Wednesday, August 13, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Rays Lose Throwback Game, Playing Like '02 Devil Rays
Oakland 2, Tampa Bay Rays 1. (Sorry. The standings/schedule widget called in sick today. Should be back tomorrow)

THE GOOD: Scott Kazmir. We really don't want to put Kaz here, but we are trying to find something positive from last night. Anything. And Kid K has been so bad, that last night actually seemed pretty good. But SWEET FANCY MOSES! How in the H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS does a "good" starting pitcher last only 5 innings when he only gave up 2 hits and 2 walks? He actually had three 1-2-3 innings, allowing only 5 baserunners, and yet he still needed 97 pitches. That doesn't even make sense.

THE BAD: That was as pathetic a loss as we have seen all year. Did the Rays play a throwback game without telling anybody? Give those guys some green unis and we'd swear that was the '02 Devil Rays. The Rays absolutely looked and played like a little league team last night. Exhibit A: Top of the 5th, the Rays have runners on first and second with no outs, down 2-1. Ben Zobrist makes the first out on what we assume was a safety squeeze. It was difficult to tell for sure. If it was a suicide squeeze, he took off too late. If it was a safety squeeze he took off too soon. If it was neither, Akinori Iwamura is an idiot. With Jason Bartlett now on second base, he was picked off for the second out. Mercilessly killing the rally. Exhibit B: Top of the 8th, 1 out, Willy Aybar on first base. Eric Hinske hits a lazy flyball to left field. Not good, but not terrible. Ahhh, but Aybar, who is now apparently so paranoid about not running hard, took off sprinting, rounding second and on his way to third. He was easily doubled-up, forgetting the number of outs. Exhibit C: The Rays were 2-11 with runners in scoring position, with 3 Ks.

THE TELLING: Gary Sheffield and Barry Bonds. Now that Carl Crawford will likely miss the rest of the regular season, we are more luke-warm to the idea of Bonds playing for the Rays, but we still put the chances of actually happening somewhere south of 1%. The other name making the circles now is Sheffield, who was placed on waivers by the Tigers. It would be very unlikely for the Rays to put in a claim on Sheffield, even if they would like to work out a trade. The risk for the Rays is for the Tigers to not pull Sheffield back from waivers. There is a good chance the Tigers would just let the Rays take Sheffield and his '09 salary of $14MM without asking for anything in return. If we were still in July, the Rays could work a trade in which the Tigers pay a good chunk of that salary....The Red Sox traded for veteran Paul Byrd, adding to an already deep pitching staff...

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Carl Crawford has elected to have surgery on his finger and will be sidelined 6-8 weeks. There are 6.5 weeks remaining in the regular season. Andrew Friedman said if everything went well, he could play again in the regular season...It sounds like there is a good chance CC would be available should the Rays make the playoffs. [Tampa Tribune]
  • The Rays are now hoping that Jason Bartlett, one of the weakest hitting DH's in baseball history, will be able to play SS this Friday. The Rays are also hoping that Evan Longoria, who did not have a broken wrist, but actually did, will be back in the lineup on Sept 1. [MLB]
When asked if Sept. 1 seemed like a reasonable projection for Longoria's return, Friedman answered: "Yeah, that seems reasonable. We'll re-X-ray it and go through that process again. I think it's very reasonable as we're sitting here today. But as everybody knows, bones heal at different paces, and it's too hard to say definitively at this point."
  • Joe Maddon plans to use Justin Ruggiano (LF) and Rocco Baldelli (RF) against lefties while Eric Hinske and Gabe Gross will play against righties. Papa Joe also said Willy Aybar will be at 3B most days, but we can also expect to see Ben Zobrist and/or Eric Hinske at the hot corner. [St. Pete Times]
  • Cliff Floyd says the biggest concern with all the injuries is the danger of the rest of the players trying to do too much. [Tampa Tribune]
"I just hope we don't all try to jump on that ship and go, 'It's me - let me be the man to take over,'" said Floyd. "No. Let's just stay within ourselves like we are and just keep it chill on the field...We all know how important those guys were. I mean, hell, you ain't going to replace them, no matter who you bring up or who you get, unless you go out and get one of the best players of the game. And you're still not replacing them because those guys are part of this team."
  • Andy Sonnanstine, who grew a beard in support of Rocco Baldelli, is now clean-shaven, as is Rocco, now that Rocco has finally returned to the roster...While Rocco's "Lumberjack" look will be missed, The Duke's fuzz will not. [Bradenton Herald]
  • Marc Lancaster agrees that Gary Sheffield does not seem like a good fit for the Rays. [Rays Report]

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Crawford And Dirtbag To DL; Rays Magic Number Sits At 40


THE GOOD: The loss of Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria to the DL was relieved a little on Sunday when Rocco Baldelli was activated from the DL and made the start in right field. He played the first 5 innings, before being replaced by Gabe Gross. It was Rocco's first game since May of '07 and he drove in a run, going 1-4...The Rays now have a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs. That is a big number folks. At the other end of the spectrum, the Yankees now have a 6.0% chance at a playoff slot. They have dropped 13.7% in the past week. We love a world in which the Rays are in the playoffs and the Yankees are not.

THE BAD: A Monday without "The Hangover". You can file your complaints at JetBlue.com.

THE TELLING: Willy Aybar will be the starting third baseman tonight and Justin Ruggiano will get the start in left...Sunday's win, the Rays' 71st of the season, set the franchise record for wins in a season...The Rays magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 40.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Carl Crawford, placed on the DL this weekend with an injured finger, had his finger examined by a hand-specialist. The Rays are expected to know more today. There are some concerns that he could be lost for the rest of the season. [MLB]
  • Evan Longoria was placed on the DL with a broken wrist after being hit bay a pitch last week. Initial x-rays were negative. A second-opinion revealed the break. He is expected to be out 2-3 weeks. [MLB]
  • Scott Kazmir made an adjustment to his mechanics that he hopes will help with his delivery tonight. [St. Pete Times]
  • The injuries to Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria certainly pose a challenge for the Rays, but trips to the DL are nothing knew for this squad and Andrew Friedman notes that the Rays did not get where they are this season because of any one player. [Bradenton Herald]
  • Martin Fennelly has a column about how tough the loss of Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria is going to be on the Rays...Does anybody else have a tough time reading Fennelly when he writes a column with 25 1-sentence paragraphs? We always get flashbacks to 9th grade English and bad poetry. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Last month David Ortiz predicted that the Rays lack of experience would catch up to them. This month he is singing a different tune. [Boston Herald]
  • Marc Topkin feels that a decision has already been made for David Price to be promoted to the Rays at some point this season. The question now is only whether he will be a starter or a reliever. Topkin notes that if Price is used as a starter (Price's preference) it could anger players in the clubhouse if Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine need to be bumped from the rotation. [St. Pete Times]
  • Larry Stone of the Seattle Times compares the '08 Rays to several other teams that enjoyed sudden success after years of losing. [Seattle Times]
  • Chad Bradford finally arrived to the Rays clubhouse in Seattle on Saturday afternoon after a whirlwind few days of cross-country flights. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Joe Maddon speaks about altering his approach this season to how he handles his players both behind the scenes and in the public eye. He notes that this year the team is in a position where he can make a difference with a more critical, disciplined approach. [Tampa Tribune]
  • A blogger interviews Cliff Floyd. [Eli's MLB Rumors]
  • Baseball Digest Daily calls the Rays one of "10 Things To Watch for the Remainder of the 2008 MLB Season." They are the only team on the list. [Baseball Digest Daily]
  • Marc Topkin has some notes about the '09 schedule (opening day, interleague, etc.). [St. Pete Times]
  • Mike Francesa of "Mike and the Mad Dog" in New York City, has been dismissive of the Rays all season, saying that he wouldn't acknowledge the Rays until August. One blogger wonders why Mike is still not talking about the Rays. [Mike and the Mad Blog]
  • Brittany Ghiroli tells how Grant Balfour only stumbled upon baseball as a child in Australia and says his fire and emotion come from his homeland and his father. [MLB]

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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Jonny Gomes Might Be Demoted To Durham


THE GOOD: Sometimes you watch a game and you just know early on that it is not the Rays' night. It is easier on the liver.

THE BAD: Andy Sonnanstine against the A's this season. The Rays have only played the A's 5 times and yet two of their worst losses are at the hands of the green and gold. In addition to last night's 8-1 drubbing, the A's got the beat-down on May 21 in Oakland to the tune of a 9-1 score. Sonny was the starting pitcher in both games. The only game worse than either of those was the 13-2 pounding just before the break in which we were thankfully in St. Lucia sans baseball. Oh yeah. Sonnanstine started that game also.

THE TELLING: Why was Houston Street brought into the game with an 8-1 lead? Might it be because he was being auditioned for the Rays brass? Managers will often bring closers into non-save situations if they have not been used in a while, but it had only been 3 days since Street last pitched. We counted 15 times this season in which Street had more than 2 off-days. The only explanation is that the A's wanted to make sure that Andrew Friedman and Co. got a first-hand look at Street before the trade deadline.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Jason Bartlett will likely be activated after today's afternoon game. It looks like Ben Zobrist will not be demoted after all which means Jonny Gomes could be the odd-man out. That would leave Zobrist or Willy Aybar to play right field against lefties. [Bradenton Herald]
  • And yet Marc Lancaster tells us that some in the organization think that Jonny Gomes can be the right handed bat that the Rays desparately need against lefties. [Tampa Tribune]
  • As per our assertion in yesterday's "Hangover" that Grant Balfour screamed "fastball!" to Dioner Navarro in the 8th inning of Monday's game...Someone close to the team told us that Balfour says that he yelled "Fuck!" and not "Fastball!". We went back and looked at the tape and it looks to us as if there are either two syllables or two words. So, either Balfour is thinking of a different situation or he does yell the F-bomb with a second word attached. [Rays Index]
  • Outs Per Swing is doing a great job keeping up with all the Rays trade rumors...Normally we would be more on this stuff, but we would be surprised if the Rays make a move for anybody significant. Maybe a middle reliever and maybe a utility infielder. The rest is just speculation because the Rays are in contention and have a deep farm system. [Outs Per Swing]
  • Brittany Ghiroli points out that the Rays have still been able to score runs with several top hitters struggling thanks to their speed on the basepaths. [MLB]
  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports gives the Rays 2/5 odds of making the playoffs. That is 3rd in the AL behind the Angels (a lock at this point) and the Red Sox. [Yahoo! Sports]
  • ESPN is running one of their silly "Sports Nation" specials looking at the all time best player for each team. They are taking votes for each team. Follow the link for your chance to vote for the Rays' all-time greatest player...It is pretty sad when Roberto Hernandez is considered one of the five best Rays in franchise history. And it might seem silly, but one could make an argument that Evan Longoria is already the best player in franchise history. [ESPN]
  • Reader J.J. pointed us to this auction for the game-used uniforms and equipment from the Rays turn-back-the-clock game recently in which the Rays donned the threads of the St. Pete Pelicans. [MLB]

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Thursday, June 26, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Carl Crawford Is Starting To Look Familiar


THE GOOD: The extra-base hits are coming more frequently for Carl Crawford. Last night CC drove in 5 with a pair of home runs. He has 5 extra-base hits in his last 7 games after only having 1 in the 10 previous games. He also has 6 multi-hit games in his last 10...Every member of the Rays batting order scored a run in the Rays' 10-run 5th inning.

THE BAD: Using headlines like "Rays' 10-run fifth fuels 15-3 win over Marlins" or "Rays ride power surge" or "Rays' 10-run 5th fuels easy win over Marlins" one day after the Rays and Marlins played a carbon-neutral game. Not to mention those headlines are just unoriginal...The Rays drew 9 walks but still struck out 10 times. The Rays are 4th in the AL with 551 Ks...With Jason Bartlett away to be with his expecting wife, Ben Zobrist made the start at short, fresh off the IL disabled list. In the first two innings he made 2 errors.

THE TELLING: This was James Shields' first win in 8 starts. Apparently he just needed a little run support...Has Ben Zobrist changed his stance since we saw him last? He is very upright, with an awkward lean that we don't recall...The Rays now have a 4 game lead in the Wild Card race over the A's. Their magic number is 82.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • The Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo of the Week will be this afternoon for the final game of the Citrus Series with the Marlins.
  • We were a few days late, but we finally updated the Cork-Board in the sidebar. We now have updated rosters/lineups for Hudson Valley and Princeton. [Cork-Board]
  • We realize that with so many topics in the "Pepper" feature it may be difficult to discuss just one or two in the comments. So we are now taking a selection of those topics and will start individual discussions on the RAYSHEADS Facebook page. As usual, feel free to comment on the post directly, but keep in mind that we do have the Facebook page if you want a more in depth discussion of just one of the topics. [RAYSHEADS on Facebook]
  • Carlos Pena will play in a minor league game tonight for Vero Beach. [Rays Report]
  • DRaysBay has an open letter to Joe Maddon questioning his move to leave Troy Percival in the game on Tuesday night...Of course Percy got the save even though he walked 4 batters. What is that old saying? "Hindsight is 20-2,000"?? [DRays Bay]
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com has listed Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman as the first half's "Best performance by a general manager and manager". [ESPN]
Maddon creates a productive environment for young players by giving them the freedom to fail, provided their mistakes are aggressive. He's shown he won't back down from the Yankees or the Red Sox, no matter how daunting their mystique, and lately it seems he's had a knack for pushing the right buttons...Friedman is building an impressive body of work with assistance from consigliere Gerry Hunsicker. With the exception of Josh Hamilton's departure through the Rule 5 draft, it's hard to find a blemish on his résumé. In the past year alone, Friedman has made moves to fortify the Tampa bullpen (Troy Percival), defense (shortstop Jason Bartlett), starting rotation (Garza) and bench (Gross and Willy Aybar). In Tampa these days, nobody is lamenting the departures of Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes...Three years into his tenure with Tampa Bay, Friedman's résumé is starting to look like one giant heist fest.
  • The Rays and Pirates will wear Negro League throwback unis on Saturday night. The Rays will sport the threads of the Jacksonville Redcaps. [UNIWATCH]
  • We are not the only fans that are a miffed by BJ Upton's play in the outfield recently. Rays the Stakes says Upton is the sole inhabitant of "Lazy-Town". [Rays the Stakes]
  • Bugs and Cranks calls in the experts to analyze the fuzz on Andy Sonnanstine's face. [Bugs and Cranks]

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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Evan Longoria Can Marry Our Daughter*


THE GOOD: There is a video on YouTube in which Dwayne Staats compares Evan Longoria defensively, to Mike Schmidt, who won 10 gloves. But we wonder if Schmidt ever made a play to win a game the way Dirtbag did last night. Playing deep, with the tying run on third, Reed Johnson tried to bunt his way on first pushing the ball just to the left of the mound. Longoria ran in, barehanded the ball and made an off-balance throw to first base that was scooped on one bounce by Willy Aybar. Game over...What a top if the 9th. What a great catch heading face first into the wall, by Justin Ruggiano in left field for the first out. That out was just the first play that may have saved the game. Later on was not the best time in the world for Dioner Navarro's second passed ball of the season as it lead to a run to make it 3-2, but another passed ball took a Rays bounce off the backstop to hold the runner at third and saved the lead...Scott Kazmir did not allow a hit until 1 out in the 5th inning, despite not having his best stuff...The Rays are lucky that the Rays tank beyond the right-center field wall is shatterproof as Evan Longoria's solo home run to lead off the 6th went off the side glass...With 2 outs in the top of the 7th and a runner on second, Dioner Navarro threw out Reed Johnson trying to steal third. It even looked like Johnson got a bit of a shuffling lead before the pitch and he was still thrown out to end the inning...In the bottom of the 7th, a ground ball that would have been a single up the middle hits the pitching rubber and jumps straight up in the air. The pitcher tried to field the ball and throw to first. Aki was safe by a mile, but the throw went into the right field corner and Aki was on third to lead off the inning. Aki would later score what ultimately would be the decisive run.

THE BAD: Scott Kazmir may have not allowed a hit until 1 out in the 5th, but he would only record 1 more out after that, as he was pulled with 2 outs in the 5th. Yes the bullpen is better, but the Rays cannot afford too many nights with the bullpen having to throw 4+ innings...BJ Upton's stolen base to end the first inning wasn't bad on paper. With 2 outs, he has to try and get into scoring position. But for Upton to be thrown out by 10 feet was pretty bad...Bases loaded in the 3rd with only 1 out. A dribbler in the mound by BJ Upton led to a force at the plate followed by a strikeout by Eric Hinske and the Rays couldn't score...In the 7th, the Rays had 5 batters reach base and only scored 1 run including the second runner thrown out at home in the game.

THE TELLING: The attendance for last night's game was 31,607. We are just guessing, but that seems like it would be a record for a non-home opener, non-Red Sox, non-Yankees, weekday contest...Carl Crawford will be back on the field tomorrow night after completing his suspension. Aki Iwamura and Edwin Jackson have both appealed their suspensions. Jackson will make his next start on Saturday...

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • With Andy Sonnanstine and Carlos Zambrano on the hill tonight, there will only be one batter in either lineup that has faced the opposing pitcher. Carl Crawford faced Zambrano and struck out in the '04 All-Star game. [MLB]
  • Carlos Pena expects to be back in the lineup on the next roadtrip. [Tampa Tribune]
  • A Cubs blog takes some shots at Joe Maddon for his love of wine and Dr. Seuss, and uses these as examples as to why it is easier to manage in the AL...True story: We once had an Ecology class in college in which all the lessons were based on either Dr. Seuss or Monty Python. Best. Class. Ever. [The Ted Lilly Fan Club]
  • Rays the Stakes makes a strong case for Aki Iwamura to make the All-Star squad. [Rays the Stakes]
  • Maybe they should...But they won't. [DevilRays Locker]
  • Badsnap makes a strong, in depth case for Ken Griffey Jr coming to the Rays. [BADSNAP]
  • According to Vegas oddsmakesrs, the Rays are now the 6th favorite to win the AL, behind Boston, LA, New York, Chicago and Cleveland. [LA Times]
*If we ever have one

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Monday, June 16, 2008

[ANDY SONNANSTINE]
Andy Sonnanstine Struggles When He Changes Arm Angles
In the beginning of May, Andy Sonnanstine's record was 4-1 and we noticed that his emergence this season may have been due at least in part to a change in his mechanics. Specifically, Sonnanstine was no longer using different arm angles, one of his trademarks.

Here is the plot we showed you earlier comparing Sonnastine's release point in '07 (left) to his release point in his first six starts of '08 (right).

As you can see, the pitches on the right ('08) are much more clustered and more over the top.

Since we ran that post Sonny has struggled at times. We decided to go back and look again at Sonny's Pitchf/x data. The results were surprising.


Here we have added the updated 2008 release point data to the right of the previous two clusters (2008a represents Sonnanstine's first 6 starts of '08; 2008b represents all of Sonnanstine's '08 starts).

A couple of points stand out...
  1. Sonnanstine is once again changing arm angles on his pitches, specifically his fastball and his splitter.
  2. The varying arm angles differ in '08 as compared to '07. The different release points appear to be spread more horizontally and he is not dropping his arm as he was in '07.
Now let's see how these changes have translated to The Duke's stat lines...

The first (2007) and third (2008-starts 7-14) lines are when Sonnanstine was using different arm angles. The middle line represents when Sonnanstine was not varying his release point.

Once again, a couple of points stand out...
  • Sonnanstine's stat lines are very similar when he is changing arm angles.
  • Sonnanstine clearly strikes out more batters when he changes arm angles, but he also gives up considerably more hits and his ERA is higher.
  • His walk rate appears consistent whether he is changing arm angles or not.
  • Sonny works deeper into games when he is not changing arm angles.
We must point out that we only have a small sample size of starts without changing arm angles (6 starts). Also, we don't have a game-by-game breakdown, so we cannot be certain when Sonnanstine started varying his release point again, but we do know that it was after his first 6 starts of '08.

Still, there appears to be a very clear trend: Andy Sonnanstine strikes out more batters when he changes arm angles, but he is a better overall pitcher when he does not.

Sonnanstine No Longer Changing Arm Angles [Rays Index]

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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Rays Open 3-Game Set In Fenway


THE GOOD: All 3 AL East Teams in action last night lost. Both the Sox and the Yankees lost last night.

THE BAD:

THE TELLING: Even if the Rays lose 2 of 3 in this series, the Rays would still be in first place in the AL East...David Ortiz went on the DL and will miss this series, and will be out at least a month, meaning he will miss the next Rays-Red Sox series at the end of this month. There are even rumblings that Big Papi's injury could be season-ending.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • Is our push to get Carl Crawford voted to the All-Star team working? CC moved up a spot to #12 on the list. Remember he only need finish in the top 3. [Rays Report]
  • Looks like this week's Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo will be Thursday night. There is a small chance we will have to move it to Wednesday night. We will make another announcement later on to confirm the day.
  • Scott Kazmir was named AL Pitcher of the Month. [Yahoo! Sports]
  • just to show how Sox fans are not taking this series seriously, the opening line of this Boston Globe piece: "For now, it ranks more as novelty than high drama, this notion of the Red Sox playing a showdown series in June against the Tampa Bay Rays". [Boston Globe]
  • One blog nominates first base coach George Hendrick for "Most Interesting Man in the World". They even found a picture of him, which is apparently not an easy thing to do. [The Place To Be]
  • Jim Caple of ESPN.com has had enough of "Red Sox Nation" and set out to figure out exactly when the Bandwagon started filling up. It is refreshing to know that the Trop isn't the only park where the home team's fans are outnumbered by the green and pink hat wearing newbies. [ESPN]
  • Baseball Prospectus does a Q&A with Andy Sonnanstine. It is hidden behind their password wall if you don't have an account. It is an interesting read in that Sonnanstine still considers himself a pitcher that throws from different arm angles even though we showed you a while back that he is not doing that this year. [Baseball Prospectus]

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Monday, June 02, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Rays Magic Number For Playoffs Now Sits At 100



THE GOOD: In the top of the 5th Andy Sonnanstine somehow survived to only allow 1 run to score. After the 1 run scored, the Sox had 1st and 3rd with no outs and could not put another run on the board. Gabe Gross would tie the game in the bottom half of that same inning with a triple...We have pounded Jonny Gomes and his defensive struggles, so it is only fair that we acknowledge the sliding grab to retire the leadoff hitter in the 7th with the score tied. Not only did he make the catch, but with Gomes running straight in, he slid for the ball with his body perpindicular to the path of the ball instead of diving head-first for the ball. By sliding in the manner that he did, Gomes was positioned to block the ball with his body had he missed the catch. That would have kept the hit to a single. If he dives and the ball gets by him, the best-case scenario is a man on third with no outs...JP Howell in the 10th inning. After a bit of bad luck led to a broken bat double to lead off the inning, Howell battled back and got the next 3 batters, including the final out on a full count, called 3rd strike.

THE BAD: We really hate the day-before-an-off-day lineup. No Carl Crawford. No Dioner Navarro. No Cliff Floyd...The double by Jim Thome to lead off the 10th was all BJ Upton's fault and he is lucky it did not cost the Rays the game. He lolligagged in on the blooper, assuming Aki Iwamura was going to either catch the ball or field it and then probably assumed Thome would just stop at first...Gabe Gross' home run celebration helmet toss in which the helmet came down right on the scrum at home plate nearly concussing one or more of his teammates.

THE TELLING: Well, it wasn't a sellout and it wasn't 28,000, but the Rays did draw 25,000 yesterday, we feel that Marc Lancaster should still eat a little crow for suggesting that the only reason the Rays drew 30,000 on Saturday night was due to the concert and the free trucker hats. Lancaster said "[Saturday's attendance] does not constitute a sudden uptick in support for the first-place Rays...Now, if they get 28,000 in here Sunday, I’ll stand corrected. But I’ll also believe it when I see it." 25,000 for a non-divisional opponent is a good draw for the Rays. The Rays are now 5-1 in extra inning games...While the Rays magic number for the division is 104, the magic number for the Wild Card is only 100...The Rays are now 8-4 in Andy Sonnanstine's 12 starts. The Rays are 5-1 in Scott Kazmir's 6 starts, 5-4 in Matt Garza's starts, 6-5 in Edwin Jackson's starts and 8-4 in James Shields starts.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • Joe Maddon will not skip any pitchers with the off-day today. That means Scott Kazmir will not get a start in Boston. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Thursday's series finale in Boston will begin at 6:05 PM due to the Celtics playoff game. [St. Pete Times]

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

[SHOWER-SHOE FUNGUS]
Playing A Little Pepper: Chicago White Sox
ODDSMAKERS

Trading David Price to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols?
We understand the temptation. The Cardinals are in rebuilding mode and are pitching-thin. The Rays have a set rotation, and a top pick that so far appears to be toying with minor league hitters. A Pujols in the Rays lineup would instantly make them a legit World Series contender. In addition, Pujols is the type of player that would brings fans to the Trop. And while we believe the Rays still have some flexibility in the payroll, are they willing to add a player that makes $16MM a season over the next 3 years? In today's market, that is a bargain, but it still isn't cheap. And they still owe Carlos Pena $18MM over the next 2 years. Not to mention, can the Rays give up already on Price who looks like an Ace in the making?...0.1%
TOSS UP

If Troy Percival goes on the DL...Grant Balfour, Juan Salas or Kurt Birkins?
The Rays have an open spot on the 40-man roster, so the fact that Balfour is not on the roster should have little bearing. Salas has been solid since his first outing of the year in Durham, but he still only has 6 games and 11.2 innings under his belt since finally resolving his Visa issues. This is basically his spring training and we have to imagine the Rays will like to get him a couple of more weeks in Durham before a call-up. Birkins was solid for the Rays when he made 6 appearances (0.90 ERA) earlier this season, but he has been knocked around in Durham since his demotion (9.45 ERA), and the Rays already have 2 lefties in the bullpen. That leaves Balfour who is toying with IL batters so far. 23.2 ip, 5h, 10bb, 39Ks, 0.38 ERA...GRANT BALFOUR
If Andy Sonnanstine is relegated to the bullpen at any point...Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann or David Price?
Since the beginning we have been very bearish on Price. Everything the Rays say and do suggests that it is longshot for Price to make his big league debut before 2010(!) much less sometime this season. But after seeing him mow down FSL batters in his first 2 starts, it is very clear that he is the real-deal. Still, the Rays are going to be patient. Last week we said 10 starts at Vero Beach. We are sticking to it, but it will be less before it is more. As for Niemann, he has battled a bit of shoulder soreness and if the Rays need a starter in the next couple of weeks, it will not be Niemann as he was limited to 75 pitches his last outing. That means Hammel if there is a need in the next few weeks, but in the long-run we have to believe that Hammel's career as a starting pitcher with the Rays is over. That means Sonny's job is safe, at least until Niemann is ready...Jeff Niemann
OVER/UNDER

15 wins for Matt Garza:
He has about 20 starts left in the season, assuming he can stay healthy. Garza seemed to finally be putting it all together in his last 2 starts. His season-high strikeouts prior to last night was 4. Last night he had 10. This one is going to be close. We have to assume there will be a few bumps in the road along the way, but this kid has nasty stuff. In fact he probably has the best stuff on the staff, which is saying a lot. It has always just been a question of location and not being so cocky with the fastball. He is going to end up somewhere within the 14-16 range. But if we have to pick one or the other...OVER
20 games for Rocco Baldelli this season:
There were reports earlier this week with quotes from Baldelli that he is still planning on playing for the Rays at some point this season. Rocco has a little extra incentive now to get on the field. After the Rays bought out his 2009 option, he is now scheduled to be a free agent after the season. Will any team be willing to offer a major league contract to Rocco if he spends the entire season on the DL? The most-likely scenario has Rocco signing a incentive-laden, minor league deal with the Rays. But keep in mind that the doctors still haven't pinpointed the problem. And if Rocco does attempt a comeback he will have to spend at least 2-3 weeks on a minor league rehab assignment to show that he can at the very least DH against lefties. Until we hear a confirmed diagnosis and a scheduled rehab assignment, we are very skeptical...UNDER
2.5 wins for Rays in this 4-game set versus the White Sox:
Who woulda thunk that this would be a battle of first-place ballclubs at this point in the season. In fact, if the playoffs started today, these two teams would face each other in the first round of the playoffs...After winning 8 straight games, the Sox are only 3-3 in their last 6 games, having dropped 2 of 3 to the Angels at home and winning 2 of 3 in Cleveland. The White Sox are winning with their starting pitching, sporting 4 starters with ERAs below 4, although only 3 of those will face the Rays. At the same time, the Rays get 2 of their big 3 in this series. The biggest question mark is Andy Sonnanstine. We just don't know which Sonny will show up. The good news is he is facing Mark Buehrle in the 4th game, and he has been bad all year. Still. At this point we have zero confidence in The Duke. If that game is an L, can we count on W's from Edwin Jackson, James Shields and Scott Kazmir? That is tough. This is a good squad, and we know Ozzie Guillen will be fired up...UNDER

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Andy Sonnanstine Deserves All The Blame He Receives


THE GOOD: The Rays deserved 3 losses for last night. Thank goodness they only get one in the standings. And because everybody else in the division lost except for the O's, the Rays maintain their half-game lead in the division.

THE BAD: DO NOT try to feed us this pile of crap that Andy Sonnanstine was "better than score indicates". That's you Roger Mooney (by the way, we are still waiting for you to explain why the Rays did not like the Sports Illustrated cover). Just because 5 of the runs were unearned DOES NOT mean that Sonnanstine has no responsibility. It is not as if Evan Longoria committed 5 errors. Longoria did not give up the 2 hits before the error, or the 3 hits after the error. And as the Rangers broadcast crew mentioned last night, that error could have very easily been ruled a base hit. The ball had a wicked side-spin on it and took an angled hop. In fact the only player that deserves any blame close to what Sonny deserves is Eric Hinske. In the first inning, he played a single into a double by taking a crappy, slow angle and letting a ball get by to the wall. The next batter followed with an RBI double. In the second inning, Hinske once again played a single into a double by letting a ball get by him to the wall. Later in the game, while a valiant effort, Hinske dove for a ball that went off his glove. Hinske is giving the opposition extra bases on an almost nightly basis. How much more of this can Joe Maddon take?...And of course, then there was the bottom of the 3rd inning, with 2 runners on in a 5-run game, Carlos Pena got ahead 3-0 only to end up striking out...And of course, there was the 2-on, no outs, double play from Eric Hinske that killed a rally in the 6th, and the no outs double play from Carl Crawford that killed another one in the 7th inning.

THE TELLING: Her Rays has a much more insightful recap, if you are a masochist.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • The first vote totals were released and only Carl Crawford, BJ Upton and Carlos Pena are listed among the leaders. C'mon people. If we don't vote for CC, nobody will! [Rays Report]
  • Joe Maddon says that Willy Aybar will rejoin the Rays when he comes off the DL. Marc Lancaster indicates that could happen in time for the White Sox series tomorrow...We will get to the rest of the garbage in this piece later. [Tampa Tribune]
  • The Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo of the Week will be this afternoon with game 3 of the Rangers series and will be held right here.
  • Rocco Baldelli stated once again that he once to play for the Rays this season. Joe Maddon says the team is "cautiously optimistic". In other words, nothing new here. [MLB]
  • How bad is it right now for the Mets? One of the more popular Mets blogs is now following the Rays...maybe. [Mets Geek aka Rays Geek]

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Thursday, May 22, 2008

[THE HANGOVER]
Rays Finish Tough Road Trip 3-3


THE GOOD: If you would have offered us 3-3 on a tough two-city road trip, we would have signed for that. So, despite yesterday's awful performance, the Rays are still playing well. Being 2 back in the division is more of an indication of how well the Sox are playing right now.

THE BAD: Bizarro Andy Sonnanstine. Duke retired the first 8 batters, but after that, A's hitters were 9-18 with a walk, 4 doubles and 2 home runs...Jonny Gomes career as an outfielder took a major hit yesterday. There were 2 doubles that hit off the base of the outfield wall that probably should have been cought. He also had trouble fielding a ball on the ground a couple of times and missed at least 1 cutoff man. If Sonny wasn't so hittable, we would suggest that the outcome would have been different if Carl Crawford had not been given a day off...Offense managed onle 3 hits, and none from the 2-6 hitters.

THE TELLING: The Rays still have a 2 game lead in the Wild Card over Baltimore, which means this is a big series coming up this weekend. The Rays have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the O's and reveal to the rest of the league that Baltimore is a pretender, not a contender.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA...
  • Don't forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven't voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • Tampa Bay Rays' merchandise sales have risen 70% so far in '08. Of course a 70% increase of very little is still very little as the Rays still rank 29th in baseball, ahead of only the Toronto Jays. [St. Pete Times]
  • Bill Chastain has a few quotes from other teams in the AL East and how they view the '08 Tampa Bay Rays. [MLB]
  • Joe Henderson takes a closer look at the Rays vastly improved defense and tells us something that the rest of baseball has been saying since the middle of April: The Rays turnaround in '08 is due in large part to the improved fielding. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Do the Rays have the best 1-2 starting pitchers in the AL East? Well, the Red Sox would never in a million years trade Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka for James Shields and Scott Kazmir. [DRays Bay]
  • Rays Digest breaks down the early-season contenders for Rookie of the Year. [Rays Digest]

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