Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems uses a different set of projected stats and simulated the 2012 season “hundreds of thousands” of times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did…
The projection systems, when taken as a whole, predicted the Rays would win 89 games, which is pretty darn close to the actual 90 wins the Rays posted this season. And in about 59% of seasons, 90 wins would have been enough for a Wild Card, so the Rays were a little unlucky.
We can also look at how many runs the Rays scored and allowed in 2012. Based on those numbers, their Pythagorean record (which estimates how many games a team should win based on runs scored and allowed) was 95-67, again showing that luck just wasn’t on their side.
As for the projections, they all thought the Rays would score more runs, and none thought the Rays would pitch as well as they did. In fact, neither category was even close.