PECOTA gives the Rays a 96.9% shot at making the playoffs. has the number at 91.3%. Sure the Rays are 30-11. But we are only one-quarter of the way through the season. Certainly those numbers are a little bloated, right?

In the Wild Card era, 12 American League teams have had a lead of at least 4 games on May 21. All 12 teams made the playoffs. The Rays lead right now (on May 21) is 5 games.

The criteria does not hold up as well in the National League. Eight teams have had at least a 4-game lead on May 21. Only 5 of those teams made the playoffs.

It is a long season. But we like the Rays chances.



  1. Chris says:

    I'm thinking of what Jon Gruden used to say with the Bucs. We've won the first quarter, 3-1. On to the second quarter of the season. If we can win each quarter, we'll make the playoffs.

    *I feel dirty for quoting Gruden*

  2. Hal says:

    How in the world did the Sawx and Seattle have double-digit leads on May 21?

  3. Brian H says:

    i started thinking playoffs durign the offseason

  4. Pipp says:

    Remember that last year, the Blue Jays rolled into the middle of May with a 27-14 record after an easy-ish early schedule. They ended the year at 75-87, 28 games out of first. I'm not camparing the teams talent-wise, but yeah, it's too early to think playoffs.


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