Feb 03
The Rays won yesterday’s arbitration hearing with Jeff Niemann, who will now make $2.75 million in 2012. The Giraffe had been seeking $3.2 million. The Rays have never lost an arbitration case, moving to 6-0 overall, and 5-0 since Andrew Friedman was named VP of Baseball Operations.
Niemann’s 2012 salary lowers the Rays 2012 projected payroll to $64.3 million. This of course means more money for World Series rings!
Feb 02
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.
To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.
Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the above charts…
- James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
- Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
- Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
- Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
- Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
- Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.
Jan 17
Earlier today, the Rays reached agreements on one-year deals with three of their four remaining arbitration-eligible players. The fourth, Jeff Niemann, will have his 2012 salary determined by an arbitrator.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is reporting that Niemann is asking for $3.2 million. The Rays are offering $2.75 million, a difference of just $450,000. And while not many teams would risk going to arbitration over $450,000, the Rays are one.
Niemann was projected to make $3.1 million through arbitration. However, the Rays are 4-0 when cases go to arbitration.
Jan 10
One of the biggest concerns with young starting pitchers is their workload and easing them into a 200-ip season. The Rays typically prefer to limit their starters to a 20 percent increase in innings from one season to the next. If a pitcher exceeds that mark, they could be at a higher risk for injury or just a tired arm in the next season.
Last year, we saw the red flag with David Price, whose 221.1 innings pitches in 2010 was a 36.1 percent increase over the 2009 season. And while Price’s FIP improved from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2011, his ERA ballooned from 2.72 in 2010 to 3.49 last year. Was he just unlucky? Maybe. But Price also showed that at times last year, he tired late in games.
So let’s take a look at how much the pitcher’s were used in 2011 and if there are any red flags…
Maybe the most important thing we see in this table is that the Rays big-6 starting pitchers (David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore) are all free to throw Read the rest of this entry »
Dec 09
John Fay of the Cincinnati Inquirer is reporting that the Rays and Reds are still discussing a potential deal, calling the deal “ongoing”…
The Reds have had ongoing talks with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Reds are likely targeting right-hander James Shields, who went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA last year. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, the Reds’ two top trading chips, are fits for the Rays…The Rays also may be willing to move Wade Davis (11-10, 4.45) or Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.06).
Earlier this week, Joe Maddon confirmed that Yonder Alonso’s name has been part of the discussion.
That the two teams are still talking is a good sign that a deal could be close. Like we have always said, the Rays don’t usually budge too far from what they feel is a fair deal. If a team thinks the price is too high, then the Rays move on.
But if this deal does get done, we can’t imagine the Reds accepting Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for the prospects being mentioned.
Dec 06
Will the Rays be willing to trade some of their players? Sure. But which ones. Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com weighs in…
- Jeff Niemann? Yes
- Wade Davis? Yes
- James Shields? Rays will only listen to “overwhelming offers”
- Reid Brignac? Would like to trade Briggy
- BJ Upton? “Willing to talk about”
Not really anything we didn’t already know. But it is a nice scorecard moving foreward. So there’s that.
Nov 16
We learned earlier today that the Rays would prefer to hold on to their starting pitching, something we have heard in the past. But now Troy Renck of the Denver Post says the Rays may just be waiting to make a move.
Renck says several teams are “letting the market breathe” before they decide whether they will trade a starting pitcher. The Rays and Marlins are two teams that Renck specifically mentions.
Renck also notes that the Rockies are looking for a “No. 3-type starter who can gulp quality innings,” and that the team has interest in both Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann.
Oct 04
- Rangers 4, Rays 3 (click image for boxscore)
The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
THE GOOD: David Price. There were concerns about Price heading into this game and whether he could be counted on in a big game. As far as we’re concerned, Price came through big time. He held the lethal Rangers offense scoreless for six innings before finally yielding a home run in the 7th inning. Loss was not his fault…Desmond Jennings. Flash struggled in September. October seems to suit him much better. Two home runs for Jennings. Too bad nobody else showed up for the offense.
THE BAD: Joe Maddon. Hey, you want to stick with your guys on the postseason roster even if they struggled. That’s cool. But the Rays never show loyalty to relief pitchers. So Joe Maddon’s loyalty to JP Howell is perplexing. Did we really need to see Howell in a 1-run game with the bases loaded and Josh Hamilton at the plate? Maddon has now gone from walking Hamilton with the bases loaded during the regular season to giving him a BP pitcher in the playoffs…The Offense. No baserunners in the first 3 innings. Only 3 baserunners in the first 6 innings. Yeah. That’s not going to win too many playoff games. The Red Sox aren’t around now to help. The Rays gotta figure out a way to win this thing on their own…Evan Longoria. It is not too often that Longoria doesn’t show up. He didn’t show up last night. He went 0-3 with 3 strikeouts. And after the third strikeout, he even showed a bit of frustration, throwing the bat. And if BJ Upton is not caught stealing in the 8th, Longoria might have struck out again. Once Upton was off the bases, the Rangers pitched around Longo and gave him first base.
THE TELLING: In the 8 postseason matchups between these two teams, the home team is now 1-7…Kyle Farnsworth was available last night and even warmed up at one point. But he never got into the game.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
Oct 01
- Rays 9, Rangers 0 (Rays lead 1-0)
The GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
THE GOOD: Return To Dominance. In the last 16 innings, the Rays have outscored the opposition 17-0. Over that span, Rays pitchers have allowed only 4 hits and 4 walks. And offensively, the Rays are getting hits when it matters, going 5-19 with runners in scoring position. That’s only.263, but it is a hell of a lot better than where they’ve been…Matt Moore. There will be a lot of screaming and yelling and diarrhea next spring when this guy starts the season in triple-A because “he needs more seasoning,” which is code for “arbitration clock.” In his first big league start he throws 5 shutout innings in Replica Yankee Stadium, striking out 11. His second big league start just happens to be game 1 of the ALDS and he tosses 7 shutout innings, giving up just 2 hits, 2 walks, and striking out 6. Yeah, this kid is pretty good…Kelly Shoppach. Piñata Power! Shoppach is having a pretty decent month of September, which also happens to coincide with when he became the most-days starter. Shoppach closed his eyes and swung real hard, hitting 2 home runs. He now has 6 since the month began…Joe Maddon. Let’s see. He puts a kid on the mound with one career start. Matt Moore responds with 7 shutout innings. He puts Matt Joyce in right field against a lefty. He responds with an RBI-single in his first at bat. And he had Sean Rodriguez in the leadoff spot for just the third time this season. he went 0-5, but it just shows that Maddon is not a big believer in “stick with what got us here.” The result was a 9-0 blowout. And this was the game the Rangers had to have. It was at home with their ace on the hill. The Rays were due for a supposed emotional letdown. And the Rays have the pitching advantage the next two games. This game was bonus.
THE BAD: Not today. Nope, not gonna do it.
THE TELLING: Desmond Jennings was dropped to 8th in the lineup due to his recent slump…The Rays playoff game on Monday will be shown on the jumbotron at Raymond James stadium prior to the Bucs game on Monday.
RANDOM THOUGHTS: If we could pick one song to sum up the 2011 Rays, it would be “Hakuna Matata.” It doesn’t matter what the situation, this team just doesn’t worry.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- St. Pete will hold a rally on Monday prior to game 3. [TampaBay.com]
- Joe Maddon confirmed that Jeff Niemann is not 100%. [TampaBay.com]
- Casey Kotchman’s note to his teammates: “We’re not supposed to be here, so we might just be dumb enough to win this whole thing.” [TampaBay.com]
- Joe Maddon offered his Read the rest of this entry »
Sep 30
The Rays announced their roster for the ALDS and there are some surprises. In the bullpen, Joe Maddon kept Wade Davis instead of Jeff Niemann. Not the biggest upset ever, but Niemann has proven that he can be dominant in short relief stints. It is possible that Niemann is not healthy.
Also, Maddon chose to go with three catchers, keeping Jose Lobaton. This leaves a big question mark in right field versus lefty starters, something the Rangers will use in three or four of the games in this series.
Without Brandon Guyer or Justin Ruggiano, it would seem that Ben Zobrist will be in right field versus lefties, even though he hasn’t started a game there in over a month. And if Zobrist is in right field, who is at second base? Sean Rodriguez is the obvious answer. But that means Elliot Johnson is the Rays starting shortstop. Yay?
Another possibility is that Zobrist stays at second base, and either Sam Fuld or Matt Joyce is in right field against the lefties. But that seems unlikely.
