Mar 23
With just two weeks until opening day, the Rays opening day roster is nearly set. Let’s take a look (notes on the projection are below)…
A few notes on this projection…
- LINEUP: Obviously Joe Maddon will still play matchups this season, but SS and C would appear to be the only natural platoons. Ben Zobrist will get an occasional start in RF, but he has been used almost exclusively at 2B this spring. And Matt Joyce has received the bulk of the playing time in RF. Also, Jeff Keppinger will get an occasional start at 1B against a tough lefty. The only real questions left would appear to be injuries. Will Reid Brignac start the year on the DL? Same goes for Luke Scott.
- BENCH: Outside of the two platoons, the final two bench spots will almost certainly be Read the rest of this entry »
Mar 21
The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
RAYS 3, Miami 2 (boxscore)
THE GOOD: Wade Davis. Is Big Dub was a lock for the rotation, he would have stayed back in Port Charlotte and pitched in a minor league game. But with his job very much on the line, he rode the bus to Jupiter and delivered 5 1-run innings with 5 Ks and no walks. It was just the big start he needed. But is it too little, too late?
THE BAD: Scrubs. Long road trips during the Spring usually end up in less-than-stellar lineups. And the Rays appeared to hit their MLB-mandated-minimum of 3 regulars in the starting lineup (Flash Jennings, Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce).
THE TELLING: BJ Upton played in a minor league game, his first action since colliding with Flash Jennings…Once again Jose Lobaton got the nod against the big leaguers and Chris Gimenez went against the scrubs. At this point, it would be shocking if LoboTron was not on the opening day roster…Two guys that are expected to be on the opening day bench (Elliot Johnson, Sam Fuld) got the start which bodes well for their shots at making the team…Robinson Chirinos is still battling concussion symptoms.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Quick reminder: Bobby Fenton is on 620AM this morning. If you love the Rays, you’ll enjoy listening to Fenton.
- Also, another Rays-friendly radio source, Toby David, is busy writing and podcasting on his website. There aren’t a lot of local voices that are Pro-Rays, but TD32 is one. And a little birdie told us he has a new show that will be starting soon. That is good news indeed. [TobyDavid.com]
- Ozzie Guillen on Joe Maddon: “That’s the way Joe Maddon Read the rest of this entry »
Mar 06
The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
Orioles 3, RAYS 1 (boxscore)
THE GOOD: Wade Davis. Big Dub is battling for a spot in the rotation, so there is no time to mess around and work on things. And his first outing showed that he is not messing around. One thing Davis can do is show that he is back to be more of a groundball pitcher like he was earlier in his career. And while it was just two innings yesterday, he had 3 groundballs, 2 flyballs and a strikeout, giving up just one hit. Good start.
THE BAD: Offense. Rays starters went 1-17, and the team as a whole didn’t pick up their second hit until the eighth inning. They finished with just 3 hits and 3 walks…Alex Cobb. 3 hits and 2 walks and had to be pulled with just 1 out in his second inning…Reid Brignac. His bat is what is keeping him from being an everyday shortstop. So it doesn’t help when Briggy boots an easy double-play ball. His glove is supposed to be his superior weapon.
THE TELLING: Now it is not even certain if Evan Longoria will be ready tomorrow. Longo says he needs another “day or so more“…Carlos Pena is expecting to play today…Sam Fuld and Luke Scott are both still on track to play by the end of the week…Matt Moore is expected to make his spring debut sometime next week…The Rays will be hanging a Wild Card 2011 banner to The Trop.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- We made an appearance on Justin Pawlowski’s debut show on 1010 Sports. You can listen to it here (we were in the “Around the Bay” segment. [CommishOnline]
- Evan Longoria shut down his batting practice early today. It looks like he won’t be ready to play today with Wednesday now more likely. [TampaBay.com]
- The Rays are no longer the only stadium in the big leagues with a fish tank. [BI Sports]
- The Rays are projected to have the best Read the rest of this entry »
Feb 21
The biggest storyline of the spring for the Rays will likely be the rotation and how the Rays will handle their seven big league starting pitchers. And the early favorite to be replaced in the rotation is Wade Davis.
We have already shown you that Davis is probably the weakest of the Rays starting pitchers. And some scouts recently told Buster Olney that Davis is much better suited for the bullpen than Jeff Niemann.
As for Davis, he doesn’t sound particularly thrilled about the idea.
First is this quote via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times in which Big Dub appears to hint that he would ask for a trade if moved to the bullpen…
“I’m a starter…I don’t see any reason for me to be in the bullpen. I understand they’ve got to do certain things, but we’ll see. … I definitely want to be a starter and stay a starter forever. And that’ll be my mentality”…Davis said there haven’t been any conversations — yet, anyway — with anyone from the Rays about possibly ending up in the bullpen. And if he is sent that way, he might end up approaching them, though he wouldn’t have much leverage to force a trade…”If it ever did come to that, it’s something we’d talk about then,” he said.
But later, Davis spoke with Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune and seemed to back-track from his comments… Read the rest of this entry »
Feb 02
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.
To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.
Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the above charts…
- James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
- Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
- Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
- Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
- Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
- Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.
Jan 10
One of the biggest concerns with young starting pitchers is their workload and easing them into a 200-ip season. The Rays typically prefer to limit their starters to a 20 percent increase in innings from one season to the next. If a pitcher exceeds that mark, they could be at a higher risk for injury or just a tired arm in the next season.
Last year, we saw the red flag with David Price, whose 221.1 innings pitches in 2010 was a 36.1 percent increase over the 2009 season. And while Price’s FIP improved from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2011, his ERA ballooned from 2.72 in 2010 to 3.49 last year. Was he just unlucky? Maybe. But Price also showed that at times last year, he tired late in games.
So let’s take a look at how much the pitcher’s were used in 2011 and if there are any red flags…
Maybe the most important thing we see in this table is that the Rays big-6 starting pitchers (David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore) are all free to throw Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 19
The Reds have found the starting pitcher they were looking for and paid a hefty ransom for him. Unfortunately, the trade wasn’t with the Rays.
The Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres. And to make matters worse, Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, were two of the four players sent to San Diego. The Padres also received Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger.
On first-look, it might seem that the Padres huge haul would be Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 19
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
Curious as to what the city of Miami is getting for their $2 billion? The Marlins new stadium is nearly done, and you can get a close-up look over at BI Sports. [BI Sports]
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Jose Lobaton has been sidelined from his winter league team due to weakness in his shoulder. The Rays don’t sound worried. But when do they ever? [TampaBay.com]
- It looks like the next big Japanese import is heading to the AL East, but not to the Yankees or Red Sox. [BI Sports]
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post says the Marlins are interested in Wade Davis. [@TroyRenck]
- According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are keeping their eye on Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 16
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
The Rays have announced that Neil Solondz, a broadcaster for the Durham Bulls, will be the new pre- and post-game radio voice for the Rays. Solondz is replacing Rich Herrera, who was a polarizing voice that most people seemed to either love or hate.
We haven’t heard too much of Solondz’ work. But based on the reactions we are hearing from Bulls fans, it sounds like a good move for the Rays.
This quote from one Bulls fan seems to sum up the reaction from Durham (via @RTPGiants)…
Nooooooooo….great for Neil; potentially terrible for Bulls fans. Neil is 5000% better than other MILB announcer
You can see a video below of Solondz interviewing Rays prospect Chris Archer.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Ken Rosenthal: James Shields “appears out of reach” for the Reds “and every other club.” Rosenthal also notes that the Reds “ideally want better” than Wade Davis. [@Ken_Rosenthal]
- Matt Moore was recently on “Happy Hour with JP Peterson” to discuss his new contract. Our favorite quote: “I’d love for this to be a bad deal for me.” [TampaBaySportsCentral]
- Andrew Friedman says Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 09
John Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer is reporting that the Rays and Reds are still discussing a potential deal, calling the deal “ongoing”…
The Reds have had ongoing talks with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Reds are likely targeting right-hander James Shields, who went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA last year. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, the Reds’ two top trading chips, are fits for the Rays…The Rays also may be willing to move Wade Davis (11-10, 4.45) or Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06).
Earlier this week, Joe Maddon confirmed that Yonder Alonso’s name has been part of the discussion.
That the two teams are still talking is a good sign that a deal could be close. Like we have always said, the Rays don’t usually budge too far from what they feel is a fair deal. If a team thinks the price is too high, then the Rays move on.
But if this deal does get done, we can’t imagine the Reds accepting Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for the prospects being mentioned.
