Archive for the 'Rotation Battle Royal' Category

Apr 14

[ROTATION] Rays Could Choose To Keep All The Starting Pitchers Once Healthy

Rotation Battle Royal Cork Gaines 20 Comments »

The following is not a typo…

The Rays are being carried by their pitching staff, one of the best in baseball.

After 12 games the Rays are 6-6 but it could be a lot worse if not for a team ERA of 3.86 good for 4th in the AL. In 2007 the Rays’ team ERA was 5.33. While the improved defense has ceraintly been a factor, the biggest difference may be the ability to throw strikes, walking 22.2% fewer batters this season. In 2007 the Rays walked 3.6 batters per 9 innings. So far in 2008, the Rays are walking 2.8 per 9 innings, good for 3rd in the AL. And this has been accomplished with staff ace Scott Kazmir on the shelf.

Despite strong early-season performances from Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann, the Rays will be forced to make a series of moves that will shake up the pitching staff sometime in May once Kazmir and Matt Garza reclaim their spots in the rotation.

Here is the projected rotation once everybody is healthy…

  1. Scott Kazmir
  2. James Shields
  3. Matt Garza
  4. Andy Sonnanstine
  5. Edwin Jackson

That means both Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann are out. If (and that’s a 6’9″ *if*) Niemann continues to pitch as well as he looked yesterday, it will be hard to justify sending him back to Durham. And there is the issue of Hammel’s minor league options. He has none.

The obvious play is for the Rays to trade either Hammel or Jackson. DRays Bay throws out some numbers that show Jackson has been lucky so far, and suggest that the Rays would be better off selling high on Jackson and keeping Hammel. The Rays will also certainly consider service time when deciding whom to trade. Jackson will be arbitration eligible at the end of the season and will be due a big pay raise, especially if he can continue to pitch well.

While we are certain that Andrew Firedman will be working the Blackberry in the next few weeks, a trade is far from a forgone conclusion, especially early in the season. So the question becomes: What do the Rays do with the surplus of pitching if they are unable to find a trade partner?

Keep ‘em all, of course.

If the Rays cannot trade Hammel or Jackson, Hammel would have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the minors (not likely). The only other option is to send Hammel to the bullpen. JP Howell made the bullpen as a long reliever out of spring training, but Joe Maddon has not been afraid to use him in shorter stints in meaningful games early in the season. That leaves an opening for Hammel to assume the role of long reliever. The Rays would then have to DFA Scott Dohmann who would be the 8th man in a 7-man bullpen.

That leaves Niemann. The most likely scenario has Niemann heading back to Durham as insurance for the rotation against any further injuries. However, there is a scenario that keeps him a Rays uniform.

During spring training, pitching coach Jim Hickey expressed that he would not be afraid to use Andy Sonnanstine in the bullpen. In fact, he seemed to prefer Sonnanstine in the bullpen over other options…

According to Hickey, it’s rare that [Sonnanstine or Howell] reports soreness in his arm the day after starting, neither takes particularly long to get warmed up, and both can be relied upon to come in and throw strikes even if they haven’t pitched in a few days…”You kind of target those guys,” Hickey said. “You don’t just take anybody and say ‘This guy’s capable of being a relief pitcher.’”

This suggests that Hickey, Madden and Friedman consider Sonnanstine to be a relief pitcher in the long run. If Niemann stayed in the rotation and Sonny was moved to the bullpen, the Rays would have to DFA a second relief pitcher. Anybody have a problem with Gary Glover being pushed out the door? Neither do we.

With or without a trade, here is what the Rays pitching staff could look like at the end of May…

Rotation:

  1. Kazmir
  2. Shields
  3. Garza
  4. Jackson
  5. Niemann

Bullpen:

  1. Percival
  2. Reyes
  3. Wheeler
  4. Miller
  5. Howell
  6. Sonnanstine
  7. Hammel (or relief pitcher acquired via trade for Hammel)

DFA:

  1. Dohmann
  2. Glover

If this is how the pitching staff shakes out, it would be our contention that for the first time in the 11 year history of the franchise, the Rays would have 12 major league pitchers on the staff…and our 12th Raysmas wish would come true.

Jan 06

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 12 Days Of Raysmas: Day 12 (Twelve Major League Pitchers)

Rotation Battle Royal, The Bullpen doesn't suck? Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and what they will do, and why. Unlike most team blogs, we do not very often tell you what the Tampa Bay Rays should do. However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans.

On the twelfth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, TWELVE major league pitchers on the 25-man roster…

Let’s take a look back at the 2007 Tampa Bay Rays and the twelve pitchers that made the opening day roster and their final VORP values…


PITCHER VORP
Scott Kazmir 45.8
Jae Seo -18.7
James Shields 44.0
Casey Fossum -20.9
Edwin Jackson -9.5
Al Reyes 5.1
Ruddy Lugo 2.6
Gary Glover 6.8
Shawn Camp -6.6
Juan Salas 4.9
JK Ryu -3.7
Brian Stokes -8.0


(not a typo…Seo opened the season as the Rays #2 starter…seriously)

VORP for a pitcher is the number of runs prevented (positive VORP) or given up (negative VORP) in comparison to a replacement-level player. For example, if Scott Kazmir had been injured before the season and the Rays replaced him in the rotation with a “freely available” pitcher (a slightly below average pitcher that is a free agent) the replacement pitcher would have allowed approximately 46 more runs over the course of a season.

As can be seen from numbers, six Devil Rays pitchers posted VORP values in 2007 below replacement-level. In other words if the Rays would have cut those six players prior to the season and just signed six random cheap free agent pitchers, the Rays would have allowed approximately 68 fewer runs.

The Rays began to address this problem during the 2007 season, as two of the biggest culprits, Fossum and Seo were dropped from the rotation and replaced by Andy Sonnanstine and Jason Hammel. The Rays then made a significant improvement to the bullpen with a trade that landed Dan Wheeler. The makeover continued this off-season with the acquisitions of Matt Garza and Troy Percival.

While the rotation and bullpen were much improved by the end of the 2007 season, there is still significant work to be done. Even with those additions there are still two spots in the rotation and at least two spots in the bullpen that will potentially be filled with a player that is a marginal major leaguer at best. There is still time to add more major league talent to the roster through a trade or free agency, but that will count for two pitchers, at most. That leaves at least two and as many as five pitchers that will begin the season on the Rays’ roster that will need to significantly improve their performance.

Last season, the Devil Rays opened the season with six pitchers with a negative VORP value. That is six pitchers that did not deserve to be on a major league roster in 2007. In essence, the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays opened the season with only six major league pitchers on their staff. If the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays are going to take a significant step forward, they will need twelve pitchers on the staff.

On the twelfth day of Raysmas, all Rays fans want is TWELVE major league pitchers, and…
ELEVEN walk-off wins [Day 11]
TEN meaningful games in September [Day 10]
NINE no-hit innings from Scott Kazmir [Day 9]
EIGHT ejections for Joe Maddon [Day 8]
SEVEN relatively healthy months of Rocco Baldelli [Day 7]
SIX months with at least 14 wins [Day 6]
FIVE players with at least 25 home runs [Day 5]
FOUR winning records against AL East foes [Day 4]
THREE AL All-Stars [Day 3]
TWO new pitchers in the rotation by the all-star break [Day 2]
ONE Evan Longoria in the opening day lineup [Day 1]

May 30

The Hangover: We Smell A Devil Rays Battle Royal For Two Spots In The Rotation

Elijah Dukes, Jane Heller, Jose Reyes, Rob Neyer, Rocco Baldelli, Rotation Battle Royal Cork Gaines No Comments »

Tigers 14, Devil Rays 2.

Starting pitching can carry a team — or weigh it down.

The Devil Rays are experiencing the latter, as three of the team’s five starting pitchers have been as inconsistent as their ERAs are high.

Those are the first two sentences from Bill Chastain’s write-up of last night’s game at devilrays.com. Let’s see how “inconsistent” they have been…

We have never liked the “quality start” stat in baseball (6 innings, allowing no more than 3 runs). Since when is 6 innings and 3 runs a “quality start”? In our eyes a quality start is 7 innings. A starting pitcher should at least be able to get the ball to the team’s set-up man. But for the sake of argument let’s see how many quality starts Edwin Jackson, Jae Seo and Casey Fossum have on the season.


Pitcher GS QS
Jae Seo 10 2
Casey Fossum 9 3
Edwin Jackson 9 2
Of the 7 “quality starts” that these pitchers have racked up, 4 of them have been of the 6-inning variety. Both of Jackson’s “quality starts” just barely qualified at 6 innings with 3 runs. On the season, these 3 pitchers have worked more than 6 innings a total of 5 times in 28 starts. For comparison (this really isn’t fair, but too bad) James Shields has worked into the 7th inning in every one of his 10 starts and has 7 quality starts all by himself.

So, we are a little confused. What exactly is “inconsistent” in their performance this season? Rather, these three pitchers have been amazingly consistent. Consistently bad. How many times has a game ended this season and Rays fans thought that one of these guys actually pitched well? Even a below-average pitcher should have a few of those by now. We can think of 1 for Seo and maybe 2 for Fossum. That is 3 solid outings in 28 starts. Josh Paul could do that. Hell, Joe Maddon could do that.

Never fear, change is on the horizon. Seo is now out of the rotation. And don’t buy into the statement that Joe Maddon made this week concerning Seo’s status.

He may go back and do his next start, but we’re not sure yet.

That is just Papa Joe not wanting to make an official statement yet. Seo is out. Fossum is next.

So who will the Rays bring up to replace Seo and Fossum? We could actually make a case for all 5 of the Durham starting pitchers.

  1. Andy Sonnanstine. Last week we stated that Sonny was not likely to get the first call because he is not on the 40-man roster, but we have loosened on that position. It would not surprise us now if Seo is released. It might depend on whether the Rays think they can actually trade Seo and receive anything of value. Sonnanstine has been the most consistent of the 5, with only one bad outing all year. He has been a little more hittable his last two outings.
  2. Jeff Niemann. Niemann has been consistently good this year, but he is yet to be great. He has not had that one start or stretch of starts that make you say “wow”. He consistently goes 5-6 innings and gives up 2-3 runs. He does have 57 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. This is the guy the Rays want in the rotation, but he may need another 5-10 starts at AAA.
  3. Jason Hammel. Hammel has been named pitcher-of-the-week twice this season, but both of those came early in the season. He has been a bit more average for the last month until his last start when he threw a 5-hit shutout with no walks. Hammel also has major league experience and almost a complete year of AAA under his belt. That could give him the edge over the others.
  4. Mitch Talbot. Want the hot-hand? Talbot is your guy. After struggling all season, he may have turned it around with only 6 hits and 1 run in his last 14 innings covering 2 starts. Still, the Rays will want to see a bit more consistency before Talbot gets a call.
  5. JP Howell. Howell is the forgotten guy. Remember he pitched great in the spring and battled Jackson to the last week for the 5th spot. He also has the most major league experience in the group. He has been great his last 3 outings with 2 runs and 7 hits with 18 strike outs in 18 innings.

If the Rays are willing to make a roster move and drop somebody from the 40-man, Sonnanstine is the guy. He has earned it. If they decide to wait on a roster move hoping to make a trade involving Seo (or Cantu or Gomes) then the first call will probably be Hammel or Howell.

Anything would be an improvement of what the Rays throw out there 60% of the time.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
  • We have a lot of loyal readers around these parts, but Rob Neyer of ESPN.com is apparently not one of them.

In addition to [Edwin] Jackson‘s 7.12, the rotation also features Casey Fossum’s 7.15 and Jae Seo’s 8.10. And somehow nobody’s talking seriously about junking either of them.

Apparently Rob missed THIS post, or THIS one, and he definitely missed THIS one. In our defense. That last post? Jae Seo killed our cat the night before*

* might not be true.

  • The Devil Rays have had discussions with the Mets concerning how they handled Jose Reyes and the recurring hamstring problems that plagued him early in his career. The Rays hope the same techniques can be used with Rocco Baldelli in an effort to reduce the problems he has encountered with his hamstrings. Mets personnel were able to alter the way that Reyes ran and he no longer has a recurring hamstring issues. Rocco is hoping to begin a rehab assignment, possibly in extended spring training with the next 10-14 days.
  • Jane Heller of the New York Times is divorcing the New York Yankees and is having an affair with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Isn’t that kinda like divorcing Bill Gates to date the pool boy? I mean the pool boy may be more fun to watch, but you aren’t going nice places with him anytime soon.
  • A judge has issued a 1-year restraining order against Elijah Dukes. Dukes must also undergo a psychological evaluation before he is allowed to see his children.
Mar 19

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Or J. P. Howell For The 5th Spot

Dioner Navarro, Edwin Jackson, JP Howell, Joe Maddon, Josh Paul, Rotation Battle Royal, Scott Kazmir, Shawn Riggans Cork Gaines No Comments »

  • The Rays rallied from down 3-0 pull out just their third win of the Spring 5-4, in one of two split-squad games.
  • In the other game, the two pitchers that appear to have a leg up for the final spot in the rotation, each tossed three innings in the 6-0 loss. Edwin Jackson, who might have had a slight edge going into the game, gave up only two hits and one run while striking out four in three innings. However, for the first time this Spring, his command betrayed him, and he walked five. He only had one walk in seven innings prior to Sunday’s contest. J. P. Howell also allowed a single run in three innings, with three hits, but he did not walk a batter. It appears that the race for the final spot will go down to the wire.
  • Joe Maddon would like to see each of the pitchers one more time before narrowing the competitors for the final spot to two.
  • Scott Kazmir gave up three runs, but had his best outing of the Spring, striking out seven in 5.1 innings. In the same piece comes the best indication yet that Joe Maddon has already made up his mind concerning Al Reyes. Reyes will pitch in a minor league game on Monday. This is an indication that Reyes will be on the opening day roster as Maddon would only send a pitcher to work in minor league camp so that he can get a better look at pitchers still fighting for roster spots.
  • Dioner Navarro is still not ready to return to action with his sore hamstring. This is the first real indication that Shawn Riggans could be on the opening day roster. If Navarro, who has a history of hamstring problems, has to start the season on on the DL, Riggans would be on the roster and quite possibly could be the opening day starter, as Maddon would likely prefer that Josh Paul remain in his backup role, and allow the young prospect a chance to get some more Major League experience.
  • The Hardball Times mathematical projections of the AL East standings indicate this could be a long season for the Rays with a final record of 68-94. One problem is that they predict each of the other teams to finish at .500 or better.