It all comes down to this. The Rays have 88 wins. The Red Sox have 89 wins. The Rays have three games left, at home, against the Yankees. The Red Sox have three games left in Baltimore.
If the Rays win one more game than the Red Sox in these next three days, they will play a one-game playoff at The Trop on Thursday. Here are the pitching matchups for the Rays that could determine who goes on, and who goes home…
Monday: James Shields vs Hector Noesi — Shields has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League this season. Noesi will be making just his second start of the year after 28 relief appearances. His only other start was last week against the Rays, giving up 2 runs in 2.2 innings. And then consider that the Yankees played 23 innings yesterday and did not arrive in Tampa until early this morning…Advantage Rays
Tuesday: Jeremy Hellickson vs Bartolo Colon — Hellboy is still not the strikeout pitcher we have been expecting, but he has been great in the second half. In 12 starts since the break, he has a 2.50 ERA and the Rays are 7-5 in those starts. In his last start, he took a loss against the Yankees, but only allowed 2 runs in 7 innings. Colon’s season has taken the opposite road. After a strong first half (3.20 ERA) Colon has regressed, posting a 5.09 second-half ERA. And in his last two starts, he has allowed 11 runs in just 7 innings total…Advantage Rays
Wednesday: David Price vs Undecided — We are not sure what to expect from Price. In his last nine starts, he has held the opposition to two runs or less eight times. But after working five straight starts of 7 innings or more, Price has failed to finish 7 innings in any of his last four starts. The Yankees won’t start CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, or Ivan Nova. And Phil Hughes is in the bullpen. We would be surprised if they used Freddy Garcia on the eve of the playoffs if he will be in the bullpen. And we don’t see anybody else on the active roster that has made a start this season. So no matter who the Yankees throw out there…Advantage Rays
Thursday (if necessary): Undecided vs Undecided — The two options for the Rays are Jeff Niemann, who worked just 1 inning on Saturday and would be on normal rest, or Matt Moore. This is just a hunch, but the Rays may be leaning towards Moore, unless he is needed in relief the next three days. If Moore is used before Thursday, the one-game playoff would look like Saturday’s game. That is, Niemann will start and Alex Torres will be ready to go if Niemann gets into any trouble. The Red Sox will use Josh Beckett and Eric Bedard in the first two games of the Orioles series. Jon Lester would go on Wednesday if the Sox have not clinched yet. That leaves Tim Wakefield for a potential one-game playoff…Push