Tampa Bay Rays (10 days until Opening Day)

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Indians 4.

The Good: Dioner Navarro continues his hot spring, going 2-2 with a double, home run and a walk. He is now 11-28 (.393) on the spring with 2 doubles, 2 home runs and a OPS. Elliot Johnson and Reid Brignac Durham’s likely double-play tandem successfully turned a pair of twin-killings.

The Bad: Jason Hammel wasn’t terrible, but he really needed a strong showing to get his name back in consideration for the rotation. In 4.1 innings, he gave up 3 runs on 4 hits, 2 walks and a hit batter…Same can be said for Jeff Niemann. He was a little better, but his 4 innings of 1-run ball came against the B-teamers and he did walk 2 and give up 5 hits while striking out only 1.

The Telling: Jonny Gomes played 5 innings in center field as Joe Maddon continues to look fir a suitable backup…Joel Guzman got the start at third base. With Willy Aybar nursing a sore hamstring, Guzman stands to be the backup third baseman if Evan Longoria is demoted. A start at third suggests that Maddon wants to get Guzman some work at the hot corner in preparation for the regular season. It was not a case of giving Longoria a day off as he came in and played the second half of the game.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Yesterday, the brilliant, highly esteemed, good-lookin’, greatest writer in the universe, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote a piece focusing on our “Dirtbag-O-Meter”. Neyer argues that the Rays should use the money they could potentially save by having Evan Longoria begin the season in the minors and buy some goodwill with the fans by keeping The Dirtbag in the majors. [ESPN]

Two opinions: 1. Management wants Longoria to open the season in the minors, if only because it might save the franchise a few million bucks down the line. and 2. Management really, really wishes Longoria wasn’t doing quite so well this month.

• Both BJ Upton and Akinori Iwamura had to be removed from yesterday’s game due to injury. Neither injury appears serious. [Tampa Tribune]
• Rays of Light thinks the Rays have no choice now but to keep Evan Longoria on the roster for opening day. Considering the recent comments by Carl Crawford they correct conclude that it is a tricky situation the team has created telling the players they want to win, but then send the team’s best spring performer down to the minors. [Rays of Light]
• If Evan Longoria is reassigned to minor league camp, he won’t be the only top prospect in baseball that will have to wait a little longer. The Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce, Baseball America’s top-rated prospect (Longoria was #2) will start the season at AAA. [Baseball America]
• The Ledger says “Jason Hammel appears likely to start the season in the Rays’ pitching rotation unless the decision is his to make.” We are going to have to agree with Hammel on this one when he says ” “Honestly, there’s other guys who have thrown better than me.” We know Hammel is out of options, but Niemann deserves the shot before Hammel. At least in the case of Jackson, he has shown that he can be dominant. Hammel has never shown that. [The Ledger]
  
• David Chalk argues that the Yankees level of failure in the 21st Century exceeds that of every other team, including the Devil Rays. He actually makes a pretty convincing argument. In essence Tampa Bay has met expectations. The same cannot be said of the Evil Empire. [Bugs & Cranks]
• Not only has Wade Townsend healthy for the first time in years, but he enters 2008 with more velocity than ever on his fastball. [Tampa Bay Rays]

“My velocity and the curveball are the best they have been,” he said. “It’s just a matter of going out there and transforming that into performances this year, and hopefully I’ll start as high as I can go.”

• Baseball Crank published their 2008 AL East projection and have the Rays finishing 4th with only 71 wins. While the 88 wins projected by PECOTA seems a little high, this number seems a little low. We are also skeptical of a projection that gives the Yankees 101 wins and the Red Sox only 88. [Baseball Crank]
• Brittany Ghiroli points out that Gary Glover, Dan Wheeler and Trever Miller have all been able to work on consecutive days recently in an effort to get them ready for the regular season. Joe Maddon also notes that he is trying to get Miller more work against lefties in the spring, a scenario that is difficult with so many pitchers needing work. [Tampa Bay Rays]

“We want to get those guys some innings. Plus, when you are able to stretch these guys out over here [at Al Lang Field], that’s less time on this side of things,” Maddon said. “Sending guys over there just to get some work and match them up is ideal for us…You just don’t want the first time they’re going back-to-back to be at the beginning of the regular season,” Hickey said.

• So far Joe Maddon likes what he has seen from Akinori Iwamura at second base and notes that there is already a strong chemistry between he and Jason Bartlett. [Tampa Bay Rays]

“Any time you go from this side to that side, the runner is coming in at your back,” Maddon said. “[But] I see him staying in there really well on the double play. I see him throwing really hard and accurately to first.”…Maddon added that Iwamura has been equally as sharp on the mental side of playing second, noting he has been in the right place every time on bunts, cutoffs and relays. Maddon also likes the chemistry that has developed between Iwamura and shortstop Jason Bartlett….”[Bartlett] has really helped the transition for Aki by just the way he is, his personality and his character. He’s embraced having Aki there. You see it all the time. They’re together constantly, and I watch the conversation. They’re really cut from the same cloth emotionally. They are both confident young men — and because of that, they have both hit it off.”

• Outs Per Swing takes a look at some of the players that may end up on waivers for the Rays to pick up as a fourth outfielder. [Outs Per Swing]
• Beyond the Boxscore takes a look at how much of Carl Crawford’s game is owed to his speed and tries to predict what type of player Crawford would be if he had average speed. [Beyond the Boxscore]
• Bleacher Report names the best players to play each position for the Rays in their first ten seasons. [Bleacher Report]
• Stacy Long projects where some of the Rays top prospects will begin the season. [Riverwalk Talk]
  

Tampa Bay Rays (35 days until Opening Day)

Over the weekend, Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times explored the Evan Longoria situation and asked whether he is ready for to be on the Rays opening day roster.

“I worked hard in the offseason, and I really do feel I have a legit chance of breaking with the club,” Longoria said. “I’m not there yet, but I’m definitely ready.”

The Rays don’t know. Not yet anyway.

They expect him to be in the majors at some point this season and are confident that – eventually – he’s going to be really good.

Topkin is correct in saying that this is the biggest decision for the Rays this off-season. But where we get lost is when the Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon list what they are looking for from Longoria and the main reason that they are hesitant to name The Dirtbag the opening day third baseman.

Friedman and manager Joe Maddon say they’ll consider a series of factors beyond actual performance and results, everything from how Longoria carries himself and interacts in the clubhouse; his thought process at the plate and how he makes adjustments during, and between, at-bats; his preparation, work ethic and knowledge of the game; how he plays defense and does the “little” things. And they’ll try to gauge other things more subjective such as how he’d handle the frustrations of what would be his first extended slump as a pro.

This is not the first time that the team has stated their concern over the fact that Longoria has yet to experience a slump as a professional. Let’s gloss over the fact that Longoria actually did struggle a bit when he was first promoted to AAA Durham last year.

If this is the biggest concern the Rays have with Longoria, then they have no concerns. “He has never slumped” is not a reason to keep somebody in the minors. “He can’t handle curveballs” or “He smokes too much weed” are reasons to keep somebody in the minors. “He is too good” is not.

Don’t get us wrong. This is something to care about. You want to know that the player will be able to fight his way out of a slump. But it is asinine to think that this is the main reason to keep from promoting your best prospect. Longoria is too good of a hitter. He was born to hit a baseball. At some point he is going to slump. He will be fine.

Longoria: Read? Or Not? [St. Pete Times]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Joe Maddon has made it clear: The right field/DH triangle is not going to be divided equally. Cliff Floyd will be the primary DH. And depending on his health, Maddon would prefer that Rocco Baldelli be the right fielder on most days. Whatever is left over will go to Jonny Gomes. [Tampa Tribune]

“They’re all tied together,” said Rays manager Joe Maddon. “First of all, we have to determine how many games Rocco can play out there. Rocco would be the dominant defensive player if you have the choice. Once you find out what Rocco can do, you go with Jon, defensively, for me. … Cliff, I really don’t want to get him out there too often. I think that would be unwise. He’s going to play some outfield, but the least we do of that, the better off he’s going to be and we’re going to be.

• We are a little confused. First Joe Maddon stated that Brian Anderson “threw really well today…[he] may be a little ahead of what we thought”. But then Maddon followed up that comment by saying that Anderson “is on task according to what we set up”. Seems contradictory. If Anderson is healthy, and throwing well, he is a wildcard that could present the Rays with a pleasant problem in the bullpen. As of now, Trever Miller is the lefty specialist. JP Howell also has a very strong chance of making the bullpen as a long/middle reliever. It will be interesting to see how the team handles the situation if they deem Anderson major league-ready. [Herald-Tribune]
• The Bradenton Herald takes a look at the unorthodox route taken by Fernando Perez in his quest to become a major league baseball player. [Bradenton Herald]
• The Bradenton Herald thinks that Carl Crawford and the rest of the Rays should just ignore Delmon Young. We agree that Young is full of hot air and that it was inevitable that he would say something and that nothing further should be said. However, we are glad that Crawford said what he said and glad he said it in the manner in which he said it. When you are a franchise that gets zero respect in baseball circles, Crawford’s comments sent a message that no longer are the Rays going to all others to disrespect them. [Bradenton Herald]
• David Chalk of Bugs & Cranks continues his preview of each team by comparing them to the Devil Rays. These are must-reads. [Bugs & Cranks]
• Baseball Mastermind ranks the AL clubs. The Rays come in 9th, saying they are “here to stay” but with legitimate concerns about the bullpen. [Baseball Mastermind]

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (37 days until opening day)

DRG here again to get you through the weekend…

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• I love this story…In 1990 Joe Maddon was a minor league instructor for the Angels. Troy Percival was a single-A catcher that could barely hit .200. The team wanted to make Percy a pitcher. What was Maddon’s response? Maddon said it would be a mistake to switch to pitcher.[ Bradenton Herald]

“I’ll teach you how to hit,” said Joe Maddon, a hitting coach in the California Angels’ instructional league in 1990…So Maddon met Percival in the batting cage, bringing with him all the tricks he used to make hitters out of young hitters who couldn’t hit…Maddon tried to shorten Percival’s swing; tried to get the ball to jump off Percival’s bat…Nothing worked…”Turns out he was just a bad hitter,” Maddon said.

• Trever Miller hit Carl Crawford with a pitch this morning in batting practice. Trever, today is not the day, dude. Not the day. Not sure if you noticed, but CC is not in the best of moods right now. [The Heater]
• Joe Henderson remarks on how refreshing it was to hear Carl Crawford step-up and be heard concerning Delmon Young. According to Henderson, the Rays needed that sign of leadership and Crawford was just the man to do it. [Tampa Tribune]

Whether [Delmon Young] was challenging Maddon’s authority, or swinging for a hit on an 0-2 pitch over his head instead of trying to move a runner along, he made sure the chip on his shoulder was never out of sight…So when somebody asks how you trade a player who was just runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year, that’s how…Crawford Steps Up…someone in the Rays clubhouse needed to actually say out loud what everybody already knew, and what better person for that than Crawford…If it’s going to change, Crawford has to lead the way. This is a great start.

• Al Reyes does not look at his move from closer to set-up man as a demotion, but rather as an opportunity to make the bullpen better. [Tampa Tribune]

Reyes said he thinks the offseason overhaul has given the Rays “one of the best bullpens in the league.” At the very least, the hope is that the relievers will be able to carry their own weight and not drag the rest of the team down as they often did last year. Dropping lead after lead in the late innings can’t help but take a psychological toll.

• Jeff Passan recounts how Rocco Baldelli has gone from once promising star to a bit of an enigma. Baldelli’s only goal for 2008 is to stay healthy. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Dick Vitale took time from preparing for tonight’s 1 vs. 2 matchup in college basketball to talk about the Rays. [Bradenton Herald]

Tampa Bay Rays (6 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just the links this morning…we will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We thought we were going to have to retire our #40 Bucs jersey permanently, but it looks like it will get at least one more day in the sun dome. Mike Alstott will throw out the first pitch at the Rays home opener. Might there actually be more Bucs jerseys in the stands than Rays jerseys during the home opener. Magic 8 Ball says ‘Absolutely’. [TampaBay.com]
  
• Rays of Light breaks down how Trever Miller has fared against some of the better left-handed bats in the AL East. Verdict is, Miller will make a strong situational lefty for the Rays. [Rays of Light]
• Despite his most recent spat of legal issues, Willy Aybar is expected to join the team for the beginning of Spring Training. [TampaBay.com]
• Carlos Pena is only 50-1 to hit the most home runs in baseball in 2008. The Rays are currently 200-1 to win the World Series, tied with 5 other teams for the longest odds. They are 100-1 to win the AL, tied with the Orioles and the Royals and 50-1 to win the AL East, ahead of the Orioles at 100-1. The Red Sox are the current faves to win the World Series at 7-2, trailed closely by the Mets and the Yankees, both at 5-1. [Vegas Watch]
• Curt Schilling has a serious shoulder injury that may ultimately require season-ending surgery. This makes us giggle a little. Not because we enjoy schadenfreude, but because we wonder if those few people still think it would have been such a great idea to have him on the Rays for 2008. That would have been money well spent. [Boston Herald]
• The St. Pete City Council voted yesterday to accept community input on the fate of the land that is currently the home of Al Lang Field, if the area is not used for the Rays new stadium. a portion of the community would like to see the area become a park. [TBO]

Tampa Bay Rays (7 days until pitchers and catchers report)
The Rays signed a pair of players yesterday. Relief pitcher Trever Miller was signed to a one year contract that will pay him $1.6 million this season with a $2 million team option in 2009. Miller previously pitched for the Rays in 2004 and 2005. As a left-handed relief pitcher, Miller fills the last remaining hole in the Rays 2008 opening day roster. With five of the seven bullpen spots now spoken for (Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover and Miller) that leaves two jobs up for grabs. One of those spots (long reliever) will be filled by one of the starting pitchers that does not make the rotation (likely Jason Hammel). The final spot is likely to be a spring training battle between Juan Salas, Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour.

The Rays also brought in former rookie of the year, Eric Hinske on a minor league contract. He will make $800,000 if he makes the team. Hinske was signed despite news that domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped in the Dominican Republic. Hinske is being brought in as insurance in case Aybar is not fit to be either the starting third baseman or part of a platoon with Joel Guzman. Hinske appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox last year playing first base, left field and right field, hitting .204-6-21. Hinske could also conceivably become part of the right field rotation, as the team has made it clear that they prefer Cliff Floyd be the team’s DH and Rocco Baldelli may be limited to start the season.

While he have heard rumblings that the Hinske deal is similar to the situation in which the Rays brought in Carlos Pena last year, everybody needs to temper their excitement. The Rays also brought in Hee Seop Choi last year and now he is out of baseball. Hinske has not hit more than 15 home runs in a season since his rookie year of 2002. That includes four seasons in which he has appeared in more than 100 games. Pena had shown that he could at least hit for power when he was given regular playing time, with 27 dingers in 2004 and 18 home runs in half a season in 2005. In short, we would guess that he and Joel Guzman have an equal shot at the last roster spot.

Finally, it is not too much of a stretch to assume that the trade for Aybar and the signing of Hinske suggest that the Rays have decided to keep Evan Longoria in the minor leagues to start the 2008 season.

Miller’s contract brings the Rays payroll above $43 million.

Miller reunited with Rays [DevilRays.com]
Rays Sign Hinske [MLB Trade Rumors]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are not sure if the title “The Eric Hinske Era Ends” is a reflection of his time in Boston ending or his time with the Rays beginning…or both. [Surviving Grady]
• The Rays apparently tried to sign Dallas McPherson, prior to trading for Willy Aybar. [Sun-Sentinel]
• How many other teams have a GM that is so dedicated that he will appear on a blog radio show that has about 20 listeners? Andrew Friedman will be a guest on “Baseball Talk” on BlogTalkRadio this Sunday at 11:00 AM. [BlogTalkRadio]
• The domestic violence charges against Willy Aybar have been dropped. [TampaBay.com]
• Bill Chastain continues his “Around the Horn” series in which he examines each of the Rays’ “positions”. This week it is the bullpen. [DevilRays.com]
• Sox1Fan takes a look at the Rays top 10 prospects. [Sox1Fan]
• Opponents of the Rays proposed stadium are expected to make an appearance at this morning’s St. Pete city council meeting. The protesters want to see the site of Al Lang Field turned into a park. [TBO]
• The Bleacher Report says there is a lot to be optimistic about with the Rays this year. [Bleacher Report]
• Mets fans can take solace in the fact they finally got back the pitcher they gave up for Victor Zambrano. Wait? You mean it wasn’t Jose Diaz you wanted back? [Mets Fever]

Tampa Bay Rays (24 days until pitchers and catchers report)
DRays Bay looks at the history of Japanese position players that have made the switch to Major League Baseball and their improvement (or lack thereof) from year one to year two. History does not bode well for Akinori Iwamura as only Hideki Matsui improved significantly and the other five players on the list showed a decline in OPS in their second year. This does not worry us at all. Of the players on the list, only Matsui had to significantly alter his approach at the plate when he came to the US.

When he came to the Yankees, Matsui hit only 16 home runs in his first season, despite hitting 40 home runs in three of his 11 seasons in Japan. In year two, Matsui made adjustments to the pitchers, the bigger parks and improved his home run total to 31. More impressive was that even though he was starting to hit more home runs, he recognized that he was never going to be the same home run hitter in the US as he was in Japan and transformed himself into a doubles machine. In 11 seasons in Japan, Matsui only exceeded 30 doubles on three occasions with a career-high of 34. Matsui exceeded those totals in his first three seasons with the Yankees with season totals of 42, 34 and 45 doubles.

Of the other five players on that list, only Kazuo Matsui ever hit as much as 30 home runs in one season in Japan. None of those players had to make the adjustment from power-hitter, to good all-around hitter.

In his two seasons prior to coming to the Devil Rays, Iwamura had home run totals of 44 and 32 (in 2003 Iwamura hit 12 home runs in 60 games, which projects to 30 over the course of a full season). Nobody expected Iwamura to come in and hit 35 home runs for the Rays. In fact, Iwamura predicted 20 home runs. When the season was over, his home run total was 7, a fry cry from his Japan League totals and his own prediction. However, the drop-off in power mimicked that of Matsui in 2003.

We are not expecting Iwamura to rebound and hit 30 home runs in 2008, but it would not surprise us if his power numbers see a significant boost in season two. By the end of the season we expect to see that Iwamura’s home run total is on par with his prediction entering last season (20) and we also expect to see a significant bump in doubles (21 in 2007). If that occurs, Iwamura will not only improve his OPS in year two, he will establish himself as one of the top-hitting second basemen in baseball.

Aki to battle recent history [DRays Bay]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Considerable debate was raised over our criticism of Joe Maddon’s “goal” of 81 wins. While we ackowledge he wants more than 81 wins, we felt it was poorly worded and it is the wording that the fans and the players will gravitate towards. In Marc Topkin’s most recent piece, Stuart Sternberg did a much better job of conveying the team’s perception of what is accepted of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. “The goal is to get the organization to a place where we feel coming in we should win 80-something games, and if things break right you win 8-10 more and if things break badly you win 10 less,” he said. “We’re pretty much there. Being in a position to win 65 with the chance to win 75 is not acceptable.” In Sterberg’s words, this is an 80-win team with a chance to be a 90-win team if things break right for the Rays. This was our point from the beginning. Papa Joe made it sound like the Rays are a 75-win team and we should all be happy if they won 81 games. Sternberg’s and our position is that this incarnation of the Rays should win 80 games, and anything less would be a disappointment. [TampaBay.com]
• Further down in the same piece, Topkin reports that the Rays are in talks with left-handed reliever Trever Miller, but that length of contract remains a sticking point. [TampaBay.com]
• MLB Trade Rumors takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in their latest installment of “Needs and Luxuries”. With the piece, MLBTR addresses this season’s lineup and looks ahead to 2009 and some of the changes the Rays could have in store when they make a serious push for the playoffs. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Baseball America takes a look at the 2008 draft and upon further review…yep…The Devil Rays did suck last year more than any other team (again) and will have the top pick on the draft. Jim Callis speculates that the Rays could take high school shortstop Tim Beckham, over college third baseman Pedro Alvarez. [Baseball America]

The Rays have a lot of quality pitching coming through their pipeline, but teams always want more and they could opt for one of the top college arms, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow or San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Tampa Bay has gone with pitchers with three of its last four top picks, so my gut feel is they’ll be more inclined to go for a bat. It says here they’ll opt for Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham over Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez because Beckham plays a more premium position. I still think Alvarez is going to become a first baseman or left fielder by the time he reaches the majors

For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake's Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor's Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake's Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor's Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake's Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor's Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake's Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor's Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake's Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor's Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor's Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake's Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor's Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake's Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better pitcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor's Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake's Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor's Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.

For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake's Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor's Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake's Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor's Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake's Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor's Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake's Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor's Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake's Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor's Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor's Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake's Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor's Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake's Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better p
  itcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor's Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake's Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor's Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.