 RBI. That’s not a bad little statline. It actually compares favorably with his 2007 season when he hit .300 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI.

So let’s take a look at a couple of numbers that give us a better sense of exactly how well Upton is playing this year compared to previous seasons…

Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) is kinda like OPS, but better (.335 is average). and gives a nice all-around look at how well a batter is performing. Isolated Power (ISO) looks at a players raw power. It is simply Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average and is how many extra bases a player averages per at bat.

We see that Upton’s power is on par with 2010, and not far off of 2007. In other words, this suggests that Upton is 20-25 home run hitter. 2008 and 2009 now appear to be the exceptions, rather than the rule, as he battled shoulder injuries.

Upton’s wOBA is up this season to a very respectable .354. He is still well-off his 2007 season when his wOBA was .387. Yet, if he keeps this pace, he will have three seasons with a wOBA in the neighborhood of .350, with one season above that mark (2007) and one season well-below (2009). In other words, Upton is probably a .350 wOBA hitter.

In other words, Bossman is an above-average hitter with 20-25 home run power. He is not a superstar with the bat. But he is good. Couple that with his defense and speed and you’ve got a pretty decent player…that occasionally suffers brainfarts on the basepaths and in the field. And thank god he does that. If not, what would we complain about?



  1. Don says:

    As I said at beginning of year...motivation is everything....IF Upton has a GOOD 2011 he will be signed by another team for a significant amount($) more than what the Rays will pay him...IF he didn't have a good year they (Rays) have plenty of replacements..and Upton makes squat in 2012..
    Either way he won't go BJ get your contract and FINALLY help us while your still here....the POTENTIAL shows up after 6 years!

    • Jordi says:

      How in the world can you measure "motivation"? By how he looks in the batter's box? How he runs the bases? You can't. That's a terrible way to watch a player.
      Can you tell me what BJ's potential is? Is he the next Darryl Strawberry? That was the player I heard "potential" for more than anyone else ever.
      Is a pitcher less motivated if he only throws 92mph instead of 95? What if a bullpen pitcher doesn't sprint in from the pen?
      I don't get "potential".

      • Don says:

        Have you lived in a cave... ever since Bj has been here, EVERYONE said what "potential" he had even though he hit in the low .200s....I find it interesting after 5-6 years of sleep walking thru baseball games NOW that he is in a negotiation situation for a new (big) contract...he is hitting the ball...amazing..
        OF course give him this credit he went to Rod Carew this winter on his own..not waiting for Sheldon/Maddon for help in 2011 season...IT worked
        MOTIVATION($) is a wonderful thing! Hope he tipped Carew.......


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