Jan 18
With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report, let’s take a look at what the opening day roster would look like if the season started today…
A few notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- For the first time in six years, we are projecting two starting lineups. It only makes sense with Maddon’s platoon mentality. As a result, we are projecting platoons at C, 1B, 2B and LF.
- LINEUP: Andrew Friedman says Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 23
Yesterday we projected the 40-man roster and payroll. Now let’s take a look at what the opening day roster would look like if the season started today…
A few notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- For the first time in six years, we are projecting two starting lineups. It only makes sense with Maddon’s platoon mentality. As a result, we are projecting platoons at C, 1B, 2B and DH.
- LINEUP: Andrew Friedman says Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 06
It is no secret that the Rays are facing a huge roster overhaul this off-season. Just how big? Let’s take a look at how much the roster has changed since opening day of the Rays’ 2008 World Series team…
Most of the discussion this off-season has been about how Andrew Friedman must completely rebuild the bullpen. But look at the position players. If we assume that Jason Bartlett will be traded before opening day (he will be), then BJ Upton is the only hitter from the 2008 opening day roster that will still be on the active roster in 2011. Yes, BJ Upton.
There is a chance Read the rest of this entry »
Oct 21
In a couple of weeks we will be neck-deep in free agency and trade season. So let’s take a very premature look at what the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like. Keep in mind that this is only based on players currently in the organization…
A few notes on the 25-man roster projection…
Aug 09
It was an off-day yesterday (for the hitters), so let’s take a moment and update the 2011 roster and payroll projection. Notes on the projection can be found after the table…
Notes on the 40-man projection…
May 04
It was an off-day yesterday, so let’s take a moment and take a very tentative look at the 2011 roster and payroll projection. Notes on the projection can be found after the table…
- A legend for the table can be found below after the jump.
- This projection is based only on players currently in the organization and assumes that no free agents will be re-signed. That list includes Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Grant Balfour, Pat Burrell, Gabe Kapler, Joaquin Benoit and Randy Choate.
- Here is what the 25-man roster would look like based on this projection.
- Players in white would be on the 25-man roster. Players in grey would be on the 40-man roster but in the minors.
- Salaries for players eligible for arbitration are based on salaries for comparable players in recent years. Those numbers should be in the ballpark but could fluctuate up or down depending on how well those players perform in 2010.
- Justin Ruggiano and John Jaso will be out of minor league options.
- Dioner Navarro is the only player that would still be under team control that we project to be gone next season either by trade or by declining to offer arbitration.
- Stuart Sternberg said the 2011 payroll will be under $60 million. As we can see the Rays are only committed to $48 million. So there is still some flexibility to possibly re-sign a player like Carlos Pena.
- The Rays could save $2.5 million by declining the option on Dan Wheeler’s contract ($1M buyout) and replacing him with a league minimum player. They can also save a little if they buyout Willy Aybar’s option and take him to arbitration instead.
- Another candidate to be moved would be Jason Bartlett. Replacing him at shortstop with Reid Brignac would save the Rays $4-5 million and would open a starting job for either Sean Rodriguez or Matt Joyce.
- The big name left off the 25-man roster is Jeremy Hellickson. Somebody will need to be traded or moved to the bullpen if the Rays want Hellboy to start the season in the rotation.
- The last three names on the list (Aneury Rodriguez, Matt Sweeney, Alex Cobb) are projected to be additions to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Anybody you think we overlooked?
Read the rest of this entry »
Apr 03
We have been projecting for many months, and now we finally now the Rays opening day roster…
Mar 31
With 6 days to go before opening day, the roster is starting to take shape, but there are still some questions to be answered. Let’s update the projected roster…
A few notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- LINEUP: It looks like Ben Zobrist will now get the bulk of the starts in RF against right-handed pitchers until Matt Joyce is healthy and ready for the big leagues. He will platoon with Gabe Kapler, who the Rays are obsesses with against lefties. Zobrist will play 2B when Kapler is in the lineup. The other half of the 2B platoon is likely to go to Sean Rodriguez even though Reid Brignac is better defensively. At catcher it sounds like each pitcher will be assigned one of the catchers to work with on a regular basis. That could change if either Dioner Navarro or Kelly Shoppach gets hot.
- BENCH: Dioner Navarro, who appears healthy enough for opening day, and Gabe Kapler will be part-time starters. One bench spot will go to Willy Aybar if he is healthy enough to play everyday. That leaves one spot for Reid Brignac or Hank Blalock. This decision could depend on whether the Rays are confident enough in Sean Rodriguez’ glove to play 2B on a regular basis.
- ROTATION: Wade Davis was given the 5th spot after it was determined that JP Howell would miss the first month or two. Andy Sonnanstine was deemed the better bullpen replacement.
- BULLPEN: With Andy Sonnanstine now in the bullpen, there is one spot still up for grabs and 2 guys on the roster with a shot. Joaquin Benoit is still the favorite, but he is yet to show that he can work back-to-back days. Mike Ekstrom appears to be plan B, unless the Rays can use somebody like Elliot Johnson (out of options) to pry a cheap reliever off a another team’s hands.
Mar 11
Yesterday, Joe Maddon indicated that Ben Zobrist will likely start the season platooning in both right field and at second base. Let’s take a look at what that means for the rest of the players competing for roster spots and playing time…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection…
If Gabe Kapler is on the opening day roster…
- RIGHT FIELD: Up until now, we have just assumed Gabe Kapler is on the opening day roster. If true, he will start versus lefties and Ben Zobrist starts versus righties.
- SECOND BASE: If Kapler is on the team Zobrist plays RF versus righties and 2B versus lefties. That leaves either Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac to play 2B versus righties. For their careers, Rodriguez is stronger versus lefties (.940 vs .881 OPS) and Brignac has been stronger facing righties (.778 vs .638). But Rodriguez’ mark versus RHP (.881) is still stronger than Brignac’s (.778). Brignac is considered the better defender. But Rodriguez has impressed with the glove so far this spring. Therefore, we give Rodriguez the edge.
- BENCH: If Sean Rodriguez is platooning at 2B and backing up the outfield, it would seem that Joe Maddon would want to also keep Reid Brignac as the back-up middle infielder. Also, if Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler are playing right field, there is no need for Matt Joyce.
- SUMMARY: If Gabe Kapler’s job is a lock and Ben Zobrist is platooning in RF and at 2B, that means Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac make the team and Matt Joyce is back in Durham. And spring training is a competition between Rodriguez and Brignac for a portion of the 2B job.
If Matt Joyce is on the opening day roster…
- RIGHT FIELD: If the Rays decide to keep Matt Joyce on the roster, there is likely no room for Gabe Kapler as the Rays would already have 2 guys playing right field and Sean Rodriguez who can back-up in the outfield. And if Joyce is on the roster, he starts in RF versus righties and Ben Zobrist is in RF versus lefties.
- SECOND BASE: If Ben Zobrist is in RF versus lefties, he will start at 2B versus righties. That leaves Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac to start at 2B versus lefties. And that is a no-brainer. Rodriguez’ career OPS versus LHP (.940) dwarfs Brignac’s (.638).
- BENCH: Again, with Ben Zobrist in RF part-time, there doesn’t seem to be a good reason to keep both Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler, so if Joyce is in, Kapler is out and the Rays will have to either eat his $1 million salary, or find a trade partner. That opens the final spot for Reid Brignac as the backup middle infielder.
- SUMMARY: If Matt Joyce is on the team, he platoons in RF with Ben Zobrist, and Sean Rodriguez platoons with Zobrist at 2B. Reid Brignac would get the final bench spot and Gabe Kapler is filing his unemployment papers.
Ultimately it looks like both Rodriguez and Brignac will make the team and the final spot will be between Kapler ad Joyce. Obviously Kapler has a huge edge as his contract is guaranteed, but it’s not like he is making Pat Burrell-money.
Mar 05
Now that spring games have started and we are four weeks from opening day, let’s take another look at the 25-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection…
- LINEUP: There are only two questions here. One is simple, one is not: 1) Will Kelly Shoppach or Dioner Navarro step up and command more starts once the season starts? If not, Joe Maddon will just play matchups every night; 2) Who will play 2B and RF? Gabe Kapler will start in RF versus lefties. Ben Zobrist will likely see time at both spots, but how much will depend on who else makes the roster. Specifically, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are likely competing for two spots. If Rodriguez and Brignac make the team, they could share 2B with Zobrist in RF most days. If Joyce makes the team, he will get a lot of starts in RF against RHP and either Rodriguez or Brignac will be the backup middle infielder. Got that?
- BENCH: Dioner Navarro, Willy Aybar and Gabe Kapler are the locks. Again, the last spot will be one of Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac.What we do know is that all four players on the bench will see a lot of playing time this season.
- ROTATION: The official stance is that the top four spots are locks and Wade Davis is competing with Andy Sonnanstine for the 5th spot. In reality, Davis will be in the rotation and Sonnanstine is likely back in Durham to serve as the emergency starter.
- BULLPEN: Six of the seven spots appear to be spoken for. The Rays brought in Joaquin Benoit to fill the seventh spot, but if he is not ready to work back-to-back days, this spot could go to Andy Sonnanstine. Dale Thayer or Winston Abreu could also be in the mix for this spot, but they are likely long-shots. If Benoit or Abreu takes this spot, the Rays will have to add them to the 40-man roster.
