Our correspondent Jordi Scrubbings is back with another take on all things Rays….

I’ll admit, when reported attendance numbers are below 15,000 at Tropicana Field, I feel kinda guilty. I feel guilty because I think I could make a difference. It’s the same guilt I feel during an election when there is a candidate I support but I don’t bother to get out and vote. And then that candidate doesn’t win. Was it because of me? Or was it because of hundreds of other people like me who figured someone else would carry the burden of voting?

Although the worst a candidate can do is raise my taxes, approve or disapprove of transportation measures, cancel programs, stifle the economy, or generally cause the social fabric of the world around me to fall apart, for some reason I am more concerned about an empty seat at Tropicana Field that my tuckus could have sat in.

I wonder if I am the only one. Am I the only person who thinks if the team moves it would be partially my fault for not supporting them to the utmost of my ability?

I am a huge baseball fan. The fact that I am writing here is evidence enough that I am a huge Rays fan. So why aren’t I at every game contributing my +1 to the attendance total?

First and foremost, I am a partial season ticket holder. I go to Read the rest of this entry »

Back in February we put together a meta-analysis, a comprehensive ranking of the Rays top 14 prospects. With most minor league seasons well into the second-half, let’s take a look at how those prospects are performing to date…

1. David Price – The season has been more growing pains than a march to the AL Rookie of the Year award. After making 8 starts for Durham, the Rays promoted Price to the big leagues on May 25th. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but the norm has been a pitcher that struggles to throw strikes in short stints, which has led to 31 walks in 44 innings and a 4.70 ERA (6.30 tRA). All indications are that the Rays are willing to accept the struggles as Price learns to pitch while in the big leagues.
2. Tim Beckham – Beckham has spent the entire season in single-A and so far he is holding his own against the older competition. He is hitting .277/.331/.404 with 4 home runs. The red flags are the 32 errors in 82 games, the 7-15 stolen bases and the 77 t0 23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But there is plenty of time to improve all three of those aspects.
3. Wade Davis – Davis has been good this season, but he is yet to be great like most expected for a top prospect. In 19 starts, Davis is 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA (3.95 tRA). The worrisome stat is the 94 to 43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You would like to see that number closer to 3-to-1. There is still a very good chance Davis is called up later this season to fill a role in the bullpen similar to what David Price provided a year ago.
4. Reid Brignac – Brignac came up in May and played 21 games for the Rays, hitting .271/.295/.390, but started to look more comfortable in the last few games going 8-20 (.400) over his final 6 games. His season in triple-A has been decent with a respectable .809 OPS and .357 wOBA. And you have to like that he is striking out about once every two games considering that number was about once per game last season.
5. Jeremy Hellickson – Hellboy missed some time with a minor shoulder injury, but that hasn’t slowed his ascent through the minors. In 11 starts, he is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA (2.81 tRA) and he continues to pound the strikezone, striking out 62 in 56.2 innings, with only 14 walks.
6. Desmond Jennings – For the first month of the season, we finally started to see the talent that everybody has been waiting for. He has cooled a bit recently, but his numbers are still great, hitting .328/.411/.511 with 40 extra-base hits and 35-40 in stolen bases. On top of that, the Rays have started giving him more playing time in the corner outfield spots in an effort to open up more options for a move to the big leagues in late ’10 or early ’11.
7. Nick Barnese – Barnese is making single-A look easy, going 4-3 with a 2.03 ERA in 9 starts. He has 29 Ks and just 12 walks in 44.1 innings.
8. Matt Moore – Moore is also cruising through the SAL and in a more dominating manor. In 17 starts, he is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA (3.27 tRA). The most impressive number is 116 strikeouts in just 81.2 innings with 45 walks. He just turned 20, but he should be in Montgomery shortly.
9. Jake McGee – McGee made his ’09 debut Saturday night for Charlotte, giving up 3 runs in 2.2 innings. The good news is that McGee is still on schedule following Tommy John surgery and should be 100% next Spring.
10. Jeff Niemann – Niemann wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation until the Rays traded Jason Hammel prior to the season and now he is one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year. In 16 starts, he leads the Rays with 8 wins and leads the AL with 2 shutouts. You would like to see more strikeouts from the power righty, but one can’t argue with the 3.73 ERA.
11. John Jaso – He is hitting .243/.342/.354 in 71 triple-A games and continues to show excellent command of the strikezone with 35 strikeouts and 32 walks. That bodes well for his future as a big league hitter. He may never be great, but he should be serviceable and will not be overmatched.
12. Fernando Perez – Perez broke his wrist in spring training and has yet to make his ’09 debut. He recently participated in a simulated game but no timetable has been put forth for his return.
13. Mitch Talbot – Talbot is quickly losing ground amongst the Rays starting pitchers. This season, in 10 starts, he is 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA.
14. Jake Jefferies – The development of a catcher is usually a slow process and one that is very difficult to gauge in the boxscores and statlines. In 80 games, he is hitting .269/.341/.371.

In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

Presenting the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects Meta-Analysis.

Baseball Prospectus has released their list of Top 100 prospects. We are still waiting for their list of Top 11 prospects for the Rays, but five of those players are in the top 100, so we can get a head start.

Notes on how the rankings were constructed are found at the bottom of this post. Notes on the final rankings can be found after the table…

A few notes on the final rankings… Read the rest of this entry »

In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

Presenting the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects Meta-Analysis.

Baseball Prospectus has released their list of Top 100 prospects. We are still waiting for their list of Top 11 prospects for the Rays, but five of those players are in the top 100, so we can get a head start.

Notes on how the rankings were constructed are found at the bottom of this post. Notes on the final rankings can be found after the table…

A few notes on the final rankings…

Read the rest of this entry »

Last January we performed a meta-analysis of the Rays’ top prospects, in which we built a composite ranking of the top 14 players in the system based on eight different rankings and our own “Trade Value Index“. Let’s take a look back at the list and see how each of those players performed in 2008 and gauge whether or not they are living up to the hype.

1. Evan Longoria (avg. rank: 1.1) It seems like years ago, but Dirtbag was demoted back to triple-A after spring training. But after 10 games, he was back and the Rays never looked back. Despite missing time late in the season with a broken bone in his wrist, Longoria hit .272/.343/.531 with 27 home runs and a 125 OPS+. Add to that 7-7 on stolen base attempts and gold glove-caliber defense and Longoria should be a run-away AL Rookie of the Year…AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

2. David Price (avg. rank: 2.2) Not a bad year for King David who made his professional debut at single-A in late May. Five months later Price recorded the final 4 outs of game 7 of the ALCS to beat the Boston Red Sox and advance the Rays to the World Series. In 29 combined appearances (20 starts) between the minors, the majors and the postseason, Price was 13-1 with a 2.23 ERA. He posted 129 strikeouts in 129.1 innings, to go along with an impressive 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio…WILL BE TOP PROSPECT IN BASEBALL IN ’09

3. Jake McGee (avg. rank: 3.3) As impressive as Price was, McGee was equally disappointing. In June, McGee was lost for the season with a torn ligament in his elbow. Even before the injury, it was clear that McGee was not his usual dominating self. Prior to this season, McGee averaged 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. This season, that number was down to 7.5 at double-A. If he can come back successfully from surgery, Joe Maddon recently indicated that he could see McGee as a power lefty in the bullpen…WILL BE OFF THIS LIST IN ’09

4. Wade Davis (avg. rank: 3.8) Davis is just 1 of 8 starting pitchers in the organization that could start in the majors in ’09. Like McGee, Davis struggled early in the season at double-A. Prior to this season, Davis struck out 9.4 batters per 9 innings and posted a 3.0 strikeout to walk ratio. In 19 double-A starts, Davis posted a respectable 3.85 ERA, but his strikeouts per 9 innings was down to 6.8 and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was down to 1.9. After the double-A all star game, Davis was promoted to triple-A and his numbers rebounded back to his norm. In 9 starts with Durham, Davis struck out 55 in 53 innings (9.3 per 9 innings) and his ratio was back to 2.3. Davis is ready for the majors, but he will have to wait…TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

5. Reid Brignac (avg. rank: 5.3) Two things happened on the way to the majors for Brignac. His glove proved major league caliber, and his bat did not. With the glove, Brignac committed only 12 errors after averaging 28 per season that previous 3 years. He was named the top defensive shortstop of the IL by Baseball America. With the bat, Brignac posted a .250/.299/.412 line. He is still getting an extra-base hit about once every 10 at bats, which is in line with previous seasons, but the 25 walks have to be viewed as a disappointment. He also missed the final two months with a broken bone in his wrist. He did make his major league debut this season, going 0-10 with 5 strikeouts and a walk…PROSPECT STATUS IS SLIPPING

6. Desmond Jennings (avg. rank: 6.9) Another year, another season cut short by injury. This time it was only 24 games before Jennings went down with a shoulder injury. In 2009 Jennings will be 22 years old, have zero experience above single-A and only 685 at bats above high school. The talent is there (.866 OPS in ’07 at Columbus), but he needs to show that he can stay healthy for an entire season before we even consider him major league caliber...DISAPPOINTMENT SO FAR

7. Jeff Niemann (avg. rank: 6.9) Niemann made his major league debut for the Rays with one good start and one not-so-good start back in April. In triple-A, Niemann made 24 starts going 9-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a respectable 2.6 strike out to walk ratio. He did seem to get stronger as the season went along. Of course, the good news is that 2008 marked his second consecutive (relatively) healthy season. Niemann will be out of minor league options in 2009 so he will either be in the Rays’ bullpen or in the Royals’ (or another team’s) rotation…COULD BE A SOLID #4/5 STARTER WITH A LONG CAREER

8. Jeremy Hellickson (avg. rank: 8.2) We have always said that we are hesitant to get excited about a prospect until he does something above single-A. After a solid 2008, Hellickson is very much on everybody’s radar and he could give the Rays 3 starting pitchers in the top 20 prospects in baseball. Between single-A and double-A, Hellboy made 27 starts, going 11-5 with a 2.96 ERA and a ridiculous 8.1 strikeout to walk ratio. We also saw how much Hellickson is now valued in baseball as many teams at the trade deadline insisted on his inclusion in any deal with the Rays making it very clear that he would not be dealt. He should be #3 on the Rays’ list next season…TOP 20 PROSPECT IN BASEBALL

9. Eddie Morlan (avg. rank: 9.4) The best relief pitcher prospect in the system, Morlan posted a solid 3.0 strike out to walk ratio to go with 45 Ks in 47 innings. Morlan was selected to participate in the Futures Game during the All-Star break…COULD MOVE UP A SPOT OR TWO IN 2009

10. Ryan Royster (avg. rank: 11.1) Royster was a big disappointment in 2008. One year after hitting .329-30-98 with a .981 OPS at Columbus, Royster regressed to .265-9-58 with a .691 OPS at Vero Beach. Royster will need to prove that 2007 was not a fluke or he will soon become an afterthought…NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

11. Chris Mason (avg. rank: 11.1) As disappointing as Royster was with the bat, Mason was equally disappointing on the mound. After winning 15 games with a 2.57 ERA in 2007 at Montgomery, Mason’s ERA skyrocketed to 6.21. He was eventually demoted to the bullpen. Without a dominating fastball, Mason relies on control and that escaped him this season. After averaging 2.6 walks per 9 innings prior to this season, Mason walked 3.4 per 9 inning this season and the pitches in the strikezone were very hittable. Like Royster, Mason needs to prove that 2008 was the exception and not the rule…NOT LIKELY TO BE ON LIST IN 2009

12. John Jaso (avg. rank: 11.4) Jaso’s defense has improved considerably, but there is still improvement needed before he is considered a legitimate major league catching prospect. On the other hand, there is little doubt about his bat. For the fifth straight season, Jaso posted an OPS of greater than .800 and boasts a career minor league OBP of .381 (.386 in 2008). 2009 will be a big season for Jaso. If he can show continued progress behind the plate, he could become one of the top catching prospects in baseball…WILL BE IN RAYS TOP 10 IN 2009

13. Fernando Perez (avg. rank: 12.6) He still strikes out way too much (156 in 129 triple-A games) but his athleticism and speed cannot be ignored. He clearly left an impression on Joe Maddon during a September call-up. With a possible opening in right field for 2009, Perez will certainly receive consideration for that position. But we suspect that Perez is being groomed to replace Carl Crawford in left field. If Crawford is traded this off-season, the Rays would save nearly $8 million on the payroll, and only take a small step backwards in talent…COULD BE EVERYDAY MAJOR LEAGUER IN 2009

14. James Houser (avg. rank: 14.1) It is not easy to go 3-3 in 20 starts (double-A) but Houser’s 2.86 ERA indicate the lack of wins was not his fault. The 76 to 40 strikeout to walk ratio needs improvement (94.1 innings) but the 69 hits allowed was very impressive. A big lefty (6’5″), Houser still needs to add meat to his bones (185 lbs). Once he does, he could step up as one of the top prospects in the system. In the meantime, Houser’s future in the big leagues could be as a relief pitcher…SLOWLY CLIMBING THE BOARD

A Meta-Analysis Of Top Tampa Bay Rays Prospects [Rays Index]

Tampa Bay Rays (30 days until pitchers and catchers report)

Just the links today.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We have updated our Meta-Analysis of Top Prospects to now include the “Cursory Top Prospect Post” from Rays of Light. Their post is worth a read if just to read the reasoning for making the list at the beginning of the post. They have summed up our feelings about these lists perfectly and is exactly why we did not make a list of our own and instead created the Meta-Analysis. [Rays of Light]
• The Heater is reporting that Carlos Pena is still awaiting word on the progress of negotiations for a new deal. If a deal is not reached by Friday the Rays will cease negotiating and will let an arbitrator decide Pena’s 2008 salary. While we expect a 1-year deal to be reached with Scott Kazmir prior to Friday’s deadline, we would be surprised if the Rays can reach a deal with Pena, who is represented by Scott Boras. The team also continues to negotiate with Dan Wheeler and Jonny Gomes [TampaBay.com]
• St. Pete officials submitted a request for proposals to the St. Pete City Council. The request lays out what the officials envision for the renovation of Tropicana Field and lays out exactly what they are seeking in developers that would like to head the renovation. [TampaBay.com]
• Bucs Dugout has a post comparing the current Pirate’s situation to the 2006 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The post is an excellent review of the moves that Andrew Friedman and Co. have made since taking control of the team and how the Rays went from a laughing stock to being on the verge of greatness mediocrity. [Bucs Dugout]
• Joe Henderson tries to convince his readers that the Rays are on the cusp of being a competitive team. [TBO]

Best-case scenario: If things break right, the Rays could challenge Toronto for third place in the American League East. That won’t trigger many champagne showers, but after what we’ve seen here for years, it’ll do for now.

The defense up the middle should be vastly improved. Moving Akinori Iwamura to second base fills one of those spots with a potential gold glove. Shortstop Jason Bartlett, acquired in the Delmon Young trade, will get to balls that would have scooted well past Brendan Harris last season.

• The Rays have hired a firm to study the impact the proposed Rays stadium will have on local parking. [DevilRays.com]

Over the next several months, RK&K will work with the City of St. Petersburg, its residents and the Rays to analyze the relationship between existing parking locations and ballpark entry and exit routes, forecast downtown traffic volumes during event conditions, and engage the community to determine specific areas of concern. RK&K will recommend methods to ensure that adequate parking will be available for both the ballpark and its downtown environs. RR&K will also help create an effective traffic management plan to minimize congestion and provide ease of entry and exit to the ballpark.

Tampa Bay Rays (35 days until pitchers and catchers report)
[Update 1/15/08: We have added the Top 13 prospect list from Rays of Light.]

[Update 1/14/08: We have added Stacy Long's list of Top 30 prospects to the Meta-Analysis. Long's list is clearly needed in this meta-analysis as he has seen most of these players play on a first-hand basis while covering the Montgomery Biscuits.]

[Ed. Note: We have updated the list to include the rankings posted by the highly respected John Sickels at Minor League Ball. His list was just posted this morning. There was little change in the overall rankings]

Yesterday Baseball America unveiled their list of Top 10 Prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays. No big surprises. You can find the full write-up HERE along with their list of the Top Tools in the organization.

BA is the 5th website (that we are aware of) that has released a rankings list for Rays prospects. We decided to do a meta-analysis and compare the results from several websites. In the science community, a meta-analysis is what we do when we don’t want to do any work ourselves and instead want to take the work of a bunch of other people, tease the data a little, draw some conclusions that nobody had noticed before, and then pawn it off as our own.

A few notes on the Meta-Analysis..

1. We included rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball, DRays Bay, Rays Digest, Riverwalk Talk, and Rays Anatomy.
2. When calculating the averages, we gave Baseball America a weight of 2. This is simply because, analyzing minor leaguers is what they do for a living. They are the experts and in many cases they have actually seen these prospects play and have been following them for several years. Not to mention their offices are in Durham.
3. If a player was excluded from a list, we gave that player a ranking of 2 spots lower than the lowest ranked player in the list for the purpose of calculating the final average.
4. The final list includes the 14 players that appeared in the Top 10 of at least one list.
5. We included our own Trade Value Index, which can be found in the side-panel. Our list differs from the others in that we incorporate more to our rankings than just how good of a major leaguer the player will be. Our rankings are based on “value” to the organization. For example, it is our thought that Wade Davis has the better chance of being a top major league starting pitcher, but we give Jake McGee a higher “value” because he is left-handed and a power lefty with a plus-breaking ball is a very rare commodity.
6. Notes on the individual rankings follow the Meta-Analysis.

• The top 5 are clear-cut with only subtle disagreements on the exact order. The only outliers are Desmond Jennings whom BP slots at #4 and our own TVI list which includes Jeff Niemann at #5 a spot ahead of Reid Brignac. The thinking is that Niemann is a pitcher, he is closer to the big leagues and while Brignac is still an elite prospect, he did raise at least a few doubts in 2007. If Niemann fails to make the opening day roster, he will begin to fall down the TVI…very fast.
• When it comes to strict major league projections, #8-15 are interchangeable in our eyes and while the names are fairly consistent across the lists, the actual order varies greatly.
• In our eyes, the top 7 are can’t-miss prospects. Not necessarily all-stars, but all seven should be contributing major leaguers. We would also add Eduardo Morlan to that list.
• We are not sold on Desmond Jennings. But, with the trade of Delmon Young and the injury struggles of Rocco Baldelli, Jennings and Fernando Perez will ultimately compete to be the third outfielder in 2009 or 2010.
• We are also not yet ready to anoint Jeremy Hellickson as a legit major league prospect. For a right-hander he is not very big and he is not over-powering, which translates very well at Low-A Columbus. He will get his first big test in 2008 at the hitter-friendly Vero Beach. Until he shows us he can compete at the AA-level, we will remain skeptical. We rank Chris Mason higher. Mason was a college pitcher, so he is more polished and while he is also a not very big, not very overpowering right hander, he has proven it at the AA-level. Still we are skeptical that he will be a very good major leaguer.
• BP and our own TVI give Eduardo Morlan his highest ranking of #7. Just look at the free agent market for relief pitchers this off-season and you will see that teams are starting to dish out big bucks for all relief pitchers, not just closers. For all the pitching depth spoken of in the Rays system, very little of it is relief pitchers. While starting pitchers that miss the cut will get a shot at the ‘pen, it is never guaranteed to be a successful transition. That gives Morlan a decided edge over others for an organization that is desperate for young talented relief pitchers.

RAYS PROSPECTS WEBTOPIA…

• Rays Digest breaks down the Tampa Bay Rays farm system. [Rays Digest]
• Future Considerations breaks down BA’s prospect list. FC is in the midst of revealing their Top 30 prospects but have yet to unveil their Top 10 so we could not include their rankings in our meta-analysis. We should note that earlier this week FC took their own stab at predicting the “Best Tools” categories and we questioned whether Evan Longoria would be named both “Best Power Hitter” and “Best Hitter for Average”. We thought it might be John Jaso. FC nailed it, as Longoria was named in both categories. *Tip o’ the cap* [Future Considerations]

Top 10 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays [Baseball America]
Baseball America Names Rays Top 10, I Was Nearly Right… [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Prospect Preview [Rays Digest]
Rays Top 11 Prospects [Baseball Prospectus]
Baseball America’s Top Ten Rays Prospects [DRays Bay]
Top Rays Prospects [Stacy Long's Riverwalk Talk]