uspw_6591978Keith Law of ESPN.com went on ESPN Radio in Dallas and said if he were running the Rangers, he would only trade shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar for David Price if the Rays threw in more pieces (via ESPNDallas.com).

The argument is that six years of a shortstop, whom Law ranks as the top prospect in baseball, is more valuable than three years of one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. Of course, Law is always a pro-prospects guy so his slant is not surprising. But the thought of Price-for-Profar is an intriguing one.

Profar will turn 20 later this month. And in double-A last season he hit .281 with 14 home runs, 16 stolen bases, a .368 OBP, and an impressive 79-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But maybe the most important stat is salary.

Profar will make approximately $1.5 million total over the next three seasons. Price, the reigning Cy Young winner, will make $10.1 million this season alone. And it is not unreasonable to think Price will make $40-45 million over the next three seasons in arbitration.

But what if the Rangers offered Profar for Price with the declaration that it is now or never? Obviously we all prefer to keep Price this season. And obviously, if you are the Rays, you would think long and hard about making this trade next off-season.

But no matter when Price is dealt, and no matter how good of a package the Rays receive, they won’t get a better player than Profar. And because of that, the Rays might have to make that trade.

 
 

27 Comments

  1. Sidearm Justice says:

    Straight up, no way? Rays give Texas more, ha no way, other way around. The Rays would be out of their minds to make a 1-for-1 deal. I would love to have Profar, but if Texas wants Price I can only assume that they would push very hard to lock him up long term especially after getting burned by Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson. Andrew Friedman most certainly will push for a 4-for-1 type deal for Price. In my mind, if Texas wants Price they need to offer up Profar, Olt, Perez and Ogando.

    • Brianknowsbest says:

      I agree, they would want an arm along with it. I would assume with similar quality of in which they got Odorizzi in the myers deal.

    • Brianknowsbest says:

      profar,myers,longoria for the next 6 years would ne nasty.

    • Dave L says:

      Agreed.

      I love the premise of these baseball insiders when speaking to local media (dallas) “if I were GM here is how I would rape the Rays”. Its comical.

      Profars value is slightly higher than Myers. Price value is double and possibly more what Sheilds, who has plateaud hopefully for KC, is worth– better, younger, cheaper still improving. Plus I would argue we got more in the chips of the young arms (high upside) for Wade Davis (solid but limited upside) as well.

  2. AJ says:

    The earliest the Rays trade Price will be at the trade deadline if the Rays are out of contention. Also, I’d prefer for the Rays to get more than just one prospect for Price.

  3. phil says:

    After 2013 they may have to so ..yes!

  4. Geoff Peterson says:

    I agree Profar, Olt, Ogando and Alfaro for Price, Lee and Colome might get it done for me though.

  5. Zach says:

    Let’s not get rid of the entire starting rotation.

  6. Gary says:

    I don’t know squat about the high tech math. Admit that right off, so please don’t get on me too hard. I find it hard to grasp the equation here though. I did a little research on Profar and compared his minor league career to that of Ben Zobrist. Granted, Profar’s peripherals on fielding may be somewhat better, not sure, but Zobrist appears the better hitter, and we now know what kind of major league hitter Zobrist has turned out to be as well as what kind of fielder and baserunner.

    It seems to me they are somewhat comparable and frankly, Zobrist is much much more of a sure thing now that we know what we know about his major league career thus far.

    So the question is, if the financials were similar, and Zobrist was at the same point in his career as Profar is now, and you knew what Zobrist would become, would you trade Price straight up for Zobrist? And of course, we don’t know what Profar’s major league career will end up being like. The answer to this would give a much better idea of how people are comparing the value of these two players. My point being that I doubt Profar will end up being a better player overall than Zobrist. Interested to learn what much more knowledgeable commenters have to say.

    • Mr Smith 1980 says:

      I’m not a Sabermetrics guy either so we’re cut from the same cloth.

      I agree with everything you said, to a point.

      You’re comparing a Zobrist who has reached his ceiling (or very near it) to a young prospect who’s upside is supposedly much higher than Zobrist’, so its not really an apples to apples comparison…

      just my unsolicited 2 cents.

    • Tom says:

      Yeah, to add to what Mr. Smith said: You are comparing what Zobrist did at the age of 25 to what Profar did at 19. Most player develop quite a bit over those next 6 years.

      • Gary says:

        This is related to what Mr. Smith says about reaching the ceiling. I grant you the age difference is supposed to mean something, but in this case I don’t think it is much. The Zobrist at age 25 had basically six years of being a “cheap” player. Profar at age 19 or 20 or whatever will also have six yeras of being a cheap player. The Rays will most likely not have the player after he ceases being “cheap”, so the actual age doesn’t seem like it should matter that much.

        The Rays have had Zobrist for what are probably his best years (maybe a few more to go). Profar, like Price, would be gone form the Rays by the time he reaches late twenties. So to me, what seems to be important is what they contribute to the team over the six year period the team has them, regardless of age.

        And I guess what I was asking in the previous post was why Profar is considered to have such a higher ceiling since I can’t see it from his minor league stats. What does seem to stand out a little is the homerun total over the last couple of seasons related to the walks and strikeouts but I don’t know about the hitter friendliness of the leagues he was in, etc. Just the stats themselves don’t show him as that great a hitter. I haven’t checked but I’d bet Shaun Rodriguez’ minor league batting stats are comparable and look where we are with him. I’ll go check and may end up with much egg on face.

  7. Joe says:

    Someone tell me again why he’s a higher rated hitter than Taverez and Myers?

    I will never trade Price in a 1 for 1 deal but I’d do it for Taverez way before Profar.

    Rangers would need to give Olt also and I am not a big fair of any of their pitchers so nevermind

    Mariners got Zunino and Hultzen….that might be too much actually so maybe Paxton. Basically I want studs at C and I want a LHP back. No way they throw in Franklin but I also want a SS.

    I would never take Profar straight up for Price and neither would Friedman

  8. Dave L says:

    We need to wait until Price gets to the point where he can earn his true market value. This year we are getting a $25M pitcher for $10M. If he pitches to the top 6 in the AL as expected. Next year we get a $25 -$28M pitcher for what? $15 to $17M? Still a bargain. in year three that is the time to look.

    His main super value is he is a lefty Ace. That is really really rare and he is much more difficult to replace than a righty. There will always be a market for Price. Baseball isnt like the economy. Its always going up and prospects are being developed every year.

  9. Gary says:

    And not too much egg on face re: Rodriguez who had a higher ba, higher slugging, way more hr per at bat. True, worse strikeout to walk ratio but higher on base %. So again, is there anyone who can explain exactly why Profar is considered such a great prospect, other than, of course, the age thing. But there are a pretty good number of players in the minors with his kind of offensive numbers, including some middle infielders or am I missing something. So is it the defense, the batting or just a good all around game or what that makes him so valuable?

    It just appears that there is such a high chance for failure or at least disappointment from Profar in the majors, based on his minor league stats.

    • Mr Smith 1980 says:

      You’re running in to the quandary that has had baseball pundits arguing and head-scratching over the value of prospects for decades- when the hype machine around a stud high school player (or college player, for that matter) starts to roll the name shoots up the list of best prospects, but then if while in low A or even higher their numbers aren’t backing up the hype then it becomes a matter of whether the prospect was over-hyped, has dealt poorly with fitting in to a different lifestyle, or if they still possess the ability to live up to being as good a prospect as advertised…

      To me, every single prospect is a crap-shoot. There are no homeruns (pardon the pun).

      This hype-machine double-take can be seen much more clearly in the NFL when goofs like Kiper decide to start hyping a player… suddenly they shoot up the draft boards and get drafted higher than they should have. Then when they don’t ever catch-on in the NFL they are suddenly viewed as a bust. Ultimately it was the hype that made them look bad not their poor performance– in actuality that player may never have had the skills necessary to live up to the lofty expectations the media had set us all up to believe they had…

      Perhaps, Profar is amazing, but at some point if the numbers don’t back-up his ranking as a prospect you have to wonder if people are just in love with his artificially hyped potential that may or may not ever be realized. Or his numbers could be hiding his ridiculously high ceiling and all the hype was accurate all along.

      Thus is the enigma of the prospect.

      • Tom says:

        In Profar’s case, though, his producton has been excellent. There are not many players who have put the numbers he has as a 19 YO in Double A.

  10. LaneMeyer says:

    If dealing with the Rangers, I’d much rather have a proven commodity like Andrus and then Olt and a few other players rather than paying a premium for Profar’s potential. We already know Andrus can hit, field, steal bases, etc.

  11. Daniel Bamber says:

    No way! I’d want Profar, Olt and more from the Rangers if they want the best pitcher in baseball. I can see the Rangers taking a similar approach to what the Royals did when trading Myers. The Rays said they wanted more than just Myers in the deal and the Royals counted that by saying if were going to give up more than Myers we want more than Shields in return. I’m sure the Rays didn’t want to give Davis up however it’s just the way the deal formed. I bet that we be the case in this deal, we’ll want more that Profar, they’ll want more than Price. Perhaps Price and Joyce for 4 prospects involving Profar and Olt?

  12. Don says:

    Miami still looking to unload Stanton, dangle Price and 4 utility players… we only have 64+/-, Rays offense set for years,still plenty of pitching….
    Friedman not that smart….somebody is going to get Stanton…watch..

  13. J 2.0 says:

    One thing that is being left out here is that Profar is going to play this season in the bigs. He’ll probably have a great year. So no, we will not have him for 6 years. With his progression he’ll likely be trade bait in 3 or 4. The Rays will only trade for prospects that haven’t made it to the bigs yet, with the hopes of either signing them to a deal before they make their debut, or atleast have 6 years of control. Waiting for Profar? Don’t hold your breath.

    • Dave L says:

      Exactly. When every bit of value has been squeezed out of David Price the Ray (12 to 24 months) he will be dealt for maybe one guy you had heard of but never saw, another guy whos name sounds familiar and 3 guys you never heard of which send us all scrambling to the baseball reference minors stats category search engine and the google.

      None will have spent as much as an at bat in the Bigs

      They will have a combined control years of a couple of decades.

      Study the Rays past and the future is easy to read. No use in hoping Santa Claus is coming down the chimney cause he ain’t.

    • Tom says:

      You and Dave are correct about the trade most likely not happening. I think Cork just threw this question out as a hypothetical and it does seems to have generated a good discussion.

  14. Dave says:

    You don’t do it because another team will offer ALOT more. Maybe 3 players who rank a B to B+ compared to Profar’s A.
    I’d take the quantity.

    • Mr. Smith 1980 says:

      Agreed. Say the Rays could get a 3 B’s and a few long-shots plus a PTBNL… statistically, their chances of finding a diamond in the rough and a serviceable major leaguer are better based on quantity alone. (Of course, this is the formula the Rays have tried to follow all along (with the exception of homegrown SP’s)).

      i.e. 2 Ben Zobrists and an SRod are more valuable than 1 Evan Longoria

  15. Paul Leaverton says:

    Straight up? No way. Profar’s record isn’t that impressive.

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