Archive for the 'The Bullpen doesn’t suck?' Category

Sep 14

The Chance of Opportunity

01. Players, Andy Sonnanstine, Dirk Hayhurst, Feed your mind, Garfoose!, It Gets Better, James Shields, Jordi Scrubbings, pitching is not crowded, Statistical projection, The Bullpen doesn't suck?, Things that make us giddy, Things that should have never happened Jordi Scrubbings 5 Comments »

Our correspondent Jordi Scrubbings is back with his latest installment…

As we venture deeper into the bowels of September, many Rays fans, announcers, bloggers, and baseball pundits have taken to talking “chances”. We are all looking at the remaining schedule, counting games, evaluating opponents and match-ups, and figuring out what the Rays have to do to make the postseason and prolong our baseball entertainment.

(Yes, we’re selfish. We want the team to win because we tie a piece of our happiness to the outcome of a baseball game. It’s cool. Don’t be embarrassed. That’s why we’re here.)

At its very foundation, baseball and chances go hand and hand. Baseball is a game of percentages and numbers, risks and rewards. We talk about runners taking chances on the basepaths and managers moving defenders around the field to minimizing the chance a batter will get a hit. Many of these chances are mathematical, much like playing dice. And this of course is the origin of statistical analysis, so-called SABRmetrics, and the guiding forces behind the Rays hovel of super secret number-crunching Keebler elves.

But baseball has another type of chance, a more personal “chance of opportunity”. Derived in many cases by mathematical chances, the chance of opportunity is what creates our narratives, our stories, our legends, and our heroes. Kirk Gibson, for example, would never have been a World Series hero if not for the opportunity to bat against Dennis Eckersley in October 1988. Lou Gehrig would never have been able to embark on his legendary career if not for the opportunity to replace then-regular Yankee first baseman Wally Pipp. Even Jackie Robinson’s historic 1947 season wouldn’t have happened if not for the opportunity given to him by Branch Rickey.

The 2011 Rays have been chock full of Read the rest of this entry »

Aug 27

[GHOST OF SHAWN CAMP] Rays Bullpen No Longer Giving Free Passes To Inherited Runners

The Bullpen doesn't suck? Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

In today’s stat-driven world there are any of a thousand ways to evaluate a player or team. But for all the Sabermetrics, maybe the most important stat for a relief pitcher is still the number of inherited runners they allow to score. Baseball is still about scoring runs and preventing runs and the toughest run for a pitcher to prevent is the one that is already on base.

Last year the Rays were the worst team in baseball at preventing inherited base runners from scoring. As a team they ranked last, allowing 41.8% (114 of 273) of inherited runners to score.

We all know the bullpen is improved in 2008, but by how much? Let’s take a look at this season’s numbers compared to last year.

From worst to first in preventing inherited runners from scoring and from worst to first in the standings.

Now let’s take a look at the individual contributors over the past two seasons…


Of the 5 pitchers that faced at least 20 inherited runners last season, only 1(!) allowed fewer than 40% of the inherited runners to score. This season, all 4 of the pitchers that have faced at least 20 inherited runners are below 20%.

It seems impossible that a team could improve their bullpen this drastically in one season. We are not talking about one or two pieces. We are talking about seven new pieces and all of them being better than any of the pieces in the bullpen last season.

Oh, Shawn Bleepin’ Camp…How we haven’t missed you.

Jan 06

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 12 Days Of Raysmas: Day 12 (Twelve Major League Pitchers)

Rotation Battle Royal, The Bullpen doesn't suck? Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the twelfth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, TWELVE major league pitchers on the 25-man roster…

Let’s take a look back at the 2007 Tampa Bay Rays and the twelve pitchers that made the opening day roster and their final VORP values…


PITCHER VORP
Scott Kazmir 45.8
Jae Seo -18.7
James Shields 44.0
Casey Fossum -20.9
Edwin Jackson -9.5
Al Reyes 5.1
Ruddy Lugo 2.6
Gary Glover 6.8
Shawn Camp -6.6
Juan Salas 4.9
JK Ryu -3.7
Brian Stokes -8.0


(not a typo…Seo opened the season as the Rays #2 starter…seriously)

VORP for a pitcher is the number of runs prevented (positive VORP) or given up (negative VORP) in comparison to a replacement-level player. For example, if Scott Kazmir had been injured before the season and the Rays replaced him in the rotation with a “freely available” pitcher (a slightly below average pitcher that is a free agent) the replacement pitcher would have allowed approximately 46 more runs over the course of a season.

As can be seen from numbers, six Devil Rays pitchers posted VORP values in 2007 below replacement-level. In other words if the Rays would have cut those six players prior to the season and just signed six random cheap free agent pitchers, the Rays would have allowed approximately 68 fewer runs.

The Rays began to address this problem during the 2007 season, as two of the biggest culprits, Fossum and Seo were dropped from the rotation and replaced by Andy Sonnanstine and Jason Hammel. The Rays then made a significant improvement to the bullpen with a trade that landed Dan Wheeler. The makeover continued this off-season with the acquisitions of Matt Garza and Troy Percival.

While the rotation and bullpen were much improved by the end of the 2007 season, there is still significant work to be done. Even with those additions there are still two spots in the rotation and at least two spots in the bullpen that will potentially be filled with a player that is a marginal major leaguer at best. There is still time to add more major league talent to the roster through a trade or free agency, but that will count for two pitchers, at most. That leaves at least two and as many as five pitchers that will begin the season on the Rays’ roster that will need to significantly improve their performance.

Last season, the Devil Rays opened the season with six pitchers with a negative VORP value. That is six pitchers that did not deserve to be on a major league roster in 2007. In essence, the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays opened the season with only six major league pitchers on their staff. If the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays are going to take a significant step forward, they will need twelve pitchers on the staff.

On the twelfth day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is TWELVE major league pitchers, and…
ELEVEN walk-off wins [Day 11]
TEN meaningful games in September [Day 10]
NINE no-hit innings from Scott Kazmir [Day 9]
EIGHT ejections for Joe Maddon [Day 8]
SEVEN relatively healthy months of Rocco Baldelli [Day 7]
SIX months with at least 14 wins [Day 6]
FIVE players with at least 25 home runs [Day 5]
FOUR winning records against AL East foes [Day 4]
THREE AL All-Stars [Day 3]
TWO new pitchers in the rotation by the all-star break [Day 2]
ONE Evan Longoria in the opening day lineup [Day 1]

Aug 02

The Hangover: So THIS Is What A Major League Bullpen Looks Like

Andrew Friedman, Jason Hammel, Raul Casanova, The Bullpen doesn't suck? Cork Gaines 1 Comment »


Devil Rays 6, Blue Jays 2.
Thank you Mr. Friedman. Thank you. It’s not the ’96 Yankees or the ’02 Angels or the ’06 Tigers. Hell, it is still not even the ’06 Pirates. But for the first time in two years, it is not the Long Island Ducks either.

So this is what a major league bullpen looks like? We had heard rumors. Apparently there are teams in this league with bullpens that don’t give up 4 runs every night. Apparently other teams have relief pitchers that don’t allow inherited runners to score on a consistent basis. We had heard rumors and now we get to see it with our own eyes.

For the first time in recent memory. Hell, for the first time in our long-term memory, the Devil Rays bullpen dominated a series. The Rays won two of three for the Jays in which the bullpen combined to throw 13.1 innings, allowing 8 hits, 5 walks while striking out 11. But the most important stat was 1. As in 1 run in three games. In the first 4 months of the season, most Devil Rays pitchers allowed a run just walking in from the bullpen.

Thank you Mr. Friedman. There is still work to be done, but we can see the difference already and it is more than the bullpen. The players look more confident. They look like they are having fun again.

Now if we could get a dependable veteran arm in the rotation next season and maybe, just maybe…nah. nevermind. Baby steps.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • Jason Hammel was pulled from the game after throwing 3 pitches in the 4th inning. It was originally termed shoulder tightness, and now looks like tendinitis. Hammel hopes to not miss a start. [Devil Rays]
  • David Gassko of The Hardball Times analyzes all of the trades from this past weekend and gushes over the deals that Andrew Friedman was able to pull off [The Hardball Times]

[On the acquisition of Dan Wheeler] And the Devil Rays make another spectacular acquisition for their bullpen! Andrew Friedman is quickly moving up the ranks as one of the smartest baseball executives around. Wheeler’s 5.07 ERA this season is deceiving: His xFIP is a solid 3.56, which is in line (actually, a little better) with his xFIPs the previous two seasons.

  • It has been a long and winding road for Carlos Pena but he appears to have found a home. [USA Today]
  • Raul Cassanova cleared waivers and was outrighted to Durham.