Welp, this should shake a few feathers. Baseball Prospectus has released their first PECOTA projections for the 2016 season and the Rays are projected to win the AL East.

The PECOTA model projects how every player will perform this season based on their own history, their age, and how similar players have performed in the past. The model then simulates the entire season thousands of times. Based on those simulations, the Rays win an average of 91 games, three games better than the next-best team in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox.

Here are the projected standings:

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It is worth noting that the math models always seem to like the Rays, which shouldn’t be surprising since the models tend to favor many of the same factors that the Rays use to build a team.

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10 Comments

  1. Charles says:

    Seems to be pretty much all about run prevention for this projection. The RA number would mean the Rays allow an average of around 3.8 runs per game, which would have been top 5 last season.

    Also has them scoring 4.4 per game though, which is nearly half a run better than last season for them, and I don't look at the offensive additions & see that half run, honestly.

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    • Geoff Peterson says:

      The addition of Dickerson and some improvement from Kiermaier in OBP will drive a lot of this. Dickerson may not get the HRs here that he got in Denver but he's a line drive and gap hitter that gets on base. With these 2 at the top of the order getting on and causing havoc on the basepaths, the table will be set for the 3-6 hitters to do a lot of damage. It still would be nice to see them deal Desmond and/or Loney for an upgrade at catcher or a set up guy.

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      • Political_Man says:

        It's a little much to expect the Outlaw to be an effective or even average leadoff hitter. If KK were a slightly below average lead off or 2 hole hitter with the defense he throws up he'd be a 7 war player.

        I'd settle for Dreamy McHussle being an effective AL 7 hole hitter. Lineup constriction is certainly going to be interesting this season.

        Go Rays!

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        • Geoff Peterson says:

          IMO he has all the tools of the great leadoff hitters with the exception of patience. A combination of bunting, slap hitting, and hitting to the opposite field would work wonders if they work with him. He's still young in terms of MLB ABs and experience will help him too. I'd put him in front of hours and hours of film of Jeter and Ichiro and say "Do that"

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          • Political_Man says:

            Love your enthusiasm but he's going to have to strike out less and walk A LOT more to be a leadoff hitter.

            I love the guy but depends on how the roster shakes out there arw going to be at least 2 or 3 better suited to lead off against RH pitching.

            Look, let's let the Outlaw do outlaw things and pray he's an average hitter. That will make him one of the 5 most valuable OF in the game (again.)

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      • Mr. Smith 1980 says:

        Is it crazy to believe Souza will also contribute to improved run scoring?

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  2. woodrow744 says:

    I was hoping this popular model might be Kate Upton.

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  3. Gus says:

    Hard to imagine a universe where the Rays outslug the Yankees given their payrolls and their ballparks, but sign me up to live in that universe you fine folks at Baseball Prospectus.

    It is still early, but I have to say I like the way the post-Friedman Rays approach things better than the Friedman-Maddon regime. Less rigid, more pragmatic, not afraid to try and get better this season.

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  4. mep645 says:

    Souza seems to have been forgotten after his injury. He was on his way to overtaking Longo in HR. He was a top AAA play and should have a good year if no injuries.We have a great outfield. All players need a better OBP. Will Longo show improvement? Will Forsythe play well again? This should be fun!

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