If you are a Rays fan, you will want to see this chart of the 2011 season showing how the Rays chances of making the playoffs fluctuated throughout the year. [BUSINESS INSIDER]
What are your thoughts on these % just being wrong? As an example, there were times where the Rays were down to about a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. So that means that either we just lived through the 1-300 chance, or perhaps CoolStandings and the like aren’t as accurate as they think they are. If you were to run the math, it’s probably more likely the case the model is “wrong”.
But is a 1 in 300 chance really that far-fetched. Think about it. The last 300 times a team was down 9 games on September 2, how many of those made the playoffs? Actually it has never happened and there have been a lot more than 300 teams in MLB history that were down 9 games with a month to go. In the case of the Rays, there number was only that high because they had so many games left head-to-head.
Does Coolstandings still give us a chance to make the postseason?
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