Archive for the 'Mike Ekstrom' Category

Aug 10

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss King David’s Heater, CC’s New Spot And Testing The Pitching Depth

Carl Crawford, David Price, Derek Dietrich, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Ekstrom, Wade Davis 6 Comments »

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: David Price. It wasn’t King David at his best as he walked 4 batters and last only 5 innings. But with a fastball reaching 100mph, Price struck out 9 and showed that (at times) he can be as dominating as anybody in baseball right now…Matt Joyce. In his first game back in Detoit, Little Cat homered to lead off the 3rd and even the score at 1-1…John Jaso. JJ led off and picked up 2 singles and a double. He helped set up the go-ahead run with a single that moved Jason Bartlett to third and he drove in a run and scored a run in the important 2-run 9th that gave the Rays some breathing room…Chad Qualls. Joe Maddon loves a reliever that can work across multiple innings. And with JP Howell out this season, JoeMa’s ability to do that has been limited. But yesterday, Qualls came in to a 2-run game in the 6th and recorded 5 outs without giving up a run and kept the Tigers in check…Evan Longoria. We’ll never get tired of watching Dirtbag play defense.

THE BAD: Testing the Depth. Following the game, Wade Davis was placed on the DL (replaced by Jeremy Hellickson), joining Jeff Niemann who went on the DL prior to the game (replaced by Mike Ekstrom). Even though Joe Maddon called the moves “precautionary,” this is VERY concerning. Watching Davis’ last start in which his fastball was only in the upper-80s, we have a feeling he will be on the shelf for a while. In the meantime, the Rays will have both Hellickson and Andy Sonnanstine in the rotation. Obviously both were impressive in their last outings, but there is a reason The Duke is in the bullpen and the Rays will want to limit Hellboy’s workload down the stretch. Precautionary? Maybe. Or it could be the spin-doctoring of what could turn out to be the Rays’ nightmare scenario.

THE TELLING: David Price became the first player in franchise history to win 15 games in a season…Carl Crawford batted third. It was exactly two years to the day since the last time CC started a game and wasn’t batting second. In that 2008 game he also batted third…2nd round pick Derek Dietrich has not played since August 1st (injured finger).

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 68-44, 1.5 games behind the Yankees (2 in the loss column) and 4.5 games ahead of the Red Sox (5 in the loss column). After 112 games in 2008, the Rays were 67-45.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

Jun 05

Expected Strikeout% in the American League – 2010

Andy Sonnanstine, Dan Wheeler, David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Joaquin Benoit, Matt Garza, Mike Ekstrom, Uncategorized, Wade Davis 6 Comments »

With Cork doing all these excellent evaluative posts on the team, I figured it was a good time to update one of my favorite pitching statistics.  You won’t find it on Fangraphs, or anywhere else for that matter, because a user over at Draysbay named Matthan developed a way to estimate the percentage of batters that a pitcher should be striking out.  Here is the formula that he came up with:

K%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Where CIStr%= Called Strike%, InZSwStr%= Swinging strikes in the zone, and OZSwStr%=Swing strikes out of the zone

You can see that the biggest weight here is for OZSwStr%, indicating that the best strike that a pitcher can get is to get a batter to whiff out of the strike zone.  The worst thing that can happen is to give up a ball in play.  For those that are curious this regression has an Adjusted R-Squared of 91.4%, extremely strong.  I updated this metric over the off-season for AL starting pitchers with at least 300 expected outs which you can find here.  You can see the AL East breakout, but probably want to click on the link to the Google document with the whole workbook.

Shut that yawn down for a sec, because I’m getting on with it, just wanted to give a little background.  In this iteration I took a look at all AL pitchers with at least 10 innings.  This does not include the Royals, because I couldn’t access the data when I was compiling everything, and it’s the Royals, so who cares?  Here’s a look at just the Rays:

Rank is where each pitcher came in out of 167, eK% is the metric we’re looking at, aK% is the actual K% (SO/PA), and Delta is the difference between the two.  So wow, Joaquin Benoit has the highest eK% in the American League, quite the feat, but on the other side of the coin Lance Cormier has one of the lowest in the league.  The simple average of all these pitchers is 19.3%, so everyone but Ekstrom, Sonny, Niems, and Lance are above-average according to this.  You can use the Delta to see which guys are over-achieving (Dan Wheeler) and which are under-achieving (Wade Davis).  I find it interesting that James Shields leads the starting pitchers, even though it’s generally thought that Garza and Price have better stuff.  For those that have missed it, and as Cork showed capably yesterday, James is having a really, really good year even if he’s not getting the pub.  How good does the Benoit signing look at this point?

I’ll give a link at the end to a Google document that will have everybody since I don’t want to take up too much space here, but let’s take a look at the top and bottom of the list to see who else might be crushing it (or not).  Here’s the Top-19:

Well this pretty much confirms that you’d expect a reliever to have higher strikeout ratios than a starter (outside of Morrow, Hughes, and Weaver).  We see Benoit again and a trio of White Sox led by the sensational Matt Thornton.  J.J. Putz has Mets fans shaking their heads at what could have been and several other familiar names of very, very good pitchers that can sit ‘em down.  Interestingly, Papelbon is grossly under-performing what you would expect.  Let’s take a look at the bottom-20 to see if that also passes the smell test:

Again, we can see a lot of strike throwers that don’t get a ton of whiffs in this group, including a bunch of Orioles (wonder why they’re bullpen is turrible and they’re the worst in the Majors?), and there’s Lance.  It should not be interpreted that these guys are necessarily bad, as Buehrle is pretty good as is Blackburn, but these guys are never going to get a ton of strikeouts.

Now let’s take a look at just the top 30 of just starters:

I’d be interested in any thoughts that the discerning reader might have, but I did want to add one more comment.  Jeff Niemann’s success on the mound is so absolutely fun to watch because he doesn’t seem to have the best stuff out there and he isn’t going to be a huge strikeout guy, but batters look so frustrated against him it’s comical.  Perhaps it’s the way he mixes his pitches, but he never seems to give up solid contact and always seems to get a key pop-up or double play ground ball.

Lastly, as mentioned above, here is a LINK to the Google document that has the entire list as well as the component statistics for those that are curious.

Jun 04

A Look At Rays Pitchers Through The Eyes Of Lady Luck

David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Matt Garza, Mike Ekstrom, Wade Davis 1 Comment »

Earlier today we took a look at the hitters and luck. Now let’s take a gander at the pitchers.

For pitchers we will use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and expected FIP (xFIP). In very basic terms, think ERA but better. FIP looks at the statistics for which pitchers are most responsible such as home runs, walks and strikeouts. If a pitcher’s expected FIP is significantly less than ERA that is an indication that the pitcher has been unlucky. In other words, he is pitching better than his stats might indicate (check this link for an explanation of FIP).

Notes on the table are below…

Notes on the table…

  • We should expect to see some strong deviations from expected due to the small sample size of innings pitched. This especially true of the relief pitchers.
  • Since FIP is on an ERA scale, we can compare the two values. This can tell us if a pitcher is pitching better or worse than their ERA would indicate. Mike Ekstrom and Randy Choate have been the two unluckiest pitchers. However, even Ekstrom’s FIP is not good, so luck is a relative thing. At the other end of the spectrum, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit and David Price all have ERAs that are well-below their FIPs.
  • Four of the five starting pitchers (David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Matt Garza) have been lucky so far. James Shields has actually been a bit unlucky. While his ERA is only 4th among the starters, he has the best FIP of the group so far. And his xFIP is even better. So while Price, Niemann and Garza have been reaping all the praise, Shields has been the Rays best starting pitcher so far.
Apr 03

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Navi And Garza, The Final Roster Spot And Beckham’s Sore Wrist

Joaquin Benoit, Mike Ekstrom, Tim Beckham 3 Comments »

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: Matt Garza. Garza was impressive facing just 1 over the minimum in the first 4 innings and finished with 5 shutout innings, with 1 hit, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts…Randy Choate. Another scoreless inning for Choate. He has not allowed an earned run in his last 5 outings.

THE BAD: Waiting. The season opens tomorrow night, but we have to wait until Tuesday night for the Rays opener.

THE TELLING: If each starting pitcher is indeed going to be paired with one of the catchers on a regular basis is was surprising to see Dioner Navarro catching Matt Garza. Garza has had most of his dominant starts with other catchers, so we would have expected to see The Garza Complex with Kelly Shoppach…Matt Joyce will be eligible to come off the DL on April 10, the 5th game of the season.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Hank Blalock on going to Durham: “The reason I would go play in Durham if no other team wants to pick me up right now is because I love baseball” [Lakeland Ledger]
  • Joaquin Benoit is yet to go back-to-back games so the final spot in the bullpen goes to Mike Ekstrom. Joe Maddon’s quotes indicate that it is just a matter of time for Benoit, who could be back with the Rays in a month or so. [The Heater]
  • Tim Beckham is nursing a sore wrist but is expected to be ready for Charlotte’s opening day. [Montgomery Advertiser]
  • Marc Topkin writes about how the final roster decisions were about helping the Rays win now. [St. Pete Times]
  • Stacy Long spoke with Jeremy Hellickson about the upcoming season. [Montgomery Advertiser]
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times previews the Rays. [New York Times]
  • There is a new member of the Rays blogosphere, Tampa Ball Talk. [Tampa Bay Talk]
Mar 31

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss The Final Bullpen Spot, Crawford’s Streak And Some More Saturday Concerts

Carl Crawford, Dale Thayer, Dioner Navarro, Evan Longoria, Heath Rollins, James Shields, Joaquin Benoit, Mike Ekstrom, Raymond 8 Comments »

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: Joaquin Benoit. The odds-on favorite for the final bullpen spot showed that his arm is healthy by working 2 innings. But unfortunately we still don’t know if he can work back-to-back games. And with a 2-inning stint yesterday, he won’t work today. There are only 3 spring games remaining after today…Reid Brignac. Brignac had 2 more hits and is now 19-52 (.365) this spring.

THE BAD: Rafael Soriano. Sure he gave up 4 runs in 1 inning. And sure he gave up a 2-run double and a 2-run HR to minor leaguers. None of that is good. But what in all likelihood really pissed off Joe Maddon was the failure to cover 3rd base on a bloop base hit in which Willy Aybar had to cover second base. That allowed both runners to move up a base and started the 4-run rally.

THE TELLING: Dioner Navarro started and caught 6 innings and should be ready for opening day…David Price threw 106 pitches and worked 6.2 scoreless innings in a minor league game giving up 1 hit and 1 walk, striking out 8…Dan Johnson accepted his outright assignment to Durham…Carl Crawford will make his 8th straight opening day start for the Rays. Only 12 other players have an active streak that long with their current team…James Shields will become the first Rays pitcher to make 3 opening day starts…The Rays will be introducing a new official hot dog in the next couple of days.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • With a week before opening day there are “a couple of thousand” tickets remaining for Opening Day according to the Rays.
  • From Rays Renegade we learn that Train and Dierks Bentley have been added to the Saturday Night Concert Series this season. Dierks Bentley is a Country artist for you Gentiles. [Twitter]
  • Dale Thayer and Heath Rollins were reassigned to minor league camp leaving Joaquin Benoit and Mike Ekstrom for the final spot in the bullpen. Of course the Rays could also look outside the organization if they are worried Benoit is not ready for the regular season. [St. Pete Times]
  • Sport Illustrated picks the Rays to win the AL Wild Card and the AL pennant, but to lose in the World Series to the Phillies…So who gets the “SI Curse,” both teams, or just the Phillies? [Rays Report]
  • Dennis Maffezzoli spoke with Carl Crawford about his future and how he will approach this season, which in all liklihoodwill be his last with the Rays. [Sarasota Herald-Tribune]
  • Jeff Fletcher of Fanhouse went through the Rays clubhouse asking what various members of the Rays know about Evan Longoria. [Fanhouse]
  • Yesterday we mentioned that BJ Upton helped recruit the GOP to the Trop. Now Rays Rev has a picture of Raymond sucking up to the GOP by wearing a suit. [Rays Rev]
  • Jonah Keri was interviewed by Fack Youk about the 2010 Rays. [Fack Youk]
  • Marc Topkin looks at the challenge Jason Bartlett faces working with a platoon at second base. [St. Pete Times]
  • Seth McClung has been released by the Marlins. [MLB Trade Rumors]
Feb 04

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss Longo’s Off-Field Power, A Pre-Owned Reliever And Freed’s Journey

Andy Freed, Evan Longoria, Mike Ekstrom 3 Comments »

Business Week ranked the “Power 100″ athletes. This list is based on achievements on the field as well as ability to promote products and services off the field. The Rays very own Evan Longoria comes in at #57…

Longoria is one of just two male athletes on the list not to bring in at least seven figures (he can thank the MLB pay scale for that), yet many consider the second-year pro to be the best at his position—topping even fellow power athletes A-Rod and David Wright. Combined with his marketable face, that should spell big bucks down the road.

In addition to Wilson gloves, Longoria recently became the coverboy for 2K Sports newest version of their popular baseball game, “MLB 2K10.” And not sure if you guys noticed, but Longoria’s shoes and batting gloves have pretty little swooshes on them. Nike commercials can’t be too far away.

#58. Not bad. Then again, #57 is Lorena Ochoa.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • The Rays claimed RHP Mike Ekstrom off waivers.  Ekstrom made 20 appearances for the Padres the past two seasons and has a 6.75 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 28.0 innings. He was a 12th round pick in 2004 by the Padres.
  • The Rays announced a deal with The Mosaic Company to rename their spring training park in Charlotte. It will now be called Mosaic Field at Charlotte Sports Park for the next 15 years.
  • The Minaret Online spoke with Andy Freed about his broadcasting career and how he ended up in the Rays radio booth. [The Manaret Online]
  • The Rays will make five appearances on Fox national broadcasts this season. [The Heater]
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