Over the first 24 games of the season, the Rays averaged 6.2 runs per game. In the last 13 games, that number is down to 3.9 as many of the Rays bats have gone cold at the same time.

One of our readers dug into the numbers a little deeper and may have a simple explanation. Take it away Thad

TW: Starting with Greinke on May 2 (13 games ago), if you look at collective statistics for the 13 pitchers (Ed. note: See full list at end of this post) faced (counting Lee and Vargas twice as though they were unique pitchers), it’s a pretty impressive collection of talent and statistics. It’s no wonder the Rays have hit a bit of a dry spell at the plate.

Collectively, the thirteen pitchers faced (again Lee and Vargas counted twice) have the following statistics for the 2010 season:

Last 13
3.55 ERA
1.18 WHIP
8.16 H/9
2.50 BB/9
6.66 SO/9

2.67 SO/BB

Not bad at all. Especially against AL averages (I don’t have AL avg stats for JUST starting pitchers, but you might; Ed. note: We do. The following numbers are for AL starting pitchers):

AL SP Avg.
4.24 ERA
1.35 WHIP
8.8 H/9
3.3 BB/9
6.6 SO/9
1.99 SO/BB

Digging a little deeper into the 13 pitchers, three stand out as relative outliers statistically (Kazmir, Rowland-Smith, and Sheets). The Rays pounded two of the three (Kazmir and Rowland-Smith). The only pitcher they failed to touch up that you could argue (at least statistically) they should have was Sheets. But if you take all three out of the averages the numbers are startling:

2.88 ERA
1.06 WHIP
7.62 H/9
1.93 BB/9
6.89 SO/9
3.56 SO/BB

That’s a collection of 10 solid starters with command that don’t give up much. And the Rays STILL went 9-4, with 9 of the 13 games on the road. When they faced mediocre pitching they feasted for the most part. They just haven’t faced much mediocre pitching in the past two weeks.

CG: Great stuff Thad. Thanks as usual.

Last 13 starting pitchers the Rays have faced:
Zach Greinke
Jason Vargas
Cliff Lee
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Gio Gonzalez
Ben Sheets
Dallas Braden
Joel Pineiro
Scott Kazmir
Jared Weaver
Doug Fister
Jason Vargas
Cliff Lee





  1. Beth says:

    With much less sophistication than Thad, I've been pondering the question of whether Rays hitters are that bad or opposing pitchers that good. For example, yesterday's game -- Cliff Lee is one of the most outstanding pitchers in the MLB over the past several years -- when your team fails to hit him, isn't that because he's exceptionally good?

    Our perception of what's going on is colored by our rooting interest. We see yesterday's game as: Rays had good pitching, great defense, but anemic hitting. But I suppose you could also say: Seattle had great pitching and weak hitting that failed to come through in the clutch.

    Anyway, we will hopefully, eventually, face some of these weaker pitchers and see if the bats can come alive. Tonight doesn't look too promising, and the Yankees series will be a difficult one. So where are these weak pitchers, anyway?

  2. rally ray says:

    it doesnt get any easier this week

  3. Thad says:

    I smell a 30-spot this weekend at Minute Maid against Myers, Rodriguez and Norris.

  4. ramedy says:

    Nice work, Thad!

  5. Joe D. says:

    Nice breakdown.

    Yank are our test this week to see if our pitching is that good or the teams we've been facing have been that bad at the dish.

    This years Yanks I think are what the Red Sox were to us in '08... We need to start getting the better of them, yanks have owned us the past few years even when when we've been good, the yankees have beat us around...

  6. Jason Hanselman says:

    Thanks for the hard work Thad, this is excellent.

  7. Alex says:

    If we do in fact face Wandy Rodriguez I would be pretty worried. Wandy and Pettitte do not look like good match ups. Wandy is great at home and Pettitte is a slow throwing, curve ball lobbing pitcher. The Rays are awful against slow throwing lefties and against curveballs. That will not be a pretty site.

    • Pharcyde says:

      The Rays are 12-5 against LH pitching. Any club would be happy with that.Percentage wise only the Twins are better @ 9-3. Pettitte could be interesting challenge as always. But, not as if we don't have an idea of what to expect. As for Wandy, rarely makes it out of the fifth. No power, less than 3 K's per outing. If he doesn't have ball movement we chase him early. I think we see Oswalt since he pitched Sunday. That one could be a concern. He's waved his no trade clause so he's pitching on display to get out of there. Will be fun to watch.

  8. MJ says:

    not bad thad. somewhat obvious but def easy to loose sight of when you know your guys aren't getting it done. I still think its apparent that some of our guys aren't swinging the bat like the have shown they are capable of.

    • Pistol says:

      Maybe it should have been obvious, but i think it is easy to see why it wasn't. Other than Greinke and Lee, it is not exactly a who's who of perennial all-stars.


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