After being swept by the A’s over the weekend, the Rays fell to 5.5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East and have almost no chance of winning the division.

But the Orioles are not playing much better and the Rays still have a 3-game lead over Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot. The Indians and the Yankees are just a half-game behind the Orioles.

Still, a 3-game lead with just 27 games remaining is a lot bigger than it sounds. As a result, the Rays still have a 61.5% chance to make the playoffs. Of that, they have a 55.1% chance of being a Wild Card team and a 6.4% chance of winning the division according to

Meanwhile, the Yankees, who would have to pass three teams in the final month, have just a 10.1% chance of making the playoffs at all…




  1. Ken says:

    The way the Rays are playing right now, coupled with the fact that they have 7 more tough West Coast games, makes me doubt the validity of this prediction.
    Look at the remaining schedules of the Rays, O's Yanks, and Indians.
    The Indians have by far the easiest schedule. How the White Sox play will heavily influence the second wild card team as they play a bunch of games against all those teams mentioned but us.
    The Rays can distance themselves from the pack this week by winning at least 5 of the next seven games. Will they? I don't know.
    My predication: the Indians slide into the second spot based on their schedule while the Rays, O's and Yanks beat up on each other.

    • Drew says:

      fangraphs just came out with projected rest of season records:
      and here is a link explaining each projection:

  2. Rome says:

    Easy easy. It's not like the Rays are getting killed over the last few games, with exception of the Royals game. They are playing tough, just the bounces aren't coming there way. The Rays are doing what you want, they are getting guys on base. They are just not getting them in. The pitching is doing the job, for the most part, and keeping the Rays in the games. Tough stretch.

    • Ken says:

      Agree with all you said Rome, I just don't have a peaceful, easy feeling right now. If we win the rest of the series' we play we're in, nuff said.

  3. Dave L says:

    Outlooks always seem bright during win streaks and bleak during these stretches.

    I'm just happy to be in the hunt. With our payroll restrictions thats all I can ask for. Meaningful games in Sept. Its every baseball fans' dream and I have been around some hopeless Septembers and they are the TRUE bleak times

    • Sarah says:

      I always say that a team playing meaningful games in September is by my definition a successful team.

      I must add, however, that a team losing every single one of those meaningful games in September is a tad hard to watch. Here's hoping things turn around quickly.

  4. ajo says:

    The Rays are done. All these losses out west coupled with losing 2 out of 3 when Boston comes in and all 3 at Yankees spells finished.


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