Archive for the 'Diamond Mind' Category

Nov 03

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 2008 Preseason Mathematical Projections: A Look Back

CAIRO, CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, The Hardball Times, ZIPS Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulates the 2008 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.


Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 92-70, showing that the Rays played 5 games better than would be predicted based on their run differential (by comparison, the Red Sox record of 95-67 matched their Pythagorean record).

CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays breakout, but still came 10 wins short of the actual number, giving the Rays a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. At the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS, Diamond Mind and The Hardball Times all projected a losing record for the Rays. ZiPS and Diamond Mind gave the Rays less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

While all of the projections predicted the Rays would score more runs in 2008, the Rays actually scored 8 fewer runs. On the other side of the ball, the Rays were projected to allow over 140 fewer runs this season. The actual number was 273 fewer runs given up by the pitching staff.

The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]

Mar 26

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The Mathematical Definition Of "The Rays Are Getting Warmer"

CAIRO, CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, The Hardball Times, ZIPS Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80.

In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”.

The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2008 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2008 season using player projections from six different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind, Sean Smith’s CHONE system, The Hardball Times and their own CAIRO.

Last season only the first four projections were used and when combined, the Rays were projected to win 71 games and made the playoffs 45 out 4000 seasons or about 1.1% of the time. In reality, the Rays lost 148 games and made the playoffs 0% of the time.

For more details on the individual projection systems and their level of historical accuracy, go HERE.

Now let’s take a look at how the Rays are projected for the 2008 season…

A few notes on the projections…

  • We previously mentioned that single iterations of the 2008 season using PECOTA and CHONE projection systems gave the Rays 88 and 89 wins respectively. At the time we tried to temper the excitement because they were only a single piece of data. We now see that both systems have slightly lower numbers when projected over 1,000 seasons.
  • These projections are based on a healthy Scott Kazmir.
  • Even the most conservative projection for the pitching staff (Diamond Mind) has the Rays allowing 100 fewer runs in 2008 while PECOTA has them bettering their ERA by over a run a game.
  • The average projections look a little like what I think most Rays fans would expect. A .500 record and about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs if things break the right way.

We now have a mathemtical definition for “No Chance in Hell” [Rays Index]
2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’ [Rays Index]

Apr 01

2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’

CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, ZIPS Cork Gaines No Comments »

The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2007 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2007 season using player projections from four different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind’s projections and Sean Smith’s CHONE system.

Last season only the first three projections were used and when combined, the Rays were projected to win 71 games and made the playoffs 17 out 3000 seasons or slightly more than 0.5% of the time. The Rays ended up losing 148 games and made the playoffs 0% of the time.

Let’s take a look at the Rays 2007 projections…

  • CHONE: The Rays are projected to finish last in the AL East with an average of 71.3 wins, only 0.6 wins behind the Baltimore Orioles. The projections have the Rays winning the division two times and the wild card three times. According to CHONE the Rays will have a big jump in runs scored (689 to 823) but also a slight bump in runs allowed (856 to 915).
  • Diamond Mind: The Rays are projected to finish last in the AL East with an average of 69.3 wins, 5.6 wins behind the Baltimore Orioles. The projections may be the most realistic as the Rays failed to reach the playoffs in any of the 1000 seasons. The only other tam with that distinction is Kansas City. According to Diamond Mind the Rays will have a similar runs scored and runs allowed as projected by CHONE (812/930).
  • PECOTA: PECOTA has the most ambitious projections for the Rays with a 4th place finish and 77.5 wins, 2.9 games ahead of the Orioles and in the playoffs 36 times (8 division titles and 28 wild card births) or 3.6% of the 1000 seasons. PECOTA predicts a similar bump in runs scored (809) but differs from the others by predicting slightly better runs allowed (839).
  • ZIPS: Zips is more similar to the first two projections with 67.6 wins, 11.1 games behind the O’s and in the playoffs four times (1 division and 3 wild cards). Zips predicts the lowest offensive output for the Rays with only a slight bump in runs scored to 758. Like the first two the pitching is expected to surrender more runs (879).

If the four datasets are averaged together, the Rays are projected to finish approximately 71-91, with 11 division titles and 34 wild card appearances in 4000 seasons (1.1%). The Rays are also projected to score 799 runs. As a team the Rays scored 689 runs in 2006, lowest in the majors. The Rays are projected to give up 891 runs. In 2006, the Rays pitchers surrendered 856 runs. Only two teams allowed more.

While it seems realistic that the Rays will score a lot more runs this season, we are not sure why three of the projections have the pitching surrendering more runs in 2007. The staff could not have pitched worse in 2006, yet somehow the projections think they will in 2007. Oddsmakers have the Rays over/under win total at 67. 71 wins is more in line with what we think is realistic for this team in its current form.