Playing A Little Pepper

Only 15% of the players drafted in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft have reached the majors. That number doubles to 30% for the 2009 draft and will eventually peak at 60-65%. In other words, only about 1 in 6 players drafted in first 2 rounds this year will be in the majors by the middle of the 2016 season. And only half of the players that will make it all will be in the majors by 2017. The other half of the players that do make it will take longer than four years. So the lesson is that it is not good that the Rays haven’t seen any kids from the 2009 or 2010 draft reach the majors yet. But it is not horrible either. The problem is that none of them seem close. The other lesson is that maybe we should temper our excitement about this year’s draft. It’s like getting excited about a birthday present and then being told you can’t actually use it for 4-6 years.

Game Graph

[Will be up at game time]

Source: FanGraphs


  1. Matt Joyce, RF
  2. Ben Zobrist, 2B
  3. Kelly Johnson, LF
  4. Evan Longoria, 3B
  5. James Loney, 1B
  6. Flash Jennings, CF
  7. Luke Scott, DH
  8. Jose Molina, C
  9. Yunel Escobar, SS
  10. Chris Archer, SP




  1. JJ says:

    Colome starting? What happened to Archer?

  2. Ted Sheckler says:

    It's a little misleading to say "it is not good that the Rays haven’t seen any kids from the 2009 or 2010 draft reach the majors yet". Derek Dietrich (2010 2nd round) is in the majors right now. He's not with the Rays, but they acquired Yunel Escobar for him. Ryan Roberts was also acquired straight up for Tyler Bortnick (2009 16th round). Bortnick is still in AAA, but Roberts isn't. It's not like the Rays haven't seen any returns from their 2009 and 2010 drafts, but you make it sound like they haven't because the players they drafted were traded for major league players.


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