Mar 16
Spring hitting statistics are fun to track, but often mean little or nothing, even when a player is battling for a position. So then how can we get an idea of which players may have an edge for a starting job or a roster spot?
To get a better idea of who is winning the battle for a job, we can look at which players are playing the key positions during high-leverage innings. During the regular season that would be innings 7, 8 and 9. But during spring training, innings 1-5 are the key innings as that is when a player will face other big leaguers.
This spring, the Rays face only a couple of questions with respect to the opening day roster. So let’s take a look at who is seeing the most playing time at those positions during the high-leverage innings…
- Ben Zobrist is expected to see playing time at both second base and right field. But during the spring, Zobrist has played 29 innings at second base and only 4 in right field. Either Joe Maddon thinks he needs more time at second base to get ready for the regular season, or Maddon is preparing to use Zobrist as the most-days second baseman.
- Many think Sean Rodriguez is going to be the other half of the second base platoon based on his spring power surge. But as we can see, Reid Brignac has played almost twice as many innings at second base as Rodriguez.
- If there really is a battle to be the second second baseman, we would expect to see a more even split of playing time between Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez. And we would also expect to see those two players receive much more time at the position than Ben Zobrist.
- SUMMARY: These numbers suggest that Joe Maddon is leaning towards using Reid Brignac as Ben Zobrist’s platoon partner and Sean Rodriguez will be used as the “super-utility” player, seeing only occasional playing time at second base.
- Matt Joyce’s recent injury has clouded this picture. Still, we can see that Joe Maddon is giving Joyce every opportunity to prove he is ready to be a big league right fielder.
- At this point in Gabe Kapler’s career, we know what he is. There is no mystery and he is just getting ready for the regular season.
- The surprising number here is the number of innings that Ben Zobrist has played in right field: 4 (1 start). Does Zobrist not need any playing time in right field to prepare for the regular season, or will his playing time there be minimal to start the regular season?
- SUMMARY: This is all about Matt Joyce. He will continue to receive plenty of playing time once he can get back on the field.
- Here, we just looked at relief pitchers that have seen playing time in the first 5 innings. We did not include Andy Sonnanstine even though in theory he is one of the leading candidates for the final bullpen spot.
- Joaquin Benoit is likely the leading candidate for the final bullpen spot and the mound time during high-leverage innings supports that notion. Still, his spot on the opening day roster will depend on his ability to work back-to-back games.
- SUMMARY: If Joaquin Benoit can go back-to-back games, the final spot will be his. If not, it could be Andy Sonnanstine. But we still wonder if Sonny is more likely headed back to Durham to be the Rays 6th starter. If both Benoit and Sonnanstine are off the roster, the final spot could be an open battle between the likes of Jeff Bennett, Dale Thayer and Joe Bateman (see comments).
Mar 15
Every team goes through “Picture Day” during spring training where all the players and coaches get all dolled up in their regular season uniforms and have their pictures taken by the professionals. Here is a link to Getty’s pics of the Rays.
But before you go look at the entire set, let us point out a few of our favorites…
Pat Burrell
Why does Pat Burrell have such a sly grin on his face and why is he touching his crotch with both hands? Maybe it is because the photographer told Pat to grab his bat. Maybe it is because it is the only bat of Pat’s that still works. Or maybe this is the secret behind the nickname, “Pat the Bat.” We vote for “all of the above.”
Gabe Kapler
Is there a reason Gabe Kapler doesn’t have his jersey tucked in? Maybe it is because he is lazy. But more likely it is because the photographer is right-handed.
Dave Martinez -- Derek Shelton -- Tom Foley
Inability to dress one’s self is apparently not limited to Kapler.
Don Zimmer
Look! It’s the mascot. How cute.
- Evan Longoria
At least Dirtbag knows how to dress himself.
Mar 11
Yesterday, Joe Maddon indicated that Ben Zobrist will likely start the season platooning in both right field and at second base. Let’s take a look at what that means for the rest of the players competing for roster spots and playing time…
Notes on the 25-man roster projection…
If Gabe Kapler is on the opening day roster…
- RIGHT FIELD: Up until now, we have just assumed Gabe Kapler is on the opening day roster. If true, he will start versus lefties and Ben Zobrist starts versus righties.
- SECOND BASE: If Kapler is on the team Zobrist plays RF versus righties and 2B versus lefties. That leaves either Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac to play 2B versus righties. For their careers, Rodriguez is stronger versus lefties (.940 vs .881 OPS) and Brignac has been stronger facing righties (.778 vs .638). But Rodriguez’ mark versus RHP (.881) is still stronger than Brignac’s (.778). Brignac is considered the better defender. But Rodriguez has impressed with the glove so far this spring. Therefore, we give Rodriguez the edge.
- BENCH: If Sean Rodriguez is platooning at 2B and backing up the outfield, it would seem that Joe Maddon would want to also keep Reid Brignac as the back-up middle infielder. Also, if Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler are playing right field, there is no need for Matt Joyce.
- SUMMARY: If Gabe Kapler’s job is a lock and Ben Zobrist is platooning in RF and at 2B, that means Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac make the team and Matt Joyce is back in Durham. And spring training is a competition between Rodriguez and Brignac for a portion of the 2B job.
If Matt Joyce is on the opening day roster…
- RIGHT FIELD: If the Rays decide to keep Matt Joyce on the roster, there is likely no room for Gabe Kapler as the Rays would already have 2 guys playing right field and Sean Rodriguez who can back-up in the outfield. And if Joyce is on the roster, he starts in RF versus righties and Ben Zobrist is in RF versus lefties.
- SECOND BASE: If Ben Zobrist is in RF versus lefties, he will start at 2B versus righties. That leaves Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac to start at 2B versus lefties. And that is a no-brainer. Rodriguez’ career OPS versus LHP (.940) dwarfs Brignac’s (.638).
- BENCH: Again, with Ben Zobrist in RF part-time, there doesn’t seem to be a good reason to keep both Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler, so if Joyce is in, Kapler is out and the Rays will have to either eat his $1 million salary, or find a trade partner. That opens the final spot for Reid Brignac as the backup middle infielder.
- SUMMARY: If Matt Joyce is on the team, he platoons in RF with Ben Zobrist, and Sean Rodriguez platoons with Zobrist at 2B. Reid Brignac would get the final bench spot and Gabe Kapler is filing his unemployment papers.
Ultimately it looks like both Rodriguez and Brignac will make the team and the final spot will be between Kapler ad Joyce. Obviously Kapler has a huge edge as his contract is guaranteed, but it’s not like he is making Pat Burrell-money.
Jan 26
Ken Rosenthal has a new piece on how Mark McGwire “needs a do-over.”
His apology was not enough. His tearful interview with Bob Costas on MLB Network was not enough.
We couldn’t agree more. In fact, if McGwire really wants people to believe that steroids did not help him hit home runs, he need only look at the roster of the Tampa Bay Rays and one muscular member of The Tribe.
- GABE KAPLER
18 and 80. Those are Gabe Kapler’s career-high in home runs (1999) and the number of home runs he has hit in his 11-year career. And those are the only numbers McGwire needs to know if he wants to convince people that he would have been just as good without steroids.
Now, we aren’t saying Kapler used ‘roids (we’ll let you look at the picture and draw your own conclusion). But if we were Mark McGwire, we would just carry this picture of Kapler with us everywhere we go. And next time somebody asks if he really believes steroids don’t help somebody hit home runs, he should pull out this picture and just say: “18 and 80, bitches!”
Nov 02
The Rays face an interesting dilemma the day after the World Series ends: What to do with Aki Iwamura’s $4.25 million option. While the amount is cheap for what Aki brings to the table, the Rays can find cheaper options in-house. And the Rays are a club where every million counts.
The Rays appear to have two options with Aki’s option (see what we did there!)
- Decline the option and move forward with some combination of Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac at second base.
- Pick up the option and try to trade Aki for a bullpen arm and/or prospects.
The downside to the second option is: a) Another team will know the Rays would be desperate to trade Aki, and if there isn’t a big market, they can hold out for next-to-nothing; b) What happens if the Rays cannot trade Aki? All of the sudden they are on the hook for $4.25 million with a player that might not have a position in 2010.
Of course, knowing the Rays, they will only pick up Aki’s option if they already have some assurance from another club that a trade is doable. The benefit to the other club is that the $4.25 million option is probably less than they would have to pay for Iwamura on the open market.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Chris Richard was removed from the 40-man roster. He has the option of choosing free agency over a demotion to Durham.
- Carl Crawford won the Fielding Bible Award for being the top defensive left fielder. Of course, being named the best defensive left fielder is kinda like being named the best-looking Pug. There is a reason Gold Glove awards don’t differentiate among outfield positions. [The Heater]
- Among several other items from Marc Topkin, we learn that Gabe Kapler “fits several needs” for the Rays even if he is just a 5th outfielder and Dave Martinez talked to the Indians about their managerial position. [St. Pete Times]
- Dock of the Rays discusses Aki Iwamura’s option. [Dock of the Rays]
- According to one metric, Matt Joyce was the 4th best defensive right fielder in the minors this past season. [The Hardball Times]
Oct 27
The Rays announced today (via press release) that they have re-signed Gabe Kapler to a one-year deal. The deal is a major league contract for $1.05 million. He made $1.0 million last season.
Kapler, who turned 34 in August, hit .239-8-32 with a 98 OPS+ and .334 wOBA as the Rays primary right fielder against left-handed pitchers.
With Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce in the mix to play right field, this move is a bit surprising. Does this mean the Rays are leaning towards using Zobrist as the most-days second baseman and a Joyce-Kapler platoon in right? Or is this just insurance in case either Joyce or Sean Rodriguez are not ready to be major leaguers? If the Rays are still leaning towards Zorilla and Joyce in right field, Kapler would be relegated to 5th outfielder. It is hard to imagine that Kapler would have signed so quickly without some assurance that he will compete for regular playing time.
Sep 18
Baseball Prospectus caught up with Fernando Perez and Gabe Kapler for an interview. Or did Perez interviewed Kapler? Or Kapler interviewed Perez. Or! Perez and Kapler interviewed Perez and Kapler! Our head just exploded. [Baseball Prospectus]
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/sep/18/wake–call-12-games-will-haunt-2009-rays/sports-rays/
Aug 27
The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: Gabe Kapler. Kapler hit a home run last night that put the Rays up 2-0. It was nice to hear from him, we had forgotten he was still in the league. It was his first HR since the stretch in June when he homered in 4 straight starts. And prior to last night he had only 1 RBI since the all-star break.
THE BAD: Another Getaway Day Disaster. The Rays are now 4-15 in the final game of the last 19 road series and 23-21 in all other road games. And once again the offense took a while to wake up, not getting their first hit until 2 outs in the 6th…JP Howell. In his last 6 save opportunities, Howell has blown 3.
THE TELLING: The Rays now trail the Red Sox by 4 games in the Wild Card, but remain 1.5 behind the Rangers.
SUNBURST PLAYER OF THE GAME: Scott Kazmir
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Way back in February we learned that before signing Pat Burrell, the Rays offered Bobby Abreu a one-year deal for $7.5 million. Now Lee Jenkins of SI.com spoke with Abreu and Jenkins says it was a two-year deal for about $16 million. We are splitting hairs here, but maybe the second year was an option? That might make both reports kinda correct. By the way, Abreu eventually signed for 1-year and $5 million. He is hitting .307-12-84 with 26 stolen bases and plays defense. Just sayin’(thanks Tyler). [SI.com]
- Last night was a rough one for umpires. [St. Pete Times]
- Carl Crawford’s back was feeling much better yesterday and he still hopes to play Friday. [Tampa Tribune]
- John Romano wonders aloud if the pressure of being the closer is getting to JP Howell. He has not been the same since giving up the game-winning home run in Seattle. [The Point After]
- Rays the Stakes takes a closer look at Carlos Pena’s recent surge. [Rays the Stakes]
- Minor Leaguer Darin Downs, who suffered a fractured skull after being hit by a line drive has been released from the hospital. [Rays Report]
Jun 17
Time to bring back the GBT – The Good, The Bad and The Telling sandwich, where The Bad is nice and lean and the The Telling is ripe.
click above image for boxscore
THE GOOD: Jason Bartlett. Good to see Bartlett back in the lineup and picking up right where he left off with 2 hits and 2 runs scored…Coors Field. The highest scoring team in baseball plus Coors Field equals a fun game to watch…Bottom of the Order. The Rays 5-8 hitters were a combined 10-18 with 7 RBI and 8 runs scored…Jeff Niemann. Coors Field can be intimidating for any pitcher, especially a youngin’. But Niemann kept his cool and threw strikes, 64 out of 96 pitches. We would have liked just a little more pitch efficiency, but all-in-all he did his job.
THE BAD: Oh BJ. We would be remiss if we did not point out that BJ Upton was picked off first base. Again…Pat the No Glove, No Wheels. There are indications that Joe Maddon will start Pat Burrell in right field tonight. Coors Field has the largest outfield in baseball, so there is no way this ends well. Look for BJ Upton to be playing right-center most of the game.
THE TELLING: The Rays set a team record with 11 extra-base hits…With no DH, Ben Zobrist was still in the 5th spot and Jason Bartlett batted 6th…According to CoolStandings.com the Rays are up to a 46.7% chance of making the playoffs, only slightly behind the Yankees (49.7%). Baseball Prospectus is not as bullish, with the Rays at 27.0% and the Yankees at 77.8%…
SUNBURST PLAYER OF THE GAME: Gabe Kapler. We can’t believe it either, but his triple in the second started the onslaught and his home run in the 3rd effectively ended the game.
DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…
- Head on over and welcome a new Rays blog, The Rays Tank. [The Rays Tank]
- The Rays wives and their families will be hosting a Family Fun Day for military families on June 27. Click the link for information (thanks Jordi). [Quantum Leap Farm]
- The Rays dressed in cowboy gear on their off-day travel to Colorado yesterday. Marc Topkin has the team photo. It is trashtastic. [The Heater] FSFlorida/Sun Sports has some of the individual pics on their Facebook page. [Facebook]
- Scott Kazmir visited Dr. James Andrews recently for a biomechanical analysis of his delivery. Kazmir also had former Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson analyze the delivery…From the same piece we learn that Chad Bradford is about a week from returning, and the Rays new emergency catcher may be Joe Dillon. [St. Pete Times]
- Well, we can scratch the idea of adding a retractable roof to The Trop. The task would cost $471 million and according to the design firm hired by the Rays, the Trop would still only be a “B-, B+ type of baseball facility.” This link does include images of what the Trop would have looked like with a retractable roof. [St. Pete Times]
- Reader Amanda thinks she has discovered the source of Gabe Kapler’s power. He has a Star of David tattoo on his leg. [SI.com]
- The Rays are up to 3rd on Baseball Prospectus’ Power Rankings, behind only the Dodgers and the Red Sox and this was 4 wins ago. [Baseball Prospectus]
- One Red Sox blogger has written an open letter to Joe Maddon, hoping for Tim Wakefield to be selected to the All-Star game. [Boston Red Sox Blog Spot]
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