Aug 24
When the topic of “Andrew Friedman’s worst move” comes up, most fans go straight to Pat Burrell. But in the end, that free agent signing may pale in comparison to the decision to draft Tim Beckham over Buster Posey at the top of the 2008 draft.
Posey made his big league debut last September, playing 7 games for the Giants. This year, he rejoined the Giants at the end of May and hasn’t looked back. In 73 games, Posey is hitting .342 with 9 home runs and a .386 OBP. He would be leading the NL in hitting by a wide margin if he qualified (Joey Votto currently leads with a .323 avg. Posey is about 90 plate appearances short of qualifying).
Meanwhile, Beckham is still in single-A, hitting .255. He has improved his ability to get on base, raising his OBP to .346. But he still hasn’t shown that he can be a big league shortstop, committing 24 errors this year after 43 a year ago.
Even the Rays sound like they have already given up hope that Beckham will ever be a great player. Back in June, Mitch Lukevics (Rays Director of Minor League Operations) described Beckham as having “all the physical skills to be a Major League player” but that Beckham is going to have to “stay after it.”
So where did the Rays go wrong? Drafting at the top of the MLB draft is Read the rest of this entry »
Aug 16
Durham 6, Indianapolis 5. Nathan Haynes singled home the tying run in the top of the 9th and then scored the go-ahead run on a sac fly by Jon Weber…Jeff Niemann struck out 6 and walked 6 in 4.2 innings, allowing 2 hits and 5 runs. He also hit a batter. The big blow was a bases loaded double in the second inning after Niemann had walked the bases loaded. Niemann has now walked 16 batters in his last 20.2 innings pitched…Chris Richard was 2-5 with a double and a home run. He drove in 3…John Jaso added his 3rd home run since being promoted from Montgomery…Fernando Perez stole his 39th base. He is 4th in the IL in steals…Dan Johnson was 2-5 and leads the IL with a .969 OPS and .422 OBP.
Jacksonville 7, Montgomery 3. James Houser made his first start in a month and was limited to 1.1 innings, walking 3 and giving up 1 hit and a run…Ryan Reid pitched 2 perfect innings of relief with 2 Ks…JT Hall hit a solo home run.
Jupiter 7, Vero Beach 5. Brandon Mann struck out 8 in 5 innings, but allowed 6 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks. He gave up 3 home runs…Hector Gimenez hit a 2-run home run for the D-Rays.
Columbus 3, Hagerstown 2 (13). Jesse Darcy struck out 5 and walked none in 6 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 earned). He is 12th in the SAL in ERA (3.12)…Henry Wrigley was 4-5 with 2 doubles and a walk, while Maiko Loyola finished 1-5 with a double, walk and his 41st stolen base. He is now 4th in the SAL in steals.
Hudson Valley 7, Oneonta 2.
Bristol 6, Princeton 1 (gm 1). Tim Beckham went 0-3 with a strikeout.
Bristol 15, Princeton 2 (gm 2). Tim Beckham went 0-3 with a walk.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- James Houser who missed the last month with minor knee surgery has been activated. [Biscuits' Batter]
- The Pirates were able to sign Pedro Alvarez to a minor league deal afterall, with a $6 million signing bonus, just short of Tim Beckham’s deal for $6.15 million. [USA Today]
- Buster Posey, another player the Rays apparently considered with the top pick signed for $6.2 million. His deal was also a minor league deal…We could be wrong but the only draftee that we know of that received a major league deal was LHP Brian Matusz with the Orioles #4 pick. [San Francisco Chronicle]
Jun 06
THE GOOD: The consensus seem to be that the Rays took the player with the best chance to be a superstar in the big leagues, in Tim Beckham.
THE BAD: Can somebody please explain to us why Tim Beckham was wearing an old Devil Rays’ cap after he was drafted? And apparently Mr. Beckham needs to work on his telephone interview skills.
THE TELLING: While people differ on what kind of bat Tim Beckham has, most seem to agree that he is already at or near major league caliber defensively.
The question then becomes: How does this selection affect the future of Reid Brignac? There were already questions over his future with the gold clove-caliber defense of Jason Bartlett now manning the shortstop position for the Rays at the big league level. Bartlett, who will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this off-season, is still under the Rays control for the next three seasons. While Brignac certainly is better offensively, there are concerns over inserting him next season considering much of the Rays emergence is due to the improved defense and the chemistry between Bartlett and Aki Iwamura.
Beckham is expected to move quickly through the minors, even as a high school draftee. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that he will be ready for the big leagues by the end of 2010. It seems more than likely that the Rays will stick with Bartlett for the next 2+ seasons until Beckham is ready to make the jump.
So then the next question is: What happens to Reid Brignac? Brignac who is now considered an above-average defensive shortstop may have to move to a new position (right field?) if he is to make his break with the Rays. Otherwise, Brignac’s future may lie with another organization.
DRAFT WEBTOPIA…
- Baseball America says that when push came to shove, the Rays drafted the player with the best ability. [Baseball America]
- Minor League Ball says that the Rays 5th round pick,
Jason Christian Michael Sheriden, a college first baseman, could be a sleeper. [Minor League Ball]
- Andrew Friedman commented on reports that the Rays steered away from Buster Posey because of his pre-draft demands for a $12 million guaranteed contract. [Rays Report]
“That had zero factor in our decision,” he said. “We’re confident that whoever we would have taken, with the size of the check we were going to go to the table with that we’d be able to sign whoever we took. Look, everyone makes different demands leading up to the draft – even second-rounders, third-rounders. We trust our process and our ability to get players signed and the relationships that our area [scouts] have made with the players. It had zero factor for us.”
- The Rays hope to sign Beckham quickly. Marc Lancaster speculates it will take longer than the agreement reached with Evan Longoria but shouldn’t take nearly as long as the deal with David Price which went right down to the August 15th deadline. Lancaster notes that the Rays will move more quickly with Beckham not being a pitcher as innings thrown is not a concern. Last year, the Rays did not want to add any more innings to Price’s arm after his college season. [Rays Report]
- Marc Topkin has reactions from the Rays and from Tim Beckham. [St. Pete Times]
- Today the Rays drafted Tim Beckham’s older brother, Jeremy Beckham, a second baseman from Georgia Southern University. [Rays Report]
Jun 05
Word is starting to leak out that the Tampa Bay Rays will select high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the top pick in the draft. It had been thought that the Rays were deciding between Beckham and Florida State catcher Buster Posey.
Many will say that the decision was based on drafting talent over the need for catchers in the organization. However, the decision may have been made based on contract demands
Baseball Prospectus is reporting that the Rays were leaning towards drafting Posey, but switched to Beckham because of Posey’s demand for a $12 million contract.
Late this evening, multiple sources have indicated as to Buster Posey’s draft-eve asking price, and it’s a doozy at $12 million. Right now, that looks like more than enough to make up the Rays mind, and they’ll likely be taking Tim Beckham unless that number reverses dramatically in the next 12 hours.
Last year, David Price received $8.5 million in guaranteed money and he is a left-handed pitcher with Ace potential. Posey is a catcher that projects to hit 20 home runs in the big leagues. $12 million? Kids these days…smokin’ way to much ganga.
Rays will make Beckham top pick [Rays Report]
D-Rays On Beckham (or, Money Changes Everything) [Baseball Prospectus]
Jun 05
Richmond 8, Durham 1. Chris Mason dropped to 2-6 after allowing 5 runs in 5.1 innings on 10 hits and no walks. He struck out 6…Reid Brignac had 2 of the Bulls 5 hits in 4 at bats.
Montgomery 10, Carolina 2. Richard de los Santos gave up 2 runs in 7 innings and evened his record at 5-5.
Jupiter 12, Vero Beach 1. Brandon Mann allowed 2 runs in 7 innings on 8 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 6…Wade Townsend faced 6 batters in relief and all 6 reached base on 3 hits and 3 walks. All 6 would eventually score….Matt Fields and Nevin Ashley were each 2-4.
Columbus 2, Savannah 0. Making just his 4th start of the season Jesse Darcy struck out 7 in 6 shutout innings. He allowed 3 hits and no walks. His K-to-walk ratio is now 42-to-5….Greg Sexton had 1 of the Catfish’ 3 hits and 1 of the 2 RBI.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- Baseball America says the Rays have narrowed their choice down to Tim Beckham and Buster Posey, with indications of a bit of disagreement within the organization on who to select. [Baseball America]
While Vandy third baseman Pedro Alvarez ranked first on BA’s draft board, he’s about third on Tampa’s board, according to industry sources. The top spot remains undecided. According to BA’s sources, the Rays’ scouting department prefers Georgia prep shortstop Tim Beckham, the kind of toolsy, middle-of-the-diamond athlete the Rays have drafted repeatedly—the kind of athletes that have put the Rays in first place in the American League East as the draft approaches. Others in the organization, such as de facto GM Andrew Friedman, are said to prefer Florida State catcher Buster Posey as the perfect complement to the organization’s impressive current stockpile of talent.
- Eduardo Morlan, who is out with a sore shoulder threw in extended spring training, but his velocity was not as expected so he will stay a little longer. [Biscuits Batter]
Jun 04
THE GOOD: Say what you will about
Aki Iwamura, but this guy was born to hit in Fenway Park. His first at bat of the game was a typical Aki flyball to left field, only in Fenway that is a leadoff home run. Aki would hit 50 doubles if he played for the Sox. Let’s hope he doesn’t figure that out after his playing days with the Rays ends…
Carlos Pena had 10 home runs at the end of May in ’07. He had 10 home runs after May in ’08. He got his first of June last night on a ball that looked like it was off the end of the bat and yet kept going for a 2-run shot that gave the Rays a 4-3 lead in the 6th…
Grant Balfour and
Gary Glover who may be battling for a roster spot over the next week-plus, both pitched and pitched well. They combined for 2.2 scoreless innings of relief with 1 hit and 1 walk. Balfour did allow one inherited runner to score on a sac fly.
THE BAD: Matt Garza. It is all about command in the strike zone for Garza and last night he did not have it. Of his 96 pitches, only 55 were strikes. And amazingly he only threw 8 first-pitch strikes to the 26 batters he faced (31%). In his last start in which he struck out 10, he was strike-one to 23 of 30 batters (77%). This is especially important against a patient veteran team like the Sox. They are just going to sit back and wait for Garza to throw a strike, knowing there is a good chance he won’t. Of the 26 batters that Garza faced, only 3 swung at the first pitch, and one of those was JD Drew’s 4th inning home run. They were just begging The Garza Complex to get ahead 0-1 and he couldn’t do it.
THE TELLING: With Carl Crawford on the bench, Papa Joe Maddon had Dioner Navarro batting in the 2-hole, and Eric Hinske in left field.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
- This weeks Rays Index Live Blog-A-Baloo will indeed be held tomorrow (Thursday) night. And don’t forget that it is an early 6:05 start time, so be sure to make your beer run early.
- Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
- Carl Crawford was not in the starting lineup as he flew to Birmingham, AL to visit Dr. James Andrews to have an MRI on his sore hamstring. There was no structural damage, and CC flew back and was used as a pinch-hitter later in the game. [MLB]
- With no David Ortiz in the lineup it would be tempting to just walk Manny Ramirez every at bat. But Joe Maddon says he will wait and see how the rest of the Sox lineup is hitting before making any decisions. [Boston Herald]
- Another power ranking has the Rays rated #1. This one is a bit different in that it is statistically driven, which seems like a good way of revealing the teams that have been lucky or unlucky so far this season. [WhatIfSports]
- Some blogger apparently stopped playing World of Warcraft long enough to comment on the Rays having better odds to win the AL East than the Yankees. [Sports Crackle Pop]
- The Rays just started a rather tough stretch of games. [St. Pete Times]
- Saber Scouting is split on whether the Rays will take Buster Posey or Tim Beckham with the first pick tomorrow. [Saber Scouting]
Jun 03
Earlier today we took Steve Henson behind the woodshed for referring to Dioner Navarro as a “middling” catcher and for suggesting that if the Rays have any interest in winning, they should draft Buster Posey. A little voice in our head kept telling us that we we weren’t doing Navi enough justice in our evaluation. So we dug a little deeper.
Heading into tonight’s game, Navarro has an OPS of .831 (.391 OBP + .440 SLG). That seems pretty good, but we wanted to know exactly how good that is for a young catcher.
In the expansion era (since 1961) only 11 catchers posted an OPS higher than .831 in their age-24 season or younger. The list is a who’s who of modern catchers…
If we look at adjusted OPS (OPS+; OPS adjusted for park and league; 100 is league average), Navi’s 131 would be in even more rarefied air…
There are quite a few Hall-of-Famers and near-Hall-of-Famers on those lists. But hey, maybe Steve Henson thinks Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, Carlton Fisk, Joe Torre and Gary Carter were “middling” catchers also.
[Ed. note: when running this through Baseball-Reference's "Play Index" we only included catchers that had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting crown. If we removed that restriction, the only difference in both lists is the addition of Brian McCann's '06 campaign (age 22), in which he was 10 plate appearances short of qualifying. He would be #1 on the first list with a .960 OPS and #5 on the second list with 143 OPS+]
Jun 03
Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports projects the first round of the upcoming baseball draft and predicts that the Tampa Bay Rays will select Buster Posey, the catcher from Florida State. Of course his reasoning is a little screwy…
1. Tampa Bay Rays – Buster Posey, C (Florida State): All of a sudden the Rays are a team with aspirations of winning now, and Posey – a converted shortstop – is an advanced player who could take the job from middling incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro by 2010.
Ahhh. So drafting Posey will help the Rays win “now” even though he won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2010.
And apparently Henson believes that Navarro is an average catcher. First of all, Navi is only 24 years old. Most 24-year old catchers are still in AA and yet Navi is in his 5th season in the majors, which explains his slow development. But he is far from “middling” any longer. Since the All-Star break last season Navarro is hitting .313/.370/.461 with an OPS of .831, all while playing better-than-average defense. Did we mention he is only 24?
If somebody wants to argue that the Rays need catchers in the system because outside of Navi, there are very few, if any, options…that is an argument. But to say the Rays need to draft a catcher to win now, just shows that a writer only needs 36 words to sound like an idiot.
MLB first-round projections [Yahoo! Sports]
Jun 01
Pawtucket 14, Durham 7. Jeff Niemann gave up 10 runs in 4.2 innings including 4 home runs. Jon Weber, Justin Ruggiano and Elliot Johnson homered for the Bulls. Reid Brignac was 1-3 with his 20th double.
Carolina 7, Montgomery 6. Chris Nowak and Gabby Martinez homered for the Biscuits. Martinez’ shot was a grand slam. Mike Prochaska gave up 6 runs in 5 innings.
Brevard Co. 3, Vero Beach 2. Jeremy Hellickson took his first loss of the season and drops to 5-1 after giving up 3 runs in 6 innings. He struck out 5 and walked 1.
Greenville 6, Columbus 2.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- Jeremy Hellickson spoke to his hometown newspaper, and said he is hoping for an all-star break promotion. [Des Moines Register]
- James Houser is battling a knee injury and will be skipped the next time through the Biscuits rotation. [Biscuits Batter]
- The Sporting News previews the MLB Draft. Gerry Fraley says that one NL Executive says that RJ Harrison is being pressured to select Buster Posey suggesting that the Rays are more concerned about drafting need over talent. This goes against everything the Rays have ever said about the draft process, so it will be interesting to see if the Rays do pass on a more talented player. [The Sporting News]
- However, DRays Bay has a quote from RJ Harrison that suggests that he prefers Pedro Alvarez. [DRays Bay]
- According to Marc Lancaster the Rays have not even narrowed down the top pick, having spent more time trying to figure out who will be available in the second round and beyond. [Tampa Tribune]
May 31
Durham 10, Pawtucket 6.
Chattanooga 4, Montgomery 0.
Vero Beach 6, Brevard Co. 2.
Greenville 6, Columbus 3.
NOTES FROM DOWN ON THE FARM…
- Desmond Jennings, who had yet to play this season, has been participating in extended spring games and could be activated today or tomorrow. [Biscuits Batter]
- No surprise here. King David Price makes the weekly installment of Baseball America’s “Prospect Hot Sheet”. Unfortunately, Glenn Gibson makes the “Who’s Not” list. [Baseball America]
After making his much-anticipated debut on May 22, Price came out for his second start and beat a three-time Cy Young Award winner. Martinez praised Price’s performance and ability after watching him fan nine guys and allow just two hits. On the season, he is now 2-0, 0.00 in 11 innings with 13 strikeouts, one walk and five hits. At this rate, Price won’t be in the Florida State League for long.
- Might the Rays actually draft a ‘nole? Oh god, please no. [ESPN]
- Baseball America says Tim Beckham is the bestest in the land! Or Pedro Alvarez who comes in at #2. Buster Posey is only #4 on their list. Listen to them. They are smart. [Baseball America]
