In one of our favorite preseason posts, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, have released “The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout.”
Here’s how it works…
RLYW uses five different projections systems. These systems (CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, Steamer, ZiPS) predict what the stats of every player will look like based on things like past performance, age, experience, etc. RLYW then simulated the 2013 season thousands of times using each of these projected stats systems.
Here are the results. Actual stats from the 2007-12 seasons (in grey) are included for comparison. Notes on the results can be found below (see notes below for explanation of abbreviations in table)…
Notes on the table…
- RF=Runs Scored, RA=Runs Allowed, DIV=how often during simulations the Rays won the division, WC=how often the Rays were a Wild Card team, Playoffs=how often the Rays made the playoffs, StD Wins=Range of wins within 1 standard deviation during simulations
- Each of the last three years, the CAIRO system came the closest to predicting the Rays’ actual number of wins. Last year CAIRO missed by a single win, predicting 91 wins for the 90-win Rays.
- I have never seen so much agreement among the projection systems. Typically, there is about a 5-6 win difference between the highest and lowest projections. This year, each system projects either 88 or 89 wins. In three of the systems (CAIRO, Oliver, ZiPs) the Rays average finish is in second place behind the Blue Jays by 1-3 games. In the Steamer system, the Rays and Jays both average 89 wins in the projection. And in the Marcel system, the Rays average 88 wins, two wins more than the Jays.
- Offensively, all five systems project the Rays to improve. However, all five also say the Rays will take a step back with the pitching.
- For what it’s worth, the Rays’ over/under for wins at Bovada.lv is 87.5.