It was an off-day yesterday (for the hitters), so let’s take a moment and update the 2011 roster and payroll projection. Notes on the projection can be found after the table…

Notes on the 40-man projection…

• A legend for the table can be found below after the jump.
• This projection is based on Read the rest of this entry »

It was an off-day yesterday, so let’s take a moment and take a very tentative look at the 2011 roster and payroll projection. Notes on the projection can be found after the table…

• A legend for the table can be found below after the jump.
• This projection is based only on players currently in the organization and assumes that no free agents will be re-signed. That list includes Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Grant Balfour, Pat Burrell, Gabe Kapler, Joaquin Benoit and Randy Choate.
• Here is what the 25-man roster would look like based on this projection.
• Players in white would be on the 25-man roster. Players in grey would be on the 40-man roster but in the minors.
• Salaries for players eligible for arbitration are based on salaries for comparable players in recent years. Those numbers should be in the ballpark but could fluctuate up or down depending on how well those players perform in 2010.
• Justin Ruggiano and John Jaso will be out of minor league options.
• Dioner Navarro is the only player that would still be under team control that we project to be gone next season either by trade or by declining to offer arbitration.
• Stuart Sternberg said the 2011 payroll will be under $60 million. As we can see the Rays are only committed to $48 million. So there is still some flexibility to possibly re-sign a player like Carlos Pena.
• The Rays could save $2.5 million by declining the option on Dan Wheeler’s contract ($1M buyout) and replacing him with a league minimum player. They can also save a little if they buyout Willy Aybar’s option and take him to arbitration instead.
• Another candidate to be moved would be Jason Bartlett. Replacing him at shortstop with Reid Brignac would save the Rays $4-5 million and would open a starting job for either Sean Rodriguez or Matt Joyce.
• The big name left off the 25-man roster is Jeremy Hellickson. Somebody will need to be traded or moved to the bullpen if the Rays want Hellboy to start the season in the rotation.
• The last three names on the list (Aneury Rodriguez, Matt Sweeney, Alex Cobb) are projected to be additions to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Anybody you think we overlooked?

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the opening day roster has been set, let’s take a look at the final 40-man roster and the opening day payroll…

A few notes on the 40-man roster…

• Once Elliot Johnson clears waivers the Rays will have 36 players on the 40-man roster. It is assumed that two of the empty spots will be taken by recent signees Leslie Anderson and Sergio Espinosa.
• The opening day payroll is $71.5 million, up from $63.3 million a year ago and double what the payroll was when Stuart Sternberg took over the Rays.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s take a moment and update the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’10.
• The Rays now have 38 players on the 40-man roster. Elliot Johnson is out of minor league options and we don’t see a spot on the big league roster for him. Barring an injury to one of the big leaguers, we expect Johnson to be removed from the 40-man roster at some point.
• The Rays had 10 players that were arbitration-eligible this off-season. The Rays non-tendered Gabe Gross and avoided arbitration with all of the rest except BJ Upton. His salary will be determined by an arbitrator and will either be $3.0 million or $3.3 million.
• Last season, the opening day payroll was $63.3 million, which was 25th out of 30 teams. With the addition of Rafael Soriano and the decision to keep Dioner Navarro (for now) the opening day payroll projects to be $72.1 million. That would have ranked 20th last year.
• Of the $72.1 million, more than half ($36.4m) is tied up in four players (Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, Rafael Soriano).

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

Earlier today we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09.
• The Rays now have 37 players on the 40-man roster. Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are out of minor league options and we don’t see a spot on the big league roster for either. We expect both players to be removed from the 40-man roster at some point.
• The Rays had 10 players that were arbitration-eligible this off-season. The Rays non-tendered Gabe Gross and avoided arbitration with Grant Balfour, Dioner Navarro, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate. Salaries for the remaining 5 arbitration players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats.
• With the addition of Rafael Soriano and the decision to keep Dioner Navarro (for now) the opening day payroll projects to be $71.1 million. Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for almost one-third of the 2010 payroll.

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

Earlier today we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in 2010.
• The Rays now have 40 players on the 40-man roster after the recent additions of Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Torres. However, Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are candidates to be traded or designated for assignment as they are out of minor league options and not likely to be on the big league roster unless somebody is injured. Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are both candidates to be non-tendered to traded.
• The Rays have 10 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 8 of those players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats. Last year, we missed the five arbitration cases by a total of $300K and nailed 2 right on the head. Anybody you think we are way off on?
• The opening day payroll projects to be $63.0 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Bartlett). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for about one-third of the 2010 payroll. We are including the $700K used to buy out team options. While not officially part of the payroll, it is certainly a cost that must be factored.

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

[Update] We have now updated this projection with the recent additions of Jesse Chavez and Ramon Ramirez to the 40-man roster. Both pitchers still have minor league options so at this time we are projecting that they will start the year in Durham. However, both pitchers will compete for roster spots in the Spring. Also, the Rays recently bought out two options at a total of $700K. While not officially part of the 2010 payroll, the Rays operate within a budget and it is a cost that cannot be ignored. Therefore, we choose to include the options as part of the 2010 payroll projection.

[Update] This projection has been updated to reflect the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. This move likely bumps Fernando Perez back to the minors and reduces the number of projected openings on the 40-man roster to five.

Yesterday we projected the 2010 25-man roster. Now let’s look at what that means for the 40-man roster and the opening day payroll.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in ’09 (actually, Dillon, Hernandez and Nelson have already been declared free agents).
• Several players in the minors will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter and either need to be added to the 40-man roster or risk being selected by another organization. This list includes Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, Aneury Rodriguez, Ryan Royster, Chris Nowak, Eduardo Morlan, Nevin Ashley and Ryan Reid. Jennings and Hellboy are locks. We have Rodriguez also being added. You could make a case for Morlan and Reid. If only three are added to the roster, that leaves 6 open slots, which would provide the Rays with a ton of roster flexibility when it comes to signing free agents or making trades.
• The Rays have 9 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 8 of those players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats. Last year, we missed the five arbitration cases by a total of $300K and nailed 2 right on the head. Anybody you think we are way off on? We are projecting that the other arbitration-eligible player, Gabe Gross, will not be offered arbitration by the Rays.
• The opening day payroll projects to be $62.0 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Bartlett). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for about one-third of the 2010 payroll.
• Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are out of minor league options and we do not see a spot for them on the 25-man roster, so they will have to be Designated For Assignment and placed on waivers before they can be demoted to the minors.

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ’10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

40-Man Roster and Payroll (notes on the roster can be found below the table)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today.
• Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and Aneury Rodriguez need to be added to the 40-man roster after the season to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Is there anybody else the Rays need to protect? Can you make an argument for Ryan Reid, Eddie Morlan or Matt Fields?
• We know this is not a very realistic projection, because Stuart Sternberg has already made it clear that the payroll will most likely go down next season. And as we can see, if all options are exercised, the Rays are already committed to $75-80 million, depending on how the arbitration-eligible players are handled. And that is after lopping off the contracts of Troy Percival and Chad Bradford, both of whom will be free agents after the season.
• So where can the Rays save money? The obvious answers are Carl Crawford and Aki Iwamura, both of whom have team options for the 2010 season. Trading those players or just declining the options would bring the payroll closer to the number that the Rays opened the 2009 season with (~$63 million).
• The other possibility would be trade Scott Kazmir, who is due $8 million next season. But we find it hard to believe that the Rays would trade a young lefty before his prime, and who is signed to a reasonable deal through 2012.
• So let’s hear it in the comments…your task: How do the Rays bring their payroll down to $55-60 million for the 2010 season?

Now that the 25-man roster has been finalized and the regular season is under way, let’s take a look at the opening day 40-man roster and payroll…

40-Man Roster and Payroll (notes on the roster can be found below the table)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today.
• There are currently 39 players on the 40-man roster.
• If needed, both Chad Bradford and Fernando Perez could be moved to the 60-day DL to open up a spot on the 40-man roster.
• The opening day payroll now projects to be $63.3 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $67.3 million.
• 63.3 million would have ranked the Rays 24th in payroll on opening day last year. The Rays opening day payroll in 2008 was $43.8 million.
• 16 players will make at least $1 million this season. That number was 12 on opening day last year.

We updated the 25-man roster projection last week when we first heard about the Brian Shouse signing. Now that we know how much he is making, let’s update the 40-man.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today.
• Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster.
• There are currently 40 players on the 40-man roster.
• Willy Aybar is the only remaining arbitration-eligible player. Salary for him was an educated guestimation based on contracts of similar arbitration-eligibles in the past few years. There are indications that the Rays are close to signing Aybar to an extension and avoiding arbitration.
• The 40-man roster now projects to have 27 players on the 25-man roster. This is due to the belief that Troy Percival and Chad Bradford will begin the season on the DL. However, there are some suggestions that Percival might be ready by opening day. We are skeptical, but will keep a close eye on that situation.
• As a Rule 5 draft pick, Derek Rodriguez must be on the major league roster or be offered back to his original team. We don’t see a spot for Rodriguez, but we think the Rays will work out a deal to keep Rodriguez in the organization. It would likely cost the Rays a low-level minor leaguer or cash.
• The opening day payroll now projects to be $62.7 million, but we also need to include Rocco Baldelli’s buyout ($4 million). While not technically part of the payroll, it is a cost that cannot be ignored. That brings the projected payroll up to $66.7 million.
• $62.7 million would have ranked the Rays 25th in payroll on opening day last year. The Rays opening day payroll in 2008 was $43.8 million.
• The Rays project to have 17 players making at least $1 million.