Jan 27
The fine group over at The Hardball Times have just released their 2009 Season Preview.
The bulk of the Season Preview consists of team essays, player comments, and projections. In all, we have 1,050 player projections and comments in the book, meaning that we’ve covered just about anyone who might have an impact on the 2009 baseball season. In addition, purchasers of the Season Preview will have access to a spreadsheet with over 2,600 projections.
The writers featured in the Season Preview are not just some random schmucks we pulled off the street (well, except for John Brattain), but some of the best bloggers on the internet writing about the teams they follow every day. Who better to tell you about the Arizona Diamondbacks than Jim McLennan? And who knows more about the Seattle Mariners than Jeff Sullivan?
For some reason, the editors have once again asked us to write the preview for the Tampa Bay Rays. While we do a fair bit of writing in our day jobs, we have never fancied ourselves as professional writers. We are just Rays fans with something to say and a computer. As for the book…we can only hope we have not embarrassed ourselves.
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Read the rest of The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 Is Now Available (74 words)
Nov 03
Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems ( Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.
Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 92-70, showing that the Rays played 5 games better than would be predicted based on their run differential (by comparison, the Red Sox record of 95-67 matched their Pythagorean record).
CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays breakout, but still came 10 wins short of the actual number, giving the Rays a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. At the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS, Diamond Mind and The Hardball Times all projected a losing record for the Rays. ZiPS and Diamond Mind gave the Rays less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.
While all of the projections predicted the Rays would score more runs in 2008, the Rays actually scored 8 fewer runs. On the other side of the ball, the Rays were projected to allow over 140 fewer runs this season. The actual number was 273 fewer runs given up by the pitching staff.
The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]
Mar 26
Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80.
In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”.
The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2008 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2008 season using player projections from six different sources including
For more details on the individual projection systems and their level of historical accuracy, go HERE.
Now let’s take a look at how the Rays are projected for the 2008 season…
A few notes on the projections…
- We previously mentioned that single iterations of the 2008 season using PECOTA and CHONE projection systems gave the Rays 88 and 89 wins respectively. At the time we tried to temper the excitement because they were only a single piece of data. We now see that both systems have slightly lower numbers when projected over 1,000 seasons.
- These projections are based on a healthy Scott Kazmir.
- Even the most conservative projection for the pitching staff (Diamond Mind) has the Rays allowing 100 fewer runs in 2008 while PECOTA has them bettering their ERA by over a run a game.
- The average projections look a little like what I think most Rays fans would expect. A .500 record and about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs if things break the right way.
We now have a mathemtical definition for “No Chance in Hell” [Rays Index]
2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’ [Rays Index]
Feb 11
The fine group over at The Hardball Times have just released their 2008 Season Preview.
This year’s effort includes 240 pages of team essays, player comments for almost 900 different players, projections, and other goodies. We’ve adopted Bill James’ “Team-in-a-Box” format for the essays and tried to maintain a similarly short and incisive style in the player comments.
For some reason, the editors have once again asked us to write the preview for the Tampa Bay Rays. While we do a fair bit of writing in our day jobs, we have never fancied ourselves as professional writers. We are just Rays fans with something to say and a computer. As for the book…we can only hope we have not embarrassed ourselves.
HERE is a sample chapter
HERE is a little sampler of the things that can be found in the book
And if you are interested in ordering a copy, HERE is the link for that.
[Disclaimer: No actual Rays, be them fish or sunlight, were injured during the production of this book]
Its the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 [The Hardball Times]
Mar 21
*Insert shameless self-promotion disclaimer here*
If you have ever wondered what this site would be like if we cut-loose in a Bill Simmons-style and rambled on for a few thousand words, here is your chance. Head on over to The Hardball Times today. They have been running their “Five Questions:” features for every team and today is “Five Questions: Tampa Bay Devil Rays“, written by your truly, where we try to answer such tantalizing questions as “How good can Carl Crawford be?” and “Can Jeff Niemann be the #2 starter that the Rays desperately need?” and “Will the Rays trade one of their talented young outfielders?” It is yet another case of somebody mistaking us for real writers. Either that or they needed somebody to write about the Rays and they realized there wasn’t a whole lot to choose from.
Five Questions: Tampa Bay Devil Rays [The Hardball Times]
Mar 06
The fine group over at The Hardball Times have just released their 2007 Season Preview. The book features previews for all 30 teams, as well as three-year projections for all Major League players and select minor leaguers. For some reason, unbeknownst to us, they asked us to write the Rays preview. While we do a fair bit of writing in our day jobs, we have never fancied ourselves as professional writers. We are just Rays fans with something to say and a computer. As for the book…we can only hope we have not embarrassed ourselves.
[Disclaimer: No actual Rays were injured during the production of this book]
If you are curious about ordering a copy, head on over to Lulu.
