Back in Spring Training we took a look at several different projection systems and how the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays could be expected to perform. Each of the systems uses a different set of projected stats and simulated the 2011 season “hundreds of thousands” of times. Now let’s take a look back and see how they did.
Based on the Rays’ runs scored and runs allowed, their Pythagorean record was 91-71, showing that the Rays played as would be predicted based on their run differential. By comparison, the Yankees Pythagorean Record was 101-61, but they only won 97 games suggesting they were better than their record.
For the second straight season CAIRO proved to be the closest projection to the Rays actual win total. However, they were only slightly better than both Bill James and PECOTA.
All five of the systems projected the Rays to score more runs (didn’t we all). Of course, these projections assumed Manny Ramirez wouldn’t have been stupid enough to get caught juicing again. Also, all five projection systems predicted the Rays would allow more runs than they did.