FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The Rays just took two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway Park. In the grand scheme of things it is still just three games of 162, but…Does winning this series mean more than that?

This series was big on several levels. First, it sent an immediate message to the Red Sox and the Yankees that any doubts they might have had about the Rays were completely unfounded. It also shows that there won’t be an AL pennant hangover this season as the Rays have come out of the gate ready to play. But most importantly it will shut up all the naysayers that said the Rays would be just like the 2007 Rockies….BET YOUR ARSE IT DOES

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
David Price was demoted and Jason Hammel was traded to the Rockies. Some say Jeff Niemann won the fifth spot in the rotation. However, it could be argued that it was handed to him by default. With most assuming that Price’s promotion is a matter of “when”…How long will Jeff Niemann be in the rotation?

In theory, Price could go out and throw three straight shutouts in triple-A and the Rays may not have a choice but to promote him right away. But more realistically, especially after his last minor league spring start in which he gave up four home runs, Price is going to need more than three starts. Right now, we want to believe that unless Niemann implodes or Price forces the issue, Niemann will get at least the first half. That would be about 18-19 starts….AT LEAST 3 MONTHS

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
A commenter recently brought up the move of quality assurance coach Tim Bogar from the Rays to the Red Sox. This move barely made the news during the off-season…Is this more important than it sounds?

Bogar’s duties last year were to scout the Rays. In essence he was looking for flaws that other teams may try to exploit so that the Rays could correct those problems before they become issues. This move was considered revolutionary at the time, but may bite them in the arse in the end. This past winter, the Red Sox hired Bogar to be their first base coach, and going with him was all his knowledge of the Rays flaws. This is something that is quite common in the NFL, where assistant coaches are hired from other teams and players will be signed for one week just for their knowledge of that week’s opponent. Come to think of it, maybe this is why the Rays never announced a replacement for Bogar [Ed. note: see comments]….COULD BE HUGE ADVANTAGE FOR RED SOX

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FIRST INNING (A look back)…
Matt Joyce has been named to the opening day roster as a replacement for BJ Upton…Can Joyce impress enough to stay with the Rays, or is he automatically on his way to Durham when Upton returns from the DL?

The biggest question with Joyce is whether or not he is ready to handle left-handed pitching. If he is not, the Rays want him in the minor leagues to work on that aspect of his game. So we will know the Rays intentions the first time the Rays face a left-handed starter. If Joyce is in the lineup, the Rays at least want to see if he can handle the everyday duties. But if Joyce is on the bench and Ben Zobrist is in center field, then we know the Rays do not yet have the confidence in Joyce’s ability to hit lefties and he will be on the first flight to Durham the day Upton makes his 2009 debut…..WE’LL FIND OUT SOON

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
The Rays appear to have three arms for two spots with Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel and Lance Cormier…Are the Rays in a bad negotiating position with other teams knowing they have to trade one of those guys or lose one for nothing?

Yes and no. On the one hand, the Rays could just dump Cormier and keep Niemann and Hammel. But Cormier has been great this spring and the Rays are not going to want to lose Cormier and his salary for nothing in return. And other teams know that. On the other hand, there might only be two starting pitchers on the market right now and the Rays have both. And with 6-7 teams looking for an extra arm, that puts the Rays in a good position. So at this point, it depends on how well Andrew Friedman plays his cards, and dude knows how to play cards…..THE SITUATION IS DELICATE

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Spring training is now over…What was the most pleasant surprise of the spring?

This is a toss-up between Jason Bartlett and Carlos Hernandez. Bartlett got on base, stole bases, played great D. With questions being raised as to what the Rays can expect from Reid Brignac down the road, it would be nice to see Bartlett step his game up to a new level and help solidify the bottom of the order. As for Hernandez, we knew he looked good late last season, but that was at single-A. We figured he might not be ready to even think about jumping back to the big leagues until after the all-star break. But we wonder if he is ready to help out in the bullpen right now…..BARTLETT AND HERNANDEZ

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FIRST INNING (A look back)…
Last week the Rays traded Edwin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers for Matt Joyce…What does this trade mean to the 2009 roster?

Barring any further trades, it gives us a sense of who will be competing for which spots in spring training. Moving Jackson opens up one spot in the rotation. Ultimately that spot will go to David Price, but there is a good chance the Rays will let Price simmer in Durham for a while. That leaves Jeff Niemann, Mitch Talbot and Jason Hammel competing for the final spot. Talbot has minor league options and Hammel may have already exhausted his chances. That leaves Niemann unless one of the other two step up. To the bullpen goes the leftovers. There are one or two spots available in the bullpen and one or two of the aforementioned three, could step into those spots. As for the lineup, Joyce will ultimately be the most-days right fielder, but that may not happen in April. If he is not ready to be fulltime player, the Rays may prefer to have Joyce playing everyday in Durham over platooning against righties in the majors. A platoon situation at this point in his career will stall his development. That would mean Gabe Gross and either Willy Aybar or Ben Zobrist will platoon to start the season…A LOT MORE CLARITY, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
With the Rays trading away a starting pitcher and bringing in a young right fielder…Which players already in the organization will be directly impacted by the move?

We already saw the Rays non-tender Jonny Gomes, but that might have happened anyway. Of the position players, Gross stands to be impacted the most as his skill-set is most similar to Matt Joyce. Once Joyce is deemed ready, Gross will be out of a job. For the pitchers, this move gives Jeff Niemann one last opportunity to be a big league starting pitcher for the Rays. The door will not be open long, so he needs to seize the opportunity…GABE GROSS AND JEFF NIEMANN

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
The Rays left the winter meetings without offering a contract to any free agents, however reports suggest that the Rays and Cubs are the leading suitors for Milton Bradley…Do the Rays actually have a shot at signing Bradley?

When the off-season started, Milton Bradley was likely looking to make $12-15 million per season for 3-4 years. With Raul Ibanez signing with the Phillies for 3yrs/$30 million (and a first rd. pick), Bradley can only hope his deal is in the same neighborhood. While the Rays may be a more attractive option for Bradley (patient manager, DH), the Cubs are more likely to offer something similar to Ibanez’ deal. Already less than he was likely expecting, we have to wonder how much less he would be willing to accept for the chance to play with the Rays. Our guess is not much…GUT SAYS BRADLEY WILL SIGN WITH CUBS

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
In the Rule 5 draft the Rays picked up Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox organization…Does this addition ease the loss of Eddie Morlan in the same draft?

On the surface it does. But we have to wait and see how either pitcher does with their new teams. As the roster stands now, Rodriguez has a good shot at landing a bullpen spot. But those chances will drop quickly if the Rays trade for a relief pitcher as expected or sign a left-handed specialist…FOR THE TIME BEING

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
With Edwin Jackson gone, the Rays may be done dealing players off the major league roster…If a player is moved, who is the most likely member of the 25-man roster to be traded?

Of the pitchers, it is no secret the Rays would like to move Chad Bradford’s $3.5 million salary, but will they find any takers? If the Mets, with their payroll and need for a complete bullpen overhaul say ‘No’, we doubt the Rays will find a partner. As for the position players, this may depend on who the Rays sign to DH. If it is a right-handed bat (Pat Burrell) or switch-hitter (Milton Bradley), the Rays could look to move either Ben Zobrist or Willy Aybar. Both players are great bench players with good bats and the positional-flexibility that Joe Maddon covets. But do other teams see one or both as a potential starter? If so, the price might be too good to turn down…CHAD BRADFORD, BEN ZOBRIST, WILLY AYBAR

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
The Yankees recently signed the two biggest free agent starting pitchers…What do these signings mean to the Rays and their fans?

Obviously it puts the Yankees right back in the mix for the AL East and a playoff spot. And while the signings are enormous from a financial standpoint, there is a lot of risk involved for the Yankees (especially with AJ Burnett) and they still do not have much depth in the rotation. That coupled with a lineup filled with holes and the Yankees are not a lock for the playoffs. For the fans, it adds a new level of emotion to rooting for the Rays. In years past, contracts like these were just shrugged off as “the Yankees being the Yankees.” But that was when even Rays fans didn’t think the team could compete. Now, we have to sit back and watch the Yankees and Red Sox plug their holes just by writing a check, a VERY big check. And for the first time, we truly understand where we stand in the baseball universe…THE YANKEES ARE CONTENDERS AND THE RAYS WILL NEVER BE SPENDERS

SEVENTH INNING (Oddsmakers)…
Chances Jeff Nieman is named the fifth starter?

We have a feeling David Price will be in Durham for at least a few weeks. Of the remaining candidates, Mitch Talbot has options and Jason Hammel? Well, been there, tried that. Niemann makes the most sense, but there are several other options…34%

Chances Matt Joyce will be on the opening day roster?

We just can’t see the Rays platooning Joyce at this stage of his career for risk of stunting his growth against lefties. And we can’t see the Rays wanting to send out a lineup against lefties with two corner outfielders that blow chunks against lefties. With other options, the Rays won’t rush Joyce…14%

Chances Derek Rodriguez will be on the opening day roster?

As it stands right now, he has a good shot with two open slots. But the Rays rarely keep things status quo. We fully expect at least one more relief pitcher to be added to the mix and Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann need homes in 2009…10%

Chances Milton Bradley will sign with the Rays?

Bradley is already going to have to sign for less than hoped. We just can’t see him dropping his price any further than he has to. Unless he is willing to go with a one-year deal, and reenter the market next year, only the Cubs will pony up enough dollars…21%

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
Akinori Iwamura is on Japan’s roster for the World Baseball Classic…Which other players from the Rays’ roster are likely to miss a large portion of spring training while playing in the WBC?

Ultimately we think the Rays and Grant Balfour will reach an agreement that will keep him out of the WBC. Joe Maddon thinks Carl Crawford and a starting pitcher will be selected for Team USA. James Shields makes sense. If the Indians block Victor Martinez because of his health status, Dioner Navarro is probably a lock for the Venezuelan team. Carlos Pena might be safe from selection as long as Albert Pujols and David Ortiz are still on the Dominican team…CARL CRAWFORD, JAMES SHIELDS, DIONER NAVARRO

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Jonny Gomes was non-tendered by the Rays…good move?

It was time for Jonny Terrific to move and hopefully find a home where he will get a chance at more consistent playing time…YES

Richard Justice says the Yankees are still just the third best team in the AL East…Is this possible?

If they are still behind the Rays, it is not by much. But, the Yankees still have several question marks in the lineup and some aging players. They are also one injury away from once again having a big hole in the rotation. We are not sure yet how we would rank the teams, but the Yankees are in the mix…YANKEES WILL BE MUCH BETTER IN 2009

The Red Sox may be backing off of Rocco Baldelli…Is there a chance he will resign with the Rays?

All of the other teams we hear to be interested are NL teams. Those teams have the extra bench spot which allows them the flexibility to add a player like Baldelli. But will Rocco want to be in the NL without the DH? Not likely. The Rays are probably his first choice now, but the Rays are waiting to see if he will fit into the mix…CHANCES ARE BETTER, BUT OTHER QUESTIONS NEED TO BE ANSWERED FIRST

‘Tis the season…Favorite Christmas movie?

“A Christmas Story” is great, but it still pales in comparison to “Christmas Vacation”…Oh, Eddie… If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn’t be more surprised than I am now.

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The Rays appear to be one of the leading candidates to land free agent Milton Bradley…Knowing how the Rays handled fellow trouble-makers Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, is it surprising the Rays are interested in Bradley?

There is a stark difference between these three players. Dukes has been arrested several times and suspended numerous times. And several of the suspensions were related to confrontations with teammates and coaches. Young was once suspended 50 games for throwing a bat at an umpire and had several run-ins with Joe Maddon. While Bradley is a hot-head, you never hear teammates and coaches complaining about Bradley (except maybe Jeff Kent, but he complained about everybody). That is because, as Maddon pointed out yesterday, Bradley always plays hard and never takes an at bat off. And of course, neither Dukes nor Young has ever even dreamed of posting an OPS+ of 163…YOUNG AND DUKES ARE NOT IN THE SAME LEAGUE

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
Speaking of Delmon Young, there are rumors that the Rays are talking to the Twins about bringing Young back to the Rays…Is this even possible?

When we heard the first rumor, we assumed that Andrew Friedman was just exploring all possibilities. But when we heard the second rumor, we now are forced to believe that this is a real possibility. The Twins have already named their starting outfield for ’09 and that does not include Young, so there is a need to make a trade. The Rays just happen to need a right fielder. And despite his lack of domination so far in his career, Young will only be 23 in 2009 and one of these years he is going to discover his power stroke. When the Rays traded Young after the ’07 season, it was because they were trying to fill two needs moreso than any doubt they had in Young’s abilities. Still, in the end, we think the Rays will find a better option elsewhere…YES BUT NOT LIKELY

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Joe Strauss says the Rays and Cardinals match up well and wonders if a trade could be worked out with the Cardinals acquiring Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson for one of their left-handed hitting outfielders…Of the outfielders, are any of them worth one of the starting pitchers straight-up?

We agree with one commenter that said “Please God, not Chris Duncan.” Of the other three, only Ankiel seems to make sense. The Rays are reported to be looking for power. Ankiel is the only guy in that group that will hit 25 home runs in 2009. Obviously Rasmus is a great talent and full of potential, but we think the Rays would prefer somebody that is more major league-ready. But is Ankiel worth Jackson or Sonnanstine? It seems to us that the Cardinals would have to add a prospect to the pot…ANKIEL, BUT NOT STRAIGHT UP

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
The Mayor of Las Vegas is drooling over the Rays…Should Rays fans be concerned?

About moving to Vegas? No. Major League Baseball is way too image conscious to ever put a major league team in Vegas. That being said, the Rays do need to reach some sort of resolution with respect to a stadium either in St. Pete or Tampa or talk with other cities will start to heat up. If we had to guess, we would say San Antonio would be the front-runner, but don’t think Stuart Sternberg won’t explore a move to Brooklyn. The Mets and Yankees each drew more than 4 million fans in 2008. New York could easily support a third team. As for the currnet situation, in a few years, the cost of buying out the Trop’s lease will become less prohibitive and could be offset by the contributions of another city towards a new ballpark…YES, BUT NOT ABOUT VEGAS

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
Andrew Friedman recently said the Rays are open to talking with their three remaining free agents, Rocco Baldelli, Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd…Is it possible that any of these players will be back with the Rays in 2009?

We are not sure it will sink in until we see him wearing a Red Sox uniform, but it seems like Rocco’s career with the Rays is over. Floyd has decided to rehab his shoulder and will play in 2009, but the Rays would prefer a more dependable player. On the other hand, it would not shock us if the Rays bring Hinske back as a left-handed DH. Of course this depends on whether the impact bat they seek is a right fielder or a DH. If it is the former, Hinske becomes more attractive. But we have to wonder if he will still be available…YES

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
[Rain delay: queue Tommy Boy]

SEVENTH INNING (Oddsmakers)…
Chances Milton Bradley is playing for the Rays in 2009?

With word that the Cubs are in serious talks with Bradley, this is a long shot. The Rays are more likely to wait out the market and hope some scraps come their way on the cheap…16%

Chances Jason Giambi is playing for the Rays in 2009?

Apparently Giambi is telling friends that he will sign with the A’s, however the A’s are said to have other priorities. Giambi has also made it clear he wants to play on the west coast, but if the A’s fall through, there might not be another option. So the Rays best hope may be that Giambi signs a one year deal with the Rays and looks for another west coast team in 2010…8%

Chances Delmon Young is playing for the Rays in 2009?

Despite one report that the Rays would “never” take Young back, there are indications that they are at least exploring the possibility. Still, we doubt Young is near the top of their wish list…4%

Chances Garret Anderson is playing for the Rays in 2009?

Joe Maddon had some nice words for his former player, which some took as an indication that there might be a match between team and free agent. But what was Maddon supposed to say? Anderson seems like a long shot, at best…2%

Chances both Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson will be on the roster when pitchers and catchers report?

There are just too many rumors running around and it is still December…1%

Chances Rays move to Las Vegas?

There are too many better options (San Antonio, Charlotte, New Orleans, Orlando) to consider before risking a move to Vegas…0.5%

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
Andrew Friedman recently made it clear that David Price is not guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation…What is the over/under on his 2009 debut?

This depends greatly on whether the Rays trade Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson prior to opening day. If one is moved, is there another legitimate option for the 5th spot in the rotation? Jeff Niemann? Jason Hammel? Not likely…GAME 4

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Has Chad Orvella played his last game in a Rays uniform?

We are more curious as to whether or not Orvella received a playoff share despite spending the entire season on the DL. If so, that might have been one of the most lucrative injuries in the history of baseball. No way Orvella makes the major league roster this season, which means he would have made less than $100K in the minors. But with the injury occurring in the spring, the Rays kept him on the major league DL, and we assume he was paid the major league minimum ($400K). Add to that a possible dip into the playoff bonus pot and the shoulder injury might have made Orvella an extra $400K or so. What was the question?…YES

Has Rocco Baldelli played his last game in a Rays uniform?

Buster Olney said he would be “shocked” if Rocco did not sign with the Red Sox. This is the problem with the Rays “wait and see” approach. Fewer options…YES

The Bucs got spanked last night…Thoughts?

What? Oh sorry, we were distracted by the site of another Panthers running back dancing in the end zone. And on the other side of the ball, Bea Arthur scores more often than the Bucs offense in the Red Zone. …WE DON’T NEED THIS STRESS

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The Hot Stove season has been very quiet so far. In addition, several surprise names were not offered arbitration by their former teams…How will this affect the Rays as they begin to mold the 2009 roster?

Some are speculating that the current state of the economy has many teams scared to commit too much money to free agents. While the Rays are not immune to the market woes, they could ultimately benefit. The Rays were not in the market for any high-priced free agents to begin with, but if other teams are less likely to spend big bucks, some players that would normally be off the Rays’ radar, may have to lower their demands. But more importantly, the market may increase the demand for some of the Rays pitchers, ultimately driving up the price as other teams seek young, cheap alternatives and are more willing to pay for pitching with players than they would be with a free agent contract. This could make it easier for the Rays to part with players like Edwin Jackson and Jeff Niemann. And the Rays may actually find a trade partner for Jason Hammel when it looked previously that he may be a candidate to be DFA’d…RAYS MORE LIKELY TO BE ACTIVE

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
It is beginning to look as if Eddie Morlan will be selected early in the Rule 5 draft. Many are wondering why JK Ryu was not removed from the 40-man roster to make room for Morlan…Do they have a legitimate gripe?

On the surface it is hard to argue Ryu over Morlan, both right-handed relievers. Morlan is three years younger. Ryu is coming off a season in which an injury limited him to 6 appearances. Ryu has made 28 major league appearances over the past three seasons and his numbers (7.3 K/9, 1.8 K/bb, 1.82 WHIP) reek of a four-A player. And while Morlan did not dominate at double-A in 2008, his numbers were still respectable (3.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.62 K/9, 3.0 K/BB). And Morlan is one season removed from looking like he was on the fast-track to the majors (12.8 K/9, 5.0 K/BB in A+ and AA in ’07). So there must be something the Rays know that we do not. Is Morlan healthy? Does he have bad habits? Is Ryu close to breaking out? Keep in mind, Ryu only has 27 appearances as a relief pitcher in the last 3 seasons. Maybe the Rays are projecting something better once Ryu becomes acclimated to the bullpen. Still, there must be a fear that Morlan will realize his higher upside…THERE IS NOW PRESSURE ON RYU TO STEP UP

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Ken Griffey Jr is practically begging for a job and would be willing to accept a one-year deal with incentives for a chance to win a ring…Will The Kid be the Rays’ most-days DH in 2009?

Certainly there are other players RAYSHEADS would prefer to see at DH next season (ie. Jason Giambi), but one only need look at the Rays’ track record to see that Griffey makes much more sense. Prior to the 2008 season the Rays needed a closer and a DH. In both cases, the Rays signed a former all-star in the twilight of his career, and a recent history of injuries that scared off other teams. With Troy Percival and Cliff Floyd, the Rays were able to fill two openings with players that were cheaper than other, more attractive options. And in both cases, the Rays added a veteran player to the clubhouse that the younger stars could look up to and lean on. Griffey is basically Cliff Floyd with 378 more career home runs. And while Griffey played 2008 with a bad knee, off-season surgery and a role as DH, the Rays should be able to count on 120+ games. In fact, the more we think about it, the more it makes sense. So, unless another team is willing to go to two guaranteed years…KEN GRIFFEY JR WILL PROBABLY BE THE RAYS DH IN 2009

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
The Bucs keep winning, the latest being an important divisional win over the Saints. You already said their was a 100% chance they are going to the playoffs…How important is next Monday’s matchup with the Panthers?

With four games remaining, the Bucs basically have a 2 game lead for a playoff spot. Even with a loss at Carolina, the worst the Bucs would be is tied with Atlanta and Dallas, for two playoff spots. The Bucs currently have the tie-breaker over the Falcons. But, if the Bucs lose to the Panthers, they would be in line for a wild card game in Arizona. Not terrible, but that would just mean a second-round game in New Jersey against the Giants. Not fun. On the other hand, a win against the Panthers means a 2-game lead in the division (Bucs would have tie-breaker over CAR) with three games to play. Winning the division will most likely be the 2-seed, a first-round bye and a home game in the second round against maybe the Vikings. At that point the Bucs could hope for another team to upset the Giants. Either way, the Bucs would be one step away from being the first team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium…BIGGEST REGULAR SEASON GAME SINCE 2003 WEEK 1 IN PHILADELPHIA?

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn were three of the bigger names to not be offered arbitration by their former teams. As a result a team would not have to surrender a draft pick if they sign one of them. All three would fill either RF or DH nicely for the Rays…Does the lack of arbitration offers increase the chance of one of these players landing with the Rays?

Based on the slow market, the price on all three players will be lower than most thought a month ago. But even Abreu, maybe the cheapest option of the three, will still command $8-10 million per season. The Rays will only be able to afford a player at that price if they are able to cut payroll in other areas. And the lack of arbitration offers from their former teams will only increase their value as there is no additional cost to a prospective bidder. Lack of arbitration only makes these players more of a long shot for the Rays…STILL NOT LIKELY

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
[Rain delay: queue The Baseball Bunch]

SEVENTH INNING (Toss up)…
Ken Griffey Jr or Jason Giambi?

In 2008 Giambi was the better hitter. In 2009 Giambi will still be the better hitter. While the market may bring Giambi’s price down, we still think one of the big clubs will eventually ante up something that is beyond the budget of the Rays. That leaves the Rays looking elsewhere and Griffey seems to make sense…KEN GRIFFEY JR

Raul Ibanez or Gabe Gross?

Again. Ibanez is clearly the better player. But he would cost the Rays $10 million per season and a first round draft pick. The Rays have done nothing in the last three years to indicate that this is even remotely possible…GABE GROSS

Edwin Jackson or Jeff Niemann?

Assuming Andy Sonnanstine and David Price are in the rotation, one of the final spots in the bullpen could come down to Jackson or Niemann. Jackson will probably command in the neighborhood of $2.5 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Niemann will make close to $400K. Choosing Niemann will free up ~$2 million for the Rays to spend elsewhere. Jackson also figures to be worth more in the trade market. Unless the Rays think Jackson is head and shoulders better than The Giraffe, Niemann should be the guy…JEFF NIEMANN

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
Wade Davis will be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball in 2009…Is there any chance we will see Davis at the major league level this season?

This could depend on who the Rays are able to trade prior to the season. Including Davis, the Rays currently have 9 major league-caliber starting pitchers. Based on the current roster projection, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann and Mitch Talbot figure to have dibs on a spot in the rotation should one of the top five fall to injury. But there is a good chance Jackson and/or Niemann could be moved at some point. If that happens, Davis could suddenly be second in line. No matter what happens, we expect to see Davis at some point, even if it is as a reliever in September…YES

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Grant Balfour hinted that he will use the World Baseball Classic as a bargaining chip in negotiations this winter (he is arbitration eligible)…Do you have a problem with this?

We would be surprised if more players don’t use this tactic. Clearly the teams don’t want their pitchers playing in the WBC and the Rays need to be especially concerned with an already shortened off-season. The Rays are just going to have to accept that they will have to pay to keep Balfour out of the international competition…IT IS BUSINESS

Troy Percival finally decided to have surgery and will not be able to throw until March…Should RAYSHEADS be angry?

Angry? Not sure. But they might have a reason to be bothered by this. Did it take Percival a month to figure out he needed surgery on his back? Or did it take him a month to figure out he still wanted to play baseball?…DISAPPOINTED MIGHT BE A BETTER WORD

Her Rays is back with their series of “Rays as leading men in chick flicks” series. The latest is Dioner Navarro as Seth Rogen’s character in “Knocked Up”…Good choice?

Great googly moogly. We like it. But we wonder if Danny DeVito’s character in “Romancing the Stone” might be more on target or maybe Joe Pesci’s character in the “Lethal Weapon” series. Then again, maybe we are dating ourselves…IT WORKS

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The Rays added three players to the 40-man roster last week to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The most notable exception was Eddie Morlan…Was it a mistake to leave Morlan unprotected?

A quick look at the numbers shows Dale Thayer (2.82 tRA, 10.0 K/9 at AAA) was much stronger than Morlan (4.40 tRA, 8.62 K/9 at AA) this past season. Of course Thayer will be 28 next season and Morlan will only be 23. Morlan is only one season removed from being one of the best relief pitcher prospects in baseball. Still, Thayer is more likely to help a major league club in 2009. So if it is Thayer versus Morlan for one spot, we would have understood either choice. Of course, the Rays still have an empty spot on the roster, so the question is really: Morlan or the roster flexibility that comes from having an empty spot on the 40-man roster. The Rays chose the latter and as a result there is a good chance Morlan will be taken in the Rule 5 draft…GOOD CHANCE RAYS WILL LOSE MORLAN

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
The biggest need for the Rays this off-season appears to be a right fielder…If the Rays do not bring in somebody from outside the organization, who will be the starting right fielder on opening day?

The Rays have options (Fernando Perez, Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist, Jonny Gomes) but are any of them appealing as an everyday option? The Rays were well off the pace of league-average right fielders in 2008, and we don’t see anybody in that group that will change that scenario. Perez still has holes in his swing (172 to 66 strike out to walk ratio). We refuse to believe that Zobrist is suddenly going to slug .550 for a full season. The Rays clearly have lost faith in Gomes. That leaves Aybar. Maddon probably prefers to keep Aybar as a bench guy that receives 2-3 starts a week, but if the Rays are unable to make a trade or sign a free agent, Aybar will be the guy, although others will see time…WILLY AYBAR

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Rocco Baldelli met with Red Sox officials last week…Does this hurt the Rays chances of resigning Rocco?

There is a lot of sentimentality to keep Rocco and there is little question he can still be a force off the bench. But right now it seems like the Rays would rather see what else is out there before making a commitment to a player that won’t be able to play the field and might only face left-handed pitchers. If the Rays don’t bring in a full time DH, we can see Rocco resigned and forming a platoon with Willy Aybar at DH. But, by the time the Rays try to play that hand, we have a feeling Rocco will be gone. And boy is it gonna suck to see Rocco in a Red Sox uniform facing Scott Kazmir in Fenway in that second or third game of the season…ROCCO MIGHT HAVE TWO FEET OUT THE DOOR

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
The Rays still have an open slot on the 40-man roster following the most recent additions…Is there a possibility for the Rays to select a player in the Rule 5 draft?

One thing that will take a while to get used to, is the Rays drafting at the bottom of the board. In the Rule 5 draft next month and the Rule 4 draft next June, the Rays have pick #30. The chance a player worth keeping on the major league roster is still available is slim. Besides, the Rays prefer flexibility and a borderline major leaguer without an option is the opposite of flexibility. And looking back, this front office has yet to take a player in the Rule 5 draft for the purpose of keeping the player…NOT LIKELY

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
With the Rays declining the option on Cliff Floyd, the Rays suddenly have a need for a left-handed hitting DH…Is there any chance the Rays sign Jason Giambi?

We would love to see the Giambino in a Rays uniform next season. And we are not going to say it is impossible but a lot needs to happen before the Rays are even rumored to be serious suitors. The Rays first need to trade for a cheap right fielder. They need to move Carl Crawford and insert Fernando Perez in left field (saves Rays $8.25MM). The Rays need to sign a left-handed reliever for less than $2 million and they need to trade the arbitration-eligible Edwin Jackson (saves Rays $2-4MM). With Rocco’s $4 million buyout, the Rays payroll is already pushing $60 million. That is quite a leap from the opening day payroll of 2008 (~$43MM). Our gut says the Rays are looking at $60 million as a ceiling for the ’09 roster. So if the Rays want to add Giambi’s $10-12 million salary, they need to cut salary in other areas first. And even then…VERY LITTLE CHANCE

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
Last week it looked like a foregone conclusion that CC Sabathia would sign with the Yankees. Now the Yankees have set another one of their arbitrary deadlines…What will happen to the Yankees if Sabathia signs with another team?

Even better is Phil Rogers scenario: What happens if the Yankees fail to sign Sabathia, AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe, the three biggest free agent pitchers? Mike Mussina has retired and if you heard the press conference you know the Yankees won’t be able to talk him out of it. The Yankees would certainly stop playing hardball with Andy Pettite, but are the Yankees a contender with a 37-year old Pettite, Chien-Ming Wang, Phillip Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain Darrell Rasner as their rotation? That team could lose 90 games… WE WILL POP THE BUBBLY IF SABATHIA SIGNS WITH THE DODGERS OR GIANTS

SEVENTH INNING (Over/Unders)…
Date for the Rays first trade of the off-season: January 1

All signs indicate that the Rays are going to be very patient this off-season. Then again, it was the end of November last year when the Rays sent Delmon Young to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. We would not be surprised if a deal is made before the new year, but it seems like the Rays would rather play this hand slow and see what others do first…OVER

Number of players currently on the 40-man roster that will be traded prior to opening day: 2.5

The Rays have some decisions that have to be made. Jason Hammel, JK Ryu, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann and Jonny Gomes are all out of minor league options and few remaining roster spots. And while there are a number of people that think the Rays will keep both Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson, the addition of David Price would mean Jackson would have to be moved to the bullpen. Keep in mind Jackson is arbitration eligible and will be a very expensive middle reliever if he is kept. If Jackson stays, that is one less spot available for Hammel, Niemann and Ryu to compete for. The biggest question is whether there is a market for Hammel, Ryu or Gomes. We guess there is, but don’t expect much in return…OVER

Starts for David Price in the first week of the regular season: 0.5

The Rays kept Evan Longoria in Durham for two weeks prior to his promotion. Of course, he had yet to make his big league debut. It will be interesting. Price still only has 20 professional starts and only 5 above double-A. But how many rookies already have a game 7 ALCS save under their belts? While 4-5 starts in Durham would not surprise us, we think Price will be the #4 starter come opening day…OVER

Rays opening day payroll: $60 million

We have a feeling that $60 million is the number the Rays are trying to stay under. If we ignore Rocco Baldelli’s $4 million buyout, the payroll projection as of today is about $54.5 million. That includes our best guestimations on arbitration cases. That leaves some room to add a free agent right fielder or relief pitcher and we don’t see either of those costing more than $2-3 million. There is also room to free up some space if a player like Carl Crawford or Edwin Jackson is moved…UNDER

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
[Rain delay: queue The Baseball Bunch]

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Joe Magrane is leaving the Rays for the MLB Network…Who is most likely to take his place in the TV booth?

The two biggest candidates are Todd Kalas and Brian Anderson. Both subbed for Magrane when Magrane participated in the Olympic baseball coverage. Kalas seems more like a play-by-play guy to us. Anderson is certainly rough around the edges, and we suspect he would step on a few of Dewayne Staats calls (there is nothing more annoying in broadcasting than when a play-by-play guy is making a call during a dramatic moment of the game and the color guy tries to insert his two cents at the same time). Still, Anderson is probably the leading in-house candidate…BRIAN ANDERSON

The Bucs are 8-3…Is there any chance they miss the playoffs?

If the playoffs started today the Bucs would be the 2-seed. Even if the Bucs lose to the Panthers and lose the division, they still have a 1-game lead on the next three teams for the Wild Card (Was, Dal, Atl). The Bucs also have the tie-breaker over two of those three teams (Was, Atl) and a better conference record than all three. Those teams would have to win two more games than the Bucs in the last five. The Bucs are in the playoffs. The only question now is “what seed?”…NO

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
It has now been 3 weeks since the Rays lost the World Series, but at the same time concluded one of the most remarkable and improbable World Series runs in the history of the game…Looking back now, is there anything we have learned?

We feel it is pretty obvious the city of Philadelphia sold their soul to the Devil in order to win the World Series. First the Devil Rays split their ties with the Devil and in the next season won 97 games and the American League pennant. But the clearest piece of evidence is the grip the Devil has on Philadelphia’s beloved “Iggles”. We hope Philadelphians enjoy their World Series because their Eagles are going to be home for the playoffs for the second straight season after their tie against the Bengals who have only one win this season…THE PAIN, THE PAIN

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
David Price is expected to be in the rotation next season, replacing either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson…Is there a scenario in which the Rays would keep both Sonnanstine and Jackson next year?

If we assume that neither pitcher is traded, one must be moved to the bullpen. Sonnanstine was clearly the better starting pitcher of the two (it wasn’t even close). So if both pitchers are on the roster in 2009, Jackson would have to be in the bullpen (he is out of minor league options). The question then becomes: Is Jackson more valuable to the Rays as a relief pitcher or as a trade piece? Unless you can make a strong argument that Jackson will become a dominant closer, it seems that his true value is as a trade piece. Finding middle relievers in baseball is not easy, but it is not impossible either. The Rays are evidence of this. From the middle of 2007 until Spring Training of this past season, the Rays were able to completely overhaul their bullpen. On the other hand, there are plenty of teams desperate for starting pitching…ONLY AS A LAST RESORT

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
If the Rays are going to trade Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson…Who is the most likely to be moved?

From the last question it might seem that Jackson is the obvious answer, but not so quick. Jackson and Sonnanstine are polar opposites when it comes to young pitching talent. Sonny is dependable and consistent. He is a “what you see is what you get” starting pitcher. Meaning, he will win 12-15 games every year. He won’t break down. But he also won’t get much better than he is already. On the other hand, Jackson is still a work in progress and he has the arm to one day win a Cy Young award. But he also could completely fall apart and lose 17 games. If you polled 30 GMs, it would not surprise us if half preferred Sonny and half preferred Jackson. One thing is certain. The Rays like both pitchers. If the Rays stand to bring more back in return for Sonnanstine, Jackson will be the Rays 5th starter in 2009…NEITHER WOULD SURPRISE US

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
Outside of Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson…Who are the other players that could be moved this offseason?

The biggest name that has a good chance of being moved is Jeff Niemann, who is out of minor league options. There is a need for a long reliever in the bullpen, but like Jackson, Niemann has more value to the Rays as a starting pitcher trade chip than as a once-a-week relief pitcher. Another big name is Carl Crawford, although we think this is a very long shot. He only has 2 years left on a deal in which the Rays owe CC $18 million. If the team wants to save a few dollars, this is the player they will look to move. Crawford may even prefer a move as he has openly complained about how the FieldTurf is hard on his legs. To a lesser extent, it would not surprise us if either Willy Aybar or Ben Zobrist are traded. While the Rays would certainly prefer to keep both, another team may view one of those players as a potential starter. If so, the package offered could be too good to ignore…JEFF NIEMANN, CARL CRAWFORD, WILLY AYBAR, BEN ZOBRIST

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
Rocco Baldelli has filed for free agency…Does this mark the end of his career with the Rays?

The funniest thing we have heard during the Hot Stove season so far is the suggestion by some that the Rays should somehow convince Rocco to retire and accept a job as a coach with the Rays. Why would any fan ever prefer to see Rocco coaching over playing, even if it is with another team? There will be plenty of time for Rocco to come back as a coach once his playing career is over. In the meantime, he has made it very clear that he wants to play in 2009 and thinks he can play about 100 games as a DH and occasional outfielder. There are enough rumblings that other teams are interested in Baldelli’s services (Boston, Philadelphia) that we have to wonder if he will be back with the Rays in 2009. Still, we think Rocco’s preference is to play with the Rays and we have to assume the Rays want him back…NOT YET

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
With most of the Rays roster set for 2009, the team figures to be very quiet in the free agent market…What other team should RAYSHEADS watch closely during the Hot Stove season?

CC Sabathia to the Yankees appears to be a foregone conclusion. The only question at this point is how much he is going to cost. Certainly Sabathia makes the Yankees a contender again in ’09, but this signing could eventually help the Rays. It has been reported that the Yankees initial offer would be the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. If Sabathia can drive the price up even further, that is less money the Yankees will have to spend elsewhere (even the Yankees have a budget). And the Yankees have a number of holes to fill, especially on the offensive side of the ball…NEW YORK YANKEES

SEVENTH INNING (Oddsmakers)…
What are the odds of the Rays trading either Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson?

There are reports that many teams are expressing interest in one or both starting pitchers. It is not impossible that both pitchers are kept around, at least for the beginning of the season, but in the end, somebody will make the right offer…90%

What are the odds of Rocco Baldelli playing for the Rays in 2009?

If Rocco is back with the Rays in 2009 it will be because this is where he wants to be. It will not be because of money as it is likely that he will receive a more lucrative offer from another team. And while we would never fault a player for taking the biggest offer, it will not surprise us if Rocco bases his decision on his mitochondrial disorder. With the Rays, Rocco has a team that knows him and his condition. The Rays know what Rocco is capable of and how best to utilize him. Also, with the Rays, Rocco may feel a sense of obligation. A sense of “unfinished business”…60%

What are the odds of Jeff Niemann being part of the Rays bullpen in 2009?

Certainly Niemann could be the Rays long reliever in 2009 and there is a chance he could be groomed to be a future closer. But once the Rays go down that path, any value in the trade market Niemann might have as a starting pitcher prospect goes out the window…10%

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
The Rays still have Troy Percival signed for the 2009 season, but with potential surgeries for his back and legs, his health is in question…Who will be the Rays closer in 2009?

The most important question is: How healthy will Troy Percival be and is his body able to handle a full season at his age (and size)? As we saw last week, Percival was an effective closer in 2008, when he was healthy. But there are still questions about whether Percy needs offseason surgery on his back and possibly his knee. If he is healthy, Percival will be the closer. If he is not 100%, look for Joe Maddon to treat the bullpen the same way he did in the postseason, even if the Rays do sign a free agent relief pitcher. Maddon will play the matchups each night with Dan Wheeler receiving the majority of save opportunities. Grant Balfour and JP Howell will also see their fair share of 9th innings…TROY PERCIVAL OR COMMITTEE

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Joe Maddon is one of 17 nominated by writers for the Sports Illustrated “Sportsman of the Year”…Does he actually have a chance of winning?

We have no idea what criteria Sports Illustrated plans on using this year. Sometimes it is on field accomplishments. Sometimes it is off-field endeavors. But Maddon and the Rays are certainly worthy of consideration…YES

David Price is one of four finalists for ESPN the Magazine’s “Next” title…Should Price be the favorite?

Matt Ryan is certainly a legitimate candidate, but the other two are a driver and a European basketball player that hasn’t even been drafted yet…YES

According to at least one book, the Rays are tied for the 8th favorite, at 16/1, to win the World Series in 2009…Too high or too low?

If they played the 2009 season 16 times, the Rays would once? Considering the two biggest favorites are also from the AL East, that sounds about right…ABOUT RIGHT

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
The heart of the order for the Rays carried the offense in the ALCS…Can they keep it up?

After going 2-13 with no RBI in the first game, batters 2-5 (BJ Upton, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford) hit .405/.474/.957 (1.430 OPS) in the next 4 games while the team went 3-1. Upton and Crawford are the biggest surprises. Upton was unable to attack pitches with his shoulder injury most of the season, but now appears as though he has put that behind him. Crawford looks like a guy that is desperate to prove that he is still important. Longoria and Pena? Those guys are just awesome….GET USED TO IT

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
The Rays played 9 games this season in a NL park without the DH…What can we learn from those games?

The Rays were last in baseball with 23 sacrifices. In 9 games in NL parks the Rays employed the sac bunt 3 times. In DH-games the Rays sac bunted once every 7.7 games. So Papa Joe does tend to get a bit more Nationalistic without the DH. The other question is what Joe Maddon will do with the lineup without a DH in Philly. Our guess is the DHs Willy Aybar and Cliff Floyd will sit in Philadelphia. Floyd is not a big loss, but Aybar was a huge bat in September and so far in the postseason. His bat will be missed…MORE SAC BUNTS AND LESS AYBAR IN PHILLY

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
The Phillies feature two lefties in their rotation and the Rays struggle against lefties…Are they in trouble?

During the regular season the Rays struggled against lefties going 40-41 against left-handed starters. But in the postseason, the Rays are now 3-1 against lefties. In addition to the historic runs by BJ Upton and Evan Longoria, a big reason for the new found success against lefties is the emergence of Rocco Baldelli and Willy Aybar as legitimate offensive threats. In the ALCS, Baldelli and Aybar hit a combined 10-25 (.400) with 3 HR and 10 RBI (1.223 OPS). Also Jamie Moyer is not scaring anybody… RAYS WERE 2-0 VERSUS LESTER

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
David Price shut down the Red Sox for a 4-out save in game 7 of the ALCS…Who is going to close for the Rays in the World Series?

Since Troy Percival went on the DL, Joe Maddon has gone closer-by-committee, with Dan Wheeler receiving the majority of the save opportunities. But after Wheeler struggled during the comeback in game 5, Maddon chose to go with Wheeler early in game 7 and then brought David Price in for the final 4 outs. Maddon will still go closer-by-committee in the World Series, with an eye towards matchups, but don’t be surprised to see Price in the 9th inning during the World Series…WHOMEVER IS LEFTOVER AFTER THE 7TH AND 8TH INNINGS

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
Scott Kazmir struggled down the stretch for the Rays but was solid in his last start in the ALCS…Which Kazmir can we expect in the World Series?

In September and his first start of the postseason, Kazmir seemed to be struggling mentally. In many of his recent starts he seemed more worried about his mechanics than the batter. When Joe Maddon move Kid K up to game 5 at Fenway, the crowd and the pressure of the situation seemed to refocus Kazmir and he dominated the Sox for 6 innings. If Kazmir starts looking down at his landing foot in the first inning of game 1, the Rays will be in trouble. If Kazmir can focus on the batters, he is capable of shutting the Phillies down for 5+ inning… DEPENDS ON IF HIS FEET ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN BATTER

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
Normally this is where we would look at other series of importance…But SWEET. FANCY. MOSES…THERE ARE NO OTHER SERIES

SEVENTH INNING (Over/Unders)…
0.5 saves for David Price in the World Series:

The two relievers that Maddon has the most confidence in are JP Howell and Grant Balfour, although The Mad Australian struggled in the ALCS. So when big outs are needed in the 7th and 8th inning, those are the pitchers you will see. As for Price, game 7 was a big breakthrough but it is difficult to gauge what that will mean for the World Series. Maddon clearly has confidence in Price so it will not surprise us to see him in the 9th inning at some point, but he has yet to work back-to-back days so the opportunities will be limited…OVER, BARELY

3.5 wins in the World Series:

All the Rays have done all season is win when nobody thought they would…OVER

5.5 games needed to win the World Series:

Joe Maddon has preached “one game at a time” all year long and in the postseason they continue to play as if it is these are just mid-May games. If the World Series goes like the regular season and the postseason so far, it should be fairly scripted. The Rays will take an early advantage. At some point in the series, they will be on the brink and as they have been doing since June, the experts will tell us that the clock is about to strike midnight. And just when everybody thinks the Rays are dead, they will do what they have done all year. They will win. Ahh. Who are we kidding. Rays are clearly the better team…RAYS IN FOUR (UNDER)

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
The Rays have home field advantage in the World Series thanks to an All-Star game win…Will this venue have an impact on the series?

Game 1 will mark the first time in 2008 that the Phillies will play on artificial turf. This is not something to take lightly. The Rays have one of the best infield defenses in baseball. An argument could be made for 3 or 4 gold gloves in the Rays infield. The Rays infield is used to the fast turf. The quick bounces and the fast track are something the Phillies infielders are not used to. At some point in games 1 or 2, the Rays will benefit…GOOD FOR 1 OR 2 RUNS IN GAMES 1 AND 2

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
There has been a lot of talk that the Phillies have a big advantage when comparing bullpens…Should we be concerned?

The Rays did struggle in the ALCS for the first time all season, but beware of small sample sizes. Also, the mainstream media sees an absence of Troy Percival and his 28 saves and don’t understand that the Rays bullpen is better with David Price in Percy’s place…THE BULLPEN WILL BE GREAT

If the Rays lose the World Series is this season a success?

On the one hand, “yes”, as nobody thought the Rays would get this far. But then again, the Rays are no lock to get back anytime soon. It would be a success if they hadn’t gotten this far. But the Rays are this far. Either win or go home…NO

Matt Garza was named the MVP of the ALCS…Do you agree?

Earlier this season Garza started seeing a sports psychologist and has been great ever since…CAN WE GET THE PSYCHOLOGIST A PLAYOFF SHARE?

Matt Garza was named the MVP of the ALCS…If the Rays win the World Series, who will be named World Series MVP?

Co-MVPs seem like a long-shot, so we have to pick between BJ Upton and Evan Longoria. We think there is a Longoria bias…EVAN LONGORIA

Will the Red Sox overcome a 4 games to 3 deficit?

If it keeps the Red Sox Nation from vandalizing Faneuil Hall…LET THEM KEEP HOPING

Besides having to beat a Philadelphia team, are there any other similarities with the 2002 Bucs Super Bowl team?

In the matchup to determine the two finalists, an underdog Bucs squad beat a familiar nemesis that was used to getting the better of Tampa Bay. The Super Bowl was almost a bit anticlimactic. The story seems familiar…LOOK FOR A WORLD SERIES BLOWOUT

Do you care if people outside of Philadelphia and Tampa-St. Pete watch this series?

They will miss an opportunity to see an exciting team…NO

We have heard that you pick your beverage for a series based on the opponent…What is the drink of choice for the ALCS?

Seriously? This is Philly we are talking about. Those guys will drink anything. Besides it is no longer necessary to pick a beverage based on the opponent. Rather pick something pro-Rays. We need big series from El Gato del Crimen (Carlos Pena) in general, and we need a big series from Willy Aybar against Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer. So let’s go Dominicano…EL PRESIDENTE

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
In game 6, TBS lost their feed to the baseball broadcast and people watching at home missed the first inning…How can a network let something like this happen?

TBS blamed the the problem on what sounded like a piece you could buy at Best Buy for $30. We suppose that sort of thing happens, but if TBS wants to play with the big boys, how is it that they don’t have a secure backup plan and when things do go bad, why are the fans subjected to an episode of “The Steve Harvey Show” without any explanation of what is happening for over 30 minutes. And there were other feeds still coming from the park (we picked up ESPN-China, don’t ask), so couldn’t TBS tap into those feeds until theirs is repaired? Unfortunately we are stuck with TBS until 2013 as that is the length of the current television contract…STEVE HARVEY? REALLY?

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
James Shields struggled in game 6, needing over 90 pitches to get through 5 innings and not surviving the 6th…What went wrong?

Shields did not have his good changeup and it could have been due to the long layoff from his last start. When a pitcher that depends on a changeup gets too much rest they can be too strong and overthrow their changeup. In that case, the changeup will either hang in the strikezone or the pitcher will try to overcompensate and end up throwing the change in the dirt. A good changeup pitcher will get a lot of swing-and-misses on the change. Last night, Shields threw the change 29 times and only got 4 swing-and-misses. He also missed the strikezone with his change 15 times. Normally that is not bad, but the Sox weren’t biting, which means the pitch was either in the dirt or the Sox hitters were just laying off (both happened)…NO CHANGEUP

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
There has been a lot of second-guessing of Joe Maddon in the last two games…Are there any moves that were questionable?

Are only problem with the bullpen is the use of Dan Wheeler. In fact we go back to game 2 when Wheeler worked parts of 4 innings. Maddon wants the players to keep playing the game the same as they have all season, and yet Maddon uses Wheeler in a manner he wouldn’t have done during the regular season. We feel Maddon got lucky in game 2 and pushed his luck too far in game 5. The only other questionable decision is leaving Gabe Gross in right field up 7-0 in game 5. Gross is a good right fielder, but Fernando Perez is better and clearly has more range. There is no need to save Perez for a pinch-running spot with the Rays up 7-0 and Gross’ bat is no longer needed. So we still don’t know why Perez was not in the game…NO REASON NOT TO HAVE PEREZ IN RF IN 7TH INNING OF GAME 5

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
Tonight the Rays will send Matt Garza to the hill…What will be the key to a strong game?

It never changes for Garza. He must get ahead of the batter with strike-one. Garza has the one pitch that every pitcher desires. He can throw a 95-mph fastball with movement. It is a great pitch, but it is better when the batter isn’t sure it is coming. When Garza gets ahead of the batter with strike-one, he is able to mix in his other pitches and it is 50-50 whether he will throw a fastball or not. That keeps the batter on his heels. However, when Garza falls behind the batter with ball-one, the chance of seeing a fastball on pitch two goes up to about 80%. That is a huge advantage to the batter. In Garza’s best starts this season he was able to get ahead of batters. So watch early and see if the first pitch to each batter is a strike or ball. If there are more strikes than balls, the Red Sox hitters are in for a long night…STRIKE ONE

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
The Red Sox will send Jon Lester to the mound on an extra day of rest after getting pounded in game 3…Can he rebound and pitch well tonight?

Lester looked tired in game 3 and there is a good chance he is pitching with a tired arm right now. After his game 3 start Lester has now thrown 230 innings this season. In 2007 Lester only threw 163 innings including the playoffs. That is a 41.1% increase over the year before. If you play fantasy baseball, you might want to avoid Lester next season. But for tonight, Lester may not have his best stuff. He could still fight his way through 5 or 6 innings, but expect him to be on a short leash…WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A TIRED ARM

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
[TBS blackout delay...cue an episode of "Martin"]

SEVENTH INNING (Toss up)…
First pitcher out of the bullpen tonight…Grant Balfour or JP Howell?

Balfour does not seem to have the same fire in the ALCS that he had in the ALDS, so he needs to find it and find it quick. Still, he is the one pitcher that we have the most confidence in, and we want The Mad Australian in the most crucial spot…SOMEBODY NEEDS TO INSULT BALFOUR’S MOTHER

Which starting pitcher will work deeper into the game…Matt Garza or Jon Lester?

Both pitchers will be on a short leash, but if Lester is pitching with a tired arm, he might not make it past 5 innings. Garza is capable of going 8, but look for Maddon to go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble in the 6th or 7th…GARZA

Which team will be AL champions…Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox?

This game is at the Trop. The pitching matchup is a toss-up. Rays hitters know they can hit Lester. Take bias and historical ghosts out of it, and the Rays have to be the favorite…TAMPA BAY RAYS

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
Many think the result of tonight’s game is a foregone conclusion…Is there anything that should give RAYSHEADS confidence?

We certainly feel better about this game at the Trop than if the game was in Fenway. In the last 78 games at the Trop, the Rays have lost 2 in a row only two times. And once again the Rays are playing the roll of the little kid that sneaks up to the adult table and is being told they don’t belong. And every time the other team and the media and general baseball fans start doubting the Rays, all they do is win. This is not the ’04 Red Sox and this is not the ’07 Red Sox. However, this is the ’08 Rays and never has their been a more resilient underdog. The Red Sox are throwing a pitcher with a tired arm. It is imperative that Rays hitters stay patient and make Lester work. If they do that, they will score runs. And as long as Garza gets ahead of the batters, the Red Sox hitters will struggle. Nobody thinks the Rays can win tonight, but…THE RAYS ARE THE BETTER TEAM

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
When a router went down in Atlanta, TBS turned to an episode of “The Steve Harvey Show”…Was this good publicity for Steve Harvey?

More people probably watched that single episode than watched the entire series combined. However, nobody was exactly very happy about having to watch Steve Harvey. And why is “The Steve Harvey Show” the default go-to show for TBS when there is a total system failure? Is that the best they got?…LET’S HOPE THAT IS THE LAST TIME WE SEE STEVE HARVEY

After all that is happened with the Rays being 9 outs from the World Series…Will this season be a disappointment should the Rays lose game 7?

Shhhhhhhhh…THERE IS NO ‘LOSE’, ONLY ‘WIN’

We have heard that you pick your beverage for a series based on the opponent…What is the drink of choice for game 7?

There is plenty of Boddington’s in the fridge, but the most important drink will be on ice…CHAMPAGNE

FIRST INNING (A look back)…
In game 1 the Rays were shutout and didn’t get a hit until the 7th inning. In game 2 the Rays scored 8 runs in the first 5 innings, including 3 home runs…Which offense are we more likely to see the rest of the series?

We expect game 3 to be low scoring with Jon Lester and Matt Garza. But the 8 runs scored is closer to the real Rays than the 4-hit shutout. David Ortiz said the Rays looked nervous and Joe Maddon agreed. For the first time this season, the Rays looked like a young team that snuck into the adult club and then had no idea what to do. One day after the heart of the order (Upton, Pena, Longoria, Crawford) went a combined 2-13 with 3 walks and 5 Ks, the quartet went 8-19 with 1 walk, 3 Ks and 8 RBI. There have not been too many games in which all four of those guys were available. Once the Rays get past the lefty tonight, we should see more of game 2 the rest of the series…RAYS ARE STARTING TO CLICK

SECOND INNING (Headlines)…
Scott Kazmir once again struggled early on in game 2 and recently has looked more like Casey Fossum than the ace he should be. Now Joe Maddon may move Kazmir up a spot in the rotation bringing him back in game 5, and holding James Shields back to game 6…Is this a good idea?

We need to look at this from the point-of-view of both Kazmir and Shields. For Kazmir, he would be on normal rest. He does have a history of big starts in Boston (3.15 ERA in his last 7 Fenway starts), so the atmosphere shouldn’t affect him. Also, we wonder if the crowd noise and pressure will actually be a good thing for Kaz. Right now Kazmir seems to be struggling mentally. By his own admission he becomes fixated on solving mechanical issues during the game. In Fenway, the crowd and the pressure of the situation may actually distract him from his mechanics and help him focus on the task at hand. As for Shields. Shields pitches much better at home, so holding him back for game 6 could be a good idea. The downside is getting too much rest. If Shields does not pitch until game 6, that would be 7 days of rest. Occasionally a pitcher will be too strong if he has too much rest. Normally being stronger is a good thing. But if the pitcher’s best pitch is a changeup, being “too strong” can keep the changeup up in the strike zone…WORRIED MORE ABOUT SHIELDS THAN KAZMIR

THIRD INNING (Headlines)…
Troy Percival is not with the team this series, choosing to be at home with his family…What does this mean for Percival and the Rays moving forward?

This is a very surprising move. Especially considering everybody else that was left off the roster is with the team and even participating in pregame warmups with the active squad. The Rays have Percy under contract for ’09. Based on the slew of injuries this season, being left off the postseason roster and now this, we have to wonder if his heart is still in the game. We would not be surprised if Percival retires after the season. The Rays have a closer-in-training with Grant Balfour and even if he is not deemed ready at the beginning of next season, they could still go with Dan Wheeler for the time being…WE MAY HAVE SEEN THE END OF TROY PERCIVAL

FOURTH INNING (Headlines)…
Evan Longoria has apparently apologized for comments he made during an interview last week (Recap can be found here)…Was the apology necessary and why hasn’t this been a bigger issue with the mainstream media?

As a follow-up question in which Carlos Pena’s Dominican heritage was brought up, Longoria said of Pena, “I don’t even look at him as Dominican, and that’s nothing against Dominicans, but he’s been in the States for so long — he went to high school and college here — in the States. He’s very well educated and it’s tough for me to look at him and think he came from the Dominican.” It seems to us that Longoria is not saying Dominicans are uneducated. Rather Longoria is just pointing out that Pena was educated in the United States so English really isn’t a second-language to Pena. In other words, because of his upbringing Pena sounds more American than somebody that has only been here a few years and is still learning the English language. That being said, we completely understand why Dominicans and Latinos would be offended by this statement. But what he said and what he was trying to say were two different things…YES AND NO, IT WAS JUST A SIMPLE CASE OF MISSPEAK

FIFTH INNING (Headlines)…
There is a lot of talk about how great Jon Lester has been for the Red Sox, especially in the postseason…Is he as good as advertised?

At only 24, Lester could very well be the Red Sox’ ace already, and he is even better in the postseason. Dating back to last season, Lester has made 3 playoff starts and has yet to allow a run. He has worked 19.2 innings (as a starter), giving up 13 hits and 6 walks, while striking out 14. On top of that, he is a lefty and the Rays struggle against lefties. But let’s keep in mind that his three starts came against the ’07 Rockies and the ’08 Angels, two highly overrated ballclubs. He is good. But we need to see a little more before we stamp his ticket to Cooperstown…GOOD? YES. GREAT? WE’LL SEE

SIXTH INNING (A look outside the box)…
[Red Sox fan running on the field delay: Queue the tasers]

SEVENTH INNING (Over/Unders)…
1.5 runs by the Rays off of Jon Lester tonight:

We wouldn’t be surprised if the score is 1-0 or 1-1 or 2-1 after 6 innings. In other words, Matt Garza needs to keep the game close and hope the Rays have another one of their late-inning rallies…UNDER

1.5 stolen bases for the Rays tonight:

This is an area that the Rays need to step up. In the first two games combined, the Rays combined for 1 stolen base. Jason Varitek threw out only 22.2% of would-be base stealers this season. Unfortunately Jon Lester has an above-average pickoff move so opportunities will be scarce. Rays will only steal tonight if they get to Lester early and get into the bullpen…UNDER

6.2 innings for Matt Garza tonight:

Garza is capable of working late into the night, but we wonder if the length (time) of these games will push a manager to take a pitcher out earlier than he would normally. Also, with the off-day yesterday, most of the bullpen should be well-rested. Once Garza gets past the 5th inning, Joe Maddon will likely pull him at the first hint of trouble…UNDER

EIGHTH INNING (On deck)…
Many are talking about the game 3 matchup between Jon Lester and Matt Garza as if it is a guaranteed win for the Red Sox…Is there any chance the Rays could take a 2-1 lead in this series?

We don’t do a lot of gambling, but this game is starting to sound an awful lot like the sure-thing bet that everybody jumps on. Those games always seem to go against the public. Garza is capable of pitching a 2-hit shutout if he can keep his emotions in check. And much of the Rays struggles against righties this season came before the return of Rocco Baldelli who will be in right field tonight. The key will be Evan Longoria and BJ Upton. They have both had big games in the postseason. The Rays will need at least one of them to step up tonight…SURE THINGS HAVE A FUNNY WAY OF BEING SOMETHING ELSE ENTIRELY

NINTH INNING (Putting out the fire)…
Joe Maddon drinks wine after every game…Should Papa Joe keep the red wine in the rack during this series?

Maddon drinking red wine while playing the Red Sox in the ALCS is almost as bad Ferg’s serving Sam Adams during the series…JIM HICKEY NEEDS TO GET PAPA JOE A BEER

Rocco Baldelli will start in right tonight with Willy Aybar at DH and Fernando Perez on the bench…Are the Rays stronger with Perez in right and Rocco at DH?

We like Perez doing what he should have done in game 1 and what he did do in game 2. Pinch-running. That is a lot of pressure on the basepaths late in the game…NO

The Red Sox flew home after game 2, arriving in Boston at 7am and then had a workout at Fenway later in the day. The Rays chose not to leave until 2pm the next day and Joe Maddon canceled a planned workout…Was this the smart move?

It is two days later and we are still beat up from game 2. The extra rest will do them more good than a sluggish workout…YES