The Rays won yesterday’s arbitration hearing with Jeff Niemann, who will now make $2.75 million in 2012. The Giraffe had been seeking $3.2 million. The Rays have never lost an arbitration case, moving to 6-0 overall, and 5-0 since Andrew Friedman was named VP of Baseball Operations.

Niemann’s 2012 salary lowers the Rays 2012 projected payroll to $64.3 million. This of course means more money for World Series rings!

The crew at tonight’s Tampa Bay Lightning Game caught a familiar face in the stands, Evan Longoria. Still hasn’t found his cap. But it is nice to see that he has gone back to the shaved head.

Party on…

Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!

OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.

To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.

Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…

Notes on the above charts…

• James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
• Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
• Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
• Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
• Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
• Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.

One year ago on Rays Index we were shocked to see that old school Devil Rays gear was now hip.

So Now Old School Devil Rays Gear Is Cool? [Rays Index]

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Dan Johnson has signed a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox.

Johnson, who only has 37 career hits with the Rays, is of course best known for hitting some of the biggest home runs in Tampa Bay Rays history. So if the Rays need a miracle in October this year, they may have to give up some cash to the White Sox to bring back The Great Pumpkin.

Former Rays pitcher Matt Garza had his home broken into recently. And according to the Fresno Bee, among the items stolen was his American League championship ring valued at $30,000.

That certainly sucks. And if we were leading the investigation, we would start with Al Reyes, who was on the ’08 Rays but was cut in August and never pitched again.

But this story brings up something that we never considered before: The Rays spent a lot of money on those rings.

A lot of this is speculation, but we do know a few things for certain…

We know that the rings are now valued at $30,000. And we know the team handed out 46 of the rings during the ring ceremony in 2009. However, at that time, only 23 players received rings and at least 25 player rings would have been made. So lets say 48 of the $30,000 rings were produced.

But we’re not done. The Rays produced 480 rings total for [Read More...]

Evan Longoria says he has never regretted signing his team-friendly contract (via Marc Topkin of TampaBay.com).

“I can honestly say that I’ve never regretted doing it. I can look at myself in the mirror and say that I made the right decision. You never know, who knows, one or two years in I might’ve hurt myself and not been the player that I am today.”

These comments come on the heels of some false rumors that were being spread on Twitter that Longoria was upset and wanted to be traded. We ignored the report because the source was not credible, but some in the local media actually addressed the rumors.

Anyway, our only problem with Longoria’s comments is that the hypothetical no longer applies. We do know that Longoria did not get hurt “one or two years in.”

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• The Rays season opener against the Yankees will be carried on the MLB Network.
  
• Pat Burrell has officially retired. Of course, some in the Bay Area would say he tossed in the towel about three years ago. [USA Today]
• Would Peyton Manning sign with the Bucs? [JoeBucsFan.com]

Both Justin Ruggiano and Russ Canzler, players that were removed from the 40-man roster to make room for recent acquisitions, now find themselves out of the organization all together.

Ruggiano, who was designated for assignment after the signing of Carlos Pena, chose to become a free agent rather than accept an assignment to triple-A. Ruggiano hit four home runs for the Rays in 46 games last year. He was the final piece in the 2006 trade that sent Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson to the Dodgers for Dioner Navarro and Jae Weong Seo.

In addition, Canzler, who was designated for assignment to make room for Jeff Keppinger, has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for cash. Canzler would have likely chosen to become a free agent anyway.

In the latest, “Joe Maddon will sign an extension soon, we swear” story, Marc Topkin reports that the two sides are closing in on a three-year extension.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Carlos Pena turned down an $8 million offer from the Indians (he took a $7.25M deal with the Rays). [Cleveland.com]
• JB Long interviewed Matt Joyce recently for Bay News 9. Admits he was not looking forward to playing first base, so he was happy the team signed Carlos Pena. [Video]
• Rocco Baldelli is happy and comfortable with the way his career ended. [HeraldNews.com]
• Here are some pics from a recent fundraising event Jeremy Hellickson attended at his high school. [Des Moines Register]
• BRaysBall Talk looks at how to survive FanFest. [BRaysBall Talk]
• Rays Colored Glasses takes a look at the history of professional baseball in the Bay Area prior to the Rays. [Part 1, Part 2]

Four years ago on Rays Index we noticed that Peter King showed up at the Super Bowl wearing a Rays cap.

Peter King Jumps On The Tampa Bay Rays Bandwagon [Rays Index]