It is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index* in which we rank the top players in the Rays organization (40-man roster plus top prospects) based on their overall value to the team. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in the organization.

Notes on how the rankings are compiled and a few specific players can be found after the table…

Notes on the TVI top 50…

• The TVI is calculated using four variables: 1) talent (based on a reasonable projection of abilities); 2) age-value (based on age and years remaining until free agency); 3) position (based loosely on Bill James’ defensive spectrum, and adjusted as needed based on team needs) and 4) current level (i.e. MLB, triple-A, etc.). These values are all scaled 1-10 and given a weight of 3.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 respectively. The final value is then based on a scale of 1-100.
• Think of the rankings this way: If the Rays had Read the rest of this entry »

[Ed. note: We have been running these posts for several years now, but ultimately, the original idea was based on Bill Simmons' NBA Trade Value List. Bill gets crabby if we forget to mention that.]

It is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index in which we rank the top 50 players in the Rays organization (40-man roster plus top prospects) based on their overall value to the team. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in the organization.

Notes on how the rankings are compiled and a few specific players can be found after the table. Full calculations can be found at the end of this post…

Notes on the TVI top 50…

• The TVI is calculated using four variables: 1) talent (based on a reasonable projection of abilities); 2) age-value (based on age and years remaining until free agency); 3) position (based loosely on Bill James’ defensive spectrum, and adjusted as needed based on team needs) and 4) current level (i.e. MLB, triple-A, etc.). These values are all scaled 1-10 and given a weight of 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 respectively.
• Think of the rankings this way: If the Rays had to choose between Player A and Player B, the player they would pick will be ranked higher in the TVI.
• Evan Longoria is Read the rest of this entry »

It is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index in which we rank the top 45 players in the Rays organization based on their overall value to the team.

The TVI ranks every player on the 40-man roster and the top prospects. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in the organization.

Notes on how the rankings are compiled and a few specific players can be found after the table. Full calculations can be found at the end of this post…

Notes on the TVI top 45…

• The TVI is calculated using four variables: 1) talent (based on a reasonable projection of abilities); 2) age-value (based on age and years remaining until free agency); 3) position (based loosely on Bill James’ defensive spectrum) and 4) current level (i.e. MLB, triple-A, etc.). These values are all scaled 1-10 and given a weight of 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 respectively.
• Evan Longoria is the clear #1. The next 4 players (Jeremy Hellickson, David Price, Wade Davis, Matt Garza) all fall in a narrow range. But 6 years of Hellickson gives him just a tad more value than 4 more years of Price or 3 more years of Garza.
• At the other end of the spectrum we have mostly players that will be free agents at the end of the year. These players usually won’t command much in a trade.
• Players were given a “bonus” based on their free agent status (Type A or Type B). Even though these players will likely be gone next year, they will command one or two draft picks in compensation. The bonus was loosely based on the values of draft picks in the second-half of the first-round and the supplemental round. Players that will be free agents following the 2011 season were given half the free agency bonus.
• The one player that probably doesn’t fit this model is Carl Crawford. He has a low TVI value due to his pending free agency and he plays a non-premium position. But if the Rays were to try and trade him, he would probably command a steep price because he is considered a “difference maker.”
• Feel free to let us know in the comments if you feel their is variable that should be included in the TVI calculations and if you think the relative weights should be different. This is evolving process. And while we try to remove as much subjectivity as possible, the nature of the beast will always require at least a little bit.

FULL CALCULATIONS AFTER THE JUMP

Read the rest of this entry »

Tomorrow we will be posting our updated Trade Value Index, in which we rank the top 45 players in the organization based on overall value to the franchise. Two of the most important criteria for determining overall value is a player’s age and the number of years remaining until that player is eligible for free agency.

In this post we are going to show you how we calculate this value. We will also take a look at what the optimum age is for promoting a player to the Major Leagues so that the Rays can maximize a player’s value. And finally we will show you how all the Rays players rank based on age-value (AV).

We know that a player’s peak age is about 27. This is great if you are able to build a team with 25 27-year olds and then get 25 new 27-year olds next year. But players usually stay with a team for more than a single season.

So what is the optimum range of ages to have a player on your team? Let’s say you can have a player for two seasons. On average, is it more valuable to have that player for ages 26-27 or ages 27-28? To know this we need to know how valuable the age-26 and age-28 seasons are compared to each other and relative to the age-27 season.

Luckily, the guys at The Book have already done that part of the work for us. Using several key stats for hitters, they calculated linear weights to each age from 21 through 39. If we graph these values we get an idea of how players age…

As we can see, the curve peaks at age 27 (linear weight=0.999) and a player is a little bit better at age 26 (0.996) than at age 28 (0.978). So in our original hypothetical situation, if a team can only have a player for two seasons, they would usually be better off with the ages 26-27 than the ages 27-28.

Now let’s extrapolate this and determine AVs over all possible combinations of age and number of years a player is with the team…

In the first column we see the original linear weights from The Book. To calculate the AVs for the other columns we simply added the values for each age-season a player would be with the team. For example, if a player debuted at age 21 and is with the team for six seasons, his AV is calculated by adding the values in column 1 for ages 21 through 26.

So at what age should a player make his big league debut if the team is to maximize the player’s AV*? If we assume that the player will be with the team for six seasons and leave once they are eligible for free agency, then a team can maximize a player’s production by having the player debut at age 24. This would cover a player’s ages 24-29 seasons.

Now let’s look at the AVs for Rays on the 40-man roster and a few of the top prospects. Notes on this table can be found below…

Notes on the table…

• The original linear weights were for hitters. It has been argued that the peak season for pitchers is also age 27. However, we do not have linear weights for other ages. So for the sake of this analysis we are assuming that the curve seen above is the same for pitchers.
• We used ages for the 2011 season and control refers to the number of years remaining until free agency starting with 2011. Basically, we are looking at value beyond this season. Therefore, players that will be free agents this winter have AVs of zero.

As we can see, Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings and Jake McGee will all be in their age-24 season next year. If they make their big league debuts (as expected), the Rays will be maximizing their values. Evan Longoria’s AV falls below these three because his 6 remaining seasons cover ages 25-30, which is slightly less valuable than the ages 24-29 that the three prospects will likely spend with the Rays.

At the other end of the spectrum, several key members of the roster have low AVs. This is because these players are nearing free agency (e.g. Matt Garza, BJ Upton). So while these players will be in or near their peak season (age-27), much of their value has already been used.

Obviously there are a lot of other factors that go into determining a player’s value. But for a team like the Rays, they need to maximize that value at every turn. Most of the Rays talent will come from within the organization, and most of those players will leave by the time they hit free agency. It is the nature of the beast. And if the Rays are going to tame the beast, they need to maximize AVs.

(a special hat tip to Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Boxscore who pointed me to the linear weights data)

*A player is eligible for free agency once they hit 6 years of service time. However, depending on when a player makes his debut, it is possible for a team to get (nearly) 7 seasons from a player before they become eligible.

We recently updated our 40-man and 25-man roster projections for the 2010 season. With free agency now in full swing, the Hot Stove is upon us. Therefore it is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays “Trade Value Index” in which we rank the value of top 43 players in the Rays organization.

The TVI ranks every player on the 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization.

Notes on how the rankings are compiled and a few specific players can be found after the table…

Notes on the Rays TVI top 50…

• The TVI uses very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said, we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be…Or not.
• The top 10 players are all under team control for at least the next 3 years.
• Evan Longoria and David Price were the clear 1-2. After that James Shields and Matt Garza were clearly above the next group.
• The two players that were the subject of the most debate were Jeremy Hellickson and Tim Beckham. The debate centered around how much either could command if traded.
• At the other end of the rankings, Ramon Ramirez was recently claimed off waivers, so likely has little or no value. Gabe Kapler might just be a 5th outfielder on the Rays suggesting he is not very valuable. Meanwhile, many teams might want Pat Burrell, but his contract would scare most teams away.
• Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

Since we last updated the TVI in November, the Rays have made several roster additions. This update reflects those additions and subtractions.

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments. Notes on the rankings can be found after the table…

Man, we can already smell that fresh-cut grass. Yummy.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• In case you missed our update yesterday afternoon, the Rays DFA’d Juan Salas to make room for Brian Shouse…It seems like only yesterday when Salas, a converted infielder allowed only 2 earned runs and struck out 52 in 34.2 double-A innings. Then the following season Salas got caught injecting himself with idiot-enhancing drugs, and he was never the same. [Rays Report]
• In the next week or so we will be updating our Trade Value Index (in the sidebar). In the meantime, we would be remiss if we don’t mention that Bill Simmons has released his annual NBA Trade Value Index, which was the inspiration for our TVI. [ESPN]
• Former Phillies GM Pat Gillick was asked whether the WFC* tried to resign Pat Burrell. Gillick responded that the WFC* did talk to Burrell’s agent last season but that the two sides were very far apart and that Burrell was expecting too much money and too many years at the time. [The Fightins]
• Troy Percival has already thrown off the mound a “couple of times” during his rehab. [MLB]
• Joe Maddon has been “refining his philosophy” this off-season and already has his new catch-phrase to replace “9=8.” Maddon assures that this year’s motivational tool will not be as covert. [St. Pete Times]
• Scott Kazmir makes the annual RotoAuthority list of spring training cliches. [RotoAuthority]
• Rays of Light has updated their roster projection. [Rays of Light]

Last week we updated our 40-man and 25-man roster projections for the 2009 season. With free agency now in full swing, the Hot Stove is upon us. Therefore it is time to update the Tampa Bay Rays “Trade Value Index” in which we rank the value of top 50 players in the Rays organization.

The TVI ranks every player on the 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because we have to keep reading stories about how he overcame his handicap of having been a Columbia University student, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton in center field for years to come.

We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said, we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be…Or not.

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]


Notes on the Rays TVI top 50…

• Notice that 10 of the top 11 are under team control for at least the next 4 years, and we expect the 11th (Dioner Navarro) to be locked up to a longterm deal this winter.
• We have been updating this list every few months for over two years now and this is the first time that Scott Kazmir was not in the top spot. This time, there were arguments for everybody in the top 4 (Evan Longoria, David Price, James Shields, BJ Upton) to be #1. And while there was some sentiment that Matt Garza has surpassed Kaz, the concerns about Garza having a tired arm in 2009 and the fact that Kazmir is both a lefty and the youngest pitcher in the rotation gives him the edge.
• After Garza, the next group of about 12-13 players consists of the top-tier prospects and younger key contributors to the everyday lineup. This group is led by Tim Beckham. The top pick of the 2008 draft would be in the top 3 of most organizations.
• Carl Crawford is starting to slip down the list. With only two years left on his contract, a history of injuries and a talent-level that appears to have already plateaued, he is no longer the most valuable position player.
• Jake McGee was the biggest wild card. There was some sentiment that he was still a top 10 commodity, while others felt he had little value until he was back on the field. Keep in mind that many pitchers need two full years to get back to 100% after Tommy John surgery and some never get back at all (Wade Townsend).
  
• One of our rules of thumb is to not get too excited about most prospects until they do something above single-A. But we made an exception for Matt Moore and Nick Barnese. The early reports on both are very promising and the numbers are too good to ignore. But if the 19-year olds slip up even a little, they will tumble down the list quickly.
• While there are currently openings on the 40-man roster, should the Rays need additional spots in the future, the most likely DFA candidates will come from the bottom of this list. Jason Hammel, Juan Salas, Jonny Gomes, JK Ryu, Troy Percival and Chad Orvella make up the least valuable players on the 40-man roster. Percival is safe, but his age, $4 million salary and questions about his health leave him with very little value at this point.

According to the TVI, the Rays top 15 prospects, in terms of value, are as follows…

1. David Price
2. Tim Beckham
3. Wade Davis
4. Jeremy Hellickson
5. Jake McGee
6. Reid Brignac
   
7. Matt Moore
8. Nick Barnese
9. Jeff Niemann
10. Mitch Talbot
11. John Jaso
12. Fernando Perez
13. James Houser
14. Desmond Jennings
15. Eddie Morlan

With the non-waiver trade deadline, a little over a week away, there are rumors galore that the Rays are interested in beefing up the bullpen, adding a right-handed hitting outfielder and possibly a utility infielder.

Therefore it is time to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…

The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep.

The rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton in center field for years to come. Another factor is team needs. One player may be ranked ahead of a more talented player if he plays a position that is more needed at the major league level or has a lack of depth in the minors.

We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be. Or not.

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• Scott Kazmir barely holds his grip on the top spot. Evan Longoria’s contract extension that keeps him in a Rays uniform for what seems like the rest of his life as well as his first-born, makes the Dirtbag extremely valuable. Still, Kid K is a power lefty that is nearing 50 wins and he is not even 25 yet. On top of that, the Rays secured him to an extension that should keep him with the team for the next 4 years. Nothing in baseball is more valuable than that.
• One could easily argue that BJ Upton is one of the more talented position players in all baseball, but there is some sense that he is not willing to negotiate a contract extension and will test the free agency waters when his time comes.
• Matt Garza shoots up the rankings based on the past month of starts in which the one thing that seemed to be holding him back, his emotions, now seem under control. He has the stuff to be a top-10 pitcher in baseball and if BJ Upton doesn’t want a contract extension, certainly The Garza Complex is next on the Rays’ list. Garza edges out James Shields by the slimmest of margins due almost entirely to being two years younger. But Shields’ contract makes this a virtual tie.
• Carl Crawford continues to slowly slide down the list as we near the end of his team-friendly contract and as it is becoming more clear that he may have already peaked as a player.
• Dioner Navarro and Andy Sonnanstine both crack the top 11. Neither is flashy, but both get the job done and have been keys to the Rays’ success this year. And oh yeah, both are young and cheap and will be around for a while.
• Wade Davis‘ strong start in triple-A has him eyeing a trip to the Rays’ bullpen in the fall and into our top 10.
• As we have always said…Show us something at double-A before we get too excited. Jeremy Hellickson has done just that and Hellboy shoots into the top 15.
• A lot of luster has come off of several players including Jeff Niemann, Carlos Pena and Chris Mason, but none have fallen farther than Jake McGee, who at this point has little value. As he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, he will inch back up the list, but until he shows he is 100%, there will be doubts. Also keep in mind that he wasn’t exactly lighting double-A on fire before the injury either.
• This year’s top pick, Tim Beckham, is a bit of a mystery. He has struggled early on in rookie ball. Still, he signed early and he will have that much more experience when ’09 rolls around. He is young. He would be much higher in other organizations, but the Rays have a ton of young, cheap talent that have already proven themselves. We need to see something before he gets much higher on this list, even if he was the top pick in the draft.
• Several players are lower on the list than their talent alone would necessitate. For example, Troy Percival is only #22. He retains a little value as a closer with tons of experience and his leadership qualities and the Rays do have him under control for ’09. But he is 39, he is overweight, has been on the DL 26 times this year and we get the sense that his career could end at any moment. A player like Al Reyes has almost no value due to his age, recent injuries and because he is a free agent after the season. Cliff Floyd is in a similar situation. Floyd is broken-down. The Rays couldn’t possibly trade him if they wanted to. He is a DH-only and they are not about to trade him to another AL contender, even if his health status is handcuffing the roster. And there are indications from Floyd that he will retire after the season. Eric Hinske is also a free agent at the end of the year, which takes away from his value.

With only days to go before the regular season, trade talks are heating up with the Rays who are still in the market for a right fielder and have several pitchers that are out of options, including Scott Dohmann, Grant Balfour, and Jason Hammel.

Therefore it is time to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…

The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep. If the answer is player A, he would be ranked ahead of player B.

The TVI is not based on player potential. Rather the rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton firmly entrenched in center field for years to come. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” position player because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level.

We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be. Or not.

Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.

[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]

Click HERE or on the rankings for the entire list 1-59

A couple of notes on the rankings…

• The top of the rankings are much closer than many might think. Scott Kazmir is Scott Kazmir. On the other hand, James Shields is a little more of a mystery. If he can show that 2007 was not a fluke, he is under team control for the next seven years at a reasonable price. That is very valuable commodity.
• If BJ Upton can show that his high strikeout totals are nothing to be concerned about he is the new Carl Crawford. That is he is the Rays outfielder that all Yankees fans wish they had but for once they can’t just go out and buy him or trade whatever is in the system for him.
  
• David Price slides a few spots after his latest arm troubles that will delay his professional debut and put a nail in the coffin of any chance he might have had about a major league debut in 2008.
• Dioner Navarro gets a very strong ranking based on the shortage of young major league catchers and a strong second half offensively. There are many teams that would love to have a Navi in their lineup.
• In general veteran relief pitchers are ranked higher than their talent levels because those are the most sought-after commodities by contending teams.
• JP Howell is rising fast because of his new role as lefty relief pitcher that is good for 2-3 innings.
  
• For the prospects we always place a stronger value on players that have performed at the AA or AAA levels. As many of you know already we believe a player like Fernando Perez is more valuable than Desmond Jennings because he is closer to the majors even if Jennings may one day be the better major leaguer.