Archive for the 'CAIRO' Category

Nov 03

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The 2008 Preseason Mathematical Projections: A Look Back

CAIRO, CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, The Hardball Times, ZIPS Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems (ZiPS, PECOTA, Diamond Mind, CHONE, The Hardball Times, CAIRO) uses a different set of projected stats and simulates the 2008 season 1,000 times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.


Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 92-70, showing that the Rays played 5 games better than would be predicted based on their run differential (by comparison, the Red Sox record of 95-67 matched their Pythagorean record).

CHONE proved to be the closest to predicting the Rays breakout, but still came 10 wins short of the actual number, giving the Rays a 30.4% chance of making the playoffs. At the other end of the spectrum, ZiPS, Diamond Mind and The Hardball Times all projected a losing record for the Rays. ZiPS and Diamond Mind gave the Rays less than 5% chance of making the playoffs.

While all of the projections predicted the Rays would score more runs in 2008, the Rays actually scored 8 fewer runs. On the other side of the ball, the Rays were projected to allow over 140 fewer runs this season. The actual number was 273 fewer runs given up by the pitching staff.

The Mathematical Definition Of “The Rays Are Getting Warmer” [Rays Index]

Mar 26

[2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS] The Mathematical Definition Of "The Rays Are Getting Warmer"

CAIRO, CHONE, Diamond Mind, PECOTA, The Hardball Times, ZIPS Cork Gaines 3 Comments »

Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80.

In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”.

The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2008 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2008 season using player projections from six different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind, Sean Smith’s CHONE system, The Hardball Times and their own CAIRO.

Last season only the first four projections were used and when combined, the Rays were projected to win 71 games and made the playoffs 45 out 4000 seasons or about 1.1% of the time. In reality, the Rays lost 148 games and made the playoffs 0% of the time.

For more details on the individual projection systems and their level of historical accuracy, go HERE.

Now let’s take a look at how the Rays are projected for the 2008 season…

A few notes on the projections…

  • We previously mentioned that single iterations of the 2008 season using PECOTA and CHONE projection systems gave the Rays 88 and 89 wins respectively. At the time we tried to temper the excitement because they were only a single piece of data. We now see that both systems have slightly lower numbers when projected over 1,000 seasons.
  • These projections are based on a healthy Scott Kazmir.
  • Even the most conservative projection for the pitching staff (Diamond Mind) has the Rays allowing 100 fewer runs in 2008 while PECOTA has them bettering their ERA by over a run a game.
  • The average projections look a little like what I think most Rays fans would expect. A .500 record and about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs if things break the right way.

We now have a mathemtical definition for “No Chance in Hell” [Rays Index]
2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’ [Rays Index]