This post, which will appear before every game, will include starting lineups (when we learn them) and during the game will include a Game Graph that will constantly update the percent chance the Rays have of winning this particular game.

Playing A Little Pepper

David Price picked up his league leading 16th win last night. He is also 2nd in ERA. Is he the favorite to win the Cy Young?

Well, according to ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor, which uses a formula based on voting in previous seasons, Price is the favorite to win the award. But one problem is that the voting has changed in recent years. Voters are no longer putting a lot of emphasis on wins and strikeouts and are starting to use stats like FIP. And the good news there is that Price’s 3.16 FIP is better than tonight’s opposing pitcher, Jered Weaver, who has a worse FIP (3.41) despite leading the league in ERA. Price is also averaging almost 2 Ks more per 9 innings than Weaver. And let’s not forget Justin Verlander (3rd ERA, 2nd FIP, 3rd K/9). His W-L record might scare some, but he is pitching just as well as anybody. Still, at this point, I’d say the edge does go to…DAVID PRICE

Game Graph

[Will be up at game time]

Source: FanGraphs

Lineup…

  1. Flash Jennings, LF
  2. BJ Upton, CF
  3. Matt Joyce, RF
  4. Evan Longoria, DH
  5. Ben Zobrist, SS
  6. Jeff Keppinger, 1B
  7. Sean Rodriguez, 3B
  8. Ryan Roberts, 2B
  9. Jose Molina, C
  10. James Shields, SP

Song to get you pumped up

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8 Comments

  1. Joe says:

    Price, Verlander, Felix, Weaver

    Man, give me any one of those in a must win game.

    It’s gonna be a tight race but there is some very good news.

    Pena is sitting on the bench tonight!

  2. MJ says:

    Keith Law did his awards as of today and his AL Cy Young was:
    1. Justin Verlander
    2. Felix Hernandez
    3. Jake Peavy
    4. CC Sabathia
    5. Chris Sale

    Hard to explain how Jake Peavy and CC make it and Price doesn’t, no matter how you slice it.

  3. Dave L says:

    Price and JV have had 2 more starts than Weaver after tonite. I think the workload aspect helps like when CC topped Price a couple of years ago. I think if you factored in what teams Price was rotated to face versus the others and his record against opposing Aces it would further his cause dramatically.

    The Rays can help his cause by tagging Weaver a little tonight.

    The CY will be won over the next 6 weeks i think its close and like you noted its a pure stat award now after Felix win.

  4. Sarah says:

    Well, he would now! Amazing what 9 earned runs in 3 innings will do to a guy’s ERA.

  5. Matt says:

    Challenge: Give an example where you can definitively point to FIP as the reason someone won the Cy Young? Give me a break. You clearly don’t even understand what you’re talking about. FIP is great for predicting future performance (xFIP is better, except for a few select pitchers), but it doesn’t take away from what the pitcher has done in a season up to a given point. Even if it did, you are over-estimating the intelligence of beat writers and other voters to understand that metric. Most beat writers are actually stupider than you, which is really saying something. The best example you can point to of voters moving away from traditional statistics is Felix’s W-L record in 2010, which is good, because it’s one of the most irrelevant stats in baseball, but it has nothing to do with advanced metrics.

    • Cork Gaines says:

      Seriosuly? 2009 Zack Greinke. Game. Set. Match. And it wasnt because the beat writers understood. It was because they received enough outside pressure to accept it and were afraid to look like an old curmudgeon that didnt understand. And thank you, I know the difference between FIP And xFIP. And the reason why it is the best indicator of future performance (you’ll want to take notes here) is because it is the best indicator of how the pitcher has been pitching, which is WHAT THE CY YOUNG AWARD SHOULD BE BASED ON. So. do yourself a favor and go be angry someplace else. There are websites for angry people. This isnt one of them.

      • Matt says:

        You’re telling me Greinke, despite a 2.16 ERA, won the 2009 Cy Young because of a 2.33 FIP? Oh please!

        • Cork Gaines says:

          Not specifically, no. But it had a lot to do with it. If you dont remember all of the Sabr arguments that year, you werent paying attention. Do you remember who finished second? King Felix, who also had a VERY strong ERA of 2.49 and led the league with 19 wins. And yet, the voting wasn’t even close. Greinke had 25 of the 28 first place votes. Why? Because those that knew a thing or two, pointed at (among other things) King Felix’ 3.09 FIP and Greinke’s 2.33 FIP as evidence that Greinke had a better year.

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