In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have released “The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout.”

Here’s how it works…

RLYW uses five different projections systems. These systems (CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, Steamer, ZiPS) predict what the stats of every player will look like based on things like past performance, age, experience, etc. RLYW then simulated the 2013 season thousands of times using each of these projected stats systems.

Here are the results. Actual stats from the 2007-12 seasons (in grey) are included for comparison. Notes on the results can be found below (see notes below for explanation of abbreviations in table)…

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Notes on the table…

  • RF=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed, DIV=how often during simulations the Rays won the division, WC=how often the Rays were a Wild Card team, Playoffs=how often the Rays made the playoffs, StD Wins=Range of wins within 1 standard deviation during simulations
  • Each of the last three years, the CAIRO system came the closest to predicting the Rays’ actual number of wins. Last year CAIRO missed by a single win, predicting 91 wins for the 90-win Rays.
  • I have never seen so much agreement among the projection systems. Typically, there is about a 5-6 win difference between the highest and lowest projections. This year, each system projects either 88 or 89 wins. In three of the systems (CAIRO, Oliver, ZiPs) the Rays average finish is in  second place behind the Blue Jays by 1-3 games. In the Steamer system, the Rays and Jays both average 89 wins in the projection. And in the Marcel system, the Rays average 88 wins, two wins more than the Jays.
  • Offensively, all five systems project the Rays to improve. However, all five also say the Rays will take a step back with the pitching.
  • For what it’s worth, the Rays’ over/under for wins at Bovada.lv is 87.5.
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4 Comments

  1. Don says:

    Couldn't you just close you eyes and guess the Rays will win somewhere between 73 and 90 games...they didn't do alot work did they?
    Are they going to win 70...No..... are they going to win 95...no....
    Ok I will guess 85.239....am I close? Thats under the 87, let me know if I win..

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  2. Mr.Smith 1980 says:

    With projections that similar I'd say playing the over in Vegas isn't a bad idea. The only thing the simulations can't account for is the injury bug; not just in regard to the Rays but their entire division. I'd be interested to see if the simulations included all of NY's injured senior citizens?
    Also, when you've got several top of the line prospects shooting up the pipeline that leaves plenty of room for unknowns, but I LOVE these annual projections warts and all.

    88 W's and a trip to the WC round...I'll take it!
    A trip to the playoffs is all you need, whether it takes 85 or 95 wins to get there is irrelevant- get to the dance and then figure out how to do the funky chicken.

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  3. Dave L says:

    Historically speaking, dream teams like the Jays cobbled together in the offseason take time to jell and some never do. Such teams have no natural cohesion to overcome adversity. Count me as skeptical that they take the division.

    With an abundance of SP I feel a healthy Longo is the key to 90 wins and a late season Myers power injection key to even more.

    At the pessimistic end. Extended injury time to key bats and we are battling for 3rd in September.

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    • Mr.Smith 1980 says:

      It's true. A few things fall in to place and they're serious WS contenders but a few key injuries or disappointing offensive slumps and they could struggle to reach 80 W's... should be a fun year, and I'm an eternal optimist so I'm on the side of the fence that says they'll contend in October (the same side of the fence upon which each of Longoria's forthcoming 32 HR's will be landing).

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