Archive for the 'Ryan Braun' Category

[EVAN LONGORIA] Media Incorrectly Predicts Timing Of Longoria’s Promotion

Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun 11 Comments »

We just wanted to take a moment to clarify a couple of erroneous reports yesterday in the mainstream media concerning the service time of Evan Longoria. Bill Chastain of MLB.com, Marty York of Canada Metro and John Romano of the St. Pete Times reported that the Tampa Bay Rays would be able to delay Longoria’s free agency clock by one year if he remains in the minors until the end of April.

From MLB.com: From a business standpoint, if Longoria begins the season with the team, he’d likely be eligible for free agency following the 2013 season. Meanwhile, delaying his Major League debut until mid-April would delay his free agency until after the 2014 season.

From Metro Canada: If Longoria opens the season with Tampa, he will likely be eligible for free agency after 2013. If he is in the minor leagues until late April, however, he can’t be a free agent until 2014.

From St. Pete Times: If Longoria is on the roster on March 31, he will probably be eligible for free agency after 2013. If he is in the minors until late April, he won’t be a free agent until after 2014.

The problem with this assessment is that a promotion at the end of April does not delay the arbitration clock which is of more importance for a player that the Rays hope to have around for longer than six years.

Normally a player is eligible for arbitration after 3 years and free agency after 6 years of service time. In baseball’s most recent collective bargaining agreement, a year of service time is defined as 172 days. However, of the players that fall shot of this mark, the top 17% with at least 2 years of service time are also granted arbitration eligibility. These players are called “Super 2s”. The exact amount of service time varies from year-to-year, but has been as low as 128 days and as high as 140 days although the number is usually 130-135.

If we count backwards from the end of the regular season (Sept. 28), a player that is called up on May 24 and remains on the roster for the remainder of the regular season will accumulate 128 days of service time. A player that is called up on May 12 would accumulate 140 days of service time.

The Rays will eventually want to sign Longoria to a long-term deal and the parameters of that deal will be more immediately affected by when Longoria becomes eligible for arbitration as that will be the first year that he can expect a large increase in annual salary.

So if we assume that Longoria plays well in Durham and the team does indeed consider service time in their plans, we can make an educated guess that Longoria will be promoted to the Rays on or after May 26 (Memorial Day). Promotion on this day would give Longoria 126 service days this year and in all likelihood will delay his arbitration/free agency clock by one year. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24 to promote him to the majors.

On May 26, the Rays will be in midst of a 10-game home stand and will be starting a new series on that day against the Rangers. In addition, if the Rays do get off to a solid start, the holiday plus the debut of The Dirtbag could push the crowd to record levels for a non-opening day, non-Yankees contest. Not to mention, the buzz of Longoria’s arrival could push attendance for all seven games remaining on that home stand.

It sure seems like Memorial Day works for both Longoria and the team. Mark your calendars. If Longoria is demoted to Durham, he will most likely make his major league debut on May 26…Not mid- or late-April as reported above.

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[THE SUNDAY MORNING REVOLUTION] Evan Longoria Wants A Chance To Prove He Belongs On The Opening Day Roster

Alex Gordon, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Matt Silverman, New Stadium, Rick Baker, Rocco Baldelli, Ryan Braun 3 Comments »

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (11 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Marc Lancaster believes the Rays are using the Royal’s Alex Gordon and Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun as case studies for their decision about where Evan Longoria will start the 2008 season. Gordon was the opening day third baseman for Kansas City while Braun began the season in AAA.

Gordon struggled early for the Royals hitting .173 in April and .195 in May. However, he rebounded in June hitting .327. Braun on the other hand started off hot in AAA, where he hit .342 with 10 home runs in the first month. He was then called up to the Brewers and continued his torrid pace hitting .349 in his first month.

If the Rays are indeed using Gordon and Braun as a barometer to help them decide where Longoria starts the 2008 season, then there is a very good chance we will not see the Dirtbag in a Rays uniform until June.

Longoria spoke publicly for the first time about the possibility of the Rays front office deciding prior to Spring Training where he will start the 2008 season. Longoria stated he would be disappointed if the Rays decided to keep him in Durham to start the season without at least giving him a chance to show what he can do in Spring Training.

“I heard they might tell me beforehand but not for sure, so I assume it will be based on how I do,” Longoria said from California. “It’s only fair. I feel I’m coming into spring a lot more ready than I was last year. I’d kind of be a little disappointed if they told me beforehand I didn’t have a chance to make the team.”

“If they are going to make the decision beforehand, I’d rather not know,” he said. “I’d rather go in, play my best and throw it all on the table. It’s only my second year, so it’s not like it’s a make-or-break year or anything, but a chance is always nice.”

I sure hope the Rays are not going to base their decision only on how Ryan Braun and Alex Gordon performed. There is nothing to suggest that Braun would not have hit well if he started the season in the majors and there is nothing to suggest that Gordon would not have struggled for two months even if he had started in the minors. In fact, one could argue that Gordon benefited from being given the opportunity to work out the kinks in the big leagues, knowing that his job was not in jeopardy, as opposed to struggling in the minors with a job on the line.

The biggest reason the Rays should not base this decision on Gordon and Braun is that they represent a sample size of 2. For every Alex Gordon that struggles in his first two months in the big leagues, I can give you a Dan Uggla who started the season in the majors and hit well all season long.

There may be reasons to keep Longoria in the minors for another month or two *cough, cough* arbitration *cough, cough*, but Alex Gordon and Ryan Braun should only be a minor reason if a reason at all.

Path to greatness [Tampa Tribune]
Prospect hopes to control fate [St. Pete Times]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

  • Marc Topkin also noted that Rocco Baldelli is already working out at the Rays Spring Training complex and says that Baldelli is running “almost all out”. [St. Pete Times]
  • Matt Silverman received honorable mention in a recent St. Pete Times survey of local businesses when asked “Who do you see emerging as the area’s top business leaders?” Making the top 9 was St. Petersburg mayor Rick Baker who the Times. The Times sees Bakers biggest business related task in 2008 being how he represents the citizens in the Rays quest for a new stadium. [St. Pete Times]
  • 43% of local businesses support the Rays proposed stadium. 37% do not. [St. Pete Times]
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are taking their fight for a new stadium door-to-door…literally. In the last two months the Rays have made presentations about the new stadium to more than 30 local neighborhood associations, rotary groups and chamber of commerce meetings. They have 26 more meetings scheduled between now and the beginning of the season. [St. Pete Times]
  • A profile of Carlos Pena and his emergence as a top hitter in the American League. [MetroWest Daily News]
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[THE HANGOVER] Edwin Jackson Now More Likely To Be On Rays Opening-Day Roster

Andrew Friedman, Edwin Jackson, Eric Bedard, Evan Longoria, Marc Topkin, Ryan Braun 1 Comment »

Tampa Bay Rays (17 days until pitchers and catchers report)
We hope you didn’t forget to add blueberries to your pancakes this morning. It is National Blueberry Pancake Day. But don’t worry. If you screwed that up, Joe Maddon will point out how well you tied your shoes this morning.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

  • There was never much life to the rumors of a potential deal to send Edwin Jackson to the Mariners. If there was a pulse, news that Eric Bedard has been traded to the M’s just killed it. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Mariners would still want Jackson, but they just acquired a much better starting pitcher and it cost them a king’s ransom (Adam Jones). [Seattle Times]
  • The Rays Way argues that Evan Longoria should start the season in AAA and cites the success of Ryan Braun and the mediocrity of Ryan Braun as examples of why. [The Rays Way]
  • Rays of Light points out that Marc Topkin wouldn’t make a very good General Manager. The “team” of free agents that Topkin suggests, reminds us a lot of the 2006 Royals, who brought in a bunch of “names” that people knew that really had poor career numbers. The were considered true “baseball players” and a great presence in the clubhouse. That team lost 100 games. [Rays of Light]
  • Bill Madden named Andrew Friedman as one of two GMs that had the best off-season. [Daily News]
  • Rays Digest points out that not everybody believes that the James Shields deal is a good one for the Rays. In addition, they project the Rays 2011 lineup, which we guess is made under the assumption that the Rays will not make any trades or sign any free agents and no players will get hurt in the next three seasons. Seems reasonable. [Rays Digest]
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