The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: James Shields. Joe Maddon said it was the best performance he had ever seen from James Shields. Ever. Shields faced 28 batters on Sunday, retiring 22 of them. But none were bigger than striking out Alex Rodriguez to end the 7th inning. With only 1 runner on base, ARod couldn’t have tied the game, but if he had hit his 600th home run there, it would have made things a lot more interesting…Andrew Friedman. The only move Friedman made before the deadline was for a reliever with an ERA over 8.00. But that reliever can induce groundballs, and when the Rays needed a groundball in the 8th inning of a 3-run game, Chad Qualls delivered an inning-ending double-play. +1 for World B Friedman…Rodzilla. Sean Rodriguez once again proves that he is Ben Zobrist-Lite. With Pena leaving the game early on Saturday, Rodriguez  moved to first base for the first time as a professional and then made his first start at first base on Sunday.

THE BAD: 53. With 57 games to go, the Rays magic number to clinch the Wild Card is 53. Why is that bad? The Rays are in a great position, but there is a lot of baseball left to play.

THE TELLING: With Jeremy Hellickson making his big league debut tonight, The Rays are the last team in baseball to use a starting pitcher that was not in the rotation to start the season…This marked the first time since 2006 that the Rays shut out the Yankees. And it was just the fifth time all season the Yankees failed to score…In July, Tim Beckham hit .340 with a .466 OBP in 94 at bats. He posted an outstanding 19-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio…The Durham Bulls tied a franchise record with their 11th straight win…CoolStandings.com gives the Rays an 85.9% chance at making the playoffs. The Yankees are at 89.3% and the Red Sox at 17.7%.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 66-39, 1 game behind the Yankees in the East and 5.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. After 105 games in 2008, the Rays were 61-44.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• James Shields on his big game performance (Video). [The Heater]
• Prior to the trade deadline, the Rays got Read the rest of this entry »

On July 16, the Rays were set to open the second-half in Replica Yankee Stadium. Sean Rodriguez missed the game because a faulty splrinkler system flooded his condo the day before. He was then scheduled to take a flight on Friday and arrive in time for the game, but a mix-up caused Rodriguez to miss his flight.

Since then, Rodriguez has seen his playing time plummet. Prior to the All-Star break, Rodriguez had started 18 straight games. Since the second-half began, he has only started 3 of the Rays’ 12 games.

Of course, Rodriguez’ lack of playing time also coincides with a red-hot Reid Brignac. Since the break, Brignac has started 9 games and is 11-30 (.367) with 4 home runs. And it didn’t help Rodriguez’ case when Briggy Baseball hit 2 home runs in Rodriguez first game back from the flooded condo.

So maybe Maddon is just going with the hot bat. But it was Read the rest of this entry »

Here are the latest rumblings as we are now four days from the trade deadline…

• Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report BJ Upton is unlikely to be traded. That is not surprising, but what is telling is that the Rays apparently don’t think Desmond Jennings is ready. They also cite the dropoff in defensive ability from Upton to Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez. Rosenthal and Morosi also note that other teams have “heavy interest” in Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Wade Davis, but that the Rays would prefer to trade prospects. [Fox Sports]
• Jon Morosi reports that the Rays are interested in Chad Qualls from the Diamondbacks. Qualls has an 8.49 ERA in 41 appearances this season. His FIP is a lot better at 4.14 and he has been the victim of an attrocious .452 batting average on balls in play (it varies, but average BABIP is about .300). [Twitter]
• Meanwhile, Andrew Friedman spoke about the upcoming trade deadline and pretty much said nothing (standard). For example, when asked if the Rays preferred to acquire players that will be free agents or players that would be around a while, World B. Friedman responded: “blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah either” (we’re paraphrasing). [Rays Report]

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: The Offense. If you asked us before the game if we would take 4 runs in a game that both CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera would pitch, we would have taken that in a heartbeat. 9 hits and 4 walks is always a good night against those two…Grant Balfour. The Mad Australian had a little extra giddy-up on his fastball last night. His fastball was consistently 93-94, even hitting 95 once.

THE BAD: One Of Those Nights. As soon as the Rays took the lead, we just had a bad feeling about the dramatic tone that was being sent over the entire evening…BJ Upton. Earlier in the game, Bossman made a great slide into 3rd base on a basehit by Carl Crawford. He would score the go-ahead run later in the inning. But any “good” was erased by what happened in the 9th. Read the rest of this entry »

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: Good Starts. After a game like that, about all we can hang our hat on is that the Braves are a good squad and the Rays weren’t going to sweep. And while things are tightening up in the East, the Rays still have the best record in baseball.

THE BAD: 2-Out Scoring. The Braves first 3 runs all came with 2 outs in the 3rd. With the way the Rays were hitting, that inning was the end of the game…Gone Cold. The 8 starting hitters went a combined 3-26 with 1 double, 2 walks and 8 strikeouts.

THE TELLING: Dioner Navarro played for the first time since June 9, pinch-hitting and getting an RBI double…Jason Bartlett was back in the lineup after being activated from the DL. He was 0-2…Sean Rodriguez went hitless for the first time in 16 games.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 41-24, tied with the Yankees for first in the AL East and 3 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. After 65 games in 2008, the Rays were 38-27.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Wade Davis talks about last night’s loss. He used the word “sucks” a lot (video). [The Heater]
• The Pirates have designated Akinori Iwamura for assignment, meaning they have 10 days to trade him or they will have to release him. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• RotoProfessor takes a closer look at Sean Rodriguez’ numbers and projects what he could do over a full season. [Roto Professor]
• The Rays announced the signings of a bunch of draftees from the 13th round and later. [MLB]

DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Check out Rays Prospects for boxscores and more detailed recaps. [Rays Prospects]
• DURHAM: (no game scheduled)
• MONTGOMERY: Alex Torres struck out 7 and walked 2 in 5 innings. He allowed 1 run on 3 hits…Nevin Ashley was 2-5 with a walk and 2 RBI.
• CHARLOTTE: Nick Barnese allowed 1 run in 5 innings with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts…Tim Beckham was 0-5 with 2 strikeouts.
• BOWLING GREEN: Aaron Dott took the loss after giving up 8 runs (7 earned) in just 3 innings…Chris Murrill was 103 with a walk and stole his 26th base.

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: David Price Was Pumped Up. King David’s parents helped arrange for about 250 people to be at last night’s game from Price’s hometown. We have to wonder if that explained Price’s juiced up fastball. He was regularly hitting 97 and 98 on the gun with his 4-seem fastball, a pitch that typically averages about 95. Still, the results were about the same. A good, not great, outing with 3 runs allowed on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings. But he struck out 7, survived a couple of jams and picked up his 10th win. Price allowed runners into scoring position in each inning and even survived a bases loaded, no out situation in the second with 2 Ks and a groundball…Sean Rodriguez. His 2-run double in the first extended his hitting streak to 15. He also ended the third with a great sliding grab in foul territory. Jason Bartlett might start tonight, but we have to think his days as an everyday player with the Rays are over.

THE BAD: National League Rules. We used to be biggest defender of letting pitchers hit, but in recent years we have come to our senses. Letting pitchers hit is like making Martin Gramatica play QB once every 9 plays. Sure it adds to the “strategy,” but that doesn’t mean it is a better game. And sure the kicker could just hand off a lot. But sometimes it is going to be 3rd and 12. Kinda like how 3 times last night David Price came to the plate with runners on base and 2 outs. What a waste…John Jaso’s D. Rough night for Jaso behind the plate as all 3 runs off of David Price might have been prevented by a better catcher. Price was charged with 2 wild pitches. One should have been caught and the other should have easily been blocked. And in the 5th, Jaso missed the second base bag by 10 feet trying to throw out a basestealer. That runner scored when the next batter singled.

THE TELLING: The start of the game was delayed two and a half hours due to rain…Dioner Navarro received a cortisone shot and says he is now ready to play…Jason Bartlett’s second rehab start was rained out…For a couple of hours, the Rays were in second place a half-game behind the Yankees. It was the first time the Rays were not in first place since the first day of the season when the Rays did not play.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 41-23 tied with the Yankees in the AL East and 4 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. After 64 games in 2008, the Rays were 38-26.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• David Price talks about last night’s win (video). [The Heater]
• The Rays other second round pick, Jacob Thompson, a pitcher from Long Beach State, is expected to sign today. [The Heater]
• Joel Sherman writes that the Yankees might not need Carl Crawford next year. [NY Post]
• The Mets drafted Cory Vaughn in the 4th round this year. He is the son of former Devil Ray Greg Vaughn…Personally, we were a little disappointed the Rays didn’t get the younger Vaughn. Not because we think he is a great prospect. But because his family owes the Rays a few years of cheap labor. [Mets Blog]

DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Check out “The Rundown” from Rays Prospects for boxscores and more detailed recaps. [Rays Prospects]
• DURHAM: (postponed, rain)
• MONTGOMERY: (no game scheduled)
• CHARLOTTE: Matt Moore had his best start of the year, striking out 9, walking 1 and allowing just 2 hits in 6 shutout innings. The win improved his record to 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA…Stephen Vogt went 3-5 for the second straight night.
• BOWLING GREEN: Kyle Lobstein pitched a 7-inning complete game in the first game, allowing 8 hits, striking out 6 and walking none…Alex Colome gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings in the nightcap. He struck out 6.

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: Sean Rodriguez. Rodzilla was 3-3 on Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 14 games. In that span, he is 21-49 (.429) with 5 doubles and 3 home runs. We think the Rays are running out of excuses to *not* have a Brignac-Rodriguez starting middle infield…Carlos Pena. Unfortunately, Pena did not homer on Sunday. But that marked the first time he failed to homer in a game since last Saturday a streak of 6 straight games with a home run. During that span, Pena was 10-27 with 7 home runs and 10 RBI.

THE BAD: Nobody To GTMI. Of Carlos Pena’s 7 home runs in 6 games, the grand slam against the Blue Jays was the only one that wasn’t a solo shot…Bad Inning James. On Friday, James Shields walked 3 batters in the Marlins 5-run 3rd inning. How rare was that? Only 6 times in his career has Shields walked more than 3 in an entire game. And only 1 time has he walked more than 4…Bobblehead Bartlett. Sunday was Jason Bartlett Bobblehead day. Unfortunately the Rays didn’t trade those bobbleheads and substitute a Reid Brignac Bobblehead...Kevin Kennedy Hurts My Brain. On one particular play Saturday night, a play Dewayne Staats and Kevin Kennedy spent way too much time praising, a ball hit high off the wall and past BJ Upton. Kennedy noted that Upton “would have caught that if it wasn’t so high up.” Yeah, and I could do a 360° dunk if the rim wasn’t so high.

THE TELLING: Jason Bartlett will play rehab games for Durham today and tomorrow. He will likely be activated on Wednesday. At that point the Rays will likely place Dioner Navarro on the DL with a sore left roster spot. Navi hasn’t played since Wednesday. After his DL stint, Navi will almost certainly need an extended “rehab” stint at Durham…Sunday was Jeff Niemann’s first loss at home in over a year…Evan Longoria has reached base in 31 straight games, the longest current streak in baseball…On Saturday, Jeremy Hall of Montgomery extended his scoreless innings streak to 35 before giving up 2 runs in the 6th inning…Pat Burrell hit his first home run for the Giants on Friday. He is 9-24 since switching back to the NL.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are tied with the Yankees at 40-23 and are 4 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. After 63 games in 2008, the Rays were 37-26.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Jeff Niemann talks about yesterday’s performance. [The Heater]
• Roger Mooney reports that Rocco Baldelli threw longtoss prior to Sunday’s game…It has been his ability to throw that has limited his efforts to return to the big leagues. [Tampa Tribune]
• Rays first-round draft pick Justin O’Connor will say thank you to his hometown tonight by signing autographs for free for area little leaguers. [Star-Press]
• Stacy Long writes about how Matt Sweeney has shortened his swing and become more selective at the plate. Sweeney was one of the pieces of last summer’s Scott Kazmir trade. [Montgomery Advertiser]
• Former Rays reliever Joe Nelson is pondering retirement after being designated for assignment by the Red Sox. [MLB]
• A look at how David Price uses his fastball. [DRaysBay]
• Prospect Henry Wrigley won the FSL home run derby. [Twitter]

DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Check out Rays Prospects for boxscores and more detailed recaps. [Rays Prospects]
• DURHAM: Carlos Hernandez gave up 5 runs in 5 innings…Desmond Jennings was 2-4 with a triple, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI. He is now 14-26 in his last 6 games and has raised his average to .279…Matt Joyce was 5-5 with 3 doubles and 2 RBI and raised his average to .313.
• MONTGOMERY: Jake McGee struck out 5 and walked 1 in 6 innings. He gave up 1 run on 5 hits for his second win…Matt Sweeney hit a 2-run home run for Montgomery, his first home run since being promoted.
• CHARLOTTE: (no game scheduled)
• BOWLING GREEN: Kirby Yates’ first start of the year was an impressive effort. He struck out 8, walked 3 and allowed just 1 hit in 4 innings…

The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.

click above image for boxscore

THE GOOD: Maddonology 101. Shaun Marcum is a right-hander, but Joe Maddon calls him a lefty in disguise. So JoeMa loaded his lineup with right-handed bats and even had Kelly Shoppach batting clean-up. The result? Righties went 9-13 versus Marcum and lefties went 1-7…Top O’ The Order To Ya. The Rays starting 1-6 hitters were a combined 12-23…Yep, Sauciness. Carlos Pena hit another home run, his 4th in 3 days. Think about how good this team could be if Pena was actually mashing on a consistent basis. Yep. This could get fun…Sean Rodriguez. With a 3-4 showing last night, Rodzilla now has a 10-game hitting streak. Over that span, he is 14-34 (.412) and has raised his average from .197 to .264. OK, maybe we’ll keep him…BJ Upton. Last night he was on base 3 more times. And as a leadoff hitter this season, he has been on base 12 times in 25 plate appearances (.480)…Evan Longoria. We don’t put Dirtbag in this category nearly often enough. It is as though we just expect him to be great (that’s not necessarily a bad thing). Last night he had 3 hits to raise his season average to .326. And his double-play to end the 5th inning (above) was a thing a of beauty…David Price. King David is now 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA in 6 career starts versus the Blue Jays. Last night he did have to fight through some jams. Price did not have a 1-2-3 all night and in the 4th he loaded the bases with 1 out. He got out of it with a strikeout and a broken bat grounder.

THE BAD: Scoring. The Blue Jays were averaging 5.2 runs per game prior to this series. Rays pitchers have allowed the Blue Jays to score 1 run in the first two games. How is this bad for the Rays? It is not. But it is for the Jays and that’s all we got today.

THE TELLING: Last night’s attendance was 15,886…David Price leads the AL in wins (9) and ERA (2.23). According to JB Long of Bay9News, Price is the youngest player to lead both categories this late in the season in 23 years (Bret Saberhagen, ’87). Any chance Joe Girardi will pick King David to start the all-star game over Phil Hughes? Yeah, we didn’t think so either…David Price is on pace to win 25 games…Carlos Pena’s home run was his 128th as a Ray, tying Aubrey Huff’s franchise record.

WHERE THEY STAND: The Rays are 39-20, 2 games ahead of the Yankees and 5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. After 59 games in 2008, the Rays were 35-24.

THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• David Price talks about last night’s start (video). [The Heater]
• Joe Smith writes about the adjustments that Sean Rodriguez has made working with Derek Shelton. [St. Pete Times]
• The man with the magical graphs, one of our favorites, Ricky Zanker made his debut (we think) with The Hardball Times. Take a look at the graph for Carlos Pena. Your eyes do not deceive you. All of his hits are either down the right field line or to the opposite field. [The Hardball Times]
• Yesterday we told you about Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis and their fishing trip. Here is a video excerpt…But what we want to know is: what is up with the guys hiding their faces? It is kinda creepin’ us out. Why are they wearing masks? Were they burned by acid or something? Did they tell their wives they were on a business trip? [FS Florida]
• If you are going to put together a tourism brochure for the Bay Area, it would help if you could at least get the name of the baseball team correct. [Tampa Tribune]
• It has already been deleted, but here is a strange one for you to ponder: “Is it possible that Joe Maddon brought a steroid culture with him to the Rays?” [Yahoo! Answers]
• One writer gave the Rays an A+ for their draft (thanks Connie). [Bleacher Report]

DOWN ON THE FARM…

• Check out “The Rundown” from Rays Prospects for boxscores and more detailed recaps. [Rays Prospects]
• DURHAM: Jeremy Hellickson struck out 8, but was pulled after just 4.2 innings with 101 pitches. He gave up 3 runs, including a solo home run, on 7 hits and 2 walks…Matt Joyce was 2-3 with 2 walks…Desmond Jennings did not play.
• MONTGOMERY: Alex Cobb improved to 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA in 6 starts. He threw 6.2 shutout innings, striking out 6 and walking none. He gave up just 3 hits…Matt Sweeney went 2-3 with a double.
• CHARLOTTE: Shane Dyer gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 6 innings in game 1…Chris Andujar improved to 5-1 with 5 innings and 2 runs allowed…Tim Beckham was 1-6 with 2 strikeouts in the double-header.
• BOWLING GREEN: Kyle Lobstein struck out 5 and walked 5 in 4.2 innings. He allowed 3 runs (1 earned) and just 1 hit in the first game…Alex Colome was touched for 4 runs in 6 innings. He struck out 4 and walked 2 during game 2.

Earlier today we took a look at which Rays are hitting well and who isn’t. Now let’s look at who has been lucky and who could use an adjustment to their superstitious routines.

To do this, we are going to compare BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) to each player’s expected BABIP (xBABIP). Basically, xBABIP looks at things like contact rate, speed, line drive rate, groundballs and flyballs and tries to determine how often a player should be getting base hits when they hit the ball fair. If a players xBABIP is significantly lower than their actual BABIP, that is a good indication that the player has been unlucky. In other words, he is hitting better than his stats might indicate. For example, maybe more line drives are being caught by fielders than would be expected (check this link for an explanation of xBABIP).

Notes on the table are below…

Notes on the table…

• “Luck” in this case is defined as the difference between a player’s actual BABIP and their expected BABIP (xBABIP).
• We divided the players into three groups using arbitrary boundaries. Basically, anybody with a BABIP 40 points higher than expected has been lucky and anybody with a BABIP 40 points lower than expected has been unlucky.
• We can ignore Kelly Shoppach’s numbers due to such a small sample size.
• The Rays three best hitters (Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, Ben Zobrist) have all been a little lucky. That makes it hard not to wonder if good players have the ability to create their own “luck.”
• Sean Rodriguez has actually been lucky, despite relatively poor numbers so far this season. This tells us, a demotion could be coming soon.
• Carlos Pena has the worst BABIP and the worst luck on the team. This is probably due in part to all the shifts that he faces.
• Dioner Navarro has been a bit unlucky, but he also has the second-lowest expected BABIP on the team. This might surprise you, but Navi is not a very good hitter.

We are one-third of the way through the season. Let’s take a look at how some of the Rays hitters are performing in terms of wOBA. If you are not familiar with wOBA, just think OPS, but better (check this link for a quick explanation).

Notes on the table are below…

Notes on the table…

• wOBA is on an OBP scale which makes it easier to get an idea of what is good and what is not good. The cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary but generally, .380 and above is excellent and anything below .330 is not very good.
• The Rays as a team have a wOBA of .333, which ranks 6th in the AL. It also happens to rank 4th in the AL East.
• A couple of names that stick out are John Jaso and Dioner Navarro. We have been a bit harsh on Jaso’s defense recently. That was more of an FYI. There is no way the Rays can demote a guy with a .385 wOBA. Not happening. We are just going to have to live with the defense and hope it gets better.
• Sean Rodriguez had a big hit the other night, but overall he is having a rough season. One has to wonder if he is the odd-man out should the Rays decide Matt Joyce is ready to be promoted.
• Obviously wOBA for players like Kelly Shoppach and Hank Blalock mean little or nothing due to such a small sample.
• Yesterday, Steve Slowinski of DRays Bay took a look at how wOBA has fluctuated during the season for some of these players. [DRays Bay]