Feb 08
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
Danny Clyburn, an outfielder that played 28 games for the Devil Rays back in 1999 was shot and killed during an argument in South Carolina.
Clyburn hit .198 with three home runs with the Devil Rays. He never played in the majors again following that season.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Matt Moore is number 2 on the LA Times’ top 100 prospects list. [LA Times]
- The Mariners are the latest team prepping for a huge financial windfall from their next TV deal. [Seattle Mariners]
- Bulls Illustrated is everything you need to know about (buying tickets to see) the Durham Bulls. [Bulls Illustrated]
Feb 02
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.
To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.
Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the above charts…
- James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
- Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
- Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
- Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
- Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
- Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.
Jan 26
Matt Moore is the top prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. And overall, the Rays are well-represented on the first top prospects list of the year, with six players total.
Joining Moore on the list are Hak-Ju Lee (46), Chris Archer (74), Tim Beckham (92), Mike Mahtook (96) Taylor Guerrieri (99). Lee and Archer came over to the Rays organization via the Matt Garza deal. Tim Beckham was the number one overall pick of the 2008 draft. And Mahtook and Guerrieri were drafted by the Rays this past season.
While it is nice to see six players on the list, it also shows that with the promotions of Jeremy Hellickson (#2 in 2011) and Desmond Jennings (#11 in 2011), Moore is now the only big-time prospect in the system. Last year, the Rays had four players in the top 50. In addition to Hellboy and Jennings, Moore was #27, and Archer was #47.
Jan 24
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
We are back from our little mini-vacation and find that John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranks the Rays farm system as just the seventh-best in baseball...
Impact depth behind Matt Moore has slipped but this is still a robust organization.
Although, we would point out that Moore is pretty damn good. And depending on who you talk to, is probably the best prospect in baseball.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- The Tigers are interested in Johnny Damon. [MLBTR]
- But according to Joel Sherman, Johnny Damon “badly” wants to sign with the Yankees. Of course, Damon had zero interest in the Yankees two weeks ago when he thought he still had a shot with the Rays. [@Joelsherman1]
- The A’s are “very interested” in signing Manny Ramirez. But it is unclear if that interest has changed with the A’s signing another former Rays player, Johnny Gomes. [MLBTR]
- Joe Maddon donated Read the rest of this entry »
Jan 10
One of the biggest concerns with young starting pitchers is their workload and easing them into a 200-ip season. The Rays typically prefer to limit their starters to a 20 percent increase in innings from one season to the next. If a pitcher exceeds that mark, they could be at a higher risk for injury or just a tired arm in the next season.
Last year, we saw the red flag with David Price, whose 221.1 innings pitches in 2010 was a 36.1 percent increase over the 2009 season. And while Price’s FIP improved from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2011, his ERA ballooned from 2.72 in 2010 to 3.49 last year. Was he just unlucky? Maybe. But Price also showed that at times last year, he tired late in games.
So let’s take a look at how much the pitcher’s were used in 2011 and if there are any red flags…
Maybe the most important thing we see in this table is that the Rays big-6 starting pitchers (David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore) are all free to throw Read the rest of this entry »
Jan 02
If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do based on what we have learned. Think of RI as “Tampa Bay Rays 101.”
However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans. Looking back at last year’s 12 Days of Raysmas, we see that many of our wishes came true. Many did not. If we can get a couple of more this year, the Rays might just win it all.
Without further ado…
On the ninth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, NINE STARTS FOR MATT MOORE BEFORE THE ALL-STAR BREAK…
This one is simple. The Rays have at least eight Big League starting pitchers. So if the Rays want Matt Moore to work on a couple of things and ease him into the rotation, that’s cool. But if the Rays are serious about fielding the best possible 25-man roster in 2012, then Moore needs to be in the majors sooner, rather than later.
Typically, a team will go through the rotation 17-18 times in the Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 21
Baseball America has released their annual list of the top 10 prospects in the Rays’ organization. And while the top player is no surprise, there are a few names in places we did not expect…
- Matt Moore, LHP
- Hak-Ju Lee, SS
- Chris Archer, RHP
- Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
- Alex Colome, RHP
- Alex Torres, LHP
- Tim Beckham, SS
- Enny Romero, LHP
- Drew Vettleson, OF
- Mikie Mahtook, OF
A few notes on the list…
- With Jeremy Hellickson no longer eligible, Matt Moore jumps from #2 to #1.
- Also coming off the list due to no longer being eligible are Desmond Jennings (#3 last year), Jake McGee (#4),
- Josh Sale (#5 last year), Justin O’Connor (#8), and Jake Thompson (#10) all fell out of the top ten after a rough 2011 season.
- Six players are new to the list this year, including Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 16
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
The Rays have announced that Neil Solondz, a broadcaster for the Durham Bulls, will be the new pre- and post-game radio voice for the Rays. Solondz is replacing Rich Herrera, who was a polarizing voice that most people seemed to either love or hate.
We haven’t heard too much of Solondz’ work. But based on the reactions we are hearing from Bulls fans, it sounds like a good move for the Rays.
This quote from one Bulls fan seems to sum up the reaction from Durham (via @RTPGiants)…
Nooooooooo….great for Neil; potentially terrible for Bulls fans. Neil is 5000% better than other MILB announcer
You can see a video below of Solondz interviewing Rays prospect Chris Archer.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Ken Rosenthal: James Shields “appears out of reach” for the Reds “and every other club.” Rosenthal also notes that the Reds “ideally want better” than Wade Davis. [@Ken_Rosenthal]
- Matt Moore was recently on “Happy Hour with JP Peterson” to discuss his new contract. Our favorite quote: “I’d love for this to be a bad deal for me.” [TampaBaySportsCentral]
- Andrew Friedman says Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 09
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com is reporting that the Rays have signed Matt Moore to a long-term extension. The deal is said to be worth a guaranteed $14 million over five years.
However, in typical Rays fashion, the deal also includes three option years that would bring the value of the deal up to $37.5 million. There are also bonuses built in to the deal that would make it worth $40 million.
Marc Topkin of TampaBay.com is reporting that the exact value, including options is $39.75 million.
This deal is almost identical to the contract Evan Longoria signed shortly after his big league debut. Longoria’s contract was guaranteed for six years, and including options is worth $44.5 million over nine years.
Dec 06
At the opening of the 2011 Winter Meetings, Joe Maddon met with the media and answered a number of questions. You can read the full transcript HERE. But if you want the Cliffs Notes version, you will find it below…
On who will play shortstop…
It’s an open competition is what it is [between Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac]. I thought Sean did really well at the end of last year. Sean probably exceeded our expectations what he’s going to be able to do defensively. Even as offense I think there’s a lot of room for improvement there, too. But Sean is a wonderful baseball player and that’s why we love to have him on the field. Reid one of the better young defenders, I think, at shortstop in the game. Obviously did not have the offensive year that we were looking for, so he needs to really pick up there. Again, talking to both of them, they’re both aware that they’ll be battling it out for that job in Spring Training.
On the bullpen…
You’ve got Kyle [Farnsworth] and Joel [Peralta] and then [Jake McGee and Brandon Gomes], I don’t know exactly where J.P. Read the rest of this entry »
