Jan 18
[Update: 2:12pm] The Rays have signed Lance Cormier to a one-year, $675K contract. To make room on the 40-man, the Rays have designated Dewon Day, who they had just claimed on waivers last week. With the addition of Cormier, this tells us that the Rays now expect Troy Percival to start the season on the DL as all spots in the bullpen are spoken for.
[1:42pm] With the recent addition of Gabe Kapler, the Rays 2009 roster may be set. After the recent contract agreements with Gabe Gross and Grant Balfour, the payroll is also much clearer. Let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back later today with a look at the 25-man roster and lineup.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
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Jan 16
[Update: 2:12pm] The Rays have signed Lance Cormier to a one-year, $675K contract. To make room on the 40-man, the Rays have designated Dewon Day, who they had just claimed on waivers last week. With the addition of Cormier, this tells us that the Rays now expect Troy Percival to start the season on the DL as all spots in the bullpen are spoken for.
[1:42pm] With the recent addition of Gabe Kapler, the Rays 2009 roster may be set. After the recent contract agreements with Gabe Gross and Grant Balfour, the payroll is also much clearer. Let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back later today with a look at the 25-man roster and lineup.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today.
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster.
- There are currently 40 players on the 40-man roster.
- The Rays have reached agreements with two of their arbitration-eligible players (Gabe Gross, Grant Balfour). That leaves 3 arbitration players remaining (Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Willy Aybar). Salaries for those players are educated guestimations based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. The salaries are also based on one-year deals. If any of the players sign long-term extensions, their 2009 salary could be considerably different. So far we have been within $150K on the first two deals.
- The 40-man roster now projects to have 26 players on the 25-man roster. This is due to the belief that Troy Percival will begin the season on the DL.
- Troy Percival’s 2009 salary was bumped up by $445K due to escalators in his contract for appearing in 50 games and finishing 38.
- The Rays appear to be stuck with Troy Percival and Chad Bradford. Their $7.95 million combined salaries stick out like a sore thumb. One of those cartoon thumbs after somebody smacks it with a hammer.
- As a Rule 5 draft pick, Derek Rodriguez must be on the major league roster or be offered back to his original team. We don’t see a spot for Rodriguez, but we think the Rays will work out a deal to keep Rodriguez in the organization. It would likely cost the Rays a low-level minor leaguer or cash.
- The opening day payroll now projects to be $61.7 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $65.7 million.
- $61.7 million would have ranked the Rays 25th in payroll on opening day last year. The Rays opening day payroll in 2008 was $43.8 million.
- $60 million is most likely at the high-end of where the Rays want their payroll to be and may even be above the threshold. The Rays tried moving Chad Bradford but could not find any takers. Other possibles would be Carl Crawford and Gabe Gross.
- A year ago, the Rays projected to have 7 million dollar players. That number has now more than doubled to 16.
Jan 07
With the recent additions of Joe Nelson and Pat Burrell, let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back later today or tomorrow morning to look at the 25-man roster and lineup.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today.
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
- Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
- There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jae Kuk Ryu is out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for him on the 25-man roster.
- The Rays have 5 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for those players are educated guestimations based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. Anybody you think we are way off on?
- Troy Percival’s 2009 salary was bumped up by $445K due to escalators in his contract for appearing in 50 games and finishing 38.
- The Rays appear to be stuck with Troy Percival and Chad Bradford. Their $7.95 million combined salaries stick out like a sore thumb.
- As a Rule 5 draft pick, Derek Rodriguez must be on the major league roster or be offered back to his original team. We don’t see a spot for Rodriguez, but we think the Rays will work out a deal to keep Rodriguez in the organization. It would likely cost the Rays a low-level minor leaguer or cash.
- The opening day payroll now projects to be $60.3 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $64.3 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (DH) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro).
- $60 million is most likely at the high-end of where the Rays want their payroll to be and may even be above the threshold. If the Rays want to add another player (Gabe Kapler, Rocco Baldelli), they would most likely have to trade an existing contract. The Rays tried moving Chad Bradford but could not find any takers. Other possibles would be Carl Crawford and Gabe Gross.
- A year ago, the Rays projected to have 7 million dollar players. That number has now more than doubled to 15.
Dec 12
With a couple of recent changes to the 40-man roster let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection. We will be back in a little while to look at the 25-man roster and lineup.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today.
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
- Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
- There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu are out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster. We also don’t project Dan Johnson to be back with the Rays.
- The Rays have 6 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 5 of those players are guestimations at this point based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Jonny Gomes, will be non-tendered by the Rays.
- We previously had Dan Johnson as arbitration-eligible, but upon further review it appears he came up just short on service time. Also, we are surprised to learn that Willy Aybar is arbitration-eligible, which means he received a full year of major league service time in 2007 despite being suspended most of the season.
- Chad Bradford’s $3.5 million salary sticks out like a sore thumb.
- The opening day payroll now projects to be $51.9 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $55.9 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (DH) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro).
Nov 24
With the recent additions of Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Dale Thayer to the 40-man roster let’s update the 2009 40-man roster projection.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today.
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
- Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
- There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster. Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu are out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster. Although that can certainly change if Edwin Jackson or Jeff Niemann is traded. We also don’t project Dan Johnson to be back with the Rays.
- The Rays have 7 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 6 of those players are guestimations at this point. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Dan Johnson, will not be offered arbitration by the Rays. It also would not surprise us if the Rays decline to offer arbitration to Gomes. The latter is more likely if the Rays resign Rocco Baldelli to an incentive-laden contract.
- The opening day payroll projects to be $54.4 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $58.4 million. This amount will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field, bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money. The Rays could choose to trade Edwin Jackson, Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir. Keep in mind, it is the Rays M.O. to trade a player a year too early, rather than a year too late. The Rays could also save $4 million if Troy Percival decides to hang up the spikes, but recent comments indicate that he wants to play in 2009.
Nov 05
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster). We will be back later today with the 25-man roster projection…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
- Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09
- Several players in the minors will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter and either need to be added to the 40-man roster or risk being selected by another organization. This list includes Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Chris Mason, Eddie Morlan, Ryan Royster and Mike Wlodarczyk. McGee, Davis, and Morlan appear to be locks. We can’t see the Rays protecting the others although there are spots available. Most likely, those spots will go to free agents and/or players obtained via trades. Is there anybody in the minors that needs protecting that we are forgetting about? Let us know in the comments.
- The Rays have 7 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 6 of those players are guestimations at this point. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Dan Johnson, will not be offered arbitration by the Rays. It also would not surprise us if the Rays decline to offer arbitration to Gomes. The latter is more likely if the Rays resign Rocco Baldelli to an incentive-laden contract.
- The opening day payroll projects to be $54.5 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir. Keep in mind, it is the Rays M.O. to trade a player a year too early, rather than a year too late.
- Jason Hammel and Jae Kuk Ryu are also out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster.
Sep 09
We need to take our mind off the clusterf*** that is the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. It has been a while since we updated our 2009 roster projections so let’s take a look. First up is the 40-man roster projection, we will be back later today with the 25-man roster projection.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today
- Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster
- Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09
- Several players in the minors will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter and either need to be added to the 40-man roster or risk being selected by another organization. This list includes Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Chris Mason, Eddie Morlan, Ryan Royster and Mike Wlodarczyk. McGee*, Davis, Brignac and Morlan appear to be locks. The others are subjective. Also, anybody the Rays sign as a major league free agent will need a spot on the 40-man roster. When that happens, it will mean Mason, Royster and/or Wlodarczyk will not be protected on the 40-man roster. Is there anybody in the minors that needs protecting that we are forgetting about? Let us know in the comments.
- The Rays have 6 players that will be arbitration eligible following this season. Salaries for 4 of those players are guestimations at this point. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other 2 arbitration-eligible players, Jonny Gomes and Gabe Gross will not be offered arbitration by the Rays.
- We are projecting that the Rays will resign Rocco Baldelli to an incentive-laden contract.
- The opening day payroll projects to be $56.2 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Navarro). Look for the 2009 opening day payroll to be $60-65 million.
- In addition to Jonny Gomes and Gabe Gross, we project 4 other current members of the 40-man roster that will not be with the Rays in ’09. Eric Hinske is a free agent and unlikely to be resigned. Joel Guzman will be out of minor league options and we see no room for him on the 25-man roster. Jason Hammel is also out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for him on the 25-man roster. Andy Sonnanstine does have minor league options, but we feel that his value is high and will be traded (We will have more on this in the 25-man roster projection later today).
* The Rays may be eligible for an injury exception with McGee, giving the Rays an extra year before having to protect him on the 40-man roster.
Apr 21
Payroll to be at least $54 million and Andrew Friedman will have several tough decisions to make
It is an off-day in the Raysiverse, and with all the recent roster moves and contract extensions, we thought today would be a good day to look ahead to 2009. Roster projections are based only on players currently in the organization, lest we get fined for tampering from the league for talking about players in other organizations.
40-Man Roster Projection (notes can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 40-man roster projection
- Ages are as of today and shaded players do not project to be on the opening day roster.
- The biggest shake-up will come from that great draft class of 2004 as several of those players will have to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Players that have to be added to the roster include Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Chris Mason, Eduardo Morlan, Ryan Royster and Mike Wlodarczyk. The only player in that group that might be left exposed is Royster.
- The Rays have 8 players that will be arbitration eligible following this season. Salaries for those players are guestimations at this point and will be heavily influenced by how they perform this season.
- The opening day payroll projects to be $54.4 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (right field) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Kazmir, Garza). Look for the 2009 opening day payroll to be $60-65 million which is well within the range of playoff-caliber teams.
- This leaves 9 players in the current organization that will not be with the team in 2009. Three of these players are free agents and Al Reyes and Eric Hinske could both certainly be traded this season. Rocco Baldelli will almost certainly be back in the organization on an incentive-laiden minor league contract and thus not on the 40-man roster. Scott Dohmann, Joel Guzman, Nathan Haynes, Kurt Birkins and JK Ryu will be out of options and will either be traded or cut loose.
Now let’s take a look at what this means for the 25-man opening day roster (notes can be found following the roster)…
- There are 3 big question marks, right field, short stop and the starting rotation.
- We could see any of Jonny Gomes, Justin Ruggiano or Fernando Perez in right field. But most likely this is the one position that is likely to be filled from outside the organization.
- Jason Bartlett will most likely start the year at shortstop, but look for Reid Brignac to get similar treatment in ’09 as Evan Longoria got this year.
- The bench is completely up in the air. Ben Zobrist and Shawn Riggans might be locks.
- The top three spots in the rotation are safe. We know how much the team loves Edwin Jackson, and Jeff Niemann will be out of options. If Niemann is not in the rotation in ’09 then we can write him off as ever being a significant contributor.
- The bullpen is surprisingly set. Al Reyes will be gone and JP Howell will almost certainly be back. Andy Sonnanstine is in the bullpen if Jeff Niemann or Edwin Jackson is out. He is in the rotation if not with the final bullpen spot likely going to Scott Dohmann.
Feb 12
The 2008 40-man roster and payroll projection is based only players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.
Last week we took at the latest 25-man roster projection, and with pitchers and catchers set to report this week let’s update our 40-man roster and payroll projections.
Notes on the projections can be found after the roster…
A few notes on the 40-man roster and payroll projections…
- All of the Rays arbitration-eligible players have signed contracts and avoided arbitration.
- This roster and payroll projection is based on our 25-man roster projection in which Evan Longoria is in the minors, Josh Paul is the backup catcher and Scott Dohmann beats out Juan Salas for the final bullpen spot.
- Only five players on the 2007 opening day roster had a salary of at least $1 million (Carl Crawford, Casey Fossum, Akinori Iwamura, Jae Seo and Ty Wigginton). Only Fossum ($2.2 million) and Crawford ($4.0 million) made more than $2 million. This year, 12 players will make more than $1.0 million and nine of those will make more than $2.0 million.
Jan 22
The 2008 40-man roster and payroll projection is based only players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.
We are now less than a month away from Spring Training and after the recent flurry of contracts signings with the Rays arbitration-eligible players, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like and what the opening day payroll will be. Today we take a look at the projected 40-man roster and payroll. Tomorrow we will update our 25-man roster projection.
Notes on the projections can be found after the roster…
A few notes on the 40-man roster and payroll projections…
- The only salary that has the potential to be significantly different than that which we have listed is Mike DiFelice. We are assuming that the non-roster invitee will make the squad as the Rays backup catcher. DiFelice signed a minor league deal, but if he makes the roster it is unclear how much he would earn, but we can assume it would be in the $0.5-0.8 million range with plenty of incentives.
- All of the first, second and third year players salaries are estimates but should be in the neighborhood. Therefore, barring any further free agent signings/trades, the opening day payroll will be within $500,000 of our prediction of $42 million.
- That being said we can expect the Rays to sign a free agent left-handed relief pitcher. The salary for that player will be approximately $2 million, which would push the opening day payroll to approximately $44 million or about 57% greater than the 2007 opening day payroll .
- We have not followed the off-season moves of the Marlins, Pirates and Nationals, but $44 million would rank ahead of all three of those team’s 2007 opening day payroll.
- The next two teams on the payroll list, Arizona ($52 million) and Colorado ($54 million), both made the playoffs in 2007.
