If you read “The Hangover” in the morning, you know that we occasionally reference the Rays’ playoff chances from CoolStandings.com. Basically, they look at how well a team is playing, as well as their remaining schedule, and simulate the remaining games millions of times to see how often that team makes the playoffs.

After last night’s win, the Rays are now have a 82.1% chance of making the playoffs. That is amazing considering the chances were just 16.3% on July 27, less than one month ago. Here’s how the playoffs hopes have changed throughout the season…

Of course it seems like we have seen the Rays make a similar surge in the past. Oh maybe LAST YEAR.

And here is how the Rays compare to the rest of the AL East…

In early June, all five teams were bunched together. But when the Yankees started to surge, the rest of the division fell off the pace as it looked like the two wild card spots would come from other divisions. But just when it looked like hope was fading, the Rays took off and separated the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, and the awkwardly feminine from the possibly Canadian.

On a related note, notice that the Orioles are still only at 20.9% despite being just two games behind the Rays and leading the second Wild Card spot. That’s because CoolStandings uses Win Expectancy which is based on how many runs a team scores and how many they give up. And the Orioles are the only team with a winning record that has been outscored this year. In other words, they are paper tiger.



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