Feb 02
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.
To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.
Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the above charts…
- James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
- Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
- Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
- Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
- Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
- Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.
Jan 10
One of the biggest concerns with young starting pitchers is their workload and easing them into a 200-ip season. The Rays typically prefer to limit their starters to a 20 percent increase in innings from one season to the next. If a pitcher exceeds that mark, they could be at a higher risk for injury or just a tired arm in the next season.
Last year, we saw the red flag with David Price, whose 221.1 innings pitches in 2010 was a 36.1 percent increase over the 2009 season. And while Price’s FIP improved from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2011, his ERA ballooned from 2.72 in 2010 to 3.49 last year. Was he just unlucky? Maybe. But Price also showed that at times last year, he tired late in games.
So let’s take a look at how much the pitcher’s were used in 2011 and if there are any red flags…
Maybe the most important thing we see in this table is that the Rays big-6 starting pitchers (David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore) are all free to throw Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 19
The Reds have found the starting pitcher they were looking for and paid a hefty ransom for him. Unfortunately, the trade wasn’t with the Rays.
The Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres. And to make matters worse, Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, were two of the four players sent to San Diego. The Padres also received Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger.
On first-look, it might seem that the Padres huge haul would be Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 19
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
Curious as to what the city of Miami is getting for their $2 billion? The Marlins new stadium is nearly done, and you can get a close-up look over at BI Sports. [BI Sports]
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Jose Lobaton has been sidelined from his winter league team due to weakness in his shoulder. The Rays don’t sound worried. But when do they ever? [TampaBay.com]
- It looks like the next big Japanese import is heading to the AL East, but not to the Yankees or Red Sox. [BI Sports]
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post says the Marlins are interested in Wade Davis. [@TroyRenck]
- According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are keeping their eye on Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 16
- Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
The Rays have announced that Neil Solondz, a broadcaster for the Durham Bulls, will be the new pre- and post-game radio voice for the Rays. Solondz is replacing Rich Herrera, who was a polarizing voice that most people seemed to either love or hate.
We haven’t heard too much of Solondz’ work. But based on the reactions we are hearing from Bulls fans, it sounds like a good move for the Rays.
This quote from one Bulls fan seems to sum up the reaction from Durham (via @RTPGiants)…
Nooooooooo….great for Neil; potentially terrible for Bulls fans. Neil is 5000% better than other MILB announcer
You can see a video below of Solondz interviewing Rays prospect Chris Archer.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Ken Rosenthal: James Shields “appears out of reach” for the Reds “and every other club.” Rosenthal also notes that the Reds “ideally want better” than Wade Davis. [@Ken_Rosenthal]
- Matt Moore was recently on “Happy Hour with JP Peterson” to discuss his new contract. Our favorite quote: “I’d love for this to be a bad deal for me.” [TampaBaySportsCentral]
- Andrew Friedman says Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 09
John Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer is reporting that the Rays and Reds are still discussing a potential deal, calling the deal “ongoing”…
The Reds have had ongoing talks with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Reds are likely targeting right-hander James Shields, who went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA last year. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, the Reds’ two top trading chips, are fits for the Rays…The Rays also may be willing to move Wade Davis (11-10, 4.45) or Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06).
Earlier this week, Joe Maddon confirmed that Yonder Alonso’s name has been part of the discussion.
That the two teams are still talking is a good sign that a deal could be close. Like we have always said, the Rays don’t usually budge too far from what they feel is a fair deal. If a team thinks the price is too high, then the Rays move on.
But if this deal does get done, we can’t imagine the Reds accepting Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for the prospects being mentioned.
Dec 06
Will the Rays be willing to trade some of their players? Sure. But which ones. Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com weighs in…
- Jeff Niemann? Yes
- Wade Davis? Yes
- James Shields? Rays will only listen to “overwhelming offers”
- Reid Brignac? Would like to trade Briggy
- BJ Upton? “Willing to talk about”
Not really anything we didn’t already know. But it is a nice scorecard moving foreward. So there’s that.
Nov 16
We learned earlier today that the Rays would prefer to hold on to their starting pitching, something we have heard in the past. But now Troy Renck of the Denver Post says the Rays may just be waiting to make a move.
Renck says several teams are “letting the market breathe” before they decide whether they will trade a starting pitcher. The Rays and Marlins are two teams that Renck specifically mentions.
Renck also notes that the Rockies are looking for a “No. 3-type starter who can gulp quality innings,” and that the team has interest in both Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann.
Nov 07
Here is an interesting twist, and one we would prefer to the thought of trading James Shields. According to a “big league source” for Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Rays would prefer to trade Wade Davis over one of their other starting pitchers…
When all is said and done, the Rays are expected to be willing to deal Davis this offseason. While teams will ask for James Shields, and the Rays will listen, according to one major league source, Davis is the pitcher they will likely end up dealing for an outfielder or a catcher.
This has been our stance all along. The 2012 Rays are a better team with James Shields. And based on what we saw from Matt Moore at the end of the season, he is ready to join Shields, not replace him.
A rotation with Shields, Moore, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and either Davis, Jeff Niemann, or Alex Cobb, is far superior to one without Shields and/or Moore.
So at that point, it is just a matter of trading Niemann, Davis, or Cobb if somebody is going to be moved. And based on health history, contract, and experience, Davis is the one that will fetch the most in a trade.
Oct 01
As we all know by now rookie Matt Moore, making just his second big league start yesterday, shut down the Rangers with seven shutout innings in game one of the ALDS. But if Joe Maddon had his way, Moore would have never started the game.
According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Maddon and Andrew Friedman were divided on who to start in game one, and it was Friedman that championed for Moore…
Joe Maddon walked in late to a meeting. The rest of the Tampa Bay Rays ‘ brain trust – general manager Andrew Friedman, scouts and coaches – were already discussing who to start in Game 1 of the American League Division Series…One bloc wanted to start Matt Moore…The other group preferred Wade Davis…Davis started and won a potential elimination game last season against the Texas Rangers, the Rays’ foes again this year. He does not throw nearly as hard as Moore. Davis’ career high in strikeouts is 10, and he has gone at least five scoreless innings in only three of his 64 major league starts…Friedman wanted Moore…Maddon wanted Davis.
Maddon does say that he was Read the rest of this entry »
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
