Archive for the 'Brian Fuentes' Category

Dec 31

[THE HANGOVER] The One Where We Discuss The Rays Pursuit Of Brian Fuentes

Brian Fuentes, Rafael Soriano Cork Gaines 9 Comments »

The Rays are one of several teams interested in signing lefty reliever Brian Fuentes. Ken Rosenthal says Fuentes is looking for $5 million per season and a multi-year deal. The Rays can probably afford $5 million, but we can’t imagine they offer more than a one-year deal plus an option.

Some have speculated that the Rays may have an advantage over the other teams because they can offer Fuentes an opportunity to save games. That may be true, but only if the Rays are offering about the same amount of money. We would be shocked if Fuentes turned down significantly more money just so that he can pitch the 9th inning for a team that may contend over the 8th inning for a team that will contend.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

  • Marc Topkin says the Rays “could be close to getting a new closer.” [TampaBay.com]
  • MLB Trade Rumors weighs the pros and cons of the Rays signing Brian Fuentes. [MLB Trade Rumors]
  • Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees are not pursuing Rafael Soriano. [Fox Sports]
Nov 30

Ranking The AL Closers; JP Howell Second Worst

Brian Fuentes, Jake McGee, Joakim Soria, JP Howell, Mo Rivera Cork Gaines 8 Comments »

Last year, Joe Posnanski generated a new statistic to evaluate closers (CLOSER+) based on Bill James’ method of classifying saves. James breaks down save opportunities into three categories:

1. Easy Save. This is a save when the first batter faced is not the tying or go-ahead run.
2. Tough save: This is a save when the tying or go ahead run is already on base when you take over.
3. Regular save: Everything else. [Typically, a "regular" save is when a pitcher starts the 9th inning with a 1-run lead.]

CLOSER+ compares a pitcher’s save total to how many saves an average closer would have converted given the same number and type of save chances. 100 is average. A number greater than 100 means the pitcher did better than an average closer would have fared.

While Posnanski compared closers to all relievers, we decided to do things a little different this year. We looked at just American League closers (any pitcher with at least 10 saves), and evaluated JP Howell based on how the average AL closer fared in each category (full rankings are below).

Notes on the above table…

  • AL closers converted 93.3% of Easy saves. Based on Howell’s 12 Easy save opportunities, the average AL closer would have converted 11.2 saves. So Howell was average on Easy saves. The same can be said for “Regular” saves. Howell converted 6 while an average AL closer would have converted 6.6.
  • Howell struggled converting saves in which the tying or go-ahead runner was already on base when he entered the game. In those situations, he was 0-5. On average, AL closers converted about half of the Tough chances.
  • In his 25 save opportunities, Howell converted 17 saves. That translates to a CLOSER+ of 83 as an average AL closer would have been expected to convert 20.5 out of 25 based on the number and type of save opportunities.. So Howell was well below average in the AL.

Now let’s look at where Howell ranks among the 16 AL closers that registered at least 10 saves…

Notes on the above table…

  • Howell ranked 15th out of 16 AL closers, finishing ahead of only Jim Johnson who became the Orioles closer after George Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Howell was hurt most by his 0-5 showing in Tough saves. For comparison, Troy Percival had a CLOSER+ of 103 in 2008*. The advantage Percival had was that Joe Maddon never used Percy in a Tough save situation.
  • Tough saves are rare these days. Only 4 closers in the AL converted more than 1 save this season in which the pitcher entered the game with the tying run already on base. Only 6 attempted more than 2.
  • Mariano Rivera tops the list with a 111 CLOSER+. His 4-4 showing in Tough save situations shows how dominant he can be in the most crucial situations. Every other closer with at least 2 Tough save opportunities blew at least one of those chances.
  • Brian Fuentes, who led the AL in saves (48) was only the 10th best closer in the AL.
  • Andrew Bailey, who won the AL Rookie of the Year award, was the 9th best closer in the AL.
  • How much would you give up to have Joakim Soria on the Rays?

Howell’s numbers were hurt in part  by spending part of the season in middle relief. One of the Tough saves that Howell blew came in the 7th inning. In those situations, Howell was not being asked to close the game. While a Blown Save is possible, a Save is not. If we remove that one blown save, Howell’s CLOSER+ is a little better (85), but not much.

It is no secret that one of the Rays’ biggest priorities this off-season is renovating the bullpen. What is unknown is how the Rays will handle the closer’s role in 2010. Will they stick with Howell, develop a closer from within (Jake McGee?) or will they decide to bring in a closer via trade or free agency?

If the Rays hope to return to the playoffs in 2010, they will need more consistency from the bullpen when the game is on the line. And they will need a closer that performs better than next-to-last in the AL.

*The 2008 data uses conversion rates for closers in the AL and NL.

Oct 24

[HAPPY HOUR] ‘Blue Man Grandma’ Will Haunt Our Nightmares

Brian Fuentes, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Ryan Howard, Troy Percival Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

Earlier today we discussed how a rainout in game 3 will leave the Rays and Phillies scrambling for a starter in a potential game 7. Now we want to hear your opinion…


DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
  • Some curious photos from game 2. The “Blue Man” Grandma is either very disturbing or very cool. [Side Salad]
  • Tom Verducci of SI.com says Ryan Howard has been neutralized late in games by left-handers and the numbers suggest it has been that way all season, hitting .139 in the 7th inning or later. Verducci also has a quote from David Price in which the rookie says that now that he has his first World Series game under his belt he will “be better next time”. Scary considering he wasn’t really that bad in his first appearance. [SI.com]
  • Tracy Ringolsby of Fox Sports thinks the Rays are getting lucky considering they chose not to send two top prospects to the Rockies for Brian Fuentes. Ringolsby feels that the emergence of David Price in the absence of Troy Percival is the equivalent of “the magic coach they have been riding” which could turn into a pumpkin. [Fox Sports]
Jul 08

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Magic Number Is 69

Al Reyes, Ben Zobrist, Brian Fuentes, Chuck LaMar, Dioner Navarro, Eric Hinske, Evan Longoria, Jeremy Hellickson, Joe Maddon, Scott Kazmir, Wade Davis, Wes Bankston Cork Gaines 1 Comment »



THE GOOD: Carlos Pena’s solo home run with 1 out in the bottom of the 9th inning to tie the game. Could this be the moment that gets El Gato back on track? Prior to that at bat, Pena had left 2 runners on in the 1st inning, 3 in the 2nd, 1 runner in the 4th and 2 more in the 6th.

THE BAD: Evan Longoria and Dan Wheeler in the 10th inning. You absolutely cannot lose that game. You are at home, going for a sweep against an inferior ball club and Carlos Pena had just bailed you out in the bottom of the 9th. You have to shut the Royals down in the 10th and give your team a shot to win. Longoria put Wheeler in a jam right off the bat with a throwing error that left the leadoff runner on 2nd and Wheeler gave up a 3-run home run to a guy who only had 3 coming into the game. This is one of those games that if the Rays miss the playoffs by a game or 2, we will look back and cringe.

THE TELLING: In order to give BJ Upton a day off, Joe Maddon penciled Carl Crawford into center field and CC was not happy about it…Reid Brignac did not play and is 0-4 with a walk and 3 strikeouts in his brief major league career…Remember that “reasonable goal” of a .500 season (81 wins)? The Rays need to go 27-47 over the remainder of the season in order to surpass that mark…Even though Boston has a 1.5 game lead in the Wild Card, the Rays magic number over the second place Twins is also 69 (for a playoff spot) as both the Twinkies and Red Sox have the same number of losses.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • We are back, if ever so briefly. On Thursday Mrs. Prof (no longer just figuratively) and I will be on our way to the Islands for a week. There will be updates while we are gone, although we are still working on the exact details. More to come in the next day or two.
  • The Rays have a 77.8% chance of making the playoffs this season. [The Heater]
  • Al Reyes threw a simluated game and says he is ready to come off the DL. [Herald-Tribune]
  • Dioner Navarro and Scott Kazmir were named to the AL All-Star squad and Dan Shanoff says the Rays got screwed by politics. [The Sporting News]
  • Evan Longoria still has a shot to be named to the final spot on the AL roster, and is currently leading the voting. [The Heater]
  • John Romano says that Joe Maddon should have been named an all-star coach. [St. Pete Times]
  • Marc Lancaster says the Rays are more likely to make a small move before the trade deadline, rather than go after some of the big names that are being tossed around right now…We agree. As we have stated before, our prediction is Eric Hinske for a utility infielder that is an upgrade over Ben Zobrist and possibly a relief pitcher to add to the bullpen depth. [Tampa Tribune]
  • The Rays appear to have interest in Brian Fuentes. Of course the Rockies want Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson. That doesn’t mean they will get one of those top pitching prospects. [The Heater]
  • Bill Madden says that with the Rays on top of the AL East, the Yankees and Red Sox lack the “spark” from years past. [NY Daily News]
  • The New York Daily News says the Rays are the new “beasts of the AL East.” [NY Daily News]
  • Richard Justice says that the Rays could be even better in the second half…While there is definitely room for improvement, it will be difficult to keep up this torrid pace of wins especially with more games on the road in the second half. [Yahoo! Sports]
  • Now that the Rays are on the lips of media outlets everywhere some are offended that the Rays are often referred to as the “Tampa Rays”. [St. Pete Times]
  • The Rays surpassed 1 million in attendance in their 48th game this season. That is second fastest in franchise history, out-paced only by the inaugural season. [Tampa Tribune]
  • A writer for the Aspen Times says the Rays are “not yet” this year’s Rockies (upstart World Series participant)…He is right. While the Rays may not make it to the World Series, this Rays squad is much better than the Rockies squad that got hot late and ran through a weak NL playoff field. [Aspen Times]
  • Marc Topkin lays out 5 keys to the Rays playoff hopes. [St. Pete Times]
  • Former Rays prospect Wes Bankston hit his first major league home run for the A’s. [MLB]
  • Former Rays GM Chuck LaMar would like to take credit for the Rays success. We don’t have the energy to give this it’s proper beatdown. [The Heater]
Jul 03

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Sweep Red Sox, Stretch Lead In East

Brian Fuentes, Carlos Delgado, CC Sabathia, David Ortiz, Dioner Navarro, Freddy Garcia, Johan Santana, JP Howell, Mitch Talbot, Troy Percival Cork Gaines 5 Comments »



THE GOOD: The 7th inning. Gary Glover was ginormous in the 7th with a man on second with no outs and Manny Being Manny up in a 4-1 game. There is a very big difference psychologically, between a 3-run lead and a 4-run lead. After working the count full on Ramirez, Glover got Manny to fly out to Gomes in right. He then got Mike Lowell to pop up to Carlos Pena who had to reach over the dugout railing. After an intentional walk, Jason Varitek went down on 3 pitches setting up the bottom of the 7th…In the bottom of the 7th Jason Bartlett did what he needed to do leading off the inning. The biggest reason Bartlett bats 9th is so Joe Maddon has 2 “leadoff” hitters in front off the heart of the lineup. Bartlett hit a double to right and got the rally started. And then in a very risky move, Bartlett stole third after getting a walking jump off second. Akinori Iwamura then beat the pitcher to the bag on a ground ball to first to score the first run of the 7th, and the Rally was on. The first 6 batters of the inning reached base. The big blow was a bases loaded 2-run double by Evan Longoria, of course (is it too early to start MVP chants at the Trop?)…The Top of the 9th saw several close calls. A great running grab by BJ Upton facing the wall in center field. A line drive by Jason Varitek that went just foul and then Dioner Navarro throwing out the tying run trying to steal second base. One of the more bone-headed base running plays we have seen in a while.

THE BAD: The Rays just swept the Boston Red Sox and now lead the AL East by 3.5 games. We repeat the Rays lead the AL East by 3.5 games with the best record in baseball. We dare you to try and come up with something bad.

THE TELLING: The Rays magic number to clinch a spot for the playoffs is 73 (3.5 lead over BOS, who has a 2-game lead in the Wild Card over MIN)

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • Mitch Talbot replaced Troy Percival on the roster when the closer went on the DL but Talbot is not expected to see much, in any playing time as he will be the Rays emergency relief pitcher. [Tampa Tribune]
  • Since 1995, only one team had the best record in baseball on July 1 and failed to make the playoffs. That was the ’06 Red Sox. [Sully Baseball]
  • Outs Per Swing offers their take on the recent rumors of the Rays interest in Rockies’ closer Brian Fuentes. [Outs Per Swing]
  • Outs Per Swing also wonders if Freddy Garcia is a better option for the Rays than CC Sabathia. [Outs Per Swing]
  • Earlier this week, we wrote that we thought Dioner Navarro was the Rays first-half MVP…Rays The Stakes counters with JP Howell. Their argument is solid, but we just can’t bring ourselves to give out an MVP honor to a middle reliever. [Rays the Stakes]
  • “10 reasons to hate the Red Sox”…We hate the Sox and their Pink Hat nation, but this article is a bit of a stretch as you can tell Tom Jones had a little trouble coming up with 10 reasons. In fact, the various stretches needed to be made actually had us defending the Sox as we read it and that is something we never want to do. [St. Pete Times]
  • Newsday comes up with “Top 10 reasons the Rays are for real.” [Newsday]
  • David Ortiz says the Yankees are still the team to beat for the AL East title…That is fine by us and should be great news for the Rays players. We much prefer that the Rays keep flying under the radar. [Boston Herald]
  • We love all the fans jumping on the Rays bandwagon, but this is one “fan” we are happy not to have. He is a Mets fan looking for a “secondary” team. He bashes the new surge in fans at the Trop and yet he is the one bailing on his team looking for a new team to root for. And of course he fails to realize that 90% of all fans become fans of teams when that team is good. We are willing to bet that this guy is in his mid- to late-20s meaning he was in his formative years when the Mets were the best team in the NL and the best team in NYC. It is Mets “fans” that actually booed Johan Santana on opening day in his first start for the Mets. And it was Mets “fans” that will regularly boo Carlos Delgado early in a game and then give him a standing ovation later in the game when he hits a home run. And then they wonder why he won’t come out for a curtain call. We are so glad to not be in the NL East. Mets fans make Red Sox fans look classy and that is not an easy thing to do. [200 Miles From the Citi]
  • It used to be the worst day of his life, but now Scott Kazmir calls his trade from the Mets “a blessing”. [NY Daily News]
Jun 25

[THE HANGOVER] Marlins Giftwrap The Rays 45th Win

Aki Iwamura, Brian Fuentes, Jason Bartlett, Joe Maddon, Troy Percival Cork Gaines 6 Comments »



THE GOOD: Aki Iwamura’s 2-run home run in the 3rd. How did that get out of the park? That looked like a lazy flyball off the bat. In fact, it was Aki’s 200th career home run…The Top of the 8th could very easily fall in the bad category if not for a little help from the Marlins. Down 1 with top of order up. Aki Iwamura did what he had to do. He got on base with a ground ball single through the right side. Willy Aybar then laid down a perfect drag bunt down the third base line that never went foul. Carl Crawford then tried to sacrifice the runners over or tried to drag bunt. Either way, it was a rare site to see CC try to bunt and it went foul. After fighting off several pitches, CC eventually hit a chopper in between first and second that was fielded by the first baseman. Crawford beat the pitcher to the bag to load the bases with no outs with BJ Upton and Evan Longoria due up. This should be 2 runs easy. Two batters later it is still bases loaded, 2 men are out and the Rays failed to score. Good times. But Dioner Navarro saved the day. While Upton swung and grounded into a force out on a questionable 3-1 pitch, Navi held up on a 3-2 pitch that was called ball-4 and the Rays tied the game. And then Eric Hinske followed with another bases loaded walk to take the lead. And that folks is why the Marlins are not long for the penant chase…The defense in the bottom of the 9th. With a 3 run lead and the bases loaded with only 1 out in the 9th, Evan Longoria dove to his left and barely snagged a ball and forced a runner at second. A run scored. But it would have been two with only 1 out and a man on third if Dirtbag doesn’t make that play. Then with the tying run on second and 2 outs, a ground ball between first and second is snagged by Aki Iwamura in shallow right field. He threw to first to end the game.

THE BAD: Andy Sonnanstine needed 102 pitches to get through 5 innings and was pulled early, again. This is the 6th straight start in which Sonnanstine could not finish at least 6 innings…Evan Longoria losing a pop up in the 4th inning and Jason Bartlett not getting there in time to make the play and letting a run score to tie the game at 2. That really should have been Bartlett’s ball all the way…Jorge Cantu hit what should have been a single on a ground ball into left center with a man on first. Only the ball went to the left of Carl Crawford’s glove and then bobbled by BJ Upton. The runner would score the go-ahead run all the way from first base…The Rays won another game in which Troy Percival sucked. This time he actually closed the door despite walking 4 batters in the 9th. Eventually the Rays are going to lose one of these games.

THE TELLING: Andy Sonnanstine sacrificed in the 5th. It is strange to see the Rays attempt a sac bunt. They are currently last in the majors in sac bunts, with 10…Troy Percival has the hardest 89 mph fatball we have ever seen. Is it a slow gun? An optical illusion? We have no idea. But it sure looks to be cooking a lot faster. And the batters seem to agree when he is in the strikezone…The Rays are only scoring 4.53 runs per game. Last year the Rays scored 4.83 runs per game.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • Don’t forget to VOTE for Carl Crawford to start the all-star game. If you haven’t voted yet today, go NOW! [MLB All-Star Voting]
  • Joe Maddon was none-to-pleased after the game, which is a sign that we are seeing a new Papa Joe. Last year he would have been dishing out sweet-nothings left and right after a game like this. [Rays Report]
  • Despite 4 walks, Troy Percival moved into sole possession of 9th place on the all-time saves list. To celebrate Bugs and Cranks gave Percy a new mustache. [Bugs and Cranks]
  • The Rays are expected to announce a 2-year delay in their push for a referrendum for a new stadium…The biggest hurdle appears to be the desire by the City Council to explore other locations for a new stadium. [Ballpark Frankness]
  • Jason Bartlett will miss the next two games to be with his wife who is expecting. Aki Iwamura is expected to begin serving his suspension on Friday when Bartlett returns…Also, Troy Percival says his hamstring is still bothering him and is the reason he is struggling with his control. [St. Pete Times]
  • Ken Rosenthal says that the Rays are one of several teams that are interested in Rockies closer Brian Fuentes, who is a free agent at the end of the year. [Fox Sports]