The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

RAYS 5, RED SOX 3

THE GOOD: Red Sox Roadkill. According to CoolStandings.com the Red Sox still have a 6.2% shot at making the playoffs. That’s being generous. In reality, the Red Sox season ended this weekend. Dan Johnson put them on life-support and Carl Crawford and James Shields pulled the plug last night. Even if the Rays go just 16-16 in their final 32, the Red Sox would have to finish 22-9 just to tie. How unlikely is that? The Rays still have 13 games against the Orioles, the Mariners and the Royals. Meanwhile, the Red Sox still have 16 games against the Yankees, White Sox and Rays. Yes, it is safe to say, the Red Sox are roadkill…Dan Johnson. It was shades of 2008. DJ just knows how to raise his game against the Red Sox when the Rays need it more. And now, 3 of his 4 home runs in a Rays uniform have come against the Red Sox. Let’s just hope that he doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin until after next week’s series in Fenway…BJ Upton. He was 0-4 last night, but we didn’t want to go without mentioning his home run from Saturday night which has been overshadowed by Dan Johnson’s big blast. If not for Upton double-clutching and then crushing a Clay Buchholz curveball, Johnson may never get a chance to recreate his role as Red Sox killer. Upton now has 5 home runs in August. That is his biggest single month since October, 2008.

THE BAD: Attendance. There were only 23,438 tickets sold for last night’s game, and there were probably less than 20,000 in The Trop. Of course, much of that can be blamed on ESPN moving the game to 8pm on a school night. The rest can probably be blamed on bandwagon Red Sox fans that have never even been to Boston and have now jumped ship.

THE TELLING: Carl Crawford is just the 8th big leaguer with 100 home runs, 100 triples and 400 steals…Yesterday was James Shields’ 145th career start and 56th career win. Both broke Scott Kazmir’s franchise records…The Charlotte Stone Crabs extended their minor league affiliation with the Rays through the 2012 season…Catcher Nevin Ashley was promoted to Durham.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 80-50, tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East. They are 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the wild card (7 in the loss column). After 130 games in 2008, the Rays were 79-51.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• We are traveling today. RI will return a normal schedule tomorrow.
• Dan Johnson talks about his walk-off home run Saturday Night (Video). [The Heater]
• Here is video of Dan Johnson getting the shaving pie treatment after is big blast on Saturday night (Video). [Sun Sports]
• Durham pitching coach Xavier Hernandez will join Houston Baptist University next season as an assistant coach. Hernandez had previously coached at HBU. [Houston Baptist]
• The Biz of Baseball explains how the Rays are an example of how Read the rest of this entry »

After being named AA’s pitcher of the year in 2007, Chris Mason has struggled since his promotion to Durham. Sportsgist.com cought up with Mason and his teammate/roommate Nick DeBarr for a rather candid interview about Mason.

We are big fans of Mason and are rooting hard for him to make the jump to the big leagues. The Rays could use a personality like his.

After the break is a second video in which Sportsgist interviews Durham pitching coach Xavier Hernandez about Mason and his mechanics.

CLICK HERE TO CONTINUE READING…

Ever since Andy Sonnanstine was in the minor leagues posting astronomical strikeout-to-walk ratios, there were always certain tenets that we have held to be true about the right hander that could dominate without a dominating fastball.

1. He throws about 46 different pitches
2. He has impeccable control
3. He can keep batters off-balance by changing speeds
4. He throws pitches from a number of different arm angles

These beliefs are so ingrained in what we know of Sonnanstine that it spawned the nickname “The Duke” because he seemed to be Orlando ‘El Duque’ Hernandez’ caucasion brother from another mother.

Unfortunately, the minor league numbers and pinpoint control did not translate to the major leagues last year, leaving many to wonder if Sonny was just a place-holder until until something better came along.

But after a shaky start to 2008, Sonnanstine has been solid in his last three outings including a 3-hit shutout of the White Sox and an 8 inning, 1 run performance against the O’s.

We were curious as to what Sonnanstine was doing differently in 2008.

Imagine our surprise when we realized that The Duke was no longer throwing pitches from different arm angles.

Josh Kalk of The Hardball Times, uses the Pitchf/x system to track pitches from individual pitchers based on a number of factors including speed, location and pitch type among others.

Another factor that is recorded is release point. Here is the release point data from Sonnanstine’s 2007 player card in which 885 pitches were tracked.

Notice that there is a quite a range of release points used by Sonnanstine. This is consistent with what we know of Sonny.

Now, here is the release point data from Sonnanstine’s 2008 player card in which 334 pitches have been tracked to date.

Now let’s look both side-by-side…

A couple of points stand out…

1. All of the release points this season are much more clustered. Outside of a single fastball, he is not changing his arm angle in 2008. One of the first things a pitching coach will try to teach a pitcher is “repeatability”, the ability to repeat his delivery exactly the same on every single pitch. This helps a pitcher stay consistent and if anything starts to go awry it is easier to pinpoint and fix the problem. Sonnanstine appears to be using this approach in 2008.
2. His “standard” release point is much more over the top in 2008. Notice that the cluster on the right is higher than the main cluster on the left. Among other things, this makes Sonny’s curve ball a little closer to the standard 12-6 break. That is the curveball will not sweep across the strikezone as much as in years past. We see that when we look at the vertical and horizontal break charts on his 2007 and 2008 Pitchf/x cards (scroll down to the first chart on each page). In 2007, Sonny’s curve ball had little vertical break, but moved 10-15 inches horizontally. In 2008 the vertical break is now as much as 10 inches and the horizontal movement is only 5-10 inches.
3. His different pitches are now being released from the same point. In 2007 we can see certain pitches clustering in different areas. This could very well have been a mechanism for batters to more quickly determine what pitch was being thrown. Many batters train themselves to focus on the release point of a pitcher to more quickly focus on the ball. In 2007 almost every time Sonnanstine changed his arm angle, he threw a fastball. A good hitter might be able to use a deviation from the norm to predict a pitch more quickly.

But the lack of different arm angles is not the only thing Sonnanstine has changed this season. If we look at The Duke’s pitch-selection from 2007 versus 2008 we can see that he is no longer relying on the accuracy of his fastball…

As we can see here, in 2007, nearly half of his pitches were fastballs. That number is down to about 1/3 in 2008. It is more difficult to gain a grasp of the use of other pitches. The system used to identify pitches is not always very accurate and we assume it would be less so for a pitcher such as Sonnanstine. With the more sweeping nature of Sonny’s curveball, it is quite possible some curves are being mistaken as sliders. Also, the sinker and splitter may be the same pitch. We knew Sonnanstine was playing with a sinker last year, but are not familiar with him throwing a splitter. Even if the two pitches are actually one, we see that they are being used much less in 2008.

There was some idle chatter at the end of the 2007 among some Rays’ fans, calling for the Rays to remove Jim Hickey and install Xavier Hernandez as the Rays’ pitching coach. But given a full season, and a few more major league arms, Hickey has transformed the bullpen from the worst in the last 50 years, to one of the best in 2008. And Hickey also deserves considerable credit for the transformation of Sonnanstine as the 2008 numbers are more than just a new-found confidence or ability to hit the strike zone.

Tampa Bay Rays (28 days until Opening Day)

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 9, Indians 7.

The Good: Scott Dohmann retired all 4 batters he faced, including the final out of the 6th inning with the bases loaded…Another errorless game for the Rays who have 21 in the spring. Only 6 teams have committed fewer…

The Bad: Rays pitchers had their streak of 21 innings without a walk end in the 3rd and then proceeded to walk 7 on the day including one with the bases loaded by Grant Balfour and hit a batter by Andy Sonnanstine….

The Telling: Elliot Johnson got the start at third base over Joel Guzman as Willy Aybar continues to nurse a sore hamstring. Either Johnson or Guzman will get the opening day assignment if Aybar is not ready to go.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Obligatory Public Service Announcement: We will be hosting the 2nd Annual Opening Day Tampa Bay Rays Live Blog here at RI. So feel free to stop by and join in on the shenanigans as participation is certainly welcome.
• Want a good indication that Scott Dohmann will be named to the roster over Grant Balfour? Try this quote from Balfour: “It’s tough to go out there and pitch every time knowing that you’re either on the team or off the team…It’s tough, having that pressure on you, I must admit.” Excuse me? You know what else is pressure? Coming in to the game with a 1-run lead and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Funny…We thought pressure was something a relief pitcher needs to be able to handle. The whole point of this battle for the final spot in the bullpen is to send you guys out there every time knowing a job is on the line and seeing how you handle it. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rays are tied with the Cubs and White Sox for most hit batters in spring training with 17. James Shields has 4 all by himself, which is the second most in the spring. As per a discussion in the comments section a few days ago, on the surface it appears like Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey are emphasizing the importance of pitching inside with the benefit outweighing the occasional hit batter. Now we see that this is also being implemented at the minor league level as Durham pitching coach Xavier Hernandez is preaching the same method to the minor leaguers, in particular Chris Mason who was the AA pitcher of the year last year. Mason has hit 5 batters in camp this spring. [Montgomery Advertiser]

“I’ve always emphasized it,” Hernandez said. “Being at the Triple-A level and going to the major leagues at the end of last year, I realized that it’s not only important, it’s imperative.”

• Acording to Outs Per Swing Evan Longoria already has more AAA experience than all of the following third basemen combined: Albert Pujols, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Kouzmanoff. He also has the same experience as David Wright and is only 3 games short of Ryan Braun. [Outs Per Swing]
• Rays of Light picked up a nice not-very-surprising tidbit about Elijah Dukes. Apparently he went MIA from the Nats for “non-baseball matters”…We’ve said it before, we will say it again. We don’t care if Glenn Gibson never throws another pitch, the Rays made a great trade to get rid of that ticking time bomb. [Rays of Light]
• The Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue is out and here is a link to the Rays preview. [ESPN]
• David Pinto goes to PECOTA to show that the Rays have the best rotation in the AL East, and that takes into consideration that starting pitchers will miss time and uses Jason Hammel in place of Edwin Jackson. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Here is another projection for the Rays pitching staff. [Baseball Musings]
• RJ Anderson answers 5 questions about the Tampa Bay Rays at The Hardball Times. [The Hardball Times]

Scottsdale Scorpions (5-0)
Up and down weekend for Evan Longoria in the Arizona Fall League. The Dirtbag homered on Thursday and Friday to bring his streak to 3 straight games with a home run. He is tied for the league lead with 3 home runs and 5 RBI, but only has 1 other hit and is 4-18 (.222). Even more surprising is that Longoria has 8 strikeouts in 5 games with only 1 walk. While Longoria has not been immune to the strikeout, his strikeout to walk ratio has been the most telling stat of his young professional career. In 136 games between Montgomery and Durham, The Dirtbag struck out 110 times compared to 73 walks. A ratio close to 1:1 is usually a strong indicator of future success at higher levels.

Reid Briganc went 2-9 in 2 games over the weekend. Mike Prochaska started on Saturday and was knocked out after giving up 6 runs in 1 inning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have heard and read the calls for the Rays to hire Leo Mazzone as pitching coach after he was let go by the Baltimore Orioles. We have no doubt that Mazzone would be a good pitching coach with the Rays but we have to agree with Rays of Light that he would not be a good fit. If the Rays decide to part ways with Jim Hickey after his recent DUI arrest and after the Rays finished with the worst ERA in baseball, his replacement is most likely already on the payroll. We don’t see any reason to go out and hire Mazzone for something between $500,000 and $1 million when the team’s top coaching prospect is a pitching coach at AAA Durham. Xavier Hernandez has a great track record and already has an existing relationship with many of the Rays young pitchers as well as many of the prospects that will be wearing Rays uniforms in the near future. We would not want the Rays to sign a free agent third baseman with Evan Longoria so close to the majors, so why should the Rays do the same with Hernandez? [Rays of Light]
  
• Ryan Royster was named the Minor League Baseball’s Single-A offensive player of the year. [MiLB]
• U.S.S. Mariner handed out their organizational grades and the Rays were one of only three teams to receive an A. [U.S.S. Mariner]
• The Rays have finished 5th in 9 of the team’s 10 seasons. This promotion only seems logical. Gives new meaning to “One for the thumb” [The Harrumph Herald]

Devil Rays (66-96)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Rays 68-94 record was only 2 wins less than their expected final record. [Baseball Musings]
• Jim Hickey. We guess being the coach of one of the worst pitching staffs ever would be reason to drink, but it is not reason to drive and it is not reason to take your frustration out on the batboy. By the looks of the mugshot, Hickey lost the argument. [Lion in Oil]
• Jim Hickey’s arrest comes only days before the team is to decide whether he and the rest of the coaching staff will be retained in 2008. Hitting coach Steve Henderson is the most likely coach to come back. Before Sunday, we would have assumed that Hickey was a lock to be given at least one more season to work with the staff. However, after his DUI, the Rays may turn to their pitching coach-in-waiting, Xavier Hernandez, who is highly regarded for the work he has done the last two seasons at Montgomery and Durham and with whom many of the Rays younger pitchers are already familiar and comfortable with. [tampabay.com]
• Its difficult to make an assessment of Akinori Iwamura’s ability to play second base, based on one game and especially one play, but when the opportunity arrived to turn his first double play from the middle infield, Mu-Rah was flawless. [TBO]
• Scott Kazmir finished as the Major League leader in strikeouts. Of course that goes a long ways to explaining whe he led the majors with 6,432,867 pitches thrown. [Bradenton Herald]
• Carlos Pena was named the AL Player of the Week for the final week. [tampabay.com]
• Carlos Pena finished with 46 home runs in less than 500 at bats, which makes him the most underrated first baseman in baseball. “If Pena was a Red Sox or Yankee’s player he would finish second in MVP voting. Instead he was underrated.” Actually, if Pena was playing for almost any other team, he probably finishes second in the MVP voting. That is the mark of being underrated. [I'm smarter than you]
• ArmchairGM makes a case for considering Carlos Pena for MVP. [ArmchairGM]
• Carlos Pena is a finalist for the “Pepsi Clutch” award that goes to the clutchiest player. We agree that he is a worthy nominee, but we disagree with the notion that “few people knew of Pena before the year”. Anybody that follows baseball even remotely, knew of Pena as one of the top prospects in baseball a few years ago. [MLB]
• We have a feeling that Delmon Young will finish second in the Rookie of the Year balloting, but it will not be because of his outburst following Saturday’s game in which Joe Maddon pulled Young from the game for not running out a ground ball. Ballots for the award were due on either Sunday or Monday, which means most writers are likely to have already made their selections prior to Saturday. [Yahoo! Sports]
• It was a disastrous season for Korean baseball players. Of course, Jae Seo, Jae Kuk Ryu and Hee Seop Choi were all member of the Devil Rays at one point, so it is kind of like the Chicken and the Egg argument. [Korean Times]
• Greg Norton will have surgery on his elbow. A case can be made that Norton should share team MVP honors with Carlos Pena. If Norton had not gotten hurt the final week of Spring Training and was hitting well to start the season, it might have taken the team a while to call up Pena. [Devil Rays]
• Some of the players believe that the team is very close to competing. [tampabay.com]

“We don’t need much,” All-Star Carl Crawford said. “Maybe another starter and probably a little more bullpen help. Just three players and we’re right there. We’re right at the tip.”

• Marc Lancaster takes a look back at the 2007 season and hands out a bunch of awards, we like to call the Marckie Marcs. Our favorite category is “Veteran of the Year” for a team that has exactly 3 players over the age of 12. And then there is the “Most Frustrating Season”. He should just rename that one the “The Rocco”. He also looks ahead to what we can expect for 2008. [TBO]
• Marc Lancaster can’t wait for next year. We would take it a step further. We would like to replay this season with the group the Rays ended with. Playoff contender? probably not, but definitely not the worst team in the league and maybe a run at .500 would be in order. [TBO]
• Bill Chastain takes a look back at the 2007 season and calls the second half lineup “one of the best lineups in team history”. He also takes a look forward to 2008. [Devil Rays]
• Hey! It’s the off-season. It is time to start reading a million and one articles about how [Insert Team Name] should acquire Carl Crawford and that the Rays would probably give him up for 20 rusty nickels. The Akron Beacon Journal wasted no time. [Ohio.com]

Angels 10, Devil Rays 7.
Just the links today as we try to recover from a weekend in the Live Music Capital of the World.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The Devil Rays are 63-88 with 11 games remaining and are 2 games behind Baltimore in the AL East and Kansas City for the worst record in baseball (1 game behind in win column).
• An 8-3 finish will give the Rays 71 wins (a franchise record)
• A 10-1 finish and the Rays will avoid 90 losses for the first time.
• Scott Boras is up to his old tricks and this time it might cost the Devil Rays if they wish to sign Carlos Pena to a long-term deal. Boras believes that the Rays need to step-up because of the bargain they received this year, believing that the Rays got “a player who had probably a $15-million season for about $1.2-million” and “the greatest player to ever put on a Devil Ray uniform” (which sounds great on the surface, but really isn’t saying much). Boras has the amazing ability of making each of his clients out to be the greatest player ever. Pena has been great, but it is not like he is hitting 40 home runs from short stop. He is a first baseman. The drop-off from Pena to the #20 first baseman (stats-wise) is not that great. [tampabay.com]
  
• BJ Upton stole home last night, to become just the third Devil Rays player to successfully complete a straight-steal of home. [tampabay.com]
• Joe Maddon was ejected in the seventh inning after Jonny Gomes was called out on a check-swing. It was Papa Joe’s sixth career ejection. [Devil Rays]
• Jorge Velandia has is making the most out of his rare major league opportunity. He reached base 8 times in 12 plate appearances, covering 3 starts and he has played the best defensive shortstop we have seen in a long time, from a player wearing green and grey. [TBO]
• Durham Bulls pitching coach Xavier Hernandez has joined the Devil Rays coaching staff for the final two weeks of the season. [TBO]
• Scott Kazmir was named the AL player of the week. He shares the award with Fausto Carmona of the Cleveland Indians. This is the second time that Kid K has been honored with the award. [Devil Rays]
• Carl Crawford will be out of the lineup until at least Friday, and it is still unclear if he will return this season. This would be a good opportunity for CC and Rocco Baldelli to get to know each other again. [tampabay.com]
• Akinori Iwamura talks about life as a major leaguer with a newborn son. Translation: The wife wakes up the middle of the night. [Celebrity Baby Blog]
• JP Howell was recalled from Durham, but will not be inserted into the rotation as a 6th starter. He will work out of the bullpen, but hopes to get another shot as a major league starter down the line. [Devil Rays]
• Poor Vinny Testaverde. He comes in at #13 on the list of “100 Players You Love To Hate.” Did you know that Vinny is not only still alive, but he was still playing in the NFL, as a backup with the New England Patriots last season? That is the definition of parity in the NFL. The Pats were one knee injury or concussion away from being 7-9 instead of 12-4. [ESPN]

Chad Orvella was recently sent to AAA Durham after 10 appearances with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In only his 4th full season as a pro, Orvella has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the Devil Rays, but has yet to achieve the same level of success he has experienced at the minor league level. In 169 innings as a minor leaguer, Orvella has a 1.49 ERA and has recorded 241 strikeouts and only 33 walks which equate to 12.8 K/9 and 7.3 K:BB. Those numbers are incredible at any level. Still, Orvella has struggled at the major league level. In 82.1 innings he has an ERA of 5.79 and has only recorded 66 strikeouts with 53 walks. His rates at the major league level have dropped to 7.2 K/9 and 1.2 K:BB. Since being back in Durham, he is back to his dominating ways, with 5 strikeouts and no walks in 3 appearances (3 ip). He has allowed only 1 hit.

In order to better understand the struggles of the young relief pitcher, we emailed him some questions. He emailed us some answers…

[our thoughts on Chad's comments follow the Q&A]

1. You were used sparingly as a pitcher at NC State. When did you first realize that your best chance of making it to the majors was as a pitcher and were you surprised that the Devil Rays drafted you with the intent of making you a full-time pitcher?

CO: When I went to the cape cod league I hit about .180 and realized I should probably get on the hill and scouts saw that I had a good arm and asked me to throw at a practice at NC State.

2. In only your fourth season as a full-time pitcher, you are still very early in your development. Explain how you work on your mechanics. Do you watch video of yourself or do you rely exclusively on the advice of the coaching staff?

CO: I’ve just started to watch video. It’s tough to work with a coaching staff because I’ve had so many different pitching coaches over the past four seasons. The one that’s seen me the most is Xavier Hernandez (Bulls current pitching coach) so if he has any advice I’ll listen to him.

3. This season you have worked with both Jim Hickey and Xavier Hernandez. How do their coaching styles differ? How are they similar?

CO: I think both of their styles are to be aggressive and be the aggressor as the pitcher. I haven’t really been able to work with Hickey too much but he seems like a good buy.

4. For a young pitcher that has bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors and from pitching coach to pitching coach, how do you adjust to the different environments and the many voices offering advice? How much do you lean on others besides your current pitching coach (other pitchers, catchers, former coaches, etc.)?

CO: You try to take a little advice from everybody and make it your own. Use what you can. Everybody has an opinion.

5. Dioner Navarro and Shawn Riggans are both talented catchers, but both are young. How important is it to a young pitcher and a young pitching staff to have a veteran like Josh Paul, in Tampa, or Raul Casanova earlier this season and Michel Hernandez now in Durham?

CO: I think it’s important because they may know some of the big league hitters, but having a catcher like Shawn Riggans, where he’s seen me throw for four years, I think is more important than having a veteran catcher that doesn’t know you at all.

6. After your most recent demotion, you once again were back to dominating hitters. It was reported that you discovered a flaw in the mechanics. If that was the case, what was the flaw and how was it discovered?

CO: Jamie Shields brought up an idea that my delivery has changed in the past couple years. A few years ago I used to squat down really low, in fact, the guys used to make fun of me because it looked like I was sitting in a chair. But I’ve gotten away from that and now my command has gotten worse. I’ve gone back to looking like I was crouching in a chair and it seems to be working.

7. When you do tweak your mechanics, how is the adjustment? Is it something that you are comfortable with and notice the improvement immediately or does it take getting used to?

CO: When I made this adjustment it was pretty quick. It’s just getting comfortable with it again. The biggest difference I see is in my off-speed stuff and how the hitters are reacting to that.

8. Have the Devil Rays indicated to you what you need to improve in order to be more consistent at the Major League level?

CO: They’ve just said that I need to be more consistent. I’ve always had a lot of success at Triple-A and throughout the minor leagues. They know I’ll do well here, but they’re sending me here to get more confidence.

9. In the minor leagues you have posted some prodigious strikeout totals and incredible strikeout to walk ratios. While it is not surprising that your strikeout totals have fallen at the major league level, it is surprising that you have struggled with your control. How would you explain the stark difference in your numbers from one level to the next?

CO: The strike zone is a little different. Calls that I might get in the minor leagues I don’t get up there. I think it just goes back to maintaining my aggressive style while in the big leagues and I’ve gotten away from that.

10. How would you describe pitching at the Trop? As a pitcher do you like pitching indoors? Does pitching so many games indoors make it difficult to adjust to games on the road? Would you consider it a hitters’ park or does it play fair?

CO: Pitching at the Trop is a little different. I don’t think anyone loves playing inside, but it’s something you get used to. It plays fair.

11. Who is one player on the Durham Bulls roster (pitcher or fielder) that may fly a bit under the prospect radar, but whom you think is on the verge of breaking out and will be a successful big leaguer?

CO: Jeff Ridgway. I think he’s got the stuff to be a very good big league pitcher. It’s just being consistent like everybody else. He’s on the verge of breaking out.

[Rays Index] We have been following Orvella’s progress for several years now and it is easy to forget that he has only been a pitcher for about five years. Also, looking back, Chad’s dominance at the minor league level may not have been the best scenario for his development. While it gave him confidence to succeed, it may have also provided a false sense of security. It is telling that a young pitcher still learning the craft is just now beginning to use video. That indicates, that up to this most recent struggle, he has relied completely on natural ability, and never learned how to work through adversity.

It is also worth noting that Orvella was on the major league roster for over a month and yet he says that he really hasn’t yet had a chance to work with Jim Hickey. We are no experts, but if a guy goes from 12 Ks per 9 innings to 7 and all of the sudden can’t find the strike zone after having impeccable control in the minors, the first thing we would do is dust off some videotape of Orvella from 2005 or 2006 and see if anything had changed. It is amazing that James Shields was the only person that noticed a change in Orvella’s mechanics.

Many, us included, have wondered aloud if Chad Orvella is a classic AAAA pitcher, with the ability to dominate the minor leagues, but without the stuff to succeed in the majors. Still, his minor league numbers are too impressive to write off and we need to remember that he is still learning how to pitch, how to succeed and how to handle adversity. If Al Reyes is traded before July 31 as we believe he will be, look for Orvella to emerge as either the Rays’ closer or 8th inning set-up guy in 2008.

Durham 8, Ottawa 0. Bulls pitchers run their scoreless streak to 19 consecutive innings. Yesterday, Jason Hammel pitched a complete game 5-hit shutout. He struck out 6 and walked none to lower his ERA to 2.85. Justin Ruggiano hit a home run for the second consecutive game and now has 6. Ben Zobrist added his second.

Huntsville 12, Montgomery 3. Chris Seddon allowed 5 runs in 5 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 walks. Seddon added 3 wild pitches as he struggled with his control. His ERA is now 4.98. Reid Brignac was 1-4 and Evan Longoria went 0-4 and is now hitting below .300 (.289). Jason Pridie went 3-4 and is hitting .302. He added his 12th stolen base.

Columbus 3, Savannah 2 (14 inn). Josh Butler gave up 2 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk in 7 innings. His ERA is now 2.41.

NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…

• When we saw that The Hardball Times had a post titled “Ten hitting prospects worth knowing about” we went eh and shrugged our shoulders. We assumed there would be a Devil Ray or two on there. Likely we would find the usual suspects like Evan Longoria and/or Reid Brignac. And quite frankly it just isn’t that exciting anymore. They are on all of these lists. But to our surprise neither made the list but another Rays prospect did…Desmond Jennings. Now they got our attention. We knew his bio and have seen the stats, but we really didn’t know much about him.

Jennings is positioned to lead the next generation of Rays outfield prospects. The former three-sport star is going to draw Carl Crawford comparisons, but he already is showing more patience at the plate than Crawford ever has by walking in 11% of his plate appearances. Jennings is a good contact hitter but is not just slapping the ball on the ground and using his speed to get on base; 16% of his batted balls are line drives and he already has a dozen extra-base hits. Jennings likes to run; he is 21-for-30 in stolen base attempts this year.

• Two consecutive seasons with the Durham Bulls’ pitching coach, Xavier Hernandez, has paid big dividends for Andy Sonnanstine.
• On Sunday, Mitch Talbot pitched 8 shutout innings with 2 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 5.
• On Sunday Columbus pitcher Lewis Rollins picked up his 6th straight win as he worked 6 innings and allowed only 1 hit, no walks and 1 unearned run. He struck out 5. The only run allowed came after the Catfish committed 3 errors in the 5thinning. In his last 8 starts, Rollins has thrown 50 innings, with 24 hits, 10 walks and 49 strike outs. He has also only allowed 1 earned over that stretch for a ridiculous ERA of 0.18. His ERA on the year is not quite as good at 1.04.