Archive for the '11 Questions' Category

Aug 10

The Guilt of Not Going

11 Questions, Attendance, Cheap is as cheap does, Cutting the Fat, Exagerated headline, Fans do silly things, Jordi Scrubbings, Kool Aid, Meta-laziness, My Baseball Bias, No Excuses Tour, Options, The Trop, Things that shine a little less, Too early to open a beer?, Tweetup, We need more Cowbell, Where we're going, Your thoughts please Jordi Scrubbings 15 Comments »

Our correspondent Jordi Scrubbings is back with another take on all things Rays….

I’ll admit, when reported attendance numbers are below 15,000 at Tropicana Field, I feel kinda guilty. I feel guilty because I think I could make a difference. It’s the same guilt I feel during an election when there is a candidate I support but I don’t bother to get out and vote. And then that candidate doesn’t win. Was it because of me? Or was it because of hundreds of other people like me who figured someone else would carry the burden of voting?

Although the worst a candidate can do is raise my taxes, approve or disapprove of transportation measures, cancel programs, stifle the economy, or generally cause the social fabric of the world around me to fall apart, for some reason I am more concerned about an empty seat at Tropicana Field that my tuckus could have sat in.

I wonder if I am the only one. Am I the only person who thinks if the team moves it would be partially my fault for not supporting them to the utmost of my ability?

I am a huge baseball fan. The fact that I am writing here is evidence enough that I am a huge Rays fan. So why aren’t I at every game contributing my +1 to the attendance total?

First and foremost, I am a partial season ticket holder. I go to Read the rest of this entry »

Feb 28

[SPRING TRAINING] Rays’ Magic 8-Ball Answers 11 Spring Training Questions

11 Questions Cork Gaines 5 Comments »

The Rays return in 2008 with a much different lineup than that which started the 2007 campaign as only catcher and left field figure to have the same opening day starters. With most of the regular lineup set, there are still a number of questions concerning the Rays entering Spring Training. Let’s consult the Rays Magic 8-Ball…

  1. Will Scott Kazmir get enough of a Spring tune-up to be ready for opening day? Magic 8-ball says: What? You couldn’t start me off with an easy one? Kazmir wants to be on the hill opening day. The team wants to be careful. The team usually wins. At this point it doesn’t seem very likely that Kaz will pitch opening day. Even if he is pitching pain free, the team will be tentative about sending out their young ace on opening day in front of a sold-out crowd in Baltimore with 40 degree weather. Kazmir may overthrow with the extra bit of adrenaline that will be flowing. Look for Kazmir to be skipped in the rotation the first time through the order with 80-90 pitch limits placed on him the first 3-4 starts.

  2. Will Evan Longoria be in the lineup on March 31? Magic 8-ball says: America…Fuck yeah! Stuart Sternberg has said that the needs of the prospect outweigh the needs of the team, but it won’t take long for everybody on down to Joe Maddon and the waterboy to realize that the best third baseman in camp is Longoria, both on the field and off. They might as well start stocking Longoria jersey in the Trop shops.

  3. Who will fill out the back end of the rotation? Magic 8-ball says: Joe Maddon has stated that the ability to throw strikes on a consistent basis will go a long ways towards deciding the final two spots. I also know that Maddon does most of his evaluating on the previous season. That means that Andy Sonnanstine is a lock for the rotation. The final spot is a bit more dicey. Edwin Jackson has the edge over the other incumbent Jason Hammel, due to his 98mph fastball and a second-half in 2007 that at least showed that he is moving in the right direction. Still, he is going to need to show further progress in the Spring. Hammel is a long-shot at best. With 23 major league starts under his belt he has never shown that he can be a major league starting pitcher. JP Howell may be better suited for the ‘pen. That leaves Jeff Niemann as the only serious contender for Jackson’s spot. With no big league experience to gauge, Niemann will have to show Maddon that he can consistently throw strikes, consistently dominate major league hitters and show that he has the endurance to work late in games. If he can do that, look for Niemann to sneak past Jackson.

  4. Will Rocco Baldelli be able to handle an everyday role in right field? Magic 8-ball says: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA!

  5. How quickly will Akinori Iwamura adjust to life at second base? Magic 8-ball says: Aki may have said it best…If Wiggy can do it, Aki can do it. The only concern the team has at this point is turning double plays. This is not to be taken lightly, but as long as Aki makes sure of the first out, I am less concerned how long it takes him to get out of the way of the runner and safely deliver the ball to first base. Aki will be fine. Gold glove? Not in 2008. But it would not surprise me if he is at least considered for the award in 2009 or 2010.

  6. What happens to Jolly Guzbar if Evan Longoria is the opening day third baseman? Magic 8-ball says: One will be traded prior to opening day. With only four spots on the bench, three are spoken for: Jonny Gomes, Ben Zobrist and a backup catcher to be named later. If Longoria is the third baseman, that leaves one spot for Joel Guzman or Willy Aybar. Guzman has the glove, the pop and can play three infield positions and the corner outfield spots. Aybar is a switch-hitter. Has a solid OBP, but can only play third and second. Did I mention that both are out of options? The player to win the final spot may come down to which commands a bigger bounty in the trade market. Look for Aybar on the bench and Guzman on the Mariners with Edwin Jackson.

  7. Who will be the final two relief pitchers? Magic 8-ball says: We have come a long way in one year. Last year, the entire bullpen was up in the air and we actually thought Seth McClung was going to be the closer. And we were surprised the Rays only won 66 games?!? Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Trever Miller and Gary Glover are locks. That leaves two spots in the ‘pen. One spot will go to one of the starting pitchers with Jason Hammel (out of options) the likely choice. JP Howell also has a good shot. Juan Salas is still stuck in the D.R. with no end in sight. He also has a minor league option left, so he is out. That means the final spot will be a Spring battle between Scott Dohmann and Grant Balfour. Dohmann should win that battle easily, but don’t count out Brian Anderson, the veteran lefty has looked strong so far in camp.

  8. Can Shawn Riggans really win the backup catcher’s job? Magic 8-ball says: After all the talk of wanting a veteran backup to tutor Navarro, and signing two such backstops in Josh Paul and Mike DiFelice, one of whom is very familiar with the pitching staff (Paul), it amazes me that Joe Maddon says that Riggans is the favorite. This one is truly baffling and the one I seem to have the weakest grip on. When the smoke settles, I still think Paul will be the guy, but if Riggans has a strong spring, the job will be his.

  9. Can Fernando Perez play well enough in the spring to convince the Rays that he should be the first option out of Durham? Magic 8-ball says: It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when either Rocco Baldelli or Cliff Floyd lands on the DL. When that happens, the Rays’ first option will most likely be Justin Ruggiano who has a full year of AAA experience and a handful of games in the big leagues. However, if Perez can play well enough in the spring and get off to a hot start in Durham, the team could conceivably bypass Ruggiano for the more talented Perez. The real answer to this question will come if the Rays choose to give Perez playing time in right field in the spring. If they do. Perez is their guy.

  10. Do wins and losses in March matter for a team like the 2008 Rays? Magic 8-ball says: For those that say wins don’t matter in the spring. I say stop farting and blaming it on the dog. Last year, of the 8 playoff teams, seven had winning records in the spring, including the D-Backs that had the second best spring record at 20-12. Of the 17 teams that posted winning records in the spring, 11 finished the regular season above .500. The Rays went 10-19 in 2007. A winning record in the spring will go a long way towards building some confidence in the young squad.

  11. What other players should we watch closely this spring? Magic 8-ball says: The three names off the top of my dome are Mitch Talbot, Chris Mason and Elliot Johnson. Talbot and Johnson both entered 2007 as top prospects in the organization. Talbot got off to a rough start and Johnson played horribly all year. Talbot pitched better in the second half and needs to have a strong spring or he will become an after-thought in the minds of the men that count. Johnson’s drop-off in 2007 was too great to be due to a lack of skills alone. Outside of Akinori Iwamura, Johnson is the only other potential major league second baseman in the organization. Johnson needs to build on a strong AAA-playoff appearance or he will soon be forgotten. Mason is another question mark. AA’s pitcher of the year in 2007, not many look at Mason as a big-time prospect. He will be at Durham in 2008 and if he has a strong showing this spring we could see him make a spot-start with the Rays sometime in 2008. Keep in mind when a pitcher is needed from Durham, the decision is often based on who’s turn it would be to take the mound as much as talent.

Jun 20

11 Questions For Chad Orvella

11 Questions, Chad Orvella, Jim Hickey, Xavier Hernandez Cork Gaines 5 Comments »


Chad Orvella was recently sent to AAA Durham after 10 appearances with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In only his 4th full season as a pro, Orvella has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the Devil Rays, but has yet to achieve the same level of success he has experienced at the minor league level. In 169 innings as a minor leaguer, Orvella has a 1.49 ERA and has recorded 241 strikeouts and only 33 walks which equate to 12.8 K/9 and 7.3 K:BB. Those numbers are incredible at any level. Still, Orvella has struggled at the major league level. In 82.1 innings he has an ERA of 5.79 and has only recorded 66 strikeouts with 53 walks. His rates at the major league level have dropped to 7.2 K/9 and 1.2 K:BB. Since being back in Durham, he is back to his dominating ways, with 5 strikeouts and no walks in 3 appearances (3 ip). He has allowed only 1 hit.

In order to better understand the struggles of the young relief pitcher, we emailed him some questions. He emailed us some answers…

[our thoughts on Chad's comments follow the Q&A]

1. You were used sparingly as a pitcher at NC State. When did you first realize that your best chance of making it to the majors was as a pitcher and were you surprised that the Devil Rays drafted you with the intent of making you a full-time pitcher?

CO: When I went to the cape cod league I hit about .180 and realized I should probably get on the hill and scouts saw that I had a good arm and asked me to throw at a practice at NC State.

2. In only your fourth season as a full-time pitcher, you are still very early in your development. Explain how you work on your mechanics. Do you watch video of yourself or do you rely exclusively on the advice of the coaching staff?

CO: I’ve just started to watch video. It’s tough to work with a coaching staff because I’ve had so many different pitching coaches over the past four seasons. The one that’s seen me the most is Xavier Hernandez (Bulls current pitching coach) so if he has any advice I’ll listen to him.

3. This season you have worked with both Jim Hickey and Xavier Hernandez. How do their coaching styles differ? How are they similar?

CO: I think both of their styles are to be aggressive and be the aggressor as the pitcher. I haven’t really been able to work with Hickey too much but he seems like a good buy.

4. For a young pitcher that has bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors and from pitching coach to pitching coach, how do you adjust to the different environments and the many voices offering advice? How much do you lean on others besides your current pitching coach (other pitchers, catchers, former coaches, etc.)?

CO: You try to take a little advice from everybody and make it your own. Use what you can. Everybody has an opinion.

5. Dioner Navarro and Shawn Riggans are both talented catchers, but both are young. How important is it to a young pitcher and a young pitching staff to have a veteran like Josh Paul, in Tampa, or Raul Casanova earlier this season and Michel Hernandez now in Durham?

CO: I think it’s important because they may know some of the big league hitters, but having a catcher like Shawn Riggans, where he’s seen me throw for four years, I think is more important than having a veteran catcher that doesn’t know you at all.

6. After your most recent demotion, you once again were back to dominating hitters. It was reported that you discovered a flaw in the mechanics. If that was the case, what was the flaw and how was it discovered?

CO: Jamie Shields brought up an idea that my delivery has changed in the past couple years. A few years ago I used to squat down really low, in fact, the guys used to make fun of me because it looked like I was sitting in a chair. But I’ve gotten away from that and now my command has gotten worse. I’ve gone back to looking like I was crouching in a chair and it seems to be working.

7. When you do tweak your mechanics, how is the adjustment? Is it something that you are comfortable with and notice the improvement immediately or does it take getting used to?

CO: When I made this adjustment it was pretty quick. It’s just getting comfortable with it again. The biggest difference I see is in my off-speed stuff and how the hitters are reacting to that.

8. Have the Devil Rays indicated to you what you need to improve in order to be more consistent at the Major League level?

CO: They’ve just said that I need to be more consistent. I’ve always had a lot of success at Triple-A and throughout the minor leagues. They know I’ll do well here, but they’re sending me here to get more confidence.

9. In the minor leagues you have posted some prodigious strikeout totals and incredible strikeout to walk ratios. While it is not surprising that your strikeout totals have fallen at the major league level, it is surprising that you have struggled with your control. How would you explain the stark difference in your numbers from one level to the next?

CO: The strike zone is a little different. Calls that I might get in the minor leagues I don’t get up there. I think it just goes back to maintaining my aggressive style while in the big leagues and I’ve gotten away from that.

10. How would you describe pitching at the Trop? As a pitcher do you like pitching indoors? Does pitching so many games indoors make it difficult to adjust to games on the road? Would you consider it a hitters’ park or does it play fair?

CO: Pitching at the Trop is a little different. I don’t think anyone loves playing inside, but it’s something you get used to. It plays fair.

11. Who is one player on the Durham Bulls roster (pitcher or fielder) that may fly a bit under the prospect radar, but whom you think is on the verge of breaking out and will be a successful big leaguer?

CO: Jeff Ridgway. I think he’s got the stuff to be a very good big league pitcher. It’s just being consistent like everybody else. He’s on the verge of breaking out.


[Rays Index] We have been following Orvella’s progress for several years now and it is easy to forget that he has only been a pitcher for about five years. Also, looking back, Chad’s dominance at the minor league level may not have been the best scenario for his development. While it gave him confidence to succeed, it may have also provided a false sense of security. It is telling that a young pitcher still learning the craft is just now beginning to use video. That indicates, that up to this most recent struggle, he has relied completely on natural ability, and never learned how to work through adversity.

It is also worth noting that Orvella was on the major league roster for over a month and yet he says that he really hasn’t yet had a chance to work with Jim Hickey. We are no experts, but if a guy goes from 12 Ks per 9 innings to 7 and all of the sudden can’t find the strike zone after having impeccable control in the minors, the first thing we would do is dust off some videotape of Orvella from 2005 or 2006 and see if anything had changed. It is amazing that James Shields was the only person that noticed a change in Orvella’s mechanics.

Many, us included, have wondered aloud if Chad Orvella is a classic AAAA pitcher, with the ability to dominate the minor leagues, but without the stuff to succeed in the majors. Still, his minor league numbers are too impressive to write off and we need to remember that he is still learning how to pitch, how to succeed and how to handle adversity. If Al Reyes is traded before July 31 as we believe he will be, look for Orvella to emerge as either the Rays’ closer or 8th inning set-up guy in 2008.