We are less than a week away from Opening Day. A day romanticized by fans, writers, announcers, analysts, and everyone else associated with The Grand Old Game. It’s also the day of dreams, hopes, and projections. It’s the day we look to the Rays front office and hope they made the right moves, beseech Lady Luck helps us, and pray the Injury Bug stays as far away as possible from our defense of the AL East crown.

But do you know everything there is to know about the team about to take the field this Friday night? If not, if you are still itching to read more about Rays before you dive into broadcasts and boxscores, there are two publications out there worth looking into.

RaysProspect 2011 Guide

From RaysProspects.com comes the RaysProspects 2011 Prospects Guide. Written and edited by Kevin Gengler, this free downloadable .pdf includes everything you would want to know about the best players of the Rays minor league system. It gives bios of each of the top 15 pitchers and hitters in the organization, from highly accomplished prospects like Desmond Jennings to new draftees like Josh Sale. It also has prospect previews of nearly every Rays minor leaguer and what to expect from each team, from the Bowling Green Hot Rods to the Durham Bulls.

As if that wasn’t enough, what I found most interesting was Gengler’s articles on pitching phenom Matt Moore, the prospects with the most tools, and his “Prospect Battle Royale”, a comparison of the Rays Top 10 Prospects Lists from 2006 to 2010. Which class was most successful, which had the most flops, and which has the most promise?

If you are a fan of the minor leagues or just want to take a peek at who might be making their way to the Trop in the near future, I definitely recommend downloading the RaysProspects 2011 Prospect Guide.

The Process Report 2011

Since 2008, R.J. Anderson has taken part in writing annual previews on the Rays. In 2008, he primarily authored the first DRaysBay preview. That preview, no longer available for download, featured a few articles by Anderson and others and player previews by the DRaysBay staff.

In 2009 and 2010, Read the rest of this entry »

Rays Prospects has released their 2011 Prospect Guide. If you have any interest in keeping up with the Rays minor league system, you will want to download a copy. [Rays Prospects]

For those of you that are not familiar, let us introduce you to the Cork-Board…

• The Cork-Board, which you can find in the sidebar, is a full organizational depth chart for the Tampa Bay Rays, including rosters for the Rays and their minor league affiliates all the way down to the short-season and rookie league teams.
• Each player includes a link to their current stats.
• Starting lineups are based on the most common lineup used versus right-handed pitchers in recent games.
• Minor leaguers that were drafted by the Rays now include the year and round in which they were drafted. The draft info is also now included in the minor league segment of “The Hangover” each morning.

In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

Presenting the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects Meta-Analysis.

Baseball Prospectus has released their list of Top 100 prospects. We are still waiting for their list of Top 11 prospects for the Rays, but five of those players are in the top 100, so we can get a head start.

Notes on how the rankings were constructed are found at the bottom of this post. Notes on the final rankings can be found after the table…

A few notes on the final rankings… Read the rest of this entry »

In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

Presenting the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects Meta-Analysis.

Baseball Prospectus has released their list of Top 100 prospects. We are still waiting for their list of Top 11 prospects for the Rays, but five of those players are in the top 100, so we can get a head start.

Notes on how the rankings were constructed are found at the bottom of this post. Notes on the final rankings can be found after the table…

A few notes on the final rankings…

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago we learned that Keith Law of ESPN ranked the Rays as the second best minor league system despite the graduation of Evan Longoria and the loss of Jake McGee for a year. Now we know why. Six of Keith Law’s top 100 prospects are players in the Rays organization, including #2 David Price and two others in the top 25 (Tim Beckham #11, Desmond Jennings #25). Wade Davis (33), Jeremy Hellickson (47) and Reid Brignac (78) round out the Rays on the list.

2. David Price: Price, like Wieters, is ready to play in the majors right now, although he has a little more development ahead of him that may have to come at the big league level… He’ll need to continue to develop [his changeup] and improve his fastball command to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter, and his workload may be somewhat limited since he threw only140 innings in total in 2008…Given more development time, whether in Durham or in St. Petersburg, he will become a workhorse at the top of the Rays’ rotation who racks up strikeouts and shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate.

11. Tim Beckham: Beckham has average or better tools across the board, with the potential to be plus in every tool if his power develops fully. He was better on defense than at the plate last summer; he’s athletic and fast with an above-average arm, but his footwork needs improvement. At the plate, he has some mechanical issues to work through as he transitions to the wood bat.

25. Desmond Jennings: The lost year of development hurts [due to injury], but Jennings remains a top prospect due to his tool set and tremendous feel for the game. Jennings is a great athlete, a plus-plus runner who’s well-built and has a compact stroke geared toward contact. He is strong enough and should be big enough to hit 20-25 homers a year (if not more), but his power hasn’t shown up in games yet, and it’s not likely to do so until he’s 100 percent physically. He also has outstanding baseball instincts in the field, on the bases, and even at the plate, where he shows good pitch recognition.

33. Wade Davis: Like a lot of young power guys, his command and control lag behind his stuff, and he wasn’t challenged enough at lower levels to have to improve them. A good half-year or more in Triple-A should help, and the Rays are fortunate enough to have the depth to allow Davis to develop on his own schedule.

47. Jeremy Hellickson: Hellickson needed to improve one of his offspeed pitches to raise his ceiling beyond that of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and he did, as his changeup was significantly better this year…A pitcher needs to do two of three things to be successful in the majors: miss bats, avoid walks and keep the ball in the park. Hellickson looks like he’ll be able to do the first two, so even if he ends up a 30-plus homer per year pitcher, he’ll be valuable.

78. Reid Brignac: That’s two disappointing years in a row for Brignac, this one more disappointing than the last, and 2009 is a make-or-break year for him as a prospect…Another bad year will probably doom Brignac to utility-infielder status.

The Rays and the Rangers are the only organizations with five players in the top 50. San Francisco (4) is the only other organization with more than three in the top 50.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Dioner Navarro visited a local elementary school to help start a program funded by the Rays Baseball Foundation to use baseball statistics as a means for making math more fun. [Bradenton Herald]
• While at the elementary school, Dioner Navarro spoke about his impending arbitration case saying there would be “no hard feelings.” [Tampa Bay's 10]
• The Rays Party of America argues that the Rays have the best catcher in the AL East. [Rays Party of America]
• Doug Miller looks at the 2007 Rockies and the 2008 Rays and sees some stark differences. [MLB]

Earlier this week we saw that the Rays fell out of the top spot in Baseball America’s ranking of the minor league systems. Like BA, Keith Law of ESPN has the Texas Rangers as the top far system. Unlike BA, Law has the Rays in the top 3. In fact, the Rays have the second best system according to Law.

2. Tampa Bay Rays: They just keep churning out the prospects, although they’ll have a new challenge in 2009: no draft picks in the top 10 — or even 20. Success with high school pitchers taken after the first round has been a big part of their system’s depth, including another wave of kids who spent 2008 in short-season ball. However, their recent efforts in Latin America have yet to yield any significant prospects.

Obviously this includes David Price, who will be #1 or #2 overall in most prospect rankings, but it says a lot about the depth of the Rays’ organization, that the Rays are still #2 after the promotion of Evan Longoria and the injury to Jake McGee.

When Law refers to “another wave of kids who spent 2008 in short-season ball,” he is referring to pitchers like Matt Moore, Nick Barnese and Albert Suarez, three pitchers whose names you will hear with more regularity in the next couple of years.

Rangers’ farm system second to none [ESPN]
Texas Rangers’ farm system ranked No. 1 [Dallas Morning News]

Last January we performed a meta-analysis of the Rays’ top prospects, in which we built a composite ranking of the top 14 players in the system based on eight different rankings and our own “Trade Value Index“. Let’s take a look back at the list and see how each of those players performed in 2008 and gauge whether or not they are living up to the hype.

1. Evan Longoria (avg. rank: 1.1) It seems like years ago, but Dirtbag was demoted back to triple-A after spring training. But after 10 games, he was back and the Rays never looked back. Despite missing time late in the season with a broken bone in his wrist, Longoria hit .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs and a 125 OPS+. Add to that 7-7 on stolen base attempts and gold glove-caliber defense and Longoria should be a run-away AL Rookie of the Year…AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

2. David Price (avg. rank: 2.2) Not a bad year for King David who made his professional debut at single-A in late May. Five months later Price recorded the final 4 outs of game 7 of the ALCS to beat the Boston Red Sox and advance the Rays to the World Series. In 29 combined appearances (20 starts) between the minors, the majors and the postseason, Price was 13-1 with a 2.23 ERA. He posted 129 strikeouts in 129.1 innings, to go along with an impressive 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio…WILL BE TOP PROSPECT IN BASEBALL IN ’09

3. Jake McGee (avg. rank: 3.3) As impressive as Price was, McGee was equally disappointing. In June, McGee was lost for the season with a torn ligament in his elbow. Even before the injury, it was clear that McGee was not his usual dominating self. Prior to this season, McGee averaged 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. This season, that number was down to 7.5 at double-A. If he can come back successfully from surgery, Joe Maddon recently indicated that he could see McGee as a power lefty in the bullpen…WILL BE OFF THIS LIST IN ’09

4. Wade Davis (avg. rank: 3.8) Davis is just 1 of 8 starting pitchers in the organization that could start in the majors in ’09. Like McGee, Davis struggled early in the season at double-A. Prior to this season, Davis struck out 9.4 batters per 9 innings and posted a 3.0 strikeout to walk ratio. In 19 double-A starts, Davis posted a respectable 3.85 ERA, but his strikeouts per 9 innings was down to 6.8 and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was down to 1.9. After the double-A all star game, Davis was promoted to triple-A and his numbers rebounded back to his norm. In 9 starts with Durham, Davis struck out 55 in 53 innings (9.3 per 9 innings) and his ratio was back to 2.3. Davis is ready for the majors, but he will have to wait…TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

5. Reid Brignac (avg. rank: 5.3) Two things happened on the way to the majors for Brignac. His glove proved major league caliber, and his bat did not. With the glove, Brignac committed only 12 errors after averaging 28 per season that previous 3 years. He was named the top defensive shortstop of the IL by Baseball America. With the bat, Brignac posted a .250/.299/.412 line. He is still getting an extra-base hit about once every 10 at bats, which is in line with previous seasons, but the 25 walks have to be viewed as a disappointment. He also missed the final two months with a broken bone in his wrist. He did make his major league debut this season, going 0-10 with 5 strikeouts and a walk…PROSPECT STATUS IS SLIPPING

6. Desmond Jennings (avg. rank: 6.9) Another year, another season cut short by injury. This time it was only 24 games before Jennings went down with a shoulder injury. In 2009 Jennings will be 22 years old, have zero experience above single-A and only 685 at bats above high school. The talent is there (.866 OPS in ’07 at Columbus), but he needs to show that he can stay healthy for an entire season before we even consider him major league caliber...DISAPPOINTMENT SO FAR

7. Jeff Niemann (avg. rank: 6.9) Niemann made his major league debut for the Rays with one good start and one not-so-good start back in April. In triple-A, Niemann made 24 starts going 9-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a respectable 2.6 strike out to walk ratio. He did seem to get stronger as the season went along. Of course, the good news is that 2008 marked his second consecutive (relatively) healthy season. Niemann will be out of minor league options in 2009 so he will either be in the Rays’ bullpen or in the Royals’ (or another team’s) rotation…COULD BE A SOLID #4/5 STARTER WITH A LONG CAREER

8. Jeremy Hellickson (avg. rank: 8.2) We have always said that we are hesitant to get excited about a prospect until he does something above single-A. After a solid 2008, Hellickson is very much on everybody’s radar and he could give the Rays 3 starting pitchers in the top 20 prospects in baseball. Between single-A and double-A, Hellboy made 27 starts, going 11-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a ridiculous 8.1 strikeout to walk ratio. We also saw how much Hellickson is now valued in baseball as many teams at the trade deadline insisted on his inclusion in any deal with the Rays making it very clear that he would not be dealt. He should be #3 on the Rays’ list next season…TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

9. Eddie Morlan (avg. rank: 9.4) The best relief pitcher prospect in the system, Morlan posted a solid 3.0 strike out to walk ratio to go with 45 Ks in 47 innings. Morlan was selected to participate in the Futures Game during the All-Star break…COULD MOVE UP A SPOT OR TWO IN 2009

10. Ryan Royster (avg. rank: 11.1) Royster was a big disappointment in 2008. One year after hitting .329-30-98 with a .981 OPS at Columbus, Royster regressed to .265-9-58 with a .691 OPS at Vero Beach. Royster will need to prove that 2007 was not a fluke or he will soon become an afterthought…NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

11. Chris Mason (avg. rank: 11.1) As disappointing as Royster was with the bat, Mason was equally disappointing on the mound. After winning 15 games with a 2.57 ERA in 2007 at Montgomery, Mason’s ERA skyrocketed to 6.21. He was eventually demoted to the bullpen. Without a dominating fastball, Mason relies on control and that escaped him this season. After averaging 2.6 walks per 9 innings prior to this season, Mason walked 3.4 per 9 inning this season and the pitches in the strikezone were very hittable. Like Royster, Mason needs to prove that 2008 was the exception and not the rule…NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

12. John Jaso (avg. rank: 11.4) Jaso’s defense has improved considerably, but there is still improvement needed before he is considered a legitimate major league catching prospect. On the other hand, there is little doubt about his bat. For the fifth straight season, Jaso posted an OPS of greater than .800 and boasts a career minor league OBP of .381 (.386 in 2008). 2009 will be a big season for Jaso. If he can show continued progress behind the plate, he could become one of the top catching prospects in baseball…WILL BE IN RAYS TOP 10 IN 2009

13. Fernando Perez (avg. rank: 12.6) He still strikes out way too much (156 in 129 triple-A games) but his athleticism and speed cannot be ignored. He clearly left an impression on Joe Maddon during a September call-up. With a possible opening in right field for 2009, Perez will certainly receive consideration for that position. But we suspect that Perez is being groomed to replace Carl Crawford in left field. If Crawford is traded this off-season, the Rays would save nearly $8 million on the payroll, and only take a small step backwards in talent…COULD BE EVERYDAY MAJOR LEAGUER IN 2009

14. James Houser (avg. rank: 14.1) It is not easy to go 3-3 in 20 starts (double-A) but Houser’s 2.86 ERA indicate the lack of wins was not his fault. The 76 to 40 strikeout to walk ratio needs improvement (94.1 innings) but the 69 hits allowed was very impressive. A big lefty (6’5″), Houser still needs to add meat to his bones (185 lbs). Once he does, he could step up as one of the top prospects in the system. In the meantime, Houser’s future in the big leagues could be as a relief pitcher…SLOWLY CLIMBING THE BOARD

A Meta-Analysis Of Top Tampa Bay Rays Prospects [Rays Index]

Tampa Bay Devil Dogs (22 days until opening day)

DRG here again to get you through the weekend…

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Yankees 1.except for Shawn Riggans at catcher, this is the lineup we could see on March 31 including the batting order with Cliff Floyd in the 5-hole and Jonny Gomes in right batting 6th, followed by Evan Longoria. Willy Aybar came on late and played first. Joel Guzman replaced Longoria at third late in the game. Carl Crawford stole two bases. Matt Garza had a strong outing overshadowed by the professional debut of David Price in the 7th inning. Price hit the first batter he faced and then settled down to strike out the next three. Garza struck out 4 in 3 scoreless innings. He allowed 1 hit and walked 2. Brian Anderson also made his first appearance of the spring, giving up a leadoff single, but then retired the next three on fly balls. Scott Dohmann pitched a perfect 8th and 9th, striking out 2.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Many were impressed with David Price’s debut including his own pitching coach. Price was clocked between 95-97 on the Rays’ guns, striking out three straight after hitting his first professional batter. [The Heater]

“There were a couple of guys in there that had considerable major league experience that didn’t really have much of a chance,” Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey said. “Pretty impressive, period, but very impressive for the first time.”

• David Price threw 17 pitches, 11 for strikes. He admitted to being star-struck prior to the game and felt he overthrew during the game but got “lucky” enough to keep them in the strike zone. [Bradenton Herald]

“Watching this guy throw 98 miles-an-hour on the black inside, that’s cool,” Pena said. “That’s exactly what we were expecting.”

• Rocco Baldelli came out yesterday to clear the air on the rumors surrounding his medical condition. He was emphatic in denying that he has Multiple Sclerosis, a rare blood disorder or that he ever took steroids. He stated that he has taken every test and nothing has been able to pinpoint the problem. [Providence Journal]

“I’ve felt a lot of different sensations…Nothing came back specifically positive.” He won’t detail the specifics of the battery of tests he keeps referring to, the ones that have taken place here in Tampa, and he wouldn’t give specific locations. But he said he’s been examined by doctors around the country…”I feel like I’ve been tested for everything on Earth. The testing I went through last year was pretty extensive …I have had some problems with my muscles recovering. They don’t recover on a day-to-day basis like I would like them to. It’s tough when you wake up one day and they don’t feel as good as they did the day before. It’s not a fun feeling. We’re still looking to get that very specific diagnosis so I can sleep better at night.”

• Joe Maddon reiterated on Saturday that the team needs to know by the end of the week if they can expect to get 9 innings from Rocco Baldelli or start looking for other options…Let’s say nobody seems very optimistic about that. [St. Pete Times]

“Over the course of the next week, something’s probably got to give in a positive direction to know that he’s going to be able to get out there with any kind of regularity,” Maddon said. “You’re looking to get nine innings, whether it’s as a DH or an outfielder. So I’d say the next week is going to be very vital, or important, to determine that.”

• Marc Lancaster catches up with Matt Spring who is in his first major league camp. [Tampa Tribune]
• Some worry that the Rays proposed stadium could end the city’s hopes of becoming a mecca for Arts enthusiasts. [St. Pete Times]
• Minor League Ball is running a community projection for BJ Upton. The final tally was .286/.370/.502 with 25 home runs, 93 RBI and 30 steals. [Minor League Ball]
• Similar to the Prof’s Meta-Analysis of Top Prospects in the sidebar, MLB Scoop averaged all of the lists of Top Prospects to come up with an aggregate list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The Rays have four in the top 20, and five overall. [MLB Scoop]

Tampa Bay Rays (30.5 days until Opening Day)

Went out to check the mail today and we were surprised with quite a little present.

That my friends is the Tampa Bay Rays’ very own BJ Upton along with his brother Justin Upton of the D-Backs. And no, this is not a fake magazine mock-up from one of those booths at the Trop. A major sports magazine actually put a Ray on the cover. We don’t recall this ever happening before. Can anybody think of an example?

And how about that uni on BJ? We were tentative supporters of the new uni’s since the beginning, but now we are really getting excited. We understand the green was unique and set the Rays apart…but boy, BJ sure looks more like a baseball player now. We likey.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• The first spring game is not quite over. Edwin Jackson looked strong allowing only one hit in two innings. He went 1-2-3 in the first and after giving up a leadoff single in the second, he got the last two outs on strikeouts to get out of the inning. Rays had bases loaded in the first one out, but Willy Aybar struck out in his first at bat for the Rays. Jonny Gomes ended the inning without a run. Evan Longoria drove in a run with an rbi-double in his second at bat in the Rays 3-run 4th inning. Ben Zobrist has two hits including a double. Jason Hammel gave up two runs in two innings and Jake McGee got knocked around pretty good in his first spring appearance allowing four runs on three hits and three walks in one inning. Shawn Riggans was 0-3 on base stealers, while John Jaso gunned down his only chance. Last spring base stealers were 10-11 against Riggans. [MLB]
  
• Rays Anatomy takes an in depth look at the top prospect lists from several major outlets. [Rays Anatomy]
• The Rays continue to try and sell their product the old fashioned way…door-to-door. Dick Crippen a senior advisor for the Rays promoted the Rays recently at a rotary club meeting in New Port Richey. [The Suncoast News]