Yesterday we presented our updated Trade Value Index (TVI). With a little over a week until next Thursday’s trade deadline, rather than take a look at the players the Rays may target we will take a look at the players most likely to be sent packing should Andrew Friedman and Co. decide to pull the trigger on a deal.

Gerry Hunsicker, Rays’ Senior VP for baseball operations and Friedman’s guru, has made two of the best deadline deals in recent memory. In 2004, Hunsicker landed Carlos Beltran and 6 years earlier he traded for Randy Johnson. While the Astros failed to reach the World Series in either year, both Beltran and Johnson were key figures in Houston’s playoff runs.

On the other hand Friedman sounds more like a guy that is willing to sit on the talent in place.

Keep in mind all of the “rumors” in the media recently are 99% speculation. They have a simple formula and the Rays always fit the formula. The media looks at a player and picks the teams still in contention that would view that player as an improvement. Then they decide which teams have the stronger farm system. The Rays will almost always satisfy both criteria.

The problem is the Rays are not like most ball clubs and are in the process of redefining success for small-market clubs. We feel that the Rays are more likely to follow the blueprint of the Angels who rarely make in-season deals and prefer to hold on to their homegrown talent.

That being said, there is still a chance the Rays will swing a deal for a mid-level player such as a middle reliever to add depth to a staff that has suffered a number of injuries. There is also a need for a right-handed hitting outfielder as the Rays have struggled against lefties this season and possibly a utility infielder that is an upgrade over Ben Zobrist and can serve as a backup shortstop.

So if a trade is made, which players are most likely to be used as bait…

Jason Hammel 3:2
Any deals involving pitchers will almost certainly involve Hammel to open a spot in either the bullpen or the rotation (with either Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine moving to the bullpen). Hammel can still bring the heat with a mid-90s fastball, but do any teams still think he can be a starter?

Jeff Niemann 2:1
While other teams will certainly ask for David Price, Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson, Niemann is the piece of value that the Rays would prefer to trade. While certainly Niemann’s star shines less brightly these days, he is still young, and very big and he has a lot of upside.

Jonny Gomes 3:1
Like Hammel, any deal for a right-handed hitting outfielder will almost certainly involve Gomes going in the other direction. Nobody doubts Gomes’ power or his intensity, and if given regular playing time, he could be a solid DH or outfielder for another team.

Fernando Perez 7:2
Perez has loads of talent but he still struggles with strikeouts. The Rays have no room in center with BJ Upton but could Perez play right field in ’09 and be the Rays leadoff hitter? Or is he expendable? Like Niemann, Perez is one player we can see the Rays using as trade-bait.

Ben Zobrist 5:1
Whether as a utility infielder or a starting shortstop, Benny Boo Boo has proven that he can be a major leaguer. He will never be an all-star, but there are plenty of teams out there with worse options plaing short or second.

Mitch Talbot 5:1
Talbot would not be the key player in a trade, but he could be the arm that puts a deal over the top. He is a bit of a tweener. He has shown flashes of brilliance, like his performance in ’06 SL playoffs, but he has been very up-and-down since moving to Durham. There is some upside and there does not seem to be a future for him with the Rays.

Dale Thayer 7:1
Thayer who seemed destined to be a career minor leaguer, has blossomed this season in Durham with a 1.43 ERA and 57Ks in 50.1 innings with only 17 walks. With Jeff Niemann and Juan Salas also in Durham as bullpen insurance, Thayer is certainly expendable. He is also Rule 5 eligible this winter, so now may be a good time to move him.

Eric Hinske 7:1
Hinske is a free agent at the end of the year, and with Gabe Gross and a healthy Cliff Floyd, Hinske is certainly expendable. But he has also been one of the Rays better hitters this season. Would the Rays risk moving an offensive contributor with the offense struggling a bit?

Juan Salas 8:1
If the Rays don’t trade for a relief pitcher, Salas is probably the next guy up from Durham when somebody is needed. He has pitched well for Durham, with a 2.12 ERA and 38Ks in 34 innings with only 8 walks. Might somebody be enticed by the comparisons of Salas’ cutter to Mariano Rivera’s?

James Houser 8:1
Like Jeff Niemann, Houser is another name that the Rays will counter with when teams ask for one of the big pitching prospects. He is a tall lefty with some upside. Could be more tempting than a Mitch Talbot.

Justin Ruggiano 8:1
Ruggiano is similar to Mitch Talbot in that he is a bit of tweener. He posts good numbers in triple-A and could be serviceable as a 4th outfielder in the major leagues, but does he have a future with the Rays? Again, would not be the key player in a trade, but he could be the bat that puts a deal over the top.

Joel Guzman 10:1
Won’t be 24 until November, and while he has a ton of power and a very good glove with plenty of positional flexibility, he still strikes out way too much (88 in 355 ABs this year) and his OBP is embarassing (.271). He will also be out of options in ’09, so a move now or this winter may be necessary. Might somebody else be tempted by the talent?

Shawn Riggans 10:1
To us, this is the most intriguing name on the list. Riggans can hit. He still has plenty of room for improvement behind the plate and he is not that young (even for a catcher; 28 in a few days). The Rays also have Mike DiFeLice in Durham. DiFelice will be on the team in September no matter what happens, but would Maddon prefer DiFelice on a potential playoff roster? There is also John Jaso who was recently promoted to Durham and could make Riggans even more expendable.

Reid Brignac 10:1
Have the Rays soured a bit on Brignac? We can’t see Brignac being traded, especially until Tim Beckham shows that he is a major leaguer-in-waiting. And there is also that open right field slot in ’09. Could the Rays give Brignac a shot at RF in spring training? Still, no matter what the plans are, teams will ask for Brignac. Will the Rays bite?

Dan Johnson 12:1
Having a huge season since being demoted to Durham. Unfortunately, he has shown little or no power in the majors and has very little positional flexibility for a guy that is better suited for a bench role. Still, he has big league experience which a NL contender might value.

Al Reyes 15:1
A free agent at the end of the year, but has been struggling with injuries which make him more valuable to the Rays than to any suitor.

Chris Mason 15:1
Would anybody want him?

Gary Glover 20:1
Ditto

Grant Balfour 50:1
Another name that is very intriguing to us. If there is any inkling in the Rays front office that this recent run by Balfour is a fluke, then now is the time to trade the power righty and sell high. But everything we have seen indicates that Balfour is the real-deal and maybe he just needed to find some confidence which he has plenty of right now.

THE GOOD: Carlos Pena’s solo home run with 1 out in the bottom of the 9th inning to tie the game. Could this be the moment that gets El Gato back on track? Prior to that at bat, Pena had left 2 runners on in the 1st inning, 3 in the 2nd, 1 runner in the 4th and 2 more in the 6th.

THE BAD: Evan Longoria and Dan Wheeler in the 10th inning. You absolutely cannot lose that game. You are at home, going for a sweep against an inferior ball club and Carlos Pena had just bailed you out in the bottom of the 9th. You have to shut the Royals down in the 10th and give your team a shot to win. Longoria put Wheeler in a jam right off the bat with a throwing error that left the leadoff runner on 2nd and Wheeler gave up a 3-run home run to a guy who only had 3 coming into the game. This is one of those games that if the Rays miss the playoffs by a game or 2, we will look back and cringe.

THE TELLING: In order to give BJ Upton a day off, Joe Maddon penciled Carl Crawford into center field and CC was not happy about it…Reid Brignac did not play and is 0-4 with a walk and 3 strikeouts in his brief major league career…Remember that “reasonable goal” of a .500 season (81 wins)? The Rays need to go 27-47 over the remainder of the season in order to surpass that mark…Even though Boston has a 1.5 game lead in the Wild Card, the Rays magic number over the second place Twins is also 69 (for a playoff spot) as both the Twinkies and Red Sox have the same number of losses.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• We are back, if ever so briefly. On Thursday Mrs. Prof (no longer just figuratively) and I will be on our way to the Islands for a week. There will be updates while we are gone, although we are still working on the exact details. More to come in the next day or two.
• The Rays have a 77.8% chance of making the playoffs this season. [The Heater]
• Al Reyes threw a simluated game and says he is ready to come off the DL. [Herald-Tribune]
• Dioner Navarro and Scott Kazmir were named to the AL All-Star squad and Dan Shanoff says the Rays got screwed by politics. [The Sporting News]
• Evan Longoria still has a shot to be named to the final spot on the AL roster, and is currently leading the voting. [The Heater]
• John Romano says that Joe Maddon should have been named an all-star coach. [St. Pete Times]
• Marc Lancaster says the Rays are more likely to make a small move before the trade deadline, rather than go after some of the big names that are being tossed around right now…We agree. As we have stated before, our prediction is Eric Hinske for a utility infielder that is an upgrade over Ben Zobrist and possibly a relief pitcher to add to the bullpen depth. [Tampa Tribune]
• The Rays appear to have interest in Brian Fuentes. Of course the Rockies want Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. That doesn’t mean they will get one of those top pitching prospects. [The Heater]
• Bill Madden says that with the Rays on top of the AL East, the Yankees and Red Sox lack the “spark” from years past. [NY Daily News]
• The New York Daily News says the Rays are the new “beasts of the AL East.” [NY Daily News]
• Richard Justice says that the Rays could be even better in the second half…While there is definitely room for improvement, it will be difficult to keep up this torrid pace of wins especially with more games on the road in the second half. [Yahoo! Sports]
• Now that the Rays are on the lips of media outlets everywhere some are offended that the Rays are often referred to as the “Tampa Rays”. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rays surpassed 1 million in attendance in their 48th game this season. That is second fastest in franchise history, out-paced only by the inaugural season. [Tampa Tribune]
• A writer for the Aspen Times says the Rays are “not yet” this year’s Rockies (upstart World Series participant)…He is right. While the Rays may not make it to the World Series, this Rays squad is much better than the Rockies squad that got hot late and ran through a weak NL playoff field. [Aspen Times]
• Marc Topkin lays out 5 keys to the Rays playoff hopes. [St. Pete Times]
• Former Rays prospect Wes Bankston hit his first major league home run for the A’s. [MLB]
• Former Rays GM Chuck LaMar would like to take credit for the Rays success. We don’t have the energy to give this it’s proper beatdown. [The Heater]

Jeff Moore thinks the San Diego Padres should trade Brian Giles to a team that needs a right fielder and a leadoff hitter. Jeff Moore thinks that the Tampa Bay Rays make a perfect trade partner.

Now 37, Giles is no longer a power threat, but he has emerged as an excellent leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, he is still paid like a power hitter, with his 2008 salary sitting at $9 million, and another $3 million required to buy him out after the season to avoid another $9M for 2009…The Rays’ current right-field situation consists primarily of the recently acquired Gabe Gross (2008 OPS of .688), Eric Hinske and Johnny Gomes (who should be a DH) [RI-Gomes has only started 3 games in RF in '08]. Their leadoff hitter in all but two games this season has been second baseman Akinori Iwamura (2008 OBP of .339). The Rays could use help in both spots.

Interesting. you got our attention. Now what does Mr. Moore think the Rays should give up for Giles?

Rays get: Brian Giles. His 2008 buyout paid by Padres if activated by the Rays ($3 million).

Padres get: Jeff Niemann, Eric Hinske and Desmond Jennings.

This is the kind of crap that is generated when somebody knows very little about the team he is writing about.

Would the Rays trade for a player and add payroll if they thought it would improve the club and help in a playoff push? YES.

Are they going to add $6 million in prorated salary for a player (Eric Hinske) that actually has a lower OPS (.831) than Eric Hinske (.847) this season (not to mention Hinske is only being paid $800K this season)? NO

Are they also going to mortgage part of the future by trading TWO Top-100 prospects (Jeff Niemann and Desmond Jennings) for a player that is a free agent at the end of the season? NO

Giles is an interesting player. The Rays might actually be a better team with him at the top of the order. But this is the type of move that other teams make and then regret 96.4% of the time. Andrew Friedman and Co. have gotten the Rays to their current position by NOT making silly desperation moves like this. Just because the Rays are suddenly one of the better teams in baseball, does not mean they are going to deviate from the plan that got them there.

Padres Giles could cure what ails Rays [Fox Sports]

Marc Lancaster. You picked the wrong day to try and unload this garbage on us.

Willy Aybar is set to come off the DL in the next day or two. Aybar is being prepped on his rehab assignment to be a utility player upon his return, receiving playing time at first base, second base and third base.

As we have mentioned on this site, this will create quite a problem for Andrew Friedman, as he must decide who Aybar will replace on the roster. The only two bench players with options are Ben Zobrist and Shawn Riggans. As the backup shortstop and catcher, on the surface, it appears both will be staying put. On the other hand, the Rays have four players playing right field and DH. Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes are safe as the starting DHs.

That leaves either Gabe Gross or Eric Hinske as the odd-man out. Gross is the better defensive option while Hinske provides more offense and a bit of position flexibility (can play third, first). Without minor league options, if one of those players is moved, they would have to be traded or placed on waivers.

Lancaster provides two scenarios that would allow the Rays to keep everybody.

1. Send Zobrist to the minors and let Evan Longoria serve as the backup shortstop.
2. Drop a relief pitcher and keep an 11-man pitching staff.

Do these scenarios sound familiar? They should if you read the comments section on any Rays blog.

The problem with Lancaster’s presentation is that he presents the first scenario as if the move is a real possibility. He even seems to be hinting that the team is considering this option.

Sorting through the possibilities, an interesting scenario is beginning to emerge as an avenue to clear space for Aybar.

Where exactly is this emerging from? Lancaster’s mind? The thoughts of commenters on this or another site? Because it sure isn’t emerging from the team.

On Tuesday, Longoria said the Rays haven’t asked him about playing shortstop in a pinch, but he said he thinks he could handle the job.

So. Because Lancaster brought it up to Longoria, and he said he could handle it, then it is “emerging as an avenue”? In fact, Longoria admits that it would take “some work”. Not exactly the sort of thing that is easy to work on in the regular season, when he has not played the position since college.

Marc Lancaster: Evan, you took Spanish in college right? Well, the Rays get tour groups from Spanish speaking countries all the time. Do you think you could handle showing them around if the regular tour guide ever calls in sick?
Evan Longoria: I guess I could probably handle it, but I would need to spend some time brushing up on my Spanish.
Marc Lancaster: *typing on typewriter* An interesting scenario is beginning to emerge as an avenue to help the Rays out if their Spanish speaking tour guide ever calls in sick.

Shortstop is the most demanding position on the field. You can’t throw a guy out there cold-turkey. Yes, Dirtbag is a great defensive player. And yes he has played there before. This just in: Almost every player on the team has played shortstop at some point in the past. Alex Rodriguez was a gold glove shortstop. Yet, whenever Derek Jeter is injured, A-Rod does not shift over and play short. Why change two positions when the manager only has to change one?

Maddon loves positional flexibility. With only four guys on the bench, it is a necessity. Right now, he has 4 guys playing two positions. Keeping Hinske and Gross makes the team less flexible. Not more.

And what does Joe Maddon think of the possibility of going with an 11-man pitching staff?

the moment you think you can, you can’t.

Let us translate that for Mr. Lancaster: “No. Nope. Not going to happen. Don’t even bring it up.” And yet, Lancaster still brings it up as a possibility.

Marc Lancaster: Joe, Percy has pitched the last 3 days and Wheeler went 2 innings yesterday. With only 5.5 relievers (Miller only gets credit for 0.5), it seems like the bullpen is pretty thin. Have you thought about just letting Kazmir go all 9 innings tonight. That’s what they did in the old days.
Joe Maddon: *punches Lancaster in the nose*

Yes. As recently as 3-4 years ago, some teams were still using 11-man pitching staffs. However, with pitchers rarely working past the 7th inning, and the advent of lefty-specialists, the 12-man staff has become the norm. With the Rays starters pitching well, certainly it is possible. But as Maddon said, you never know when you will need that extra guy. Whether it is a pitcher getting knocked out in the 3rd inning, or an extra-inning game. With the 12-man staffs we are no longer subjected to seeing a positional player come in to pitch in the 14th inning because a manager is out of pitchers.

Also, baseball no longer schedules double-headers. The beauty of double-headers is that there were more off-days during the regular season in which pitchers could rest their arms. The Rays are in the midst of a stretch in which they will play 20 games in 21 days. Not exactly the time to have fewer pitchers.

Could the Rays implement one of the above strategies? Sure they could. But there is no indication they will, and even if they do, it will only be a band-aid move until a better solution presents itself.

We would love to applaud Marc Lancaster “for the effort”, but we can’t. He obviously did not think this through.

THE GOOD: The Rays deserved 3 losses for last night. Thank goodness they only get one in the standings. And because everybody else in the division lost except for the O’s, the Rays maintain their half-game lead in the division.

THE BAD: DO NOT try to feed us this pile of crap that Andy Sonnanstine was “better than score indicates”. That’s you Roger Mooney (by the way, we are still waiting for you to explain why the Rays did not like the Sports Illustrated cover). Just because 5 of the runs were unearned DOES NOT mean that Sonnanstine has no responsibility. It is not as if Evan Longoria committed 5 errors. Longoria did not give up the 2 hits before the error, or the 3 hits after the error. And as the Rangers broadcast crew mentioned last night, that error could have very easily been ruled a base hit. The ball had a wicked side-spin on it and took an angled hop. In fact the only player that deserves any blame close to what Sonny deserves is Eric Hinske. In the first inning, he played a single into a double by taking a crappy, slow angle and letting a ball get by to the wall. The next batter followed with an RBI double. In the second inning, Hinske once again played a single into a double by letting a ball get by him to the wall. Later in the game, while a valiant effort, Hinske dove for a ball that went off his glove. Hinske is giving the opposition extra bases on an almost nightly basis. How much more of this can Joe Maddon take?…And of course, then there was the bottom of the 3rd inning, with 2 runners on in a 5-run game, Carlos Pena got ahead 3-0 only to end up striking out…And of course, there was the 2-on, no outs, double play from Eric Hinske that killed a rally in the 6th, and the no outs double play from Carl Crawford that killed another one in the 7th inning.

THE TELLING: Her Rays has a much more insightful recap, if you are a masochist.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
• The first vote totals were released and only Carl Crawford, BJ Upton and Carlos Pena are listed among the leaders. C’mon people. If we don’t vote for CC, nobody will! [Rays Report]
• Joe Maddon says that Willy Aybar will rejoin the Rays when he comes off the DL. Marc Lancaster indicates that could happen in time for the White Sox series tomorrow…We will get to the rest of the garbage in this piece later. [Tampa Tribune]
• The Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo of the Week will be this afternoon with game 3 of the Rangers series and will be held right here.
• Rocco Baldelli stated once again that he once to play for the Rays this season. Joe Maddon says the team is “cautiously optimistic”. In other words, nothing new here. [MLB]
• How bad is it right now for the Mets? One of the more popular Mets blogs is now following the Rays…maybe. [Mets Geek aka Rays Geek]

THE GOOD: The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball and Scott Kazmir is just getting warmed up. Last night, the game was over in the first inning. He struck out all three batters in the first inning, with 2 coming on sliders in the dirt. He was also consistently hitting 93-94 on the gun with his fastball. He had 7 Ks in the first 3 innings, and 9 after 5. He would finish with 10 in 7 innings of work, with no walks…The Catwalks. Nobody loves those catwalks more than Carlos Pena who hit another one last night for a double on what would have been a routine flyball…Evan Longoria made yet another diving stop on a ground ball and kept the leadoff hitter off base in a one-run game in the 4th…Dioner Navarro helped kill a rally in the 6th with a perfect throw to third base to gun down a would-be base stealer.

THE BAD: Gary Glover. Can somebody gives us a good reason why a pitcher with 11 walks to only 10 strikeouts and 27 baserunners in 14.1 innings, still has a job? Is there one good reason why Glover is still in the bullpen and Grant Balfour, who is tearing up AAA, is not? Or better yet, is there a good reason Glover is still in the bullpen and Jeff Niemann is not? Nobody can tell us that the Rays’ bullpen, although great so far, wouldn’t be better with Niemann in place of Glover. Clearly, nobody in the rotation is going to pitch themselves out of a job anytime soon and if somebody gets hurt, the Rays then could go with Jason Hammel or JK Ryu or JP Howell or Ben Hendrickson. And if it were to be a long-term injury, they could just re-stretch out Niemann and go that route…Cliff Floyd beat out an infiield single in the 5th inning, and our knees started hurting just watching him run to first base…

THE TELLING: Scott Kazmir is 5-6 mph from possibly becoming the best pitcher in baseball. No. We are not talking about a 99 mph fastball, although that would certainly help. On his good days, Kid K’s fastball sits about 93-94. Ideally, a pitcher’s changeup would be thrown 8-9 mph slower. Kazmir’s change is usually 78-79, for a difference of 14-16 mph. It would be a much more effective pitch if he was throwing it 84-85. Compare to James Shields who throws a 91-92 mph fastball and an 82-83 mph changeup. That is a difference of 8-10 mph. Perfect. And one reason he has one of the most dominating changeups in baseball. Kaz throws a harder fastball, but a slower changup. The problem with throwing a changeup too slow, as Kazmir does, is that it gives the batters a chance to reload even if they are fooled. With a difference of 14-15 mph, it is much easier for the batter to recognize that the pitch is not a fastball and lay off if they are geared for the hard stuff. If Kazmir could find a couple of extra inches on his changeup, he would then have three plus-pitches, and the power of Grayskull would be his…

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
• This week’s Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo will be held tomorrow afternoon for the final game of the Rangers series. Seeing as how we are in Texas this week, the game will be an AM start for us. That means live blogging and drinking while still in our PJs. Yummy!
• Marc Lancaster suggests that Willy Aybar may be the player that is without a job when he is ready to return from the DL. Ben Zobrist and Shawn Riggans’ jobs are safe. That means the final two bench spots go to Gabe Gross, Eric Hinske and Aybar. With Aybar’s better defense and OPS and the ability to also play second base, we have been speculating that Andrew Friedman would try and trade Hinske. Lancaster suggests that Aybar’s inability to play the outfield gives Hinske the edge. Of course the Rays do have Jonny Gomes and Zobrist, who got work in the OF in spring training, as backup outfielders. We are not sure how many backup OF the Rays need. [Tampa Tribune]
• Joe Maddon wants to start giving his starters regular days off so that the linup is fresh down the stretch. He specifically mentioned BJ Upton, who seemed to tire down the stretch last season and Dioner Navarro who has had a few passed balls recently. [MLB]

“Because I do believe this, I believe you have to rest your guys during the season,” Maddon said. “You have to. It’s a long year and you want to play well in September. If you play well in September you’ll do fine in October. You’ve got to keep them fresh for that good September. … You just have to rest people at the right time and you’ve got to keep an eye on them. And it does matter at the end of the season.”

• Baseball Musings takes a look at the Rays and Red Sox and compares their home/road splits. [Baseball Musings]
  
• DRays Bay takes a look at BJ Upton’s lack of power and wonders if we should be concerned…The Rays are in first place in the AL East and have the best record in baseball and Upton is only 23. He’ll be fine, and we don’t need to worry. [DRays Bay]

DRG here again with bonus holiday Monday duty. I can be reached here, but expect today’s load to be light.

The Good: Carlos Pena not only his 10th home run in the 3rd inning to give the Rays the lead 2-1, but he also walked 3 times. In the Orioles series Pena was on base 10 times in 13 plate appearances including a double, triple, home run and 5 walks. And the home run was to the opposite field. I’d say he is zeroed in…More great defense (*yawn*). A diving catch in the first by Carl Crawford. James Shields ended the 3rd by picking Brian Roberts off first as he was trying to get into scoring position. In the 5th Aki Iwamura made a great play up the middle for the third out, that probably saved a run…Evan Longoria. In his last 9 games, Dirtbag is 13-37 (.351) with 5 doubles, 3 home runs and 12 RBI.

The Bad: Natty Light.

The Telling: At 30-20, the Rays are tied for the best record in baseball…The Professor is now 3-3 in his series over/unders predictions in the “Pepper” series at the beginning of each series.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• YouTube video of the day: Best Hockey Fight. EVER. [YouTube]
• You guys really need to check out the comments left on an old post by a Red Sox fan. Keep in mind that this post was written last August. The guy/gal is so offended by the Prof making fun of the Red Sox that he left not one…not two…but THREE comments in a 4 minute span. And I can’t really tell, but he/she is either trying to say that there are NO Red Sox bandwagon fans (“I know a lot of girls who are actually real Sox fans who wear the pink hats, and the players actually do wear green on St. Paddy’s day down in Florida for spring training”) or he/she is trying to justify the fact that the Sox do have bandwagon fans (“the Yankees have just as many if not more bandwagon fans than the Sox”). I am not sure. And this was how this Red Sox fan decided he needed to spend his Sunday night. [Rays Index]
• The AL East Blog says that Saturday night’s performance should solidify Evan Longoria as the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year. [The AL East Blog]
• Lou Piniella says that fans on the east side of Tampa Bay have no excuse for not attending games at the Trop, and that he is looking forward to his return with the Cubs in June. No word yet, if Piniella will dye his hair blonde for the occasion. [St. Pete Times]
• Josh Hamilton will play his first major league game in the Trop tonight. How is he doing? Oh, just contending for the AL Triple Crown and leading candidate for the AL MVP. But hey, the Rays have Eric Hinske in right field, so all’s good. [St. Pete Times]
• The Rays have 4 errors in the last 30 games, the best stretch in baseball since 2003. [St. Pete Times]

TOSS UP

Eric Hinske or Gabe Gross?

On May 11th, Cliff Floyd came off the DL and rejoined the Rays for the first time in over a month. As long as Floyd is healthy (and the Rays are playing in an AL park) he will be the Rays starting DH against right-handers. What isn’t clear is who will be the starting right fielder in those same games. Eric Hinske has been with the Rays all season and he has been one of the Rays most consistent offensive contributors hitting .250/.343/.508 with 7 home runs in only 120 at bats. Gross was added to the roster on April 23rd and has hit .229/.333/.396 in 22 games (14 starts). Gross’ contribution is his glove and his patience. He is a better glove and has a far superior arm to Hinske. We have seen Hinske make several bad plays in the outfield including two instances in the last week in which he played outs or singles into triples. And while Hinske is the bigger offensive threat, Gross has shown a level of patience at the plate not seen often in the Rays lineup.

In 5 games since Floyd came back off the DL (not including the Cardinals series without the DH), Hinske has made 5 starts in right field while Gross has started twice and subbed for Hinske in a 3rd game.

Which one should be the regular right fielder versus righties? At times the offense has sputtered. in the last 10 games the Rays have scored less than 3 runs 4 times. But they have also shown they are hitting the ball well, with 41 hits in the Cardinals series despite no DH. With solid defense everywhere else on the diamond, the Rays can afford one below-average fielder in the lineup on most nights. The bat is too good and Joe Maddon should continue to ride the extra base hit threat as long as possible. HINSKE

OVER/UNDERS

2 runs allowed by James Shields tonight:

In Shields last 4 starts he has allowed 0,7,0,2 runs. The Red Sox outing (7 runs) really seemed to get under Shields’ skin and he has been outstanding since. He will be facing a mediocre offense with the A’s that is coming off a long road trip in which they went 2-7. Not to mention, Shields will be taking the mound in a pitcher-friendly park. Last year in his only start in Oakland, Shields went 8 innings and allowed only 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk. In his other start versus the A’s he allowed 2 runs in 8.1 innings. UNDER

1.5 Wins for the Rays in this series against the A’s:

Oakland is returning home from a 9-game road trip in which they lost 7 games. They now sit 24-21, 1.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West and 1.5 games behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. The A’s are 12-9 at home but they are only 7-10 against lefties which bodes well for the Rays tomorrow when Scott Kazmir takes the mound. The A’s do lead the AL with a +31 run differential, but that is due in large part to their pitching staff which has the 2nd best ERA in the AL at 3.38. They are also 2nd with 320 Ks and have allowed the 5th fewest walks. However, with James Shields on the mound tonight and the 6-1 Andy Sonnanstine on the hill for getaway day on Wednesday, look for the Rays to take at least 2 of 3. OVER

ODDSMAKERS

What are the chances of James Shields throwing a no-hitter this season?

If the question was “for the Rays in any season?” the number would be close to 25%. His stuff is that good. Shields has shown on a number of occasions that he is capable of no-hit stuff. But the question is “this season”. So far, in 9 starts he has a 2-hit shutout and a 1-hit shutout. Last year he threw 9 3-hit innings against the O’s and against the Indians he had a start in which he only allowed 2 hits in 8 innings. The problem is, Shields only has 23-24 starts left in ’08 and we have to assume that 4-5 of those will come against the Yankees or the Sox. 5%

THE GOOD: The Red Sox lost…The Yankees lost…The Orioles lost…So the only team that the Rays lost ground to last yesterday was the Jays. Oh and the O’s are now in their rightful place, last place…

THE BAD: Shaun Marcum faced the minimum through the first 6.2 innings. The only hit prior to the 9th inning was a double single by Dioner Navarro in which he was promptly thrown out at second base because people that chubby should only sprint 90 feet at a time….For the second game this series, the Rays struck out at least 10 times, led by the Sombrero-loving Carlos Pena. Three nights ago it was a regular sombrero with 3 Ks in 4 at bats, Two nights ago it was the golden sombrero with 4 Ks in 4 at bats. And last night it was a regular sombrero again with 3 Ks in 4 at bats…We are still trying to figure out how Vernon Wells caught up to and actually caught Aki Iwamura’s long drive to center in the 7th…We know it was only 1 run in 6.2 innings, but we are not giving Matt Garza credit for a ‘good’. We can’t quite figure it out, but he either walks too many or strikes out too few. Maybe both?

THE TELLING: We like to call this a “tip your cap” game. When the baseball gods gathered yesterday morning and reviewed yesterday’s matchups they declared that the Jays would win. At that point there was just nothing that the Rays could do. It was predetermined. For you Maddon players out there, it is like when you are rolling through a season and your Bucs squad sits 10-0 and all of the sudden the computer opponent goes into “49ers Dynasty Mode” in which it can do nothing wrong and you can do nothing right. Your undefeated team is guaranteed to fumble at least two kickoff returns that will both be returned for touchdowns, and no matter how many of your “sure-thing” plays you run, nothing goes right. Sometimes, when the gods speak, it is not in your favor.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Our apologies for the lack of Live Blog-A-Baloos. They will return with full-force next week. Not sure what day yet. Any suggestions? And next week’s will be held here.
• Joe Maddon and Carlos Pena had a closed-door meeting that lasted for 20 minutes following last night’s game. During the meeting, which was heated at times, Maddon threatened to bench the slugger if he didn’t pull his head out of his ass…Oh, who are we kidding. This is Papa Joe we are talking about. They hugged it out and Papa Joe sang El Gato sweet nothings, and told him some tales of lollipops and daffodils. [Rays Report]
• More injury updates from Marc Lancaster: Ben Zobrist had his first rehab start for Vero Beach. He DH’d and went 1-3…Cliff Floyd played in another extended spring game as a DH and should rejoin the team within a week…Willy Aybar also played DH in the same game but is still a ways off. Which begs the question: Why is he playing in an extended spring game, if his hamstring is no where near ready to come back? Is there more to his injury?…Al Reyes and Gary Glover played catch (we assume Reyes played the role of ‘Dad’). Reyes has a bullpen session scheduled for today, while Glover will do the same on Saturday…Scott Kazmir had “spectacular” command in his bullpen session yesterday. [Rays Report]
• Bugs & Cranks wonders if Joe Maddon was trying to bait the Jays fans with his comments of their booing of Eric S#!tske. [Bugs & Cranks]
• And Drunk Jays Fans, proprietor of the aforementioned nickname, S#!tske, are a little perturbed that there is a chance that Eric Hinske does not know why he is being booed in Toronto…For the record, we understand. But we also love that the Toronto fans are fanning the fire that is Eric S#!tske, because right now? Hinske is The S#!tske. [Drunk Jays Fans]
• The Strike Zone sees Andy Sonnanstine as a strong candidate to win 20 games. [The Strike Zone]
• Jays fans didn’t take losing to Andy Sonnanstine too well. [primoz forever]
• One blog takes a shot at the upcoming auction at the Trop for “extraordinary baseball experiences”…We gotta admit, they are pretty ridiculous. Also, the name of the website It Is High, It Is Far, It Is…caught is pure awesome. For those not familiar, it is a reference to John Sterling, Yankees broadcaster/blowhard and his home run call, which he uses for anything approaching the outfield wall. And it doesn’t matter if the home run was actually a line drive that just cleared the fence. He will still use the same idiotic call…P.S. The slogan for the website is “The road to the New York Yankees’ 27th World Championship”. Might as well have made that the name of the site, because the “road” is going on 8 years and it does not look like the number is changing anytime soon. [It Is High, It Is Far, It is...caught]

THE GOOD: Good game for Akinori Iwamura offensively. In the 3rd, Aki had an RBI single, but more impotantly, with 2 outs, he advanced to second base on Carl Crawford’s sac fly. That allowed Aki to score on BJ Upton’s single…Jason Bartlett made two amazing plays in the field. The first came in the 5th when he charged and barehanded a slow grounder to get the runner. Later in the 8th in a 1-run game, he ranged deep into the hole to his right, stabbed a grounder, turned and made a strong one-hop throw to Carlos Pena. Make no mistake, that one-hop throw was as intentional play that shortstops often make on artificial turf, the same stuff Bartlett played on in Minnesota…Eric Hinske hit a lonnngggg home run. We pedicted two. One to go……Despite his struggles at the plate, Evan Longoria is still playing solid defense making a couple of good plays including the start of a very important double play. With 1 run in already and the Rays up by 1 in the 6th, the Jays had 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Dirtbag started a 5-4-3 to kill the rally.

THE BAD: We complained about the Toronto broadcast in the Orlando series and things were only worse this time. In the bottom of the third, the Jays scored on a close play at the plate. We are still yet to see a good replay or one that slowed the play down enough to get a good look. In the bottom of the 6th, Akinori Iwamura made a great play up the middle and made a good throw. Once again, we failed to get a good replay or one slow enough to see if the runner was indeed safe…The Rays struggled early on with 5 of the first 6 batters going down on strikes…In the 2nd inning, we saw our first incident in which Aki Iwamura looked lost at second base. With a runner on first, Aki fielded a ground ball only a few steps from the bag. He should have stepped on the bag himself, but instead tried to glove-flip the ball to Jason Bartlett. It worked, but it was awkward and eliminated a chance at turning two…Aki Iwamura also made a terrible baserunning play. On an RBI double in the 5th, he hesitated out of the box and then hesitated at second base and got thrown out at third for the first out, breaking a golden rule in baseball, never make the first out at third base…The Rays rarely sacrifice, but Joe Maddon tried in the 3rd with men on 1st and 2nd with no out. But Jason Bartlett failed to get the bunt down in fair territory…Evan Longoria is 2-19 and looks lost at times…Carlos Pena had the golden sombrero (4 Ks)…In the 9th inning, Carl Crawford swung at a pitch that almost hit his back leg. With 2 strikes that is almost acceptable. But not with 1 strike.

THE TELLING: What we love the most about the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays are wins like last night. The game was close, but there was little or no drama after the 6th inning. That has never happened before. If this game was in 2007, the Rays might have won, but not until after they blew the lead, and fought back, or at the very least, loaded the bases in the 8th and 9th innings…Joe Maddon went with Dan Wheeler for 2 innings again. We have to assume that he will not be available tonight…Troy Percival now has 7 saves, and 4 have come against the Jays…The Rays are now 7-8 on the road and 10-7 at the Trop…

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• Injury updates from Marc Lancaster: Cliff Floyd and Ben Zobrist played in extended spring training games yesterday. Zobrist may join Vero Beach as early as tomorrow and play there the rest of the week. He will have the pins removed from his thumb next Monday and he could join the Rays on Tuesday. Floyd could also return about that time. Al Reyes could also return as early as next week and Gary Glover could be back as early as this weekend. [Rays Report]
• Interesting read from ESPN.com as they take a look at exactly how each member of the Rays’ 25-man roster was acquired and who was responsible for the acquisition. The point being that despite all Chuck LaMar’s failures, he deserves credit for a number of the players that have helped the Rays turn the corner…He may deserve credit, but he is not getting any from us out of pure stubborness. [ESPN]
• Scott Kazmir will work on ironing out his mechanics in his bullpen session today. [Tampa Tribune]
• Eric Hinske was booed continually last night and Joe Maddon can’t figure out why. [MLB]

“What’s going on with the booing,” said Maddon, with a huge smile. “One of the nicest guys in the history of the United States and he gets booed in Canada. What’s going on?…Don’t boo Eric Hinske,” he said. “He’s a great guy. I thought, what did he do? Maybe skip town with a couple parking tickets? I don’t know. And he gets booed. He’s a wonderful young man. One of the finest.”

• Carlos Pena is the inaugural member of the “LBS Golden Sombrero Club”. That’s not a good thing. [Larry Brown Sports]
• Evan Longoria is third after 5 weeks in the Baseball Happenings AL Rookie of the Year poll. [Baseball Happenings]
• We are a little lost on this one, as we have no idea who Paul DiMeo is, but we do see the similarity. [Hugging Harold Reynolds]
• Marc Topkin tosses a few names around if Andrew Friedman decides to keep playing musical chairs in the outfield…Jacque Jones does nothing for us, but then again, we still aren’t sure why Nathan Haynes is a Ray. [The Heater]
• Andrew Friedman says that the Rays have narrowed their choice for the top pick in the draft to five players and signability may be a factor as Friedman says that they may try to sign a player prior to the draft. [MLB]