We don’t know much about this video other than it appears that David Price filmed himself playing basketball with some kids on what appears to be an 8-foot hoop.
And because we know somebody will ask, no, this is probably not a violation of his contract. The standard MLB contract does prohibit participation in sports “involving a substantial risk of personal injury.” And among the sports listed is “professional league basketball.” So pick-up games are kosher.
Last night was opening night for Jesuit High School and David Price was on hand to throw out the ceremonial first pitch. We were told that BJ Upton was also in attendance.
Price also spoke with the media and discussed his decision to attend college rather than turn pro after high school.
Perfect games! Five 20-game winners! Three Cy Young Awards!
OK, easy now. The Rays have a fantastic rotation. One of the best in the big leagues. But let’s see if we can come up with a more realistic idea of what to expect, who might improve, and who might actually take a step back.
To get a sense of just how good each pitcher has been, and where they might be headed, let’s use Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In short, FIP is what a pitcher’s ERA might have looked like if they had pitched all of their games in an average ballpark with an average defense. In the long run, FIP is a better indicator than ERA of how good a pitcher is, and how well they will pitch in the future.
Let’s take a look at the year-by-year FIPs for each of the Rays six starting pitchers. Red lines indicate when the pitcher was promoted to the big leagues (approximately).
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Don’t get too caught up in what FIP is versus ERA. Rather, look at: 1) how consistent is the pitcher from year to year, even from the minors to the majors; and 2) keep in mind that average in 2011 for AL starting pitchers was about 4.08. Notes and thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the above charts…
James Shields has been incredibly consistent. However, his 2011 numbers were clearly below his typical season. Has he figured something out? Or is he due for a bit of a letdown in 2012?
Jeff Niemann has also been very consistent
Jury is still out on David Price, but the last two seasons were nearly identical. If he can keep that up, he will be the ace we all want.
Right now, Wade Davis looks like the weak link. Two straight seasons with an FIP over 4.60 is not a good sign for things to come. So, if you could choose which starter to trade, it might be better to keep Niemann and move Davis, unless you are concerned about Niemann breaking down.
Jeremy Hellickson’s 2011 season is a concern. Both David Price and Wade Davis showed similar jumps in FIP in their first full big league seasons. However, Price saw his FIP improve dramatically the following year, and Davis did not. Which one will Hellboy be in 2012?
Matt Moore? Well, Moore is awesome. None of the other pitchers had a minor league career as good as Moore’s. Of course, he needs to prove it in the big leagues, but even if his FIP jumps, he will still be very good.
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (still weird typing that), the Rays have successfully avoided arbitration with one-year deals for David Price, BJ Upton, and Burke Badenhop. No deal was reached with Jeff Niemann, who will now have his 2012 salary determined by an arbitrator.
Price’s 2012 salary will be $4.35 million. He made $1.25 million in 2011 as the fifth year of the six-year deal he signed after being drafted. However, Price had the option to opt-out of the final year of that deal as a result of being arbitration eligible.
Upton’s 2012 salary will be $7 million. He made $4.8 million in 2011.
Badenhop, who was recently acquired from the Marlins in a trade earlier this off-season, will make $1.075 million.
This is good news for the Rays. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Price was projected to make $7.8 million in arbitration and Upton was projected at $7.6 million.
If the season started today, the 2012 payroll would be approximately $56.9 million, an increase of 38.4 percent over last season. This is based on raises already built into existing contracts, and projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players and players in their first three seasons.
Here is the breakdown of the projected payroll. Notes on the table, and additional thoughts can be found below…
Notes on the projected 40-man roster and payroll…
The Rays currently have 40 players on the 40-man roster. However, Justin Ruggiano is out of minor league options and we don’t see spots for him on the opening day roster unless somebody gets hurt.
Off-Season (click image for random Wikipedia page)
The Rays 2011 All-Stars, David Price, James Shields, and Matt Joyce, have been named the grand marshalls for the 2012 Gasparilla parade on January 28.
Speaking of Shields…Does anybody in baseball have a more intimidating ass? If we were on first base when Shields went into his stretch, we’d be scared.
Just sayin’.
THE JUNKYARD DOGS WEBTOPIA…
The A’s are the latest team to show interest in Johnny Damon. [MLBTR]
Dioner Navarro has signed a minor league deal with the Reds.
USA Today says the Yankees rotation “not necessarily beast of AL East.” Maybe we are biased, but we think they didn’t need the word “necessarily.” [USA Today]
One of the biggest concerns with young starting pitchers is their workload and easing them into a 200-ip season. The Rays typically prefer to limit their starters to a 20 percent increase in innings from one season to the next. If a pitcher exceeds that mark, they could be at a higher risk for injury or just a tired arm in the next season.
Last year, we saw the red flag with David Price, whose 221.1 innings pitches in 2010 was a 36.1 percent increase over the 2009 season. And while Price’s FIP improved from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2011, his ERA ballooned from 2.72 in 2010 to 3.49 last year. Was he just unlucky? Maybe. But Price also showed that at times last year, he tired late in games.
So let’s take a look at how much the pitcher’s were used in 2011 and if there are any red flags…
Maybe the most important thing we see in this table is that the Rays big-6 starting pitchers (David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore) are all free to throw Read the rest of this entry »
If you have been hanging around these parts for a while, you know that the model for this site is to tell you what the Rays have done, what they are doing and try to project what they will do based on what we have learned. Think of RI as “Tampa Bay Rays 101.”
However, for the next 12 days we will step away from the standard, and we present to you 12 “presents” the Tampa Bay Rays should give to their fans. Looking back at last year’s 12 Days of Raysmas, we see that many of our wishes came true. Many did not. If we can get a couple of more this year, the Rays might just win it all.
Without further ado…
On the fifth day of Raysmas, the Tampa Bay Rays gave to us, A FIVE-YEAR EXTENSION FOR DAVID PRICE…
Price still has four years remaining until he is a free agent. But thanks to his Super-2 status, he’ll get a crack at arbitration in each of those seasons. And that means a lot of money for King David.
“Not only is that inaccurate and delusional, but it seems that some people have gotten into their New Year’s Eve stash just a little bit early this year…It appears some baseball people are just bored…That’s when you hear ideas like that floated.”
Buster Olney calls the Rays rotation the second best in the baseball. [ESPN]
The Rays final game of the regular season was called one of the “Best Games/Events of 2011″ by SI.com. Derek Jeter’s 3000th hit (off of David Price) also makes the list. [SI.com]
Ben Zobrist’s big double-header in April (7-10, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI) was picked as the “Performance of the Year” by David Schoenfield of ESPN.com. [ESPN]
“At a recent charity event hosted by Rays manager Joe Maddon, Stephanie Katz approached David Price and James Shields about filming a short video, knowing the pair had previously been involved with the Fan Cave…they happily obliged.” Check out the video at Business Insider. [BI SPORTS]
