We have had some discussion here recently about projection systems. A recent look at several systems suggests the Rays will win about 90 games this season and finish third in the AL East. This, and a recent article in the Orange County Register got us wondering…What is the full potential [...]
![[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 2008 Preseason Mathematical Projections: A Look Back](http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3024/2999649517_626d2d9e0b_o.jpg)
Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulates the 2008 season [...]
![[SHOWER-SHOE FUNGUS] Playing A Little Pepper: St. Louis Cardinals](http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/25315247-4434793154721866175.gif?l=raysindex.blogspot.com)
Over/Unders: 88 wins for the Rays, as predicted by PECOTA in the preseason: The Rays as of today, sit at 24-17. In order to win 88 games, they need to only go 64-57. In other words, they have played 7-over .500 in the first quarter of the season and need [...]
![[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The Mathematical Definition Of "The Rays Are Getting Warmer"](http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2354/2361566833_49b459de62_o.jpg)
Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80. In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”. The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees [...]
![[HAPPY HOUR] Reid Brignac’s Little Piggy Not Going To Bat](http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/25315247-2038537855156030290.gif?l=raysindex.blogspot.com)
Tampa Bay Rays (33 days until Opening Day) The injury bug is striking the Rays camp early this year. After earlier scares from Scott Kazmir and David Price, we now get word that Reid Brignac will miss a week with a broken toe. In other injury news from yesterday’s intrasquad [...]
The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2007 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2007 season using player projections from four different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind’s projections and Sean Smith’s CHONE [...]
Yesterday we presented the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for the Rays position players. Today we take a look at the weighted mean PECOTA projections for the pitchers. Please see yesterday’s post for an explanation of PECOTA. Player W L ERA IP H BB SO Scott Kazmir 10 7 4.02 151.0 [...]
Those lost souls that actually follow the Rays closely know that there is talent on this team and several players have a chance to break out this season. We here at RI try to stay level-headed and not get too optimistic with expectations for individual players. We have an idea [...]
